miércoles, 31 de octubre de 2018

Oct 31 18 SIT EC y POL



Oct 31  18  SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Econ


ZERO HEDGE  ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics


Global Equity Market Capitalization:
Eight. Trillion. Dollars...
SEE Chart :


AND IT'S GONE...
Listen Video:

OCTOBER'S CARNAGE AT-A-GLANCE...
  • Nasdaq 100 worst month since Oct 2008
  • S&P worst month since Feb 2009 (lowest monthly close since April)
  • FANG stocks crashed 21% in October - the biggest monthly drop on record
  • Semis plunged almost 15%, the biggest monthly drop since Nov 2008
  • "Most Shorted" stocks down 13.8% in October - worst month since Jan 2016 (or best for shorts)
  • S&P Financials dropped over 7% in October - worst month since Jan 2016
  • GSIBs (Global Systemically Important Banks) dropped over 10% in October, worst month since June 2016 (Brexit)
  • China worst month since Jan 2016
  • European stocks worst month since Jan 2016
  • Hedge Funds were hammered as Goldman's VIP Basket plummeted 11.5% in October - its biggest drop ever.
  • Stocks and Bonds both fell on the month (first time since Feb 2018)
  • This is the worst October for Junk bonds since 2008 (HYG saw record volume in October)
  • USD's biggest monthly gain since Nov 2016 (Trump election)
  • USD and Gold both rallied for first month since Feb 2017
  • Gold's biggest monthly gain against Yuan since June 2016
  • Oil's worst month since July 2016

While the world's stocks (ex-US) are down almost 13% YTD, US equities are unchanged (erasing the entire year's gains in October)...
See Chart:


We note that today's ramp was not a short-squeeze per se as "Most Shorted" stocks actually fell on the day. October was the biggest drop for "Most Shorted" stocks since Jan 2016...
See Chart:


Bigger picture themes show growth stocks underperforming value stocks by the most since March 2001...Russell 1000 Growth/Value breaking below its 200DMA for the first time since March 2017...
See Chart:


FANG Stocks suffered their worst month ever...
See Chart:


Nasdaq stocks have plunged as one with intra-index correlation soaring in October...
See Chart:


Stocks and bonds both fell on the month - first time since Feb 2018... 
See Chart:


The Dollar surged over 2.3% in October -0 its biggest month since Nov 2016 (election) to April 2017 highs...
See Chart:


Despite the strong dollar, gold managed gains in October as crude was crushed...
See Chart:
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"For most Americans it is as if the last recession never ended, and things just seem to keep getting worse..."

‘We were shocked to find out it’s only 38 percent of people who get the middle class life or better,’ said Ryan Bhandari, a policy advisor for Third Way, in an interview with DailyMail.com.
It is no wonder why so many people are shopping at Wal-Mart and the Dollar Tree these days.
For many Americans, those are the literally the only places they can afford to shop.
SEE Chart:


When I was growing up, it seemed like literally everyone else around me was “middle class”, but now those days are long gone.  Here is a breakdown of some more of the numbers from this latest study
  • 30 percent of jobs are “hardship jobs,” meaning they don’t allow a single adult to make ends meet.
  • 32 percent are “living wage” jobs, enough to get by but not to take vacations, save for retirement or live in a moderately priced home.
  • 23 percent are middle-class jobs, allowing for dining out, modest vacations and putting some money away for retirement.
  • 15 percent are “professional jobs,” paving the way for a more comfortable life that includes more elaborate vacations and entertainment and a more expensive home.
It sure must be nice to be in that top 15 percent.
See Chart:


America needs a strong middle class, but currently our middle class is disintegrating at a startling pace.
If we are not able to reverse this trend,
what is the future going to look like for our society?
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“...by continuing a process of inflation,government can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens.”

Historical Price Levels

The chart below is a graph of price levels in the United States since 1774. In anticipation of a reader questioning the comparison of the prices and types of goods and services available in 1774 with 2018, the data behind this chart compares the basics of life. People ate food, needed housing, and required transportation in 1774 just as they do today. While not perfect, this chart offers a reasonable comparison of the relative cost of living from one period to the next.
See Chart:


Cantillon Effect

The graph below uses the same data as the price level graph above but depicts yearly changes in prices.
See Chart:
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2007 sub prime loans. 2018 corporate junk bonds and leveraged loans. 2007 banks and SPVs funded by the banks. 2018?

 This week, GE issued a profit warning and cut its dividend to share holders from 12 cents to 1 cent. It is only the third time since the Great Depression that GE has reduced its dividend in this way. It told its share holders it would be taking a $22 Billion charge because one of its units, its power unit, is in deep trouble.
See Chart:


Today it is not the banking world which stands at the centre of the storm but the corporate world. In the last years they have flooded the market with junk rated bonds. At the same time they are also burdened with high yielding, leveraged and covenant- lite loans. Taken together they are about $2.4 Trillion of debt.
See Chart:


2007 sub prime loans. 2018 corporate junk bonds and leveraged loans. 2007 banks and SPVs funded by the banks. 2018?

Where is this sub-prime corporate debt sitting today?
See Chart:
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"So far the focus has been on how many of those seats Democrats can hold, but they are all competitive races, and it is certainly possible that the Republicans increase their majority instead."

Under a Republican-controlled Congress we might see slightly more fiscal stimulus, but only on the order of a couple of tenths of a percentage point of GDP. That’s because heightened political sensitivity around the rising deficit will constrain lawmakers from much further action. So under Republican control of both chambers, we might see a small additional tax cut partly offset by more restraint on spending, for example.
See Charts:


Allison Nathan: Would any of the possible election outcomes materially impact your base case of fading fiscal stimulus?

Alec Phillips: Probably not. Regardless of the outcome, the midterms are unlikely to substantially change the medium-term path of fiscal policy; we would still expect the fiscal boost of 0.75-1.00pp of GDP in 2H 2018 to fade to about neutral over the next couple of years. In the base-case scenario of a divided Congress, we don’t expect any changes to taxes, but see slightly more spending coming out of the budget deal Congress will have to negotiate next year for fiscal years 2020-21. Under a Republican-controlled Congress we might see slightly more fiscal stimulus, but only on the order of a couple of tenths of a percentage point of GDP. That’s because heightened political sensitivity around the rising deficit will constrain lawmakers from much further action. So under Republican control of both chambers, we might see a small additional tax cut partly offset by more restraint on spending, for example.
See Chart:

Read the whole interview at
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"War is a racket..."

GET THIS:

defense shifted from contracting at a 2.1% annual rate between June 2009 and March 2017, to growing at a 2.9% rate since April 2017. The turnaround added 0.21 percentage points on average to the nation’s overall economic growth rate, according to Commerce Department figures.

Defense outlays grew 6% in the fiscal year that ended Sept. 30, thanks in part to a bipartisan budget agreement to boost government spending this year and next by nearly $300 billion above limits set in a 2011 law, including $165 billion more for military.
See Chart:
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China has been free-riding the entire time...
Now Trump and Mnuchin are saying,“Enough!”
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"...the reckoning could be closer than I thought."
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US  DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambio



"TURN AROUND!"
RELATED

"...the emphasis will not be on keeping non-productive people out, it will be on keeping productive people in."
ONE MORE:

"Nobody is coming in. We're not allowing people to come in"
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"We're going to have to recognize if nations are not willing to live by those rules...we're going to have the ability to defend, and the ability to do offense..."
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US-WW ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State socialis+K-, D rest in limbo



Some lessons for bond bears from the land of the rising sun...
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO  ..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars & danger of WW3


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RT SHOWS

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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to neo-fascist regimes & terrorist imperial chaos

REBELION

BRA        Apuntes primarios tras la victoria de Bolsonaro…   Kintto Lucas
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Yemen     Reflexiones sobre un Estado “débil”  Kamilia Al-Erani
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ALC        El ocaso de los progresismos  Andrés Borrello
                Panamá, el reino de la desigualdad social  Olmedo Beluche
Cuba      Verdad de Cuba frente al bloqueo  Wilkie Delgado
USA       Dos palabras   David Brooks
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ALAI NET

VEN       Radiografía del asedio    Geraldina Colotti  
                La judicialización llegó a Colombia   Emir Sader  
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RT EN ESPAÑOL

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INFORMATION CLEARING HOUSE
Deep on the US political crisis: neofascism & internal conflicts that favor WW3


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The Hypocrisy of the United States   By Robert Fantina
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Fascism on the March   By Peter Koenig
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more business-wars from US-NATO  allies


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DEMOCRACY NOW
Focus on Trump policies & the Econ & Pol crisis inside US


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PRESS TV
Resume of Global News described by Iranian observers..


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Programs   Pictures That Shake The World-31- Muhammad al-Durrah, murder of the Palestinian child in his father’s arms by ISR forces who open fire on Palestinian demonstrators.
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