Oct 28 18 SIT
EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social
+ Capit-compet in Econ
ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they
documented with graphics
The “difference this time,” is
significant...
Over the last three weeks, as
interest rates surged above 3%, we explored the question of whether something
had “just broken” in the market.
- Did Something Just Break? 10-05-18
- Yes, Something Just Broke 10-12-18
- Market Clings To Support – 10-19-18
What has been different this year so far, is that bonds, while they have reduced the volatility of the
recent decline in the S&P 500 index, have not contributed to portfolio
returns this year so far. So, the only place to hide has been cash.
However, if we take a look at
the market from 2009 to present, we can gain some better context.
See Chart:
Currently,
the correction, while painful in the short-term has been nothing more than a correction
back to the running bullish trend.
So why worry?
The “difference
this time,” is significant:
- The Fed is hiking rates versus either lowering or keeping them at zero.
- The Fed is reducing rather than increasing their balance sheet.
- The current Administration is insisting on a “trade war” which slows global growth.
- The economic cycle is mature rather than recovering.
- Record levels of debt at risk of rising rates versus a re-leveraging cycle with ultra-low rates.
- A mature housing, auto, and consumption cycle versus a recovery.
- Global central bank interventions have begun to taper versus expansion
- Peak earnings growth versus expansion
- Peak valuations versus expanding valuations
Meaning:
Here are some simple observations from Doug Kass (click
here for recent interview) which dovetails into the following
market analysis.
- The S&P Index and most non U.S. equity markets are broken technically.
- The worldwide fundamental outlook (economies and profits) are worse than are generally expected by the consensus.
- Few still believe a large equity markdown is likely.
- The consequences of a pivot in monetary policy in the U.S. (and elsewhere) is understated and not understood by many.
- There are now legitimate alternatives to stocks available in risk-free Treasuries. Those yields only recently have exceeded the S&P dividend yield.
- Stocks don’t go down in a straight line – it usually looks like a jagged line.
- We are in a new regime of volatility.
- A changing market structure – in which passive money overwhelms active money – remains a significant market risk and disruptive influence.
Daily
View
In early October, the market broke the bottom of the
previous short-term bullish trend channel and tested initial support at the
61.8% retracement level of the push higher from the April lows. That move
failed at the 38.2% retracement level and has now violated previous support
this past week. This is not a good development and suggests that a failed rally
back to that previous support will set the markets up for a retest of the April
lows.
Action: Sell any rally next week.
See Chart:
See also:
Monthly View..
Actions To Take
Next Week
And read
33 comments
At:
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NO MORE QEs and BAILOUTS to BILLONAIRIES?
"Asset prices are acting
to reflect the weaponization of financial assets... While other
factors are operating to cause the collapse of financials share prices, the newly accelerated collapse recognizes
that such companies are increasingly in the front line of the new Cold War...
"
See Chart:
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For the
fourth week in a row, 'complacency'
has been squeezed out of US capital markets as short positioning in
VIX, US Treasuries, and Gold have all reduced significantly…
See Chart:
This collapse in complacency - which appears to have a long
way to go to get back to normal - has accompanies a month in US stock markets
that echoes their performance 10 years ago, at the
height of a financial crisis.
See Chart:
…
See More INTERESTING charts at:
…
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PAIN OVER? Perhaps for some billionaires
not for the 99% of nations
This week,
companies with $50bn of quarterly buybacks were off their blackout periods, and
the number jumps to $110bn by the end of next week and to $145bn the
following...
According to Deutsche
Bank calculations, this
week companies with $50bn of quarterly buybacks were off their blackout
periods, and the number jumps to $110bn by the end of next week and to $145bn
the following.
See Chart:
https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/buyback%20blackout%203.jpg?itok=OnA215u6
The other 10 Charts show the opposite. See one more, the
most promising: N.7:
As Kostin calculates, nearly half,
or some 48% of S&P 500 firms are now out of their blackout windows and will
be able to resume discretionary share repurchases.
See Chart:
https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/buyback%20blackout%201.jpg?itok=zffK0LBU
See more charts at:
SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-10-28/pain-over-buybacks-set-soar-48-sp-exits-blackout-window
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US
DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds
& corruption. Urge cambio
"These people are
vampires, sucking the life out of a society for their own ends. They are evil in a way that proves John
Barth’s observation that 'man can do no wrong'... For they never see themselves as the villain."
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From
Michael Zezas, Morgan Stanley's
Chief US Public Policy & Municipal Strategist
There’s a
significant chance that voters choose an outcome that shifts US policy from the
status quo. Hence, investors should anticipate market reactions to these
alternate outcomes. Here’s how we think about it...
Here’s a tip for election night, from my left brain to
yours: There’s a better chance than you think that the
elections, and the market reaction, won’t go the way you expect.
If you’re like me, you’ve been thinking about the US midterm
elections for months...at least. And if you’re like me, you’ve noticed that
polls, betting markets, and model-based
probabilities have been stable in pointing to a single outcome as most likely: Democrats take the House, Republicans keep the
Senate. And if you’re like
me, you’ve probably translated that stability into overconfidence that this
will be the outcome.
See Chart:
The most likely outcome – Democrat House, Republican Senate
– has been carrying a probability of about 60-65% and results in legislative
gridlock, hence status quo on policies that influence markets (fiscal stimulus,
regulation, and trade). The results that take these policies in meaningfully
different directions make up the other 35-40% – with meaningful chances that either Republicans hold
both houses or that Democrats sweep. Said
differently, there’s a
significant chance that voters choose an outcome that shifts US policy from the
status quo.
Hence, investors
should anticipate market reactions to these alternate outcomes. Here’s how we
think about it:
1-Trade risk is a constant. On election night,
focus on other variables. Hence we see trade enduring as a risk market pressure regardless, and
for election night would focus our attention on how other variables are
influenced.
2-Fiscal outcomes influence today’s key market
variable (rates), driving volatility. That could drive expectations of higher rates and a more hawkish Fed,
applying near-term pressure to stocks. .. All of a sudden, it’s reasonable to
think about fiscal contraction (i.e., rolling back some tax cuts), albeit after
2020.
3- Consider alternative hedges. Given the case above for volatility,
our cross-asset strategists have ideas for you heading into election night.
Being long equity vol makes sense, but even more so they like going long DM
FX volatility to reflect idiosyncratic political risk of various stripes.
4- Stay cautious in corporate
credit. Even if election
night drives a constructive near-term narrative for credit, perhaps on tax
policy, we would use any rally to continue moving up in quality. .. Hence,
even if election night drives a constructive near-term narrative for credit,
perhaps on tax policy, we would use any rally to continue moving up in
quality.
Maybe this wouldn’t be your playbook, but in any case we
want you to embrace the uncertainty rather than plan for the expected.
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MY OPINION: Hugo Adan
1 Name: The context open up chances for the less participation rate
in the history of mid-terms. There is a wide dissatisfaction with both parties
in the duopoly system (Reps & Dems). Voting for the less evil party
is not a real democratic vote. Many people fells that
way, and they won’t vote. The obsolete political
system is demanding a 3rd option and there is not chances to open up
the 3rd at this time, but there is a chance to express dissatisfaction
with the system and avoid this happens again in Presidential election: we have
to formalize this already existing choice. Let’s start by calling this option
with its own name: ABSTENTION. It already exist.
2- Content A: Abstention implies delegitimize the obsolete
anti-democratic system and DEMAND that the elected for the House and the Senate
get at least 51% of the total electorate in a State.
3-Content B: The buying of election is antidemocratic. The financiers of
election are committing a crime against democracy. The supper packs and
super-delegates are controlled by corrupt bureaucrats in both parties; they
serve the interest of big Corp. Many of the candidates for the House and senate
are serving such interests. They should be denounced as anti-democratic.
4- Content C: the corporate media is the main accomplice of this crime
against democracy. The political debate should’ve been delivered by a broadcasting
station of C-SPAN in the State. No more business with politics, that is not
democratic, it is the opposite: is dictatorship
of the billionaires.
DON’T VOTE, JUST ABSTEIN until new laws for democracy
with 3rd option is reached.
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Black should get out from both parties: Dems & Reps. Two
faces of same devaluated coin
"Blexit
is a renaissance"
[[ Black
voters matter: real resistance means ABSTENTION. Get a United Front and vote
for your people. Stop voting for the
puppets of the billonaires ]]
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"... if you passively
consume the news, political divisions will likely be further
cemented... if you become aware of how
the media reports you’re consuming seek to subtly position and influence you,
you’ll likely seek out more sources and become
more deliberative..."
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US-WW ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol
& global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State
socialis+K-, D rest in limbo
A "show of
force" of sorts
as Washington and Moscow trade barbs over nuclear treaty
cancellation.
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What the
optics of the four-way Istanbul summit reveal...
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[[ We are bulling them,
invading their spaces & making military drills in their borders]]
“It’s
necessary to strengthen the mission … and concentrate preparations for fighting
a war. We need to take all complex situations into consideration and make
emergency plans accordingly.
[[ We
have to use FDR experience and make New Deal with RU 7 China: the main
objective is PEACE and this mean dismantle of Nukes. MAD thesis state a mutual
assured destruction if we start nuke
war. Not winners & back to stone age ]]
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Are we happy for the crisis of other nations?.. Mal de todos: Consuelo de tontos
Merkel’s
ruling coalition "has lost
the confidence of the electorate" said Josef Joffe,
publisher-editor of weekly Die Zeit.
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EMPEZO LA FARSA:
"We couldn't continue
to flirt with communism and socialism,
now we will lead with God..."
[[ It was said by Fco Franco in Spain y
Dios lo voló con su carro al techo de un edificio ]]
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La
lucha continua. The struggle will continue! We
need to work & they need us.
"Our
goal is not to remain in
Mexico..."
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SPUTNIK
and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n
GEO-ECO ..Focus on neoliberal expansion
via wars & danger of WW3
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RT SHOWS
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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to neo-fascist regimes &
terrorist imperial chaos
VIENTO SUR
Memoria: Torturadores condecorados Xabier Makazaga
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RT EN ESPAÑOL
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more
business-wars from US-NATO allies
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PRESS TV
Resume of Global News described by Iranian observers..
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