ND FEB 16 19 SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone
State-Social + Capit-compet in Econ
ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know
it, they documented with graphics
"Like back in 2006, the only thing that mattered was you understood
there was a credit crisis coming. I think this time the only thing that really
matters is this problem with the corporate bond market and the national debt
issue when the next recession comes."
Read this:
Here's a quick rundown on Gundlach's comments on whether
markets are accurately forecasting the likelihood of a rate cut by the Fed this
year. [ Key concep: interest rate ]
Interest Rates:
Gundlach - whose Total Return fund outperformed
nearly all of its peers last year - believes that long-term rates will move
higher in 2019, though he admits that he didn't think the 30-year Treasury
would dip back below 3% in the latter half of 2018. But if the 30-year rate
crosses over 3.50%, it could go all the way to 4%.
Meanwhile, even if long-term rates climb, Gundlach believes short-term rates could move lower if
"they're manipulated by the Fed."
JULIA LA ROCHE: OK, Jeffrey, before we've
sent us back to New York, let's get a prediction from you. Where do you think
the 10 year will end this year?
JEFFREY GUNDLACH: I've
long ago learned not to fall into that trap. There was one year when I said the
10 year would end at x, and it actually ended five days before year end exactly
at x. And then there was a big move the last five days. And so, [? ended up
being ?] off by like, 35 basis points or something. And I remember people
saying I was wrong because I was off by 35 basis points when in fact, I was
only off by five days.
I think- let me put
this way. I'm not going to
put a number on it. But I think long term interest rates are headed higher. I think what we had in response to
the weakness in risk assets in the stock market-- I think we had the Pavlovian
reaction of oh, I've seen this movie.
When stocks get weak,
you buy long term treasuries. And we had a decent rally, about 50 basis points,
in long term treasuries. But now, we're basically drifting higher again.
And I think that what I
said earlier is going to start finding its way into people's psyche, which is
when the next weakness comes, there's going to be so much debt, so many bonds, that it's possible
that short term rates drop if they're manipulated by the Fed, and flight to
safety leads people to find a 250 2 year to be OK. But I'm not really sure if
people will find the 280 10 year to be OK when you're staring down the barrel
of trillions of dollars of bond issue.
And so I think interest
rates are headed higher. I really didn't think they would get back below 3% on
the 30 year treasury. They did for a minute. And now they're back above 3%. But I think when and if long term
interest rates move up towards about 350 on the 30 year, I think you could see
them accelerating higher. And so a nice round number to think about would be
around 4% on the long term sort of treasury as we move towards the latter part
of this year.
Buyback
regulation
Gundlach believes the growing popularity of
"Democratic socialism" is nothing short of dangerous, and the idea
that lawmakers would try to tell corporations how to distribute their profits
is equally absurd.
Socialism didn't work out for the Soviet Union,
Gundlach said. And it won't work out for the US.
MYLES UDLAND: Jeffrey,
Myles Udland here in New York. I want to ask you about share buybacks, which
has gotten a lot more play among a number of politicians recently. You were
just talking a moment ago about leverage ratios in the corporate bond market. Does anything about the conversation on buybacks concern you,
just in terms of politicians I suppose, being a little bit more hostile towards
corporate America?
JEFFREY GUNDLACH: Well,
it's pretty clear that the rhetoric from presidential hopefuls for 2020, on the
left side anyway, has gotten very, very hostile. Obviously, to have legislators
telling privately companies or public companies in this case, what they should
be doing with their profits is a little bit disconcerting, to say the least.
So on the margin, you
have to take legislation prohibiting or limiting buybacks as a negative for the
stock market. It's pretty clear that the leverage ratios in the corporate bond
market have driven-- have been hand in glove with buybacks. And the corporate
economy is very leveraged. So
I think what the politicians want is-- their thought processes stop enriching
the wealthy who are already disproportionately-- wealth inequality is pretty
bad-- stop enriching them with boosting up stock prices. The idea
might be to have more money for workers wages, which is obviously part of the
wealth inequality problem.
So I can kind of see
how all this-- all different parts of the same picture viewed from different
angles. But the
politicians clearly are talking about socialism, democratic socialism. Just
puts the word democratic in front of the word socialism, because it sounds
good, that at least you're voting for it, instead of being forced
into it. But you know, socialism is not a very good way of building wealth, as
shown by millennial-- you know, hundreds of years of history, most recently
down in Venezuela. That's all
you have to look at. I remember there was a thing called the Soviet Union,
which had five year plans, and I don't think they're around anymore. So not a
really good idea.
The National Debt
…
Continue reading at:
----
----
"The Smart Money has secured the good seats at the banquet of consequences, the seats
reserved for those with no debt, unimpaired
collateral and little dependence on central bank stimulus..."
Here 1 extract:
The smart money
is careful to mask the selling so as to avoid panicking the market. Smart money sells out slowly,
in pieces small enough to avoid banging the bid lower. Alas, the Smart Money
strategy is to count on greater fools to believe the shuck and
jive of QE and the rest of the flim-flam: real estate never goes down, the
economy will grow strongly through 2040, the next target for the S&P 500 is
much higher, and so on.
Take a look at
these charts of total liabilities/debt and federal income tax collected and ask
yourself: are these trends sustainable in an economy growing by a few percent a
year?
See Chart: FRED
Does anyone really think this is sustainable?
Federal income taxes collected have practically
doubled from the recessionary nadir of 2009: does
anyone really think they can double again in the next 9 years?
See Chart:
These
geometrically rising trendlines are the acme of unsustainability. The limits have been reached and
reversal looms. Ask yourself why multiple bids for real estate have vanished
and why the Fed is so anxious to publicly trumpet its dovishness. If the limits
were far from being reached, why the tone of desperation?
As I noted
yesterday, every injection of stimulus weakens the response of the following
dose. After a decade of
never-ending stimulus, the positive effects of stimulus have been exhausted.
Increasing the stimulus is toxic to an exhausted system pushing its intrinsic
limits.
As I observed yesterday, the smart money is
liquidating assets, paying off debt and moving capital into collateral that
isn't impaired by debt or speculative valuations. The
Smart Money has secured the good seats at the banquet of consequences, the seats reserved for those
with no debt, unimpaired collateral and little dependence on central bank
stimulus or central state statistical legerdemain.
….
----
----
US
DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full
of frauds & corruption. Urge cambio
"Nor did
I have any influence on the captain of the Titanic, the operators of the
Hindenburg or the 9/11/2001 Terrorism Prevention Team."
----
----
A call to get out from “City Banks” in solidarity with VEN:
"Citibank
has been asked to stand by and not invoke the guarantee until the end of the
usurpation. We don’t want to lose the gold."
----
----
The main profiteers of war : US and NATO allies plus
RU don’t care for human life
New START
nuclear arms reduction treaty in peril...
----
----
"The
idea that a company headed by the richest person on the planet could get a tax
exemption in the richest county in the country completely summarizes the
deceptive packaging of the whole program."
….
They should start by
compensating WORKERS in NEW YORK
----
----
“Liberty” has been
supplanted by diversity, “justice”
by equality...
…
[[ The real issue is
electoral corruption, buyin election by big Corp & billonaires. They are
the one who benefit from current duo-poly system (Dems-Reps) and kill the freedom to go beyond the lesser
evil. ]]
----
----
US-World ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol &
global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for
State socialis+K-, D rest in limbo
The AP admits
it's "aimed at dramatizing the economic crisis"
----
----
"The main striking force
of the Russian Navy is nuclear submarines armed with ballistic and cruise
missiles with nuclear warheads. They are constantly in various parts of
the world’s oceans, ready for immediate
use of their strategic weapons..."
[[ Is
it true that they are already in the Pacific & Atlantic coast to Ven-Col?
If that is the case, then we have to cancel all intended military operations in
VEN ]]
----
----
Chinese
scientists have revealed plans to build and launch in orbit a space solar
station that could capture the Sun’s rays 24/7, Chinese media report.
----
----
Bye Bye US Dollar in part of the South:
"To proceed with the payments, Argentina applied to Bitex — a Latin
American financial services provider that supports Bitcoin
payments."
----
----
"The mark-up on the contraband petrol can dwarf what cocaine traffickers make..."
….
[[ It is happening just the opposite:
Two reports indicate that COL drug
traffikers are supporting Trump-Guaido affair of war against VEN. It is not a
new business: It happens also when US supported “la contra” (mercenaries) in
Nicaragua. A step further will be to get the support from the Pope (also
happens in Nicaragua). When I was working in Pitt-Univ I was paid to make a
study on chances of Peace in Nicar.. I discover this situation & the report
end-up in the UN. These 2 cases are going to the UN
too. Maybe some of them already have it. I hear news on UN opposition to
US intervention in Venezuela. Why I was doing this Wk? Because I did Wk for the
FED Court on drug-related cases. Nothing illegal. I still keep contact with
C-men ]]
----
----
SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO
..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars & danger of WW3
RELATED:
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to neo-fascist regimes
& terrorist imperial chaos
REBELION
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
RT EN ESPAÑOL
----
----
----
----
----
Keiser Report Flexibilización cuantitativa
permanente
----
El Zoom Siria: Soluciones urgentes
----
----
INFORMATION CLEARING HOUSE
Deep on the US political crisis: neofascism &
internal conflicts that favor WW3
----
Ven - Media Find Trump's Coup Plan Does Not
Work By Moon Of Alabama
----
Ilhan Omar Humiliates War Criminal By Jimmy Dore
----
Cuba – “The Equilibrium of the World” – its
Econ of Resistance By Peter Koenig
----
Why The DNC Was NOT Hacked By RU By William Binney and Larry Johnson
J Assange: it proves that our source is not the
Russian Govt.
----
As I said yesterday: if you don’t implement a PEACE
strategy you will be impeached
----
Who’s Really Crossing the U.S. Border, and
Why They’re Coming By
Stephanie Leutert
----
Break Free From The Corporate Prison By Caitlin Johnstone
----
----
COUNTER PUNCH
Analysis on US Politics & Geopolitics
----
Jim Kavanagh The
Siege of Venezuela and the Travails of Empire
----
Paul Street Someone
Needs to Teach These As$#oles a Lesson
----
----
----
----
----
GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more
business-wars from US-NATO allies
----
----
----
----
----
DEMOCRACY NOW
Amy Goodman’s team
----
----
----
PRESS TV
Resume of Global News described by Iranian
observers..
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
No hay comentarios:
Publicar un comentario