Oct 18 18 SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social +
Capit-compet in Econ
ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they
documented with graphics
"...
all these quantitative trading
systems are destroying the structure of the market you know
particularly that group that buy strength and sells weakness..."
Basically the things I look at which
suggest that the market is OK is not cheap but it’s not too expensive .. you
know it’s not an exciting message when I tell you the markets are in a zone of
fair valuation. Basically it doesn’t excite you .. but that’s the
kind of situate where we’re at.
[Is it more
expensive relative to where interest rates are likely to go. Is it that…
the big issue here is the biggest fear that
people that you bring are going to be put up right now.]
I think all this fixation on interest
rates is misplaced [and I show
the following chart]:
See Chart:
And the message is abundantly clear. Real
interest rates for five, six, seven, eight, nine hundred basis points [is a
path to] recessions like in the past. Real interest rates today are zero. The Fed has been
extraordinarily accommodative. So you know the market can easily handle the rise in
interest rates as long as the slope of the rise is gradual. The pricing structure in the market allows for a rise in
rates.
This art is very bat written.. it needs
to be re-write by Tyler Durden
….
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US DOMESTIC
POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds &
corruption. Urge cambio
With the elections less than three
weeks away, the latest takeaway is that expectations
for the Republicans to retain control of the Senate has markedly increased.
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THIS INVESTOR is not anymore with Trump for several reasons. Check
his view:
"In game theory, the worst setup is a
situation where all players believe they have the upper hand. It usually
results in both sides seeing it through right to the end (however unpleasant
the final scene is)..."
I want to speak about the recent “trade
wars” that the Trump administration has set in motion. There can be no
denying that America has ventured down a road of adversarial trade
renegotiations not seen in decades. I am not making any judgments about this
policy - it is what it is. But to think it doesn’t have
profound implications for your portfolio would be naive.
Collision course with China
Let’s start with the obvious. Trump can insult Canadian leader
Justin Trudeau all he wants, but it won’t stop us Canadians from making a deal.
Sure, we won’t like it, but we will bite our lip and negotiate the best
agreement possible.
Yet Trump’s tactics don’t play as well in China. In Asia, saving
face is much more important, and it is foolish to believe the Chinese
government will be anywhere near as accepting to Trump’s insults and
antagonistic behavior.
Many market strategists are convinced China will be forced to
acquiesce due to U.S. stocks’ outperformance versus Chinese stocks since
Trump’s ramping up of trade tensions. They believe this to be a signal of
America’s stronger hand.
See Chart:
I call B.S. on the idea that China’s recent stock market
underperformance means they are desperate for a deal. Not a chance. If anything, Trump’s Adm needs a deal as
a serious trade war could result in severe market
disruption which would be much more meaningful to Republicans’ chance of reelection.
On the other hand, Xi has no such worry.
Trump administration steps up
the pressure
Most strategists blame the equity market sell off on the bond
market’s recent weakness. The common narrative is that
we finally hit the tipping-point where interest rates affected the real
economy. Maybe. .. But maybe
there was something more ominous going on. The stock
market started sliding on October 4th.
See Chart:
I believe trade tensions were the real reason for the recent
stock market decline. Sure, all those other reasons cited in the
media helped the decline accelerate, but many of those reasons have existed for
quite some time.
What changed on October 4th was that it became clear to those who
watch markets closely that the chances of a Chinese-American trade deal had
greatly diminished.
Dangerous setup
As I previously mentioned, I used to think the recent Trump
aggression was merely tactics before his government cut a deal at the last
moment. And although I don’t discount that possibility entirely, I now believe
that outcome is less likely.
In game theory, the worst setup is a
situation where all players believe they have the upper
hand. It usually results in both sides seeing it through
right to the end (however unpleasant the final scene is).
Neither China
nor the U.S. is ready to blink. Both sides think the
other guy has more to lose. If that is the case, then there will be a lot more
pain in the financial markets before the problem is resolved.
Time to lighten up
Over the past few months, I have been somewhat more bullish on
equities than many of my hedge-fund-brethren. Yet, for the first time in a
while, I am worried. I hear all sorts of calls for a year end rally that they
are planning on selling into.
Could this happen? For sure. But I am not nearly confident
anymore.
And especially when it comes
to the American market. It has been screaming higher versus the rest of the
world for the past couple of years. It’s due for a pause.
I have a
bunch of other trades that I want to implement based on this theory, but I will
save that for another day… except to say, gold priced
in CNH is breaking out for a reason...
See Chart: ‘Weaker yuan’?
…
…
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US-WW ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State
socialis+K-, D rest in limbo
"If
what has been alleged occurred, if an innocent person lost their life at the
hands of violence, that's to be
condemned..."
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An unprecedented volume of Iranian
crude oil is set to arrive at China’s northeast Dalian port this month and in
early November before U.S. sanctions on Iran take effect.
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What was already an ugly day
for emerging markets, turned even uglier for Brazil when Bloomberg reported
that the head of Brazil's central bank, Ilan Goldfajn, was preparing to leave
the central bank by year-end.
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO ..Focus
on neoliberal expansion via wars & danger of WW3
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RT SHOWS
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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to neo-fascist regimes &
terrorist imperial chaos
REBELION
Nace el “Journal
of Feminist, Gender and Women Studies”
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Chile A Pinochet “Sus crímenes son imprescriptibles: hay que
enjuiciarlo
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Cuba En la ONU se gritó ¡Fuera
Almagro! Ramón Pedregal Casanova
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ALAI NET
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RT EN ESPAÑOL
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Lo creo la ignorancia
y sirvió para entronizar reyes y dictadores y bendecir sus guerras
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Si la mujer los tiene de difer longit podría ser lesbiana o bisexual y el
hombre homosexual. Solo si ambos tienen el índice y el anular de la misma
longitud podrían ser heterosexuales.
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INFORMATION CLEARING HOUSE
Deep on the US political crisis: neofascism & internal
conflicts that favor WW3
Trump’s Alliance with Body-Choppers, Death
Squads and Child Killers: Saudi Arabia, Brazil and Israel By Prof. James Petras Continue
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Khashoggi Is Not The Only Reason The US
Should Cut Its Saudi Ties By
M Benjamin n M Miller
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Khashoggi: What the Arab World Needs Most is
Free Expression By Jamal
Khashoggi
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Iran Deserves Credit for the Ruin of ISIS By Scott Ritter Continue
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Does Putin Have A Traitor In His Government? By Paul Craig Roberts Continue
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The Collapse of the American Empire? By Ch Hedges and S Paikin Continue
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Toda supression
de la libertad es fascism. Las guerras son via segura al fascim. Continue
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COUNTER PUNCH
Analysis on US Politics & Geopolitics
Erik Molvar The
Ten Big Lies of Traditional Western Politics
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Jeffrey St. Clair
Lockheed
n Loaded: How Maker of Junk Fighters capture Defense
Industry
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Lawrence Davidson Israel’s
“Psychological Obstacles to Peace”
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Manuel García, Jr. The
Inner Dimensions of Socialist Revolution
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more business-wars
from US-NATO allies
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DEMOCRACY NOW
Focus on Trump policies & the Econ & Pol crisis inside US
EL TRUMPISM INVADIO DEMOCRACY NOW (DN) de Amy Goodman
Fue Trump quien
inicio el ataque a la raiz nativa de Elizabeth Warren
Le siguió un
neo-facista que también dijo tener raíces indígenas. De
hecho hay
muchos blancos que si tienen raíz indígena. EW es una.
Adonde
apunta el ataque de Amy Goodman: a resucitar el ghost Hillary,
La mujer que
no tuvo escrúpulos en venderse al jihadismo Saudi cuando
se asesinó a
Gadafi, lo que ella celebro con risa pública. Mientras tanto
Hillary desatendió
el pedido de apoyo a la embajada USA en Bengazi
sitiada por
yijadistas Saudis. A Hillary le interesaba el dinero de estos.
No la nación
Americ. Luego vino el asesinato del cónsul y dev3 más en
Bengazi.
Hillary incurrió así en ineficiencia criminal por no atenderlos.
Yo también tengo
raíces indígenas, desciendo de los quechuas de Perú y
pido a los
nativos de esta -mi 2da patria- que no se dejen manipular por
judía Amy Goodman
–fue buena periodista pero hoy de vieja traiciona-
y se vende al
dinero de Soros y los Clinton. Estos y sobre todo la pedófila
Hillary –denunciada
así por un agente de la CIA- son los que están detrás
de los
ataques de Trump y Amy G a la senadora E Warren.
Es triste ver la metamorfosis
de gente que fue de Izq y que al final traiciona.
Solo ocurre
en tiempos
de crisis imperial como la que vivimos hoy. Es este el tiempo
de ser más
cautos en la selección de nuestros candidatos y de la gente que
está detrás de
ellos. A la senadora Warren le temen porque no es corrupta
como ellos,
es una verdadera mujer que si merece apoyo de los nativos.
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PRESS TV
Resume of Global News described by Iranian observers..
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