jueves, 28 de febrero de 2019

ND FEB 28 19 SIT EC y POL



ND FEB 28 19  SIT EC y POL 
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco


ZERO HEDGE  ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics


The S&P 500 continues its strongest start to a year since 1987...
See Chart:
S&P 500  YTD Perrformance

Despite the worst monthly drop in US Macro data in two years...
See Chart:
US Macro Surprise Index

... who cares about fundamentals when global money supply (and bank balance sheets) have suddenly reversed course and exploded higher...
See Chart:
Global Money Supply vs Global Rescue

Notably, China massively outperformed US and European markets in February...
See Chart:

Summing February up thus...
US equities ended the month weaker... with The S&P down for 3 straight days for the first time since Mid-December... this is also the 4th weak close in a row
See  Chart:

US Small Caps outperformed in February...
See Chart:

S&P was unable to maintain 2,800 once again...
See Chart:

For a little context, February has seen a non-stop short-squeeze...
See Chart:
More shorted stocks vs Russell 2000

Equity (VIX) and Credit (IGCDX and HYCDX) protection costs collapsed in February along with all sense of risk...
See Chart:

This is the 10Y yield's biggest monthly yield spike since Sept 2018.
And 10Y Yields broke out of their recent descending triangle pattern...
See Chart:
US 10Y yield

The Bloomberg dollar index (first monthly gain since Oct 2018)...
See Chart:
Bloomberg Dollar Index  vs.  FOMC

The last two charts we saw it yesterday
1-S&P 500  vs. S&P Forward EPS Expectations
2-2019 S&P  vs  1937  S&P
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“We have a delusional, unhinged madman in the Oval Office, and anything is possible,”

1-The trade war, which Stockman accurately describes as a “war on consumers”seems  to have already done untold damage.  Farmers are suffering and our food supply could have been irreversibly changed. “The trade war is a war on consumers,” Stockman said.

2-the “border war,” Stockman referred to, he believes that the American workforce is shrinking and unskilled and illegal immigrants are necessary workers. Because of shifting demographics, “the domestic labor force is shrinking,” Stockman explained.

“We need immigrant labor. We shouldn’t be having a, you know, silly battle over a wall in a border where there isn’t a crisis.”

3- Trump’s third war, against the Fed, is the only one that’s actually good. The Federal Reserve is the United States’ central bank and has been the cause and “savior” of every major financial crisis since the Great Depression.  But Stockman is upset that Trump expressed concerns that interest rates would rise, ending the “easy money” era.  Now borrowing money is more expensive and less are tempted to do so.



It has become a perfect storm across the G3 for higher yields at a time when the market is still positioned for pessimism. The next question is: how deep can this fixed income correction become? Because we know what happens to risk if yields go too high….

And as we can see from the below chart, in Q4 oil led break evens lower which led yields lower. Now oil is bouncing and that is the major reason why rates are finally moving higher, not anything economic or Fed led.

US 10yr rates breaking out higher but still lag oil (purple) and breakevens (green)
See Chart;

It is also notable that breakevens are actually HIGHER than oil. That makes complete sense based on everything we discussed in Wednesday’s note. Namely that the Fed is talking about letting inflation run above target so of course there is an additional firming of inflation expectations outside of energy.

If energy is leading US 10yr rates higher, you need to have an oil view. I would flag a bullish setup due to:
  • Growing expectations of an extension of the successful OPEC supply cut in 2H
  • A few Supertankers heading (possibly already here?) to the US to alleviate the glut (recall China loves the US light sweet crude product)
  • Big Cushing draw this week
  • Gas also breaking out so you are getting a coordinated bullish message in the energy complex
  • US/China trade war deal potential
  • Very positive seasonal period
  • Strong technical setup

February, March, and April are the seasonal sweet spots for WTI…
See Table

WTI crude formed and broke the neckline of a bullish inverse head and shoulder pattern. It then retested that neckline which held which validates the bullish setup. Target is $67
See Chart:

Bunds:
The selloff feels very much EU/UK led so what’s been going on in Bunds? First and foremost, positioning has gotten very skewed towards the idea that the ECB is on perma hold. Certainly all the recent data and ECB speak would point folks that way but that makes it susceptible to any sort of positive news.

Most importantly, it is helping the floundering European banks. Thus Bunds are breaking down into an ABC correction and are starting to follow the EU bank index (inverted in purple) lower...
See Charts:

So for bunds, it is the combo of: the narrative of global growth bottoming + higher oil + LTRO expectations. 

Gilts:
Gilts is a simple story of all of all the above mentioned reasons for TY and Bunds to move lower plus a more optimistic Brexit outlook. We therefore can see that Gilts are tracking GBP/USD (inverted in purple)…
See Chart:

So that’s the macro and micro explanations for the selloff. The complete list:
  • Corporate deals
  • Bad month end longs
  • Growing belief that the global data is starting to bottom (mostly because of China stimulus)
  • Oil and gas break out + the bullish setup for a move even higher
  • Breakevens surging on the back of oil + Fed “let it run hot” rhetoric
  • Expectations for a new round of TLTRO in the EZ
  • Improved Brexit outlook

Therefore, it has become a perfect storm across the G3 for higher yields at a time when the market is still positioned for pessimism. The next question becomes: how deep can this fixed income correction become? Because we know what happens to risk assets if yields go too high….

Gold
Fund a cheap “Gold” put by selling an expensive “Red” put. In the new regime, you will like the extra duration of Golds.
See Chart:
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US  DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambio



"..., it’s a mistake to think that the draft could never return because people would overwhelmingly oppose people being forced into combat."
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US-World ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State socialis+K-, D rest in limbo


Sen. Marco Rubio and coup leaders claim the Venezuelan National Guard burned US aid trucks on the bridge in Colombia. But all available evidence points in the opposite direction...
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"Basically, they wanted the sanctions lifted in their entirety, and we couldn’t do that. They were willing to denuke a large portion of the areas that we wanted, but we couldn’t give up all of the sanctions for that."
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"The Israeli security forces killed and maimed Palestinian demonstrators who did not pose an imminent threat..."
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO  ..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars & danger of WW3


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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to neo-fascist regimes & terrorist imperial chaos

REBELION

                Venezuela tiene un único presidente  Emir Simão 
                Ent a E Teran  "La alternativa sería la guerra"  Tobias Lambert
                El viacrucis de Duque y Uribe  Fernando Dorado
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COL        Un concierto por Colombia   Alfredo Serrano
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USA       El vasto, estúpido e inútil muro con México   Greg Grandin
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Áfric      Sudán:  La virtud de aprender del pasado  Khalid M. Medani
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                Los obispos españoles ocultarán casos de abusos sexual  Jesus B
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Polit      Marxis y colapso  Frontera teórica y política de la Revolución MF
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Econ      Nos deben lo que nunca podrán pagar  Juan Camilo Delgado
                El mundo en caos 2: Ante un futuro incierto  Juan Vázquez
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Opin      Una fábula, un enigma y una solución final   Miguel Iradier
                El pueblo español y sus gobernantes  Jaime Richart
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ALC        R Dominica : Discurso reeleccionista y clasista  Lilliam Oviedo
                El circo gringo Aid Live contra Venezuela   Polo Castellanos
                ARG: Cecilia Ousset: “ ponen  en peligro a mujeres + pobres ” 
                ARG: Tambalea el frente amplio burgués: oport para la milit LB
    ARG: El futuro de ARG: si gana Cambiemos  Luis Yanes
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UE          Alemania:  Triste, sola (y en recesión)  Rafael Poch de Feliu
                [[ En el US también la vivimos pero no la queremos reconocer]]
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Cuba      El tránsito posible y el necesario  José Luis Martin Romero
                Después del SÍ en el refer del 24F: ¿qué viene? Jessica Domínguez
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ALAI ORG

                alemania en 1953?.  Eric Toussaint   
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                Hay una dictadura en Venezuela?  José A. Amesty R. 
                [[ Todo Gbno es dict.. depend d: al servicio de quien: pueb v Olig ]]
                Por Gabriele Kuehnle
                Clave el mar al norte de Venezuela   Jesús Dávila  
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RT EN ESPAÑOL

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INFORMATION CLEARING HOUSE
Deep on the US political crisis: neofascism & internal conflicts that favor WW3

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Sanders and A Ocasio-Cortez are weak on peace. De Sanders lo esperaba pero AOC?
Esperaba mucho de ella?.. me da pena lo ocurrido.  Seguiré apoyando a E-Warren.
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Here You Have Our Future   By Charles Hugh Smith
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COUNTER PUNCH
Analysis on US Politics & Geopolitics

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EVA GOLINGER  in  CounterPunch Radio on VEN and US Imperialism
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more business-wars from US-NATO  allies

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DEMOCRACY NOW
Amy Goodman’s team


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PRESS TV
Resume of Global News described by Iranian observers..


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