sábado, 6 de octubre de 2018

Sat Oct 6 19 SIT EC y POL



Sat  Oct 6  19  SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Econ


ZERO HEDGE  ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics


DEBT.. THE KILLER  When it will kill us?  .. See the last Chart: one year from 2018 to 2040?       Can we killed first?.. Of course .. Peacefully? Depends on how long EU- & Brics takes to kill the USD.. or the IMF to impose their opt. VIA violence depends on: a- WW3; b- Peoples’ revolution Guess which one could come 1st  In any case you should Org brigade & be ready to take one opt
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As the market's attention gradually turns to rising rates and interest expense, one number that will stick out is the following: in 2018 the amount spent on interest on US federal debt hit a record high of just over $523 billion.

Earlier this week, when the US closed fiscal 2018 on September 30, we reported that US gross national debt jumped by $84 billion on September 28, the last business day of fiscal year 2018; with this last push higher, total gross national debt in fiscal 2018 rose by $1.271 trillion to an all time record of $21.52 trillion.

What is more stunning, is that only six months ago, on March 16, it had for the first time risen above the $21-trillion mark, while a year ago, at the end of September 2017, it was just $20.2 trillion.
See Chart:


One reason why US legislators no longer care about either the deficit or US Federal Debt may be because deficits are supposed to trigger inflation and scare off bond investors. And while until recently, the latter have been all but missing, a sharp repricing took place last week when as we discussed previously, 10Y yields soared in the last three days of the past week amid a vicious repricing of inflationary expectations, which led to a near record bond market rout, a surge in bond market volatility and a sharp selloff in stocks.
See Chart:


As the market's attention gradually turns to rising rates and interest expense, one number that will stick out is the following: in 2018 the amount spent on interest on US federal debt hit a record high of just over $523 billion.
See Chart:


The bottom line: now that the bond vigilantes appear to have woken up from the decade-long slumber, a pernicious positive feedback loop has emerged, one where higher rates lead to more focus on the surge in underlying debt, which in turn brings more attention to rising interest rates, which spooks buyers who demand even higher interest rates as the cycle restarts.


Where and when does it end? Instead of answering, below we show the CBO's latest baseline case (the pessimistic one is far worse). It is self-explanatory.
See Chart:
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The Fed has been raising rates and normalizing the balance sheet to where Wall Street is starting to squeal. But Fed Chairman Jerome Powell says, “We’re a long way from neutral at this point.”


The “up to” begins to matter for the first time.
The Fed released its weekly balance sheet Thursday afternoon. Over the four-week period from September 6 through October 3, total assets on the Fed’s balance sheet dropped by $34 billion. This brought the decline since October 2017, when the QE unwind began, to $285 billion. At $4,175 billion, total assets are now at the lowest level since March 5, 2014:
See Chart:

During QE, the Fed bought Treasury securities and mortgage-backed securities (MBS). During the “balance sheet normalization,” the Fed is shedding those securities. But the balance sheet also reflects the Fed’s other activities, and so the amount of its total assets is higher than the combined amount of Treasury securities and MBS it holds, and the changes in total assets also reflect its other activities.
From September 6 through October 3, the Fed’s holdings of Treasury Securities fell by $19 billion to $2,294 billion, the lowest since March 5, 2014. Since the beginning of the QE-Unwind, the Fed has shed $172 billion in Treasuries:
See Chart:

Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS)

The Fed is also shedding the MBS on its balance sheet. The Fed acquired residential MBS that were issued and guaranteed by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Ginnie Mae. Residential MBS differ from regular bonds; holders receive principal payments as the underlying mortgages are paid down or are paid off. At maturity, the remaining principal is paid off. To keep the balance of these ever-shrinking MBS from declining after QE ended, the New York Fed’s Open Market Operations (OMO) kept buying MBS.

And this is what we got. Over the period from September 6 through October 3, the balance of MBS fell by $14.2 billion, to $1,682 billion, the lowest since September 10, 2014. In total, $89 billion in MBS have been shed since the beginning of the QE unwind:
See Chart:

The Fed’s strategy of buying MBS under what Wall Street had wishful-thinkingly called “QE infinity” was designed to lower long-term interest rates, particularly mortgage rates. If the Fed decides to shed all its MBS and stay out of this market, it would further reduce the official support for – or rather, official manipulation of – the mortgage market, and by extension, the housing market
See Chart:

The Fed has been raising rates to where Wall Street is starting to squeal. But Fed Chairman Jerome Powell says, “We’re a long way from neutral at this point.”Read…  Powell Explains Just How Hawkish the Fed is Getting  
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US  DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambio



In a private ceremony, Brett Kavanaugh was sworn in as the 114th Justice of the US Supreme Court.
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Wait for the fall-out from this...

Yesterday’s dramatic closure vote to push SCOTUS nominee Brett Kavanaugh to a final confirmation vote is one of those political moments of pure victory.  It was messy and it was tense, but the ultimate outcome was better than I could have ever originally expected.

Like flies to a bug zapper they flew too close to the light and were fried unmercifully.  Feinstein knows she’s done.

This letter tells you so much about what is really going on behind the scenes.

Read this letter  (touch the right vertical line to widen up)

Grassley is telling this group of feckless jackasses he has to have them dead-to-rights.  He has their texts/IM’s and knows this was all coordinated through Feinstein’s office.  That’s why DiFi looked like she was crying while Chuck Schumer handled the press.

Wait for the fall-out from this.  The Republicans had a win/win situation on their hands here as long as Kavanaugh was 1) not guilty and 2) willing to endure the process. 

It looks like he was able to do both.  Because if the Democrats force a failure of the vote, it will energize people to go to the polls in numbers unheard of for a mid-term election.

One of the two major parties has to fail for the Swamp to truly be Drained.  Old power structures within the Senate and House need to crumble.  Diane Feinstein is staring (with tears in her eyes) at censure, being stripped of her seniority and possible forced retirement.

What’s sad is that they really thought the rules and actors hadn’t changed.  And if I’m right that this was an operation planned from the beginning to frame Kavanaugh with a known liar, not only Ford but Julie Swetnick as well, then by the time this is done everything in Washington will look very different over the next six months.

George Soros and Tom Steyer will have to spend even more money on their next losing battle.  And at some point, the situation in D.C. will turn against them far enough for asset seizure and possible imprisonment.
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US-WW ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State socialis+K-, D rest in limbo

Again with Nuke blackmails?

"I visualize that either tactical nuclear weapons or chemical agents would be active candidates for employment."
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One has to go back to late 2012 to find that last time that Euro HY spreads were this wide to US spreads.
See Chart:
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This is the unwinnable battle governments and central banks are fighting (infinite economic and financial growth amid a very finite population of potential consumers)...
See Chart:


For those curious to see the change in the segments isolated.  The large decelerations of growth among the 0-64 year olds prior to the last two recessions and now the decelerating growth among the 65 to 74 year olds is disconcerting.  But the imminent shift to the majority of growth among 75+ year olds is an obvious and foreseeable economic catastrophe.
See Chart:


The chart below details the annual change in the potential work force, and given the bulk of population growth presently among 65+ and 75+ year olds, why the potential labor force growth won't budge (while the "not in labor force" will swell with 75+ year olds).  Multiplying the annual population growth by each age groups labor force participation rate, a fast decelerating population growth rate alongside the decelerating GDP growth rate is even more evident.  And it's pretty simple math to see why elevated targets of present and future GDP growth are not possible absent significantly lower rates and significantly greater debt creation.
See Chart:


The correlation of the annual population growth (multiplied by labor force participation rates among the differing age groups) within the nations that do 90% of the global consuming and drive 90% of global GDP (%, black line) plus linear trend line (dashed black line, chart below).  Economically, this trend "ain't yer friend"...but from an "investor" standpoint, BTFD as the powers that be will digitally and literally continue to go all in.
See Chart:


This is the unwinnable battle governments and central banks are fighting (infinite economic and financial growth amid a very finite population of potential consumers).  And although it is ultimately impossible to succeed, they will break any and every rule necessary, do "whatever it takes", extend and pretend, all just to kick the can one more time.  Of course, currencies, income earners, and savers will pay the price while asset holders will be made wildly wealthy...until suddenly and inexplicably (LOL), it all falls apart.
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO  ..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars & danger of WW3


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Trump Says ‘Doing Very Well’ on North Korea We create a fake monster to scare JA  & suck $
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SHOWS RT

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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to neo-fascist regimes & terrorist imperial chaos


VIENTO SUR

Nicar     Ent a Mercedes Moncada: 180 años estancados en un lago  Jesús S
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Valencià  España Un año más de impunidad fascista Ester Fayos, Paula Duran
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Brasil    Contra Bolsonaro en las calles y en las urnas   Claudio Katz
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Especial   Sustitutas
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INFORMATION CLEARING HOUSE
Deep on the US political crisis: neofascism & internal conflicts that favor WW3


NATO Hypocrisy's Twilight Zone  By Finian Cunningham    Continue
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Best Government Money Can Buy   By Philip M.Giraldi    Continue
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Everything Is A Hoax   By Paul Craig Roberts    Continue 
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The Lies Of Our (Financial) Times   By James Petras    Continue
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more business-wars from US-NATO  allies


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PRESS TV
Resume of Global News described by Iranian observers..


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