Oct 15 18 SIT
EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y
propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Econ
ELIZABETH WARREN PRESIDENTE:
Increíble pero cierto.. Trump (T) le acaba de abrir las puertas del
poder a quien más detesta y pretendió deshumanizar: a la mujer. La mujer está
hoy representada por Elizabeth Warren (EW), la senadora que aportara el sexto
sentido de la intuición política para acabar con las pretensiones guerreristas
y neo-fascistas del T y su WW3. T se cerró las puertas a la reelección a la que
aspiraba el 2020 y las abrió de par en par a quien quiso deshumanizar y negar su
pasado.
Quijotesco como ayer.. quien quiso destruir un molino de viento termino
creando el futuro de millones de los molinos que hoy vemos blandiendo sus
espadas contra la polución mundial y el mal trato que se dio a la madre tierra.
Estoy seguro de que E W sabrá responder las tareas políticas que le
encomienda la historia americana: lograr el balance x-y que se requiere para
enfrentar el libertinaje neoliberal que nos hundió en la crisis económica que hoy
empiezan a sufrir las naciones del mundo entero. Crisis que solo beneficia al
-1% de billonarios del mundo.. cuya avaricia glutonesca no tiene límites.
Se requiere por cierto un NEW DEAL y a nivel mundial, como el que uso
FDR para frenarlos. El eje central del nuevo New Deal debe ser la PAZ mundial, el NO al WW3. Pero
esta vez ya no será un hombre quien lidere el pacifismo nacional y mundial.
Este Mov aspira a la protección de nuestros hijos y de su futuro, no los
queremos lisiados ni contaminados con DU, los queremos sanos. Por esta razón es
la intuición femenina la llamada por la historia. Esto es lo que representa EW
para el país y el mundo entero.
La otra tarea de EW, es lograr el balance capital-trabajo
(labor-finanzas) que reclamaron los grandes economistas (labor-capital son las
2 caras de una misma moneda, si una se devalúa, la otra también). Ese balance tiene
que ser logrado asap si no queremos que la recesión mundial en camino nos
asesine.
La otra gran tarea es corregir el error anti-feminista y bien pagado en
la prensa mercenaria nacional, me refiero al mob que cedió la batuta política a
los Clinton y otros billonarios, los que por fortuna son ya cadáver en la política
nacional. De lo que se trata es de restablecer los DH y laborales que el
sistema neoliberal niega a ambos hombre y mujeres (y a estas más que a ellos).
A propósito de T.. vale hacerle una preguntas en público, lo que muchos
nos hacemos en privado: Es acaso ciertos que los ancestros de T ingresaron a América legalmente? No ocurrió así con el común de los pilgrims:
esta es una nación de mayoría migrante. La pregunta vale.
Y si los ancestros de T -antes de venir- fueron ya familia de fortuna..
trataron ellos bien al labor que usaron para seguir acumulándo? Lo hizo T en el
US? Dio el salario y trato justo a hombres y mujeres? .. sobre todo a ellas?
Y la pregunta final: recibieron los ancestros de Trump el trato que hoy
da T a los nuevos migrantes?.. No sabe acaso T que separar a una madre de sus
hijos es totalmente inhumano e ilegal y encarcelar a los niños lo es más aun?
Si no lo sabe, hay que recordarle al T que esa fue la práctica de los
nazis que hoy se detesta en el mundo entero empezando por la misma Alemania donde
hoy su población se vuelca a la calles contra la re-emergencia del nazismo en Europa.
Generar este Mov anti-neo-nazismo es también una tarea que EW debe
iniciar pronto en nuestra nación.
ELIZABETH WARREN PRESIDENTE!. La historia del US te
llama y hay que cumplir!.
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ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over.
Financiers know it, they documented with graphics
[[ We waste billions of USD in incentive provided by the Trump tax reform
to repatriate the estimated US$3 trillion held by US corp offshore. We create a
fake growth (full of inflation) and the benefits
of this tax reform are uncertain if we invested in war against RU to eliminate
their competition in energy policies (2 days ago we saw the ani-RU phobia in
Ukraine, the place in which ultra-neo-nazis took control of the Govt) .. Who
are our allies in this pro-WW3? .. of course Saudis + ISR who has interest in
the oil from Syria and Iran and UK banks & mercenary mafias. Meanwhile.. the inflation inside
America goes up & up..who suffer it? the US Nation ]]
Read this:
"...it is a decline in asset prices, not conventional 'overheating' concerns,which
is the biggest risk to the American economy and indeed the world economy, given
that asset inflation has been the
prime driver of growth in the developed world since the global financial crisis..."
There have recently been some dramatic
moves in America’s bond market where the US Treasury bond market broke through
a 37-year trend line on the upside in yield terms when
the 10-year Treasury bond yield rose above the 3% level (see following chart).
It is now 3.16%.
US 10-YEAR TREASURY BOND YIELD (LOG SCALE)
See Chart:
Source:
Bloomberg
The
ostensible trigger for the bond sell-off was a strong non-manufacturing ISM
number which rose to the highest level since 1997.
THE STEEPENING
US YIELD CURVE POINTS TO FED RATE HIKES
From a more near-term perspective, the
renewed steepening of the US yield curve also raises the potential for a
greater number of Fed rate hikes than currently envisaged by the markets. The
spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury bond yields has risen from a
recent low of 19bp reached in late August to 31bp (see following chart). That, in turn, raises
the probability of more casualties in Asia and emerging markets from the current Fed tightening cycle. Oil’s continuing
strength also means that, in many respects, Asian economies are more vulnerable
as oil consumers than many other parts of the emerging world.
US YIELD CURVE (10Y-2Y TREASURY BOND YIELD SPREAD)
See Chart:
Source:
Bloomberg
DECLINING MONEY
SUPPLY
The impact of this US monetary
tightening, which combines both rising interest rates and ongoing Federal
Reserve balance sheet contraction, can be seen clearly in declining money-supply
growth in America.
US M2
growth has slowed from 7.5%YoY in October 2016 to 4%YoY in September (see following chart). Still, there is considerable
evidence that the squeeze on US-dollar
funding has been much greater offshore than in America because of another bullish consequence of tax reform for American
corporates and indeed for the American economy and stock market this year. That
is the increased incentive provided by the Trump administration’s tax reform to
repatriate the estimated US$3 trillion held by US corporates offshore.
See Chart:
US M2 GROWTH
Source:
Federal Reserve
While
reinvested earnings in foreign affiliates declined from US$167 billion in 2H17
to a negative US$210 billion in 1H18, meaning repatriation of dividends has
exceeded current-period earnings (see
following chart). To make the repatriation point crystal
clear, the Bureau of Economic Analysis stated in its balance of payments
announcement in September:
The large magnitudes for dividends and withdrawals and the negative
reinvested earnings reflect the repatriation of accumulated earnings by foreign
affiliates of US multinational enterprises to their parent companies in the
United States in response to the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA).
See Chart:
US DIRECT INVESTMENT INCOME RECEIPTS: DIVIDENDS AND REINVESTED EARNINGS
Green: reinvested
earnings Blue: dividends and withdrawals
Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis – International Transactions
Accounts
REPATRIATION
AND SHARE BUYBACKS
Repatriation
is also suggested by the continuing surge in American corporates’ share
buybacks which some Wall Street pundits are now suggesting could reach as much
as US$1 trillion this year. S&P500 companies’ actual share buybacks surged by 59%YoY to a
record US$190.6 billion in 2Q18, following US$189 billion of buybacks in 1Q18
(see following chart).
See Chart:
HOLDINGS OF US TREASURY SECURITIES BY LOW TAX JURISDICTIONS
Note:
Include Ireland, Switzerland, the Netherlands, Bermuda and Bahamas. Source: US
Treasury – Treasury International Capital (TIC) System
See Chart
S&P500 SHARE BUYBACKS
THE BOTTOM LINE
FOR THE US ECONOMY
The issue now remains whether US cyclical
momentum, in terms of both earnings and GDP growth, is peaking. The base case here remains that cyclical momentum has
probably peaked, but that America
is more likely to slow back to the trend real GDP growth rate of 2.2%
prevailing since 2009 prior to the tax cut than enter an outright recession. And that any such renewed
slowdown is likely to lead to a stepped-up effort by Donald Trump to implement
his infrastructure agenda in the second half of his administration; though the
practical ability to do that will be influenced significantly by the outcome of
the November mid-term elections.
Meanwhile, America is unlikely to face an outright
recession, as opposed to a slowdown to trend growth, without the negative
catalyst of a financial shock. And this financial shock will need to be
reflected in a surge in credit spreads. In this
respect, anyone investing in equities by tracking money supply growth will have
sold too early, since US money supply measures have been trending down since
4Q16. Rising credit
spreads, however, are the signal that monetary tightening is hitting the real
world and that it has become time to sell. And the more the Fed tightens, the
bigger the risk of such a shock.
This raises the question of where
the private-sector borrowing has been in this cycle. The answer at the macro
level is that the US corporate sector has increased debt while the household
sector has reduced it, relative to GDP. Thus, nonfinancial corporate debt
as a percentage of GDP has risen from a low of 39.7% at the end of 2010 to a
record 46.2% in 2Q18, while the household debt to GDP ratio has declined from a
peak of 98.4% in 1Q08 to 75.4% in 2Q18, the lowest level since 2Q02 (see
following chart).
See Chart:
US
NON-FINANCIAL CORPORATE DEBT AND HOUSEHOLD DEBT AS % OF GDP
Source: CLSA, Bureau of Economic Analysis,
Federal Reserve
It is
also the case that much of this corporate debt has been extended in this cycle
outside the highly regulated banking system, as can be seen in the continuing
relatively sluggish growth in American banks’ commercial and industrial
(C&I) loans.
C&I loan growth was 5.2%YoY in early
October. Still, that does not mean that there has been no borrowing. There are estimates of around US$3 trillion of
speculative-grade floating rate corporate debt in America of which over US$1
trillion are so-called “leveraged loans”, many of them “covenant-lite”
loans.
Many of these loans have been pooled
together in tranches and bought by so-called credit funds, which are the
fixed-income appendage of the booming private-equity fund industry.
See Chart:
US BANKS’ COMMERCIAL AND INDUSTRIAL (C&I) LOAN GROWTH
Source:
Federal Reserve
A problem in the above area or another
one is the sort of shock that can trigger a risk-off move in markets and a Fed
U-turn, in terms of monetary policy. This is because surging credit spreads
raise the risk of an asset deflation cycle since they indicate forced
deleveraging. And it is a decline in asset prices, not
conventional “overheating” concerns, which is the biggest risk to the American
economy and indeed the world economy, given that asset inflation has been the
prime driver of growth in the developed world since the global financial crisis
10 years ago on the back of such a long period of ultra-easy monetary policy.
…
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SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-10-15/chris-wood-biggest-risk-world-economy-not-what-you-think
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US DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete;
it’s full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambio
[[ Free press for EW.. the lies on her don’t affect her candidacy to the
Presid..it is on reverse ]]
"Senator Warren is undermining tribal interests
with her continued claims of tribal
heritage"
[[ We all know that brothers Koch.. the benefactor of Trump energy
policies.. affected native populats and that .. US army responded en their
support. That was real National patriotism ]]
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"Containment
around Hillary’s crimes has been breached and all that’s left now
is for the people close to her to start
turning on each other. The mid-terms were their last, best hope for
a stay of execution."
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Political div inside is growing up &
up.. that won’t be solved by WW3..it will make it worse
"Let’s 'Make America Great Again' by making Donald Trump a failed casino operator
again..."
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"We are at a
potential inflection point where the economy is moving from hot to
mediocre..."
Assuming developments in the geopolitical
realm continue progressing along their current path, maybe
Prince's boss's '1937' thesis will be proven correct.
See Figure:
…
Source: https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/trade%20war_2_3.jpg?itok=K5mgbcy6
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Here more delicacies from MOB’
inspiration
...a
2018 SCAD graduate, started the petition, titled, “Take A Sexual Predator’s Name Off of SCAD’s
Building,”
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US-WW ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol
& global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran
search for State socialis+K-, D rest in limbo
"We
are moving from synchronized growth to economic divergence." - Bank of France Governor Francois Villeroy
de Galhau
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In war-time.. Allies changed
unexpectedly.. history say so.. it could happen again
There
are not one, not two, but three
'weapons' on the "nuclear option" menufor Saudi Arabia to
strike back at any US sanctions stemming from its alleged murder and
dismemberment of dissident journalist Jamal Khashoggi's "botched
interrogation."
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Big Corp financing electoral fraud is
still the main lethal interference in US democ election
"...as far as making the election more
resistant to interference, the
result of the Alternative Media Purge is the diametric opposite. People
will now only get one side of the story."
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO ..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars &
danger of WW3
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Does it means nothing happens?.. It
happens: KAV did it .. He saved Trump
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It will happens here too .. duopoly
system is in severe crisis.. independents are going up
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The best solution is the US and Turkey OUT
OF SYRIA asap
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FALSE: a united FRONT is in process
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Una raya más en un tigre muy enfermo no cambia la historia
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RT SHOWS
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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to
neo-fascist regimes & terrorist imperial chaos
REBELION
-Arg 24 de
octubre CTA
convoca Paro Nacional cont Presupues 2019
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ALAI NET
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RT EN ESPAÑOL
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Especial Esto es China: al ritmo
de Chongqing
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INFORMATION CLEARING HOUSE
Deep on the US political crisis:
neofascism & internal conflicts that favor WW3
Putin-Rouhani Deal to Ensure Iran Evades US Sanctions By
TOI staff and Agencies
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Trump Insulted Bin Salman, so He Retaliated Against Khashoggi By Dr. Amira Abo el-Fetouh
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Saudi Regime Threatens Retaliation For Any Punishment By Jon Gambrell
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that
leads to more business-wars from US-NATO
allies
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DEMOCRACY NOW
Focus on Trump policies & the Econ
& Pol crisis inside US
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PRESS TV
Resume of Global News described by
Iranian observers..
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