EL SENTANAZO FINAL DE LA ACTUAL
CRISIS ESTÁ POR LLEGAR
Hugo Adan
Octubre 14, 2014
El reciente
apagón económico del Oct 12 hizo pensar a muchos de que el sentanazo final de
la actual crisis está por llegar. Se teme que la debacle del imperio no pase de
este año. Sera sin guerra en la opinión mundial y peor si es con guerra nuclear que sería por breve lapso.
Digo eso porque de darse la guerra, eso vendría
acompañado de una gran implosión de violencia social de impredecibles efectos dentro de los USA, en Europa, y luego
a nivel mundial, dada la explosiva desigualdad actual. Se teme incluso que no
solo se disuelva la Union Americana, también la de Europa. Además, es muy
posible que el bloque emergente Ru-Chi -minado
por la guerra- pueda ser capaz de instalar un nuevo orden al caos sino se
empieza por distribuir la riqueza acumulada. Se tendra que empezar por anular
las deudas externas “or sovereign debt” de la periferia mundial. La deuda fue la fuente de todos los fraudes y perversidades del modelo neoliberal, El "fresh-start" debe ser para todos y los recursos estrategicos de la periferia deben ser nacionalizados y administrados por el Estado y Capital privado, con un minimo de 51% para el Estado. Asi este podra atender las necesidades de educacion, salud y techo para su nacion. La corrupcion burocratica y de los especuladores privados debera ser penalizada severamente. Los referendums y auditorias seberan ser instalados periodicamente. Es muy
probable que las oligarquías burocráticas del imperio emergente también sean
sacudidas por el sentanazo y que una real "nueva Rusia sin oligarquias" emerja, como los avizoraron los rebeldes de
Luganks y Donetsk. Si es asi, en buena hora!
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Una breve sinopsis del reciente apagón puede encontrarse en los recientes envíos de zerohedge.com. Sin embargo, los primeros en alertar sobre el apagón fueron el IMF y el economista John Hussman del Weekly Market Comment.
1-
1st el IMF: “The
extended period of monetary accommodation and the accompanying search for yield
are leading to credit mispricing and asset price pressures, increasing the
chance that financial stability risks could derail the recovery. Concerns have
shifted to the shadow banking system, especially the growing share of
illiquid credit in mutual fund portfolios.
Trend:
a- If “asset markets come under stress, an adverse
feedback loop between outflows and asset performance could develop, moving markets
from a low- to a high-volatility state, with negative implications for emerging
market economies”.
b- Funds
investing in credit instruments have a number of features that could result in
elevated financial stability risks:
First is a mismatch in liquidity offered by investment funds with redemption terms that may be inconsistent with the liquidity of underlying assets.
Second is the large amount
of assets concentrated in the hands of a few managers.
Third is the concentration
of decision making across funds of an individual fund manager, which can reduce
diversification benefits, increase brand risk, or both.
Fourth is the concentrated
holdings of individual issuers, which can exacerbate price adjustments.
Fifth is the rise in
retail participation, which can increase the tendency to follow the herd.
Such stress might be triggered
as part of the exit from unconventional monetary policy or by other sources,
including a sharp retrenchment from risk taking due to higher geopolitical
risks.
THE IMF IS WORRIED...
Policymakers and markets need
to prepare for structural higher market volatility. Doing so requires
strengthening the system’s ability to absorb sudden portfolio adjustments, as
well as addressing structural liquidity weaknesses and vulnerabilities.
Advanced economies with
financial markets at risk for runs and fire sales may need to put in place
mechanisms to unwind funds should they come under substantial pressure that
threatens wider financial stability.
SOURCE: IMF report release at the beginning of October. For more info OPEN: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-10-12/prepare-runs-imf-warns-policymakers-elevated-financial-stability-liquidity-risks
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2-
“Present conditions create an urgency to
examine all risk exposures”. He “finds
a narrow set comprising less than 5% of history that contains little but abrupt
air-pockets, free-falls, and crashes.
“We've started to see the pattern of abrupt jumps and declines at 10-minute intervals that is often a hallmark of nervous markets… if you examine tick data or daily ranges before major declines both in the U.S. and elsewhere, you'll generally see price movements become chaotic at increasingly short intervals even before the event itself. Broadening Instability, Hussman Weekly Market Comment, January 28, 2008
Recently he said: to “understand that the bulk of the advance in financial assets in recent years has not been a reasonable response to the level of interest rates, but instead it reflects a dangerous compression of risk premiums. I do believe that now is a particularly bad time to rely on the idea that “this time is different” with money you cannot afford to lose. This does not require forecasts about market direction – only proper consideration of market risk. .. Investors should understand that “prices and valuations are high” is another way of saying “future returns have already been realized, leaving little to be gained for quite some time.”
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So, if
neoliberal capitalism is unable to rich its main objective: profits; then this
system is obsolete. Hugo Adan
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3-
Zerohedge reports sobre el sentanazo
del 12 de Octubre:
A- The Defining Problem Of Our Times (In 1
Simple Chart) Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/13/2014 -
19:36. “Hyperinflation and hyper-deflation are just two different forms
of the same phenomenon: credit collapse. Arguing which of the two forms
will dominate is futile: it blurs the focus of inquiry and frustrates efforts
to avoid disaster.” http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-10-13/defining-problem-our-times-1-simple-chart
B-
Manic-Buying Turns To Panic-Selling As
'Illiquid' Stocks Plunge To 5-Month Lows Submitted
by Tyler Durden on 10/13/2014 - 16:01. Just as we warned,
liquidity was incomprehensibly low today (below normal pre-market levels during
the peak of the trading day) and the intraday whipsaws were meteoric as a
closed cash bond market enabled the slightest twitch in USDJPY to send S&P
algos into conniptions. Biotech crashed. US Airlines have fallen for 6
straight days, crashing 17% (with today's 7% plunge - driven by chatter
over airborne Ebola - its biggest in over years). Tresury futures implied a
notable drop in yields across the curve (10Y -7bps at 2.21%, 30Y 2.97%, and
5Y 1.45%). The USdollar closed -0.33% led by EUR and JPY strength (but AUD
surged 1% extending gains after China data). Stocks
"flash-crashed" on very heavy volume in the last 30 mins with VIX
breaking above 24 (highest in 16 months). All major equity indices are now
below their 200DMA with the worst 3-day loss since late 2011.
C-
Mini Flash Crash After Massive Sell Order
Soaks Up All E-Mini Liquidity Submitted
by Tyler Durden on 10/13/2014 - 15:38 Well that escalated quickly.... a huge volume
move soaked up the entire S&P 500 e-mini liquidity stack... a
"flash-crash" that saw VIX burst above 23.
D- Doug Kass: The Day The Market Died Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/13/2014 -
15:35. "So bye bye to my
piece of the pie... I poured my paycheck into the Russell,
Now my cash account's dry... It's just one month from a new
all-time high, And now we're right back where we were in July..."
Get poems on the crush in 1929 at: Source: Doug Kass of Seabreeze
Partners Management
E- The 10 Biggest Energy Company Bankruptcies Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/13/2014 -
15:11 Submitted
by Anfrew Topf via OilPrice.com,
Here are the bankruptcies that will be etched into the tombstones of
failed energy fortunes for time immemorial. 1. Enron. Bankrupt December 2, 2001.
Assets $65.5 billion. 2. Energy Future Holdings.
Bankrupt April 29, 2014. Assets $36.4 billion.
3. Pacific Gas & Electric Company. Bankrupt April 6, 2001.
Assets $36.1 billion. 4. Texaco. Bankrupt April 12, 1987. Assets $34.9
billion. 5. Calpine Corporation. Bankrupt December 20, 2005. Assets
$26.6 billion. … OPEN: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-10-13/10-biggest-energy-company-bankruptcies
F-
Small Caps Hit One-Year Lows As 30Y Treasury
Yield Drops Below 3% Submitted
by Tyler Durden on 10/13/2014 - 10:25 With the cash bond market closed today, we
get our cues from an admittedly thin Treasury futures market. Prices are up
across the board with 10Y yield down 3bps at 2.25%, 30Y back under 3%,
and 5Y down 4bps at 1.49%. The rates market, once again is leading stocks
lower - not getting as exuberant as stocks out of the gate... The
Russell 2000 is at one-year lows (Oct 9th 2013 to be exact)
G-
When Nothing Matters - Until It Does Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/13/2014 -
12:29 Today, everything is changing
because the great masses whom many relate to as “the herd mentality” is now
showing signs of great nervousness. And once this group gets spooked, it's
over. Camera-On-A-Stick-In-A-Bear-Market: GoPro
Down 25% In 4 Days
H- Prepare For Another Whiplashy Session:
Liquidity Non-Existent Submitted
by Tyler Durden on 10/13/2014 - 09:42 A BLACK MONDAY -
PARTICULARLY INAPPROPRIATE ON COLUMBUS DAY- However, there's a long
way to go in the day and liquidity is - in a word (or two) - non-existent
(lowest in at least 18 months). That means intraday volatility will be extreme
to say the least...
I-
Will The Fed Let The Stock Market Crash
Before An Election? Submitted
by Tyler Durden on 10/13/2014 - 09:18 If central banks have learned anything since
2008, it's that waiting around for the panic to deepen is not a winning
strategy. Put yourself in their shoes. Isn't this what you would do, given
the dearth of alternatives and the very real risks of implosion? Anyone in
their position with the tools at hand would not have any other real option
other than to buy stocks in whatever quantity is needed to reverse the selling
and blow the shorts out of the water. If $1 trillion doesn't do the job,
make it $3 trillion, or $5 trillion. At this point, it doesn't really matter,
does it?
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Si consideramos lo que dicen los economistas y lo que dicen estos reportes, entonces la conclusión lógica es que estamos cerca del sentanazo final de la actual crisis. Japón ya admitio que está en plena recesión Japan Admits It Has Entered A Triple-Dip Recession y varios países de la Unión Europea no podrian decir que no van a lo mismo. Europe's Triple-Dip Recession Arrives: German Industrial Production Crashes Most Since February 2009 Si ellos nos adelantan en la caída final eso no significa que estamos bien. Mal de todos, consuelo de tontos. La caída de ellos solo significaría que la cadena se rompe en el eslabón más débil, en la periferia.
Hugo Adan, Octubre 14, 2014
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