ND FEB 25 19 SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social
+ Capit-compet in Econ
MADURO must go to RU
and demand:
1- Demand the right to
Self-Defense to counter act US military
attack on VEN
,,, That implies the right to
have the codes to use Nuke-Missiles if US attack
2- Demand to Chinese delegat to this meeting to post-pone further trade deals w-US
… As reported below in TRADER
WARNS: "THERE'S A LOT OF EUPHORIA OUT THERE TODAY" the US is
taking advantage from China deal at the expenses of life from VEN. IF China
have concerns for Human Rights & world Peace they should stop their US deal
3- Demand the presence of UN
anti-war delegation to this meeting.
… The WW3 is evitable if the
UN order dismantle of nukes worldwide. They didn’t do it yet… so they don’t
have the right to stop VEN, N-Korea & other to have it for self-D
….
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ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they
documented with graphics
Everything was
awesome .. But,
but, but.. a deal was so close...
Chinese markets went to '11'
overnight after positive tweets and headlines from both parties in the US-China
trade talks (which were also talked back numerous other times). SHCOMP exploded
5.6%...
See Chart:
The biggest jump in 5 years as
margin balances surge once again...
See Chart:
Shanghai Composite
vs Daily Change
US Futures opened excitedly amid
trade hope but faded all daya long despite the best efforts of Trump et al. to
jawbone stocks higher...
See Chart:
Trannies and Small Caps tumbled into
the red in the last few minutes as the early-day gains evaporated across the
market...
See Chart:
Another huge short-squeeze day all
hit at the open...
See Chart:
More shorter stocks vs. Russell 2000
and then it was GE…
VIX was higher on the day alongside
a higher stock market
See Chart:
Treasury yields were higher on the
day by 1-2bps - but were unable to erase Friday's gains...
See Chart:
The Dollar ended the day lower after
chopping around overnight...
See Chart:
Bloomberg Dollar Index
Commodities trod water basically on
the day but oil plunged on Trump's tweet...
See Chart:
Trump tweeted a shot across the bow
at OPEC production cuts and that sent oil prices lower...
“You needed that spark and that spark was his tweet this morning
slamming OPEC more or less,''
said Bob Yawger, director of the futures division at Mizuho
Securities USA.
Finally, we give Gluskin
Sheff's David Rosenberg the last word once again:
Question: What sort of bull
market is this when the Dow Utilities are challenging the peaks, and yet the
Transports are still 8.5% below their highs? It’s a fair question. Beneath the veneer, maybe the equity market isn’t pricing in
any sort of growth rebound.
See Chart:
Dow Utes / Transport
And then there is this silliness...
See Chart:
S&P 500 vs. S&P Forward EPS Expectations
….
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RELATED:
The US
doesn't want war but it can’t get the China they need for economic coexistence.
That means divorce and division of the world into spheres of interest: who is going to be the Poland in this Pact?
With those words from US President Trump, is the trade war over? Nothing is signed yet; US tariffs aren’t coming down, just not going up;
we don’t have any details; and any real deal will be
impossible for China to stick to.
Apart from that, everything is prety fine! [[ awesome ..
in satire terms ]]
OPTIONS
1) Trump
genuinely folds
2) Trump walks away.
3) Trump and Xi sign a deal showing what China should be doing
but isn’t
4) Let me be clear 1st: I’m not predicting war. But from a higher
level view there is also a spectrum of US-China
relation: war/enemies at one end and friends/integrated economies at the other
In short, in any
scenario at some point THERE IS SERIOUS PAIN AHEAD.
…
Read the full
article at:
SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-02-25/what-really-going-behind-scenes-donaldtov-xibbentrop-pact
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What has driven the US Equities price-action? 1) US Corp stock repurchases, 2)
Short-Covering, 3) Asset Manager Futures buying and 4) CTA Trend pivot from
“Max Short” to "Max Long."
See previous Charts
& this one:
Finally, there are the algos, which were so quickly
blamed for the market waterfall in December yet which nobody has anything bad
to say about now. Looking at Nomura's assumptions from the company's QIS Trend
model, McElligott estimates that CTAs were -$65B
“Max Short” in S&P by mid-Dec, and upon the cover and flip to “Max Long”
are now ~+$50.2B notional net long for a cumulative +$115B of demand.
See Chart:
Meanwhile, and still refusing to validate the
equity move higher, global money flows are
clearly "defensive" in nature, with McElligott showing that
Global Bonds leading inflows (+$39.2B over the past month) while Global
Equities continue to be purged (-$30.9B for the last month), and as we reported
last Friday, US Equities outflows in particular
continue to evidence the skepticism of the rally, with Institutional outflows
(-$2.6B on the wk, and -$14B for the past month), Retail outflows (-$1.7B last
wk, -$8.8B for the past month), Active outflows (-$3.1B on the wk, -$9.5B over
the past month) and Passive outflows (-$1.2B wk, -$13.5B past month).
See Chart:
All Equity vs. US
Equity
….
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St. Louis Fed president James Bullard discusses Quantitative Tightening
(QT). As usual, he makes little sense...
See Chart:
The FED Balance
Sheet
See more charts at:
…
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Add another
reason why traders are confused.
To say that the recent market moves have been confusing,
would be an understatement: on one hand, the S&P500 is enjoying its best
start to a year since 1987, even as the US economy continues to founder and the
Bloomberg surprise index has tumbled to the lowest
level in years, tracking the slowdown in Japan and Europe...
See Chart:
And yet a diametrically opposite observation about market
performance can be made when looking at the performance of the S&P's
constituent members, or market breadth. According to Bloomberg, the
S&P's post-Christmas advance pushed more than 92% of SPX members above their 50-day
moving average. That’s
only happened nine times since the beginning of the millennium...
See Chart:
... but what is more bizarre, is that unlike the massively
overbought signal noted above, this one actually has a happy ending, and as Bloomberg calculates, on average ever time 90% of the index
were trading above their 50-DNA, the index has gained 10% over the following
100 days (for accuracy, on 7 of these 9 occurrences, the index was higher 100
trading days later).
See Chart:
So what happens to the market next
based on its massively stretched breadth indicators, at either the index or
single stock level? That depends: IF one
goes off how massively overbought the broader market is, the next move is down 10%. However, IF one looks at the breadth of the market thrust, i.e.
how many stocks are trading above their 50 DMA, the
average return in 100 days is 10% more.
In short: flip a coin.
..
See missing charts at:
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"This may be a bear
market rally for the ages, but that shouldn’t imply investors
should do anything other than rent it. Owning
it promises to end in tears..."
The remarkable rebound in the U.S. stock market from the
lows in late December has resulted in gains that the analysts at Goldman Sachs
rightly point out already constitute banner returns for an entire calendar
year.
See
Chart:
History is
replete with examples of major recoveries following big sell-offs, many of
which turn out to be head fakes otherwise known as bear market rallies. At the end of the trading day, it’s still
fundamentals that should drive investing decisions.
If the economy
is, in fact, slowing and that is what has sidelined the Federal Reserve, then
what we are witnessing at the moment is a bear market rally. AdMacro Ltd head of research Patrick
Perret-Green recently warned the firm's clients that though the January employment
jobs report might have looked good on paper with 304,000 jobs created, it nevertheless
flashed a bright recession signal as the unemployment rate ticked up to 4
percent, the highest since June.
See Chart:
According to historic payroll data and the National Bureau
of Economic Research,every time the
three-month average unemployment rate exceeded its six-month average at cycle
peaks over the past 50 years -- like it did in January -- the U.S. economy has
experienced a recession. In a 2016 speech to the International
Monetary Fund, then Federal Reserve Bank of New York President -- and current
Bloomberg Opinion contributor -- William Dudley corroborated the historic
pattern citing research first conducted earlier in his career at Goldman Sachs.
What makes
the current run historically remarkable is the magnitude of the 10.5 percent
rally in such a short time span, which belies the bottoming of the unemployment
rate in the face of accelerating layoffs.
See Chart:
Bear Market Rallies
can be Protracted & Pronounced
It was a bit curious to read in his recent Bloomberg Opinion
commentary that Dudley thought it was “hard to see how the normalization of the
Fed’s balance sheet tightened financial conditions in a way that would have
weighed significantly on stock prices.” The current bear market rally was,
after all, catalyzed by Chairman Jerome Powell’s assurances that quantitative
tightening might be suspended soon, a stance since corroborated by both hawkish
and dovish Fed officials.
Skeptical investors have been badly bruised if they were
emboldened to fight both the Fed and the C-Suite at the same time. There is one
force, however, that trumps both of these faith-based investing approaches and
that is economic fundamentals. This may be a bear market rally for the ages,
but that shouldn’t imply investors should do anything other than rent it.
Owning it promises to end in tears.
…
Read the full article at:
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Today is a memorable day for bond traders: for
the first time in years, there were two auctions within 2 hours of each other
which came in... INVERTED.
See Chart:
5 Years Treasury Auction History
So overall, a stronger auction than today's 2Y
sale, but again the most memorable consequence is that on the day we had a 2Y
and 5Y auction, the two priced inverted, continuing to indicate that nothing in
the economy is as well as soaring stocks would make it.
…
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"Concerns of earnings recessions and, indeed, the probability of
outright recessions have abated. Rather, decision makers and traders are only too happy to dream of falling back on
the policies that worked so well for them over the last decade."
While 'hope' has collapsed in macro-economic data over the
past few weeks:
See
Chart:
Former fund manager and FX trader Richard Breslow notes
that there has been plenty of
hopeful news out the last few days.
The Chinese government is
stepping up its liquidityprovisions with much optimistic discussion of
the transmission mechanism to the real economy finally kicking in. Wholesale
securities deregulation of rules previously implemented to curb bubbles is
quickly being enacted and margin debt on stock purchases leap to a new high for
the year.
Risk-related assets
have taken their cue from the optimistic side of the
coin and boomed. Equities are
flying.
See Chart:
Chinese stocks didn’t merely have a good day. They gapped
higher on the open and never once looked back. And they did so in volume not
seen since 2015, when the market was busy exploding higher before promptly
imploding lower, presaging a multi-year period of far
lower volatility.
See Chart:
There is a lot of
euphoria out there today. Concerns of earnings recessions and,
indeed, the probability of outright recessions have abated. Rather, decision makers and traders are only too happy to dream of
falling back on the policies that worked so well for them over the last decade.
See Chart:
S&P 500 vs.
S&P Forward Earning
Expectations
See more charts at:
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US
DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds
& corruption. Urge cambio
"There are limits, after
all, to people’s gullibility. It’s not like you can just run the same con, with the same fake message
and the same fake messiah, over and over, and expect folks to fall for it. If you could, well, that would be extremely
depressing. " for Trump and the neocon fascist, not for the Nation
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"...they turned over thousands
and thousands of pages of discovery in the Clinton e-mail investigation and
there was no indictment in that investigation, that this was a new precedent
they were setting and they were going to have to live by this
precedent..."
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US-World ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol
& global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State
socialis+K-, D rest in limbo
Ahead of
the barrage of news this week, Jim Reid writes that those in the capital
markets who have had enough of politics "I suggest you go on holiday for a
few days."
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The wave of
gold-miner consolidation has taken a decidedly combative turn.
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While it is
a sea of green across the globe after Trump announced a delay to the March 1
tariff deadline, the euphoria in China is unmatched as stocks soared into a
bull market on volumes not seen since 2015.
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OPEC needs
to "relax".
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But issues
like enforcement could still present some challenges.
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"MAKE
TURKEY GREAT AGAIN" COLLIDES WITH THE US With RU-Syrians too
The summer peak of the
crisis between Turkey and the United States, two NATO allies in
theory, has been replaced by
cautious pessimism...
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If expectations are met, a new gas hub could be in the making, combining Cypriot and Israeli production with
Egypt’s existing LNG infrastructure...
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO
..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars & danger of WW3
He will be well protected inside
Prison until Maduro finish his mandate. He risk his life IF the US intervene militarily in VEN. There’re many
people who hate him .. He can also be killed by US mercenaries to accuse Maduro
of such crime. Now he is useless for the US. IF
he really wants to be Pres.. he has to wait. Only in jail his life will be protected and his followers can demand his freedom & pardon.. IF there is not war.
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SHOWS RT
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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to neo-fascist regimes &
terrorist imperial chaos
REBELION
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ALAI ORG
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RT EN
ESPAÑOL
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INFORMATION CLEARING HOUSE
Deep on the US political crisis: neofascism & internal
conflicts that favor WW3
Juan
Guaido: A Traitor To His People By Jorge Ruiz Miyares
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Burning
Aid: An Intervent Deception on Col-Ven Bridge? Must
Read - By MB
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No
One Trusts US Govt, Not Even American People By Paul Craig Roberts
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Canadian
military in Haiti. Why? By
Yves Engler
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Extinction
Rebellion By
Chris Hedges
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COUNTER PUNCH
Analysis on US Politics & Geopolitics
Kenn Orphan The
Banality of Empire
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Paul Tritschler On
War and Dehumanization
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more
business-wars from US-NATO allies
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DEMOCRACY NOW
Amy Goodman’s team
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PRESS TV
Resume of Global News described by Iranian observers..
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