ND FEB 28 19 SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social
+ Capit-compet in Eco
ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they
documented with graphics
BEST YEAR FOR STOCKS SINCE 1987 CONTINUES AS
FEB ECONOMIC DATA CRASHES MOST IN 2 YEARS Everything is awesome vs
Everything is terrible
The S&P 500 continues its strongest
start to a year since 1987...
See Chart:
S&P 500 YTD
Perrformance
Despite the worst monthly drop in US Macro data in two
years...
See Chart:
US Macro Surprise
Index
... who cares about fundamentals
when global money supply (and bank balance sheets) have suddenly reversed
course and exploded higher...
See Chart:
Global Money Supply vs Global Rescue
Notably, China massively
outperformed US and European markets in February...
See Chart:
Summing February up thus...
US equities ended the month weaker... with The S&P down
for 3 straight days for the first time since Mid-December... this is also
the 4th weak close in a row…
See Chart:
US Small Caps outperformed in
February...
See Chart:
S&P was unable to maintain 2,800
once again...
See Chart:
For a little context, February has seen a non-stop short-squeeze...
See Chart:
More shorted stocks
vs Russell 2000
Equity (VIX) and Credit (IGCDX and
HYCDX) protection costs collapsed in February along with all sense of risk...
See Chart:
This is the 10Y
yield's biggest monthly yield spike since Sept 2018.
And 10Y Yields broke out of their
recent descending triangle pattern...
See Chart:
US 10Y yield
The Bloomberg dollar index (first
monthly gain since Oct 2018)...
See Chart:
Bloomberg Dollar Index
vs. FOMC
The last two charts we saw it yesterday
1-S&P 500 vs.
S&P Forward EPS Expectations
2-2019 S&P
vs 1937 S&P
…
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“We have a delusional, unhinged madman in the Oval Office,
and anything is possible,”
1-The
trade war, which Stockman
accurately describes as a “war on consumers”seems to have already done untold
damage. Farmers are suffering and our food supply could have been irreversibly
changed. “The
trade war is a war on consumers,” Stockman said.
2-the “border
war,” Stockman referred to,
he believes that the American workforce is shrinking and unskilled and
illegal immigrants are necessary workers. Because of shifting
demographics, “the domestic labor force is shrinking,” Stockman
explained.
“We need immigrant labor. We shouldn’t be
having a, you know, silly battle over a wall in a border where there isn’t a
crisis.”
3- Trump’s
third war, against the Fed, is the only one that’s actually good. The
Federal Reserve is the United States’ central bank and has been the
cause and “savior” of every major financial crisis since the Great
Depression. But Stockman is upset that Trump expressed concerns that
interest rates would rise, ending the “easy money” era. Now borrowing
money is more expensive and less are tempted to do so.
It has
become a perfect storm across the G3 for higher yields at a time when the
market is still positioned for pessimism. The next question is: how deep can
this fixed income correction become? Because we know what happens to risk if
yields go too high….
And as we can see from the below chart, in Q4 oil led break evens lower which led yields lower. Now
oil is bouncing and that is the major reason why rates are finally moving
higher, not anything economic or Fed led.
US 10yr rates breaking out higher but still lag oil (purple) and
breakevens (green)…
See Chart;
It is also notable that breakevens are actually HIGHER than
oil. That makes complete sense based on everything
we discussed in Wednesday’s note. Namely that the Fed is talking about
letting inflation run above target so of course there is an additional firming
of inflation expectations outside of energy.
If energy is leading US 10yr rates higher,
you need to have an oil view. I would flag a bullish setup due to:
- Growing expectations of an extension of the successful OPEC supply cut in 2H
- A few Supertankers heading (possibly already here?) to the US to alleviate the glut (recall China loves the US light sweet crude product)
- Big Cushing draw this week
- Gas also breaking out so you are getting a coordinated bullish message in the energy complex
- US/China trade war deal potential
- Very positive seasonal period
- Strong technical setup
February, March, and April are the seasonal
sweet spots for WTI…
See Table
WTI crude formed and broke the neckline of a bullish inverse head and
shoulder pattern. It then retested that neckline which held which validates the
bullish setup. Target is $67…
See Chart:
Bunds:
The selloff feels very much EU/UK led so what’s been going on in Bunds?
First and foremost, positioning has gotten very skewed towards the idea that
the ECB is on perma hold. Certainly all the recent data and ECB speak would
point folks that way but that makes it susceptible to any sort of positive
news.
Most importantly, it is helping the floundering European banks. Thus
Bunds are breaking down into an ABC correction and are starting to follow the
EU bank index (inverted in purple) lower...
See Charts:
So for bunds, it is the combo of: the
narrative of global growth bottoming + higher oil + LTRO expectations.
Gilts:
Gilts is a simple story of all of all the above mentioned reasons for
TY and Bunds to move lower plus a more optimistic Brexit outlook. We therefore
can see that Gilts are tracking GBP/USD (inverted in purple)…
See Chart:
So that’s the macro and micro explanations for
the selloff. The complete list:
- Corporate deals
- Bad month end longs
- Growing belief that the global data is starting to bottom (mostly because of China stimulus)
- Oil and gas break out + the bullish setup for a move even higher
- Breakevens surging on the back of oil + Fed “let it run hot” rhetoric
- Expectations for a new round of TLTRO in the EZ
- Improved Brexit outlook
Therefore, it has become a perfect storm across the G3 for higher
yields at a time when the market is still positioned for pessimism. The next
question becomes: how deep can this fixed income correction become? Because we
know what happens to risk assets if yields go too high….
Gold
Fund a cheap “Gold” put by selling an
expensive “Red” put. In the new regime, you will like the extra duration of
Golds.
See Chart:
….
….
SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-02-28/what-behind-fixed-income-selloff-and-what-do-about-it
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US
DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds
& corruption. Urge cambio
"..., it’s a mistake
to think that the draft could never return because people would
overwhelmingly oppose people being forced into combat."
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US-World ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol
& global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State
socialis+K-, D rest in limbo
Sen. Marco Rubio and coup leaders claim the Venezuelan National
Guard burned US aid trucks on the
bridge in Colombia. But all available evidence points in the opposite direction...
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"Basically,
they wanted the sanctions lifted in their entirety, and we couldn’t do that.
They were willing to denuke a large portion of the areas that we wanted, but we
couldn’t give up all of the sanctions for that."
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"The
Israeli security forces killed and maimed Palestinian demonstrators who did not pose an imminent threat..."
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO
..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars & danger of WW3
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VENEZUELA in
https://sputniknews.com/latam/
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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to neo-fascist regimes &
terrorist imperial chaos
REBELION
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[[
En el US también la vivimos pero no la queremos reconocer]]
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ALAI ORG
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[[ Todo Gbno es dict.. depend d: al servicio de
quien: pueb v Olig ]]
Por Gabriele Kuehnle
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RT EN
ESPAÑOL
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El Zoom Trump y su
'Troika del mal'
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Keiser Report "La
recompra de acciones de Buffet es totalmen fraudul"
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INFORMATION CLEARING HOUSE
Deep on the US political crisis: neofascism & internal
conflicts that favor WW3
Michael Cohen: If Trump Loses In 2020 'There
Will Never Be A Peaceful Transition Of Power' Watch Full Session Testimony on Capitol Hill
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Trump Sticks To Sanctions - U.S., North Korea
Summit Fails By Moon Of
Alabama
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Regime Change Is Urgently Needed In
Washington By Andre Vltchek
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Sanders and A Ocasio-Cortez are weak on peace. De Sanders lo esperaba pero AOC?
Esperaba mucho
de ella?.. me da pena lo ocurrido. Seguiré
apoyando a E-Warren.
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COUNTER PUNCH
Analysis on US Politics & Geopolitics
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Judith Deutsch Bolsonaro,
Trudeau, et al. Exterminators-in-Chief
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EVA
GOLINGER in CounterPunch Radio on VEN and US Imperialism
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more
business-wars from US-NATO allies
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DEMOCRACY NOW
Amy Goodman’s team
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PRESS TV
Resume of Global News described by Iranian observers..
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