Oct 19 18 SIT
EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social
+ Capit-compet in Econ
"I hope I’m wrong, but there’s a war
coming” –
Marine Corps Commandant Gen. Robert
Neller
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ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they
documented with graphics
TODAY data on US and global
recession:
Quite a week where Chinese,
European, and US Stocks take huge rollercoaster rides to end unchanged... (with
th every visible hand of China's National Team and the magically coincident
sudden short-squeeze in the US)...
China was looking seriously ugly on the week but the worst
GDP (bar Q1 2009) print in the country's history was just what The National Team needed to start a buying-panic in Chinese
stocks..
See Chart: .. So they are good now!
And thanks to that momentum ignition
from China, European stocks scrambled back to even on the week... (Italy
ended down 1%)
See Chart:
But while US equities were aided by
the exuberant Chinese momo, selling pressure returned..
See Chart:
All the major US indices are sat
right at key technical levels...
See Charts:
Most shorted stocks was hit hard...
See Chart:
Commodity divergences suggest bond
yield should be notably lower...
See Chart:
The Dollar Index rallied on the week
(for the 3rd week in 4) - highest weekly close since June 2017
See Chart:
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“I would take the drop in used car and truck CPI as a serious warning with larger implications to
come.”
See Chart:
In the
span of 6 short weeks, the entire inventory draw has disappeared. As of today October 19th 2018,
new-vehicle inventory levels are .23% higher than on January 1st 2018 (Most of the increase has
taken place in October).
This was my exact concern when I said, “I
would take the drop in used car and truck CPI as a serious warning with larger
implications to come.”
Please keep in mind that what I’m
sharing today is a concern for
Q4 and beyond.Most auto manufacturers report earnings in the
next two weeks and the increase in production plus
decrease in incentive spending observed in Q3 should translate into strong y/y
comps.
See Chart 1: GM US
sales
See Chart 2: Ford US sales volume
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"...so we are now at
the opposite end of Awesome and not even in the zip code of a labor
shortage..."
We can thank
bubblevision and the Maestro himself for a splendid reminder yesterday that Greenspanian central banking is the greatest menace to
capitalist prosperity ever invented. This
was made abundantly clear by his pronouncement on CNBC regarding the current
labor market:
“Tightest labor market I’ve ever seen.” - Greenspan on @CNBC
By contrast, we are now at the top of the second longest business
expansion in history, and real compensation (purple line) was up just 0.7% over
the past 12 months. And that's virtually the weakest late cycle growth rate on
record.
See Chart:
In fact, at the same 3.7% so-called full employment rate
which pertained when the Maestro was riding high in the late 1990s, the labor
force participation rate was north of 67%, not today's 62.7% (September). And that means
the Maestro's alleged labor shortage rests on the back of 16.6 million workers
who have purportedly gone missing!
See Chart:
So if you want to fix the real labor market problem, remove
the fiscal subsidies and incentives for keeping potential hours off the market.
But most importantly, abolish the FOMC. It's the
mortal enemy of capitalist prosperity.
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WEF praised the US for its entrepreneurial economy and
robust financial system, but warned about signs that
its social fabric is beginning to deteriorate, while economic inequality
remains a problem...
For the first time
since the financial crisis, the US has regained its ranking as the 'World's
Most Competitive Economy', according to the World
Economic Forum's Global Competitiveness Index.
See Chart:
And while Europe and North America lead the world in
competitiveness, followed closely by East Asia and the Pacific region, Latin
America, South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa lag far behind. This
"competitiveness gap"
As always, the report included reams
of colorful charts outlining the enormous disparities in economic output,
growth and income between the developed and developing world.
See Chart 1:
And Chart 2:
The report also illustrated the
broad intraregional "competitiveness gap" between some of the best
and worst performing economies in the developing world...
See Chart:
As well as measuring the
relationship between competitiveness and income.
See Chart:
See Chart:
The report is just one more piece of evidence showing that
the US economic recovery has accelerated under President Trump. After lauding the strongest
stock-market performance in seven months on yesterday, we imagine the president
may very well want to share this news with his millions of twitter followers as
well.
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“Every once in a while, the market does something so stupid it takes your breath away...”
A $14 billion
increase on $1.68 Trillion in receipts is a very paltry 0.8% increase. This is the 8th LOWEST rate of increase in the history of
data and is more representative of population growth rather than the success of
tax cuts bringing in more revenue.
See Chart:
Well first, as we have shown previously, the tax cuts DID INDEED blow a hole
in the deficit. Currently, the deficit is
rapidly approaching $1 Trillion and will exceed that level in 2019.
See Chart:
Actually, no.
It wasn’t Trump’s tax cuts that led to this growth but, as
we discussed recently with Danielle Dimartino-Booth, it
came from a “sugar-high” created by 3-massive Hurricanes in
2017 which have required billions in monetary stimulus, created jobs in
manufacturing and construction, and led to an economic lift. We saw the
same following the Hurricanes in 2012 as well.
See Chart:
However, these “sugar highs” are temporary
in nature.
The problem is the massive surge in
unbridled deficit spending which provides a temporary illusion of economic
growth but leads to long-term economic suppression.
Eventually, the debt will come due.
Just something to think about as you catch up on your weekend reading list.
ECONOMY
& FED
- The Reason Interest Rates Remain So Low by Caroline Baum via MarketWatch
- FOMC Minutes Signal Move Above Neutral by Tyler Durden via ZeroHedge
- Austerity Hawks Are Coming For Social Security by John Nichols via The Nation
- McConnell: GOP Won’t Fix The Deficit by Jordan Weissmann via Slate
- Time To Bet On Putin by Simon Constable via Forbes
- Fed Minutes: More Rate Hikes Coming by Mike “Mish” Shedlock via MishTalk.com
- The End Of Easy Money by Charlie Bilello via Pension Partners
- Fed Reserve Obsessions Blinds Market From Dangerous Truth by John Tamny via RCM
- Stop Subsidizing Debt by Bloomberg Staff Writers
- Two Years Under Socialism Made Me Love Capitalism by Dov Fischer via American Spectator
- The Economic Cycle That Just Won’t End by John Rekenthaler via MorningStar
- Trump Vs. Fed: When Markets Crash, Who’s To Blame by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market
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MARKETS
- Guggenheim: Expect Risk Off In 2019 & A 40% Decline by Tyler Durden via Zerohedge
- There Are Big Changes Afoot In The Markets by Joe Calhoun via Alhambra Partners
- Analyst Who Predicted 2008 Crash Warns Of Next Bubble by Barbara Kollmeyer via MarketWatch
- Gundlach’s Best Investing Advice by Karl Kaufman via Forbes
- Are Credit Spreads Still A Leading Indicator by Pater Tenebrarum via Acting Man blog
- Highly Unusual Breadth by Dana Lyons via The Lyons Share
- Why You Should Be Skeptical About Forecasts by Erik Conley via Zen Investor
- Market Carnage Has Investors Fleeing Bonds by Ryan Vlastelica via MarketWatch
- Tuesday’s Big Upside Move Was A Sucker’s Rally by Michael Markowski via BullsNBears
- There Are A Lot Of Stocks Down 50% From Highs by Philip Van Doorn via MarketWatch
- When Will Chasing Hot Stocks Stop Working by Kevin Muir via The Macro Tourist
- Market Corrections Aren’t Fun, But Normal by Jonathon Trugman via NY Post
- Markets Are Broken & Nothing Is Working by Robert Burgess via Bloomberg
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MOST READ
ON RIA
- Is A Year-End Rally Still Possible by Lance Roberts
- Why The Fed’s Monetary Policy Is Still Accommodative by Michael Lebowitz
- VLOG: Why U.S. Household Wealth Is In A Bubble by Jesse Colombo
- FIRE’d Up – A Million Ain’t What It Used To Be by Lance Roberts
- Closed-End Fund Discounts by John Coumarianos
- The Market Isn’t The Economy – Snapshot From The Depression by Richard Rosso
- Why The U.S. Is Following The Same Path As Japan by Lance Roberts
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RESEARCH /
INTERESTING READS
- The US Housing Recovery Is Built On Quicksane by Keith Jurow via MarketWatch
- The Big Blockchain Lie by Nouriel Roubini via Project Syndicate
- Hello! May I Assist You With A Lifetime Of Debt? by Elena Valenzuela-Stookey via NYT
- GE’s Looming Dividend Cut by Political Calcuations
- Art, Tech Stocks & The Financial Canary’s Last Gasp by Merryn Somerset Webb via MoneyWeek
- China’s Great Leap Backwards by Jonathan Tepperman via Foreign Policy
- Is Your Bank Ready For The Next Crisis by William Bladwin via Forbes
- The “No Growth” Prescription For Misery by Bjorn Lomborg via Project Syndicate
- 5-G – The Most Disruptive Event Is Here by Stephen McBride via Risk Hedge
- Bad Financial Moon Rising by William White via Project Syndicate
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US
DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds
& corruption. Urge cambio
The masters of electoral fraud GOT
CAUGHT
"Your
voter registration application is inside.
Complete, sign and return it today!" See fotocopy
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In March
Putin claimed to have a nuclear-powered, nuclear-tipped drone that can't be
shot down and is always lurking.
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"Hillary
remains caught up in the delusion that
the only reason she lost in 2016 was because of Russian interference."
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US-WW ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol
& global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State
socialis+K-, D rest in limbo
"The absolute confidence that China's political structure is
permanent and forever”
See Chart:
Financialization
fuel expending
Nearly
all the eggs in one basket
See Chart:
A surge
in global credit driven by China
See Chart:
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Si cae pantalón.. cae el calzón .. de
todo el sistema neoliberal.
But.. “there is not imminent implosión” see the last Chart
"China's predicament and reaction to it are not particularly unique...but given China's size, the ultimate global impact of China's slow motion train wreck will be
unprecedented..."
See Chart:
And the coming decade only worsens as the young population
continues its unabated fall and debt creation (absent concomitant economic growth) continues soaring... building more capacity
all for a population that is set to collapse?!?
See Chart:
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The U.N.
says war is coming: "Gaza is imploding. This is not hyperbole.
This is not alarmism. It is a reality."
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO
..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars & danger of WW3
Washington Post Columnist Jamal Khashoggi
Died in Fight in Istanbul Consulate - Saudi Prosecutor General So: Saudis are humanists but they
defend themselves.. Can you bel this St
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Bravo.. Make Peace NO war
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Canada
Working to Resettle Group of White Helmets Just disolved
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Stupid theater.. who is making money with this b..t
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RT SHOWS
ICYMI with Polly Boiko ICYMI:
Jamal Khashoggi: One very awkward ‘death’ for the geopolitical hypocrites
(VIDEO)
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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to neo-fascist regimes &
terrorist imperial chaos
REBELION
BRA G Almeyra: Bolsonaro expresa necesidad del gran
capital financiero
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ALAI NET
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RT EN
ESPAÑOL
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COUNTER PUNCH
Analysis on US Politics & Geopolitics
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Maria
Foscarinis – John Tharp The
Criminalization of Homelessness
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Rev.
William Alberts Judge
Kavanaugh’s Defenders Doth Protest Too Much
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more
business-wars from US-NATO allies
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Haiti: Nearly a Million People Took to the Streets.
They Want the Western-imposed government out of Haiti By Ezili Dantò,
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DEMOCRACY NOW
Focus on Trump policies & the Econ & Pol crisis
inside US
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PRESS TV
Resume of Global News described by Iranian observers..
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