jueves, 10 de septiembre de 2015

SEPT 10 SIT EC y POL

SEPT 10 SIT EC y POL


VIDEO on chances of war between US-RU:   www.youtube.com/watch?v=5fL0qokdJis 
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ZERO HEDGE



[Obama sabe que Iran merece el respeto de todo Estado soberano. Iran negocio de buena fe un acuerdo diplomático que jamás comprometió su autonomía. No hay nada en ese acuerdo que obligue a Iran a poner en peligro el futuro de su nación. Y es lo que hace cuando decide ayudar a erradicar el terrorismo hijadista. Se apuntaba con estos hacia Iran y hasta aquí llegaron. Los que amamos la paz saludamos la decisión de erradicar el terrorismo  islámico de una vez por todas.  No hay ninguna humillación a Obama, al contrario Iran esta haciendo lo que nosotros prometimos hacer. Humillación seria que nos condenen como criminales de guerra ]
The latest twist in what we have been warning for months has the makings of the biggest proxy shooting war in years, one that will come as a major humiliation to the Obama administration,today we find out that none other than America's most recent diplomatic sweetheart in the Gulf region, Iran, has deployed ground soldiers into Syria in the past few days in cooperation with Russia's President Vladimir Putin.
[ Now ISIS has to send back to their countries all mercenaries .. the US & UK already announced they are ready to receive them as heroes .. ISIS is going to be decimated inside Syria & Iraq .. the only support they have is Turkey y este pais va a tener que aliarse con los Rusos si quiere paz con el PPK .. Era hora de que se le ajuste cuentas a los terroristas islámicos, adiós al jihadism..Hay luz en el tunel ]
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Despite the biggest intervention surge in offshore Yuan on record ("predatoring" any excess speculative fervor on PBOC actions in the spot market), a 'PBOC Advisor' noted that "long-term FX intervention was not their target." The Hong Kong Dollar is pressuring the strong-end of its range against the USD, trapped between the USD peg and weak economy (like so many others). Chinese stocks continue to tread water as China's Premier Li rules out QE …  PBOC strengthened the Yuan Fix tonight (just modestly)

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Nomi Prins: Mexico, The Fed, & Counterparty Risk Concerns.   by Nomi Prins via NomiPrins.com, Submitted by Tyler Durden on 09/10/15 [Here only extracts ]

This level of global inter-connected financial risk is hazardous in Mexico, where it’s peppered by high bank concentration risk. No one wants another major financial crisis. Yet, that’s where we are headed …  Mexico’s problems could again ripple through Latin America where eroding confidence, volatility, and US dollar strength are already hurting economies and markets. The difference is that now, in contrast to the 1980s and 1990s debt crises, loan and bond amounts have not just been extended by private banks, but subsidized by the Fed and the ECB.  The risk platform is elevated. The fall, for both Mexico and its trading partners like the US, is likely much harder.
Capital Flight due to US Rate Hikes, Real or Anticipated

The possibility of US rate hikes, or even the threat of them, could freeze demand for non-US stocks and bonds - everywhere. If we learned anything from the US financial crisis, economic hardship in Greece and other Southern European countries, and the rout in the Chinese stock market, it’s that capital flight, particularly leveraged capital flight, can crucify an economy, especially high debt burdens accentuate the process.

In addition, heightened “de-risking” (or the reducing of counter-party agreements and cross-border remittances between the US and Mexico) will impact future remittance flows. Though de-risking practices are officially designated to thwart money launderers and drug-dealers – the true effect of the closing of bank branches or reduction of services that enable remittance flows burdens the population and the local banks that rely on them.

Big Bank Concentration and Counterparty Risk

Mexico’s domestic bank concentration problems have marginally improved since the financial crisis, but not by much. As of 2014, just five of Mexico’s private sector banks hold 72 percent of all financial assets. The top two, Banamex, a unit of Citigroup Inc., and BBVA Bancomer, a unit of Spain's Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA, hold 38 percent of all assets. (Source) (Source)

Concentration has accelerated in the US. Since the financial crisis, the Big Six US banks (JPM Chase, Citigroup, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo and Morgan Stanley) have grown in terms of assets, deposits, cash, trading assets and derivatives volume. … The main foreign banks in Mexico, and those engaging in business with Mexican banks, can quickly close services and shift capital and credit from the country, or place barriers to retrieve it, in a pinch.

Ongoing US Bank Bailouts and Mexican Fallout

The US Federal Reserve buying program, though officially over, has rendered the Fed the largest hedge fund in the world, with a $4.5 trillion book of securities, more than a dozen times the figure of seven years earlier. The mortgage backed securities component remains at about $1.5 trillion, up from zero seven years ago.

Mexico was fortunate not to have been on the US bank radar screen to receive, or be induced to borrow against, the $14 trillions of dollars of toxic US-bank made assets. US bankers mostly focused on selling these subprime assets into Europe. Thus, Mexico escaped the fallout that countries like Greece and Spain felt.  … Still, Mexico’s financial conditions are showing increasing signs of weakness, despite comparatively low inflation and, as a result, the ability to keep interest rates around 3 percent (the same as in Chile) below those in Columbia and Peru.

Aside from business problems, the amount of people living in poverty in Mexico increased from 49 million in 2008 to 53 million in 2012. In addition, Mexico came in last of the 34 countries examined by the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development OECD for inequality. The combination of poverty and inequality on the ground, plus incoming instability on a business and banking basis could prove a disastrous mix in Mexico (and in the US) in the face of possible rising interest rates, a strengthening dollar in the near-term, or enhanced volatility.

EM (Emerging Markets)  Debt Defaults and Bond-Stock Divergence

Credit default risk looms as well. The amount of corporate and bank debt issued since the Fed embarked on its zero-interest rate and QE policy and pushed it on the world, has escalated. Thus, rising interest rates or corporate defaults in the US would impact Mexican (and other EM) corporate bond prices and default rates.

The divergence between credit-risk as reflected by rising high-yield bond spreads (up from seven year lows in mid-2014) and equities is predominantly predicated on the 60 percent drop in oil prices this year, which as of August 20th, hit a six and a half year low. The energy sector represents 15 percent of the high yield market.

Energy stocks have dropped nearly thirty percent. If commodity prices continue falling, other sectors and the stock markets would be more effected. Countries reliant on oil revenues, such as Mexico where 30 percent of the federal budget is based upon them, are impacted directly from profit loss and secondarily by defaults. (Source)

According to a recent report issued by the Institute of International Finance,  Corporate Debt in Emerging Markets: What should we be worried about?, emerging market (EM) non-financial corporate debt rose to a record high of 83 percent of GDP, up from 67 percent in 2009.  The total size of the EM non-financial corporate bond market has more than doubled to $2.4 trillion in 2014 vs. 2009.

Between 2015 and 2017, about $645 billion of that debt is set to mature with US dollar denominated bonds comprising $108 billion of that figure. Meanwhile, the volume of non-performing loans and general debt payment burdens have risen on US dollar strength, meaning EM banks, particularly those exposed to high degrees of foreign-currency lending, are increasingly in trouble.

What This All Means

This level of global inter-connected financial risk is hazardous in Mexico, where it’s peppered by high bank concentration risk. No one wants another major financial crisis. Yet, that’s where we are headed. … Mexico’s problems could again ripple through Latin America where eroding confidence, volatility, and US dollar strength are already hurting economies and markets.
The difference is that now, in contrast to the 1980s and 1990s debt crises, loan and bond amounts have not just been extended by private banks, but subsidized by the Fed and the ECB.  The risk platform is elevated. The fall, for both Mexico and its trading partners like the US, is likely much harder.
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[ Another wishful thinking on China .. it would be more constructive to think on"Endgame Scenarios" of the US crisis and possible alternatives .. then I will believe that this “lover of China” is able to see not only the hair in other eyes  but also the beam in his own eyes. …. Read it only If you have time to spend in bloomberian furts..  if not .. you WON’T miss nothing  ]

In stepped up efforts to close the gap between the onshore and offshore spot and you have yourself a rather untenable situation and as with all things untenable, there will, sooner or later, be an endgame. 
Against this backdrop, we present Daiwa’s list of China’s three possible endgame scenarios (via Bloomberg): 

China’s balance sheet under serious contractionary pressure as money leaves and Fed decision looms, resulting in three endgame scenarios, Daiwa analysts Kevin Lai and Junjie Tang write in note dated Sept. 9.
  • Scenario 1: PBOC actively intervenes by selling FX reserves to support CNY; a painful credit crunch ensues; companies come under pressure to liquidate assets to pay debts in classic case of “debt deflation”
  • Scenario 2: Govt. stops FX intervention and prints massive amounts of money; interest rates and reserve ratio potentially slashed; moves put significant downward pressure on CNY and implications of a currency crisis would be global 
  • Scenario 3: China muddles through between scenarios 1 and 2, where PBOC tries to manage an “orderly” downward adjustment for CNY; stimulus wouldn’t ultimately be large enough to have any meaningful impact

[Here the wishful conclusion] In short, the only "scenario" that doesn't result in an "endgame" [so there are only two endgames ] is for everything to suddenly be fixed overnight, or, as Soc Gen recently put it, "for the RMB to appreciate compared to its current value will require a very positive environment for EM coupled with a cessation of capital outflows and a vibrant cyclical growth and an export recovery." That, obviously, is laughable so all we can say to the PBoC (and also to the Fed, who must consider all of the above when weighing liftoff) is "good luck."
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On September 25th, Pope Francis will address the United Nations General Assembly in New York City. To much fanfare, the Pope will celebrate the unveiling of the UN’s Sustainable Development Agenda 2030. A key plank of this agenda relates to the UN’s “Sustainable Development Goals,” or SDGs. While this sounds all warm and fuzzy, several well meaning participants have become horrified by the extent to which multi-national corporations have influenced the entire process. So much so, that insiders are claiming the UN is actually marginalizing the very people it claims to be saving. The poor, the weak, and the voiceless.

[ Este pope cree que los Latinos nos olvidamos de que fue sirviente del Dictador Videla -ARG .. uno de los implementadores del genocida Plan Condor de la CIA para asesinar Izquierdistas  anti- Pinochet ]
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Reuters reports that Iran has cut its quarterly selling price (for its flagship 'light' crude) to its lowest (relative to Saudi) since Q4 2012. According to recent tanker loading data, Iran's oil sales in September are set to hit a six-month low, and this price reduction is just one of the steps taken by the OPEC producer to ramp up output and regain market share lost since U.S. and European sanctions aimed at its nuclear program cut its crude oil exports by more than half.

[That shot was good .. dos pájaros de un tiro .. quemaron las sanciones US-EU  y los bolsillos del panzón Saudi que visito la Casa Blanca ]
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With the war drums beating louder by the day, US officials are now warning that Russia's military buildup in Syria is "unprecedented" and is "beginning to look like Crimea." Meanwhile, the Kremlin has accused the US of "international boorishness" for Washington's "rubbish" attempts to characterize Moscow's relationship with Damascus unfairly.

[ We were destroying Syria with the pretext of fighting ISIS –there are evidences that we trained & armed them- .. We commit war crimes against their civilian population to implement “regime change”.. there are evidences that we have such purpose … We made alliance with Turkey to kill the Kurds inside Syria & in Irak, there are also evidences in this regard … We are a direct cause of the Syrian  civilian exodus to Europe & that is crime against humanity … Russia instead is really committed to stop the human disaster caused by ISIS .. they have economic business in Syria, so they  are allies.  Then, if Russia is sending troops and military equipment over there .. they have a right cause to do it.. We do not have it .. What is our purpose over there? None but to support the terrorist mercenaries of ISIS in Syria … We have no right cause nor business in Syria.. We are condemned to failure ]
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[ their neo-nazis in power are going to be deposed soon or later.. son la verguenza de Europa
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Fortress Europe Under Threat Submitted by Tyler Durden on 09/10/2015

The lack of leadership to tackle this clear and present danger to Europe's future is truly concerning. Both the migrants and the Europeans might be worse off as a result.

[ Europeans –specially Germans- are in debt with the migrants since they profit from the wars that destroyed their countries.. they like to sell guns, they have to accommodate the survivors now ]
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[ They will continue doing so while they have control of their own Banks .. and they will print more money  for QEs if America decide to raise interest rate.. they will put more cash in the hands of their big companies .. This is the fake economy we like it… we’re going to have it … same in China. ..Where the American “investors” will go? .. no there. .. South America ?.. I do not think so, they are not going to accept more expensive debts .. they may take control of their central Banks & control of the parity with the USD .. the raise of interest will be the “parte olas” from present to future of this system ]
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[ NOPE.. there will be a divorce from EU-US “investors” .. some of the rich in EU already suggested  to split  this costs with  the US .. so, they are happy with the FED idea of raising interest rate .. they will do it too and they will print euros to inundate the world market (they have better trade balance) and they will “buy” the QTs from America .. I guess they are enjoying the FED idea of “Rate Hike” ]
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Late last year, Paul Krugman took a field trip to Japan to observe Keynesian insanity prowling around in its natural habitat. While he was there, he gave Prime Minister Shinzo Abe some sage advice which can be roughly summarized as follows: "Abenomics is working so why would you screw it up by getting fiscally responsible all of the sudden?" Nine months later, Japan is still a deflationary deathtrap and Krugman is "really, really worried"..

[ I don’t think so .. His “Keynesian insanity” worked “perfectly” in Japan and here .. under the limits of insanity of course .. He might be very proud of his insane receipt.. it make the neoliberal zombie continue walking .. Once the final collapse comes.. he will be very worry ]
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The City Of London Has Turned Britain Into A "Civilized Mafia State". Submitted by Tyler Durden on 09/10/2015 [ It always was. The most “Mafioso”  bankers live in London ]

"Public services, infrastructure, the very fabric of the nation: these too are being converted into risk-free investments. Social cleansing is transforming central London into an exclusive economic zone for property speculation. From a dozen directions, government policy converges on this objective. Property in this country is a haven for the proceeds of international crime. Sometimes the UK looks to me like an ever so civilised mafia state."
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If you have been waiting for the market to send you “warning signals”, then you can stop waiting because it is happening right in front of your eyes.
Well, the truth is that if there is going to be a full-blown market meltdown, we would expect for there to be wildly dramatic swings in the market both up and down.

A perfect example of this is what we experienced during the financial crisis of 2008.  9 of the 20 largest single day declines in stock market history happened that year, but 9 of the 20 largest single day increases in stock market history also happened that yearIf we are moving into another great financial crisis, there should be massive upsand massive downs, and that is precisely what we are witnessing right now.

There will be more days when the stock market absolutely plummets and there will be more days when it absolutely soars.  No stock market crash in U.S. history has ever gone in just one direction continually.  There are always giant waves of momentum that cause panic sellingand panic buying.

There is one thing that could change that.  A major “black swan event” such as a historic natural disaster, an unprecedented terror attack, or the outbreak of war could potentially be enough to chase all of the buyers out of the marketplace.  And considering the times that we are moving into, those things should not be ruled out. But minus some type of event like that, we should expect lots of wild swings in both directions.

If you already know what is coming and you are already prepared for it, you won’t be freaking out like the rest of the general population will be when things start really going crazy.

Life in America in the years ahead is going to look dramatically different from what life in America looks like right now.
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Apparently fed up with the persistent spread between the onshore and offshore yuan, China has decided to add one more spinning plate to its collection by intervening in the offshore spot market.
[ It did not work as you expected .. but at least the “sincerity” of your love for China is working ]
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Submitted by Tyler Durden on 09/10/2015 - 07:35
  • Compare: S&P 500 Futures Advance After U.S. Stocks Ignored Global Rally (BBG)
  • And contrast: Global Stock Rally Grinds to a Halt (BBG)
  • And be very confused: Global Stocks Lower on U.S. Interest Rate Uncertainty (WSJ)
  • Hilsenrath: Fed Wavers on September Rate Rise (WSJ)
  • Time for more QE: Abe Adviser Says Next Month Good Opportunity for BOJ Easing (BBG)
  • Brazil downgraded to junk rating by S&P, deepening woes (Reuters)
  • Kiwi dollar tumbles after New Zealand cuts interest rates (Reuters)
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INFORMATION CLEARING HOUSE


Thank God for Germany. Europe Appears to Have Forgotten the Age-old Lessons of History . By Robert Fisk.  Our state-of-the-art nations did not want these wretched people. They became bloodsuckers, human mosquitoes, people-smugglers, a “swarm”
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Refugee Crisis: What The Media Is Hiding. By Syrian Girl  There are a few things you should know about the Refugee Crisis - Its being used to bomb the country the refugees are running from
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Why The US and Iran Aren’t Cooperating Against IS. By Gareth Porter  The logic of geopolitics, the United States and Iran ought to be cooperating to contain and weaken the Islamic State.  [They’re no doing so ]
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50 Spies Say ISIS Intelligence Was Cooked. By Shane Harris. It’s being called a ‘revolt’ by intelligence pros who are paid to give their honest assessment of the ISIS war—but are instead seeing their reports turned into happy talk.
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Foreign Invasion Force In Yemen Grows. By Moon Of Alabama. The U.S. has now silently joined the fighting  [ Los soldados Americanos tendran que salir .. de lo contrario contaremos la bolsas de plastico que traen sus restos ]
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Secret Warfare. U.S. Special Forces Expand Training to Allies With Histories of Abuse. By Nick Turse. The had him at their mercy. The burly man, hooded and helpless, sat on the ground
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The Invisible Empire. The Making of Global Capitalism. By Chris Hedges. Chris Hedges and professor Leo Panitch examine the genesis of global imperialism and capitalism
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GLOBAL RESEARCH


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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH


Ecuador. Ayer Texaco, hoy Petroamazonas. Editorial de Acción Ecológica
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Refugiados sí, inmigrantes no?. Tras la conmoción por los refugiados, un riesgo que es una paradoja. Javier De Lucas 
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PRESS TV


‘US doesn’t want to destroy ISIL’ Fri Sep 11, 2015 The United States and its allies have created the war in Syria and have destabilized it since 2011, an analyst says. [ What about IRAN?  ]
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Obama celebrates Iran victory. Thu Sep 10, 2015 Barack Obama has hailed Senate Democrats for blocking a resolution disapproving of the Iran nuclear agreement.
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House clears Iran deal bills for debate . Thu Sep 10, 2015 The US House of Representatives cleared three bills related to the Iran nuclear deal for debate on Thursday.
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Dems block GOP bid to sink Iran deal . Thu Sep 10, 2015 Senate Democrats block a Republican resolution disapproving of the Iran nuclear agreement, handing Obama a major political victory.
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‘Europe paying price for policies on Syria’. Thu Sep 10, 2015 Syria's Information Minister Omran al-Zoubi says European countries should bear full responsibility for the influx of Syrian refugees in the continent.
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Sanders ‘stunned’ by his own popularity. Thu Sep 10, 2015 Democratic candidate Bernie Sanders has said that he is “stunned” by his own performance in recent US presidential polls.
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‘US plotting to topple Assad since 9/11’. Thu Sep 10, 2015 The US plots to overthrow the Syrian government are as old as 9/11 terrorist attacks, an American journalist says.

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