Sat Oct 6
19 SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y
propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Econ
ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over.
Financiers know it, they documented with graphics
DEBT.. THE KILLER When it will kill us? .. See the last Chart: one year from 2018 to
2040? Can
we killed first?.. Of course .. Peacefully? Depends on how long EU-
& Brics takes to kill the USD.. or the IMF to impose their opt. VIA violence
depends on: a- WW3; b- Peoples’ revolution Guess which one could come 1st In any case you should Org brigade & be
ready to take one opt
..
As
the market's attention gradually turns to rising rates and interest expense,
one number that will stick out is the following: in 2018 the amount spent on interest on US federal debt hit a record high
of just over $523 billion.
Earlier this week, when the US closed
fiscal 2018 on September 30, we reported that US gross national debt jumped by
$84 billion on September 28, the last business day of fiscal year 2018; with
this last push higher, total gross national debt in fiscal 2018 rose by $1.271
trillion to an all time record of $21.52 trillion.
What is more stunning, is that only six
months ago, on March 16, it had for the first time risen above the $21-trillion
mark, while a year ago, at the end of September 2017, it was just $20.2
trillion.
See Chart:
One reason why US legislators no longer
care about either the deficit or US Federal Debt may be because deficits are
supposed to trigger inflation and scare off bond investors. And while until
recently, the latter have been all but missing, a sharp
repricing took place last week when as we discussed
previously, 10Y yields soared in the last three days of the past week amid
a vicious repricing of inflationary expectations, which led to a near record
bond market rout, a surge in bond market volatility and a sharp selloff in
stocks.
See Chart:
As the market's attention
gradually turns to rising rates and interest expense, one number that will
stick out is the following: in 2018 the amount spent on interest on US federal
debt hit a record high of just over $523 billion.
See Chart:
The bottom line: now that the bond vigilantes appear to have woken up from the
decade-long slumber, a pernicious positive feedback loop has emerged, one where
higher rates lead to more focus on the surge in underlying debt, which in turn
brings more attention to rising interest rates, which spooks buyers who
demand even higher interest rates as the cycle restarts.
Where and when does it end? Instead of answering, below we show the CBO's latest baseline case
(the pessimistic one is far worse). It is self-explanatory.
See Chart:
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SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-10-06/us-spent-record-523-billion-interest-payments-fiscal-2018
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The
Fed has been raising rates and normalizing the balance sheet to where Wall Street is starting to squeal. But
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell says, “We’re a long way from neutral at this point.”
The “up to” begins to matter for the first time.
The Fed released its weekly balance sheet Thursday
afternoon. Over the four-week period from September 6 through October 3, total
assets on the Fed’s balance sheet dropped by $34 billion. This brought the
decline since October 2017, when the QE unwind began, to $285 billion. At
$4,175 billion, total assets are now at the lowest level since March 5, 2014:
See Chart:
During QE, the Fed bought Treasury
securities and mortgage-backed securities (MBS). During the “balance sheet
normalization,” the Fed is shedding those securities. But the balance sheet
also reflects the Fed’s other activities, and so the amount of its total assets
is higher than the combined amount of Treasury securities and MBS it holds, and
the changes in total assets also reflect its other activities.
From September 6 through October 3, the
Fed’s holdings of Treasury Securities fell by $19 billion to $2,294 billion,
the lowest since March 5, 2014. Since the beginning of the QE-Unwind, the Fed
has shed $172 billion in Treasuries:
See Chart:
Mortgage-Backed
Securities (MBS)
The Fed is also shedding the MBS on its
balance sheet. The Fed acquired residential MBS that were issued and guaranteed
by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Ginnie Mae. Residential MBS differ from regular
bonds; holders receive principal payments as the underlying mortgages are paid
down or are paid off. At maturity, the remaining principal is paid off. To keep
the balance of these ever-shrinking MBS from declining after QE ended, the New
York Fed’s Open Market Operations (OMO) kept buying MBS.
And this is what we got. Over the period from September 6 through October 3, the
balance of MBS fell by $14.2 billion, to $1,682 billion, the lowest since
September 10, 2014. In total, $89 billion in MBS have been shed since the
beginning of the QE unwind:
See Chart:
The Fed’s strategy of buying MBS under
what Wall Street had wishful-thinkingly called “QE infinity” was designed to
lower long-term interest rates, particularly mortgage rates. If the Fed decides to shed all its MBS and stay out of this
market, it would further reduce the official support for – or rather, official
manipulation of – the mortgage market, and by extension, the housing market
See Chart:
The Fed has been raising rates
to where Wall Street is starting
to squeal. But Fed Chairman Jerome Powell says, “We’re a long way from neutral at this
point.”Read… Powell
Explains Just How Hawkish the Fed is Getting
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US DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete;
it’s full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambio
In
a private ceremony, Brett Kavanaugh was sworn in as the 114th Justice of the US
Supreme Court.
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Wait
for the fall-out from
this...
Yesterday’s dramatic closure vote to push
SCOTUS nominee Brett Kavanaugh to a final confirmation vote is one of those
political moments of pure victory. It was messy
and it was tense, but the ultimate outcome was better than I could have ever
originally expected.
Like
flies to a bug zapper they flew too close to the light and were fried
unmercifully. Feinstein knows she’s done.
This letter tells you so much about what
is really going on behind the scenes.
Read this letter (touch
the right vertical line to widen up)
Grassley is
telling this group of feckless jackasses he has to have them dead-to-rights. He has their texts/IM’s and knows this was
all coordinated through Feinstein’s office. That’s why DiFi looked like she was crying
while Chuck Schumer handled the press.
Wait
for the fall-out from this. The Republicans had
a win/win situation on their hands here as long as Kavanaugh was 1) not guilty and 2) willing to endure the process.
It looks like he was able to do
both. Because if the Democrats force a failure of the vote, it will energize people to go to the polls in numbers unheard of for
a mid-term election.
One of the two major parties has to fail
for the Swamp to truly be Drained. Old power
structures within the Senate and House need to crumble. Diane Feinstein
is staring (with tears in her eyes) at censure, being stripped of her seniority
and possible forced retirement.
What’s sad is that they really thought
the rules and actors hadn’t changed. And if I’m
right that this was an operation planned from the beginning to frame Kavanaugh
with a known liar, not only Ford but Julie Swetnick as well, then by the
time this is done everything in Washington will
look very different over the next six months.
George
Soros and Tom Steyer will have to spend even more money on their next
losing battle. And at some point, the situation in D.C. will turn against
them far enough for asset seizure and possible imprisonment.
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US-WW ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol
& global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran
search for State socialis+K-, D rest in limbo
Again with Nuke blackmails?
"I
visualize that either tactical
nuclear weapons or chemical agents would be active candidates for employment."
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One
has to go back to late 2012 to find that last time that Euro HY spreads were
this wide to US spreads.
See Chart:
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This
is the unwinnable battle governments
and central banks are fighting (infinite
economic and financial growth amid a very finite population of potential
consumers)...
See Chart:
For those curious to see the change in
the segments isolated. The large decelerations of growth among
the 0-64 year olds prior to the last two recessions and now the
decelerating growth among the 65 to 74 year olds is disconcerting. But the imminent shift to the majority of growth among
75+ year olds is an obvious and foreseeable economic catastrophe.
See Chart:
The chart below details the annual change
in the potential work force, and given the bulk of population growth
presently among 65+ and 75+ year olds, why the potential labor force
growth won't budge (while the "not in labor force" will swell with
75+ year olds). Multiplying the annual population growth by each age
groups labor force participation rate, a fast decelerating population
growth rate alongside the decelerating GDP growth rate is even more
evident. And it's pretty simple math to see why elevated targets
of present and future GDP growth are not possible absent significantly
lower rates and significantly greater debt creation.
See Chart:
The correlation of the annual
population growth (multiplied by labor force participation rates among the
differing age groups) within the nations that do 90% of the global
consuming and drive 90% of global GDP (%, black line) plus linear trend
line (dashed black line, chart below). Economically,
this trend "ain't yer friend"...but from an "investor"
standpoint, BTFD as the powers that be will digitally and literally
continue to go all in.
See Chart:
This is the unwinnable battle
governments and central banks are fighting (infinite economic and financial
growth amid a very finite population of potential consumers). And although it is ultimately impossible to succeed, they will
break any and every rule necessary, do "whatever it takes",
extend and pretend, all just to kick the can one more time. Of course, currencies, income earners, and savers will
pay the price while asset holders will be made wildly wealthy...until suddenly
and inexplicably (LOL), it all falls apart.
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO ..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars
& danger of WW3
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Trump Says ‘Doing Very Well’ on North Korea
We create a fake monster to scare JA
& suck $
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SHOWS RT
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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to
neo-fascist regimes & terrorist imperial chaos
VIENTO SUR
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Especial Sustitutas
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INFORMATION CLEARING HOUSE
Deep on the US political crisis:
neofascism & internal conflicts that favor WW3
NATO Hypocrisy's Twilight Zone By Finian Cunningham Continue
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Best Government Money Can Buy By Philip M.Giraldi Continue
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Everything Is A Hoax By Paul Craig Roberts Continue
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America Is on the Road to Becoming a Fascist
State By Robert Scheer Continue
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America's New Aristocracy Lives in an
Accountability-free Zone By
David Sirota
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The Lies Of Our (Financial) Times By James Petras Continue
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that
leads to more business-wars from US-NATO
allies
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PRESS TV
Resume of Global News described by
Iranian observers..
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