miércoles, 31 de julio de 2019

ND JUL 31 19 SIT EC y POL



ND  JUL 31  19  SIT EC y POL 
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco


ZERO HEDGE  ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics


Stocks down and dollar up - Trump won't be happy!!
See Chart:
See more charts at
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Reactions from financial speculators
1-

"If stocks plunge here, Trump will slam Powell for not hiking 25 bps..."
The yield curve flattening dramatically...
See Chart:
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You've got some 'splaining to do...
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Update (1645ET): Well that didn't take long. We noted previously that Trump demanded a rate-cut - gets one but the dollar soars and stocks tank - who will be blamed for that?
And now the President has responded by slamming Powell who "let us down", telling his followers that the market wanted to hear that "this wasthe beginning of a lengthy and aggressive rate-cutting cycle which would keep pace with China, The European Union and other countries around the world."

US stocks were all positive on the month with Small Caps worst and Nasdaq best (even with today's ugliness)...
See Chart:

This is the 10th time out of 12 press conferences that Powell has done that stocks have tanked - not great!!
See Chart:

Thanks to today's turmoil in the bond market, 30Y Yields ended the month lower and the short-end higher in yields..
See Chart:

The yield curve (3m10Y) very briefly un-inverted but tumbled on the day - staying back inverted...
See Chart:

And the 2s30s curve crashed most since Brexit (June 2016)...

The dollar surged 2.5% in July - its biggest monthly gain since Nov 2016 (Trump election)
See Chart:
DXY Dollar Index

Commodities were broadly lower today as the dollar spiked but Silver massively outperformed for the month...
See Chart:

Finally... Trump demanded a rate-cut - gets one but the dollar soars and stocks tank - who will be blamed for that?
And what happens next?
See Chart:
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4-  Quick answer to ENOUGH IS ENOUGH

"It's never enough..."
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5-

"while don’t fight the Fed is a famous refrain but nearly 50% of the time they’ve been powerless to stop negative economic and market momentum in a growth slowdown."
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"he is not giving the market what it wants"
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The speculators got only part of what they deserve
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It’s been a long, steep fall from grace for America’s former preeminent industrial concern.
This morning, General Electric reported second quarter results, including $28.8 billion in revenues and 17 cents in earnings per share, down 4% and 6% year-over-year but north of the expected $28.7 billion and 12 cents, respectively. CEO Larry Culp termed the updated outlook “a sign of progress, a sign of stability here.” But those figures were aided by a lower than expected tax rate, and the aviation division saw orders fall 10% from a year ago thanks in part to the Boeing 737 Max saga.
Since November 2007, GE shares are down 75%, compared to a 93% rise in the S&P 500 over that period.
See Chart:
See More chart
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The "Ponzi Finance" phase of the US "Minsky Moment" cycle begins some time in 2024. It's all downhill from there.
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The corporate world has a new king of cash...
See Chart:
Net Cash & Investmt Ex Total Debt ($Bll)  Apple vs. Google

Finally, we note that the rise of Google’s parent to the top of the corporate liquidity rankings puts its corporate wealth and power on conspicuous display at a politically sensitive moment. After being hit with €8.2bn in antitrust fines to the EU in the past two years, it now faces intense scrutiny in Washington... and after last night's debate, we suspect these tech cash-piles will quickly get 'taxed' away under a Democrat.
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SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-07-31/google-cash-pile-hits-record-high-overtakes-apple
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US  DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambio


Smells like socialism. 
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"There are so many unanswered questions about what happened in Cambridge..."
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 US-WORLD  ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State socialis+K-, D rest in limbo


Tailored as a warning to Taiwan secessionists.
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"Mike Pompeo thinks that the recent violence in Hong Kong is reasonable because everyone knows that this is the work of the U.S."
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Much of "Operation Crossfire Hurricane" occurred on UK soil...
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“This is why Venezuela became a threat to the USA... The USA does not want people to realize that another world is possible with justice and love.
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 SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO  ..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars & danger of WW3

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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to neo-fascist regimes & terrorist imperial chaos

REBELION
México  4T: la espada y la cruz  Ricardo Orozco
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ALAI ORG
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RT EN ESPAÑOL

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INFORMATION CLEARING HOUSE
Deep on the US political crisis: neofascism & internal conflicts that favor WW3

-The Coming Savings Meltdown  By Michael Hudson
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COUNTER PUNCH
Analysis on US Politics & Geopolitics

- J W. Whitehead  Monsters With Human Faces 
- Michael Welton  Darkness Bringing Us Down
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more business-wars from US-NATO  allies

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DEMOCRACY NOW
Amy Goodman’  team

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PRESS TV
Resume of Global News described by Iranian observers..

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martes, 30 de julio de 2019

ND JUL 30 19 SIT EC y POL



ND  JUL 30  19  SIT EC y POL 
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco


ZERO HEDGE  ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics

LET’S GO TO THE BOTTOM CHARTS
But before check subtitles that precedes:
US markets were mixed with Small Cap soaring off early weakness but the rest of the majors ending red with Nasdaq worst
Is a Fed rate-cut enough to make new highs in stocks... just like we did in 1987...
Small Caps were saved by another huge short-squeeze
BYND was battered...
And Under Armor was hammered...
VIX is about to enter the riskiest part of the year
Another extremely narrow range day in Treasuries that ended with yields down 1-2bps across the curve
The Dollar Index trod water on the day
Oil prices spiked today as China trade talks and Iran tensions raised premia as copper crumbled, PMs both rallied
WTI spiked back above $58 ahead of tonight's API inventory data

Finally, given the market's expectations of at least a 25bps cut tomorrow, one wonders what the point is when global financial conditions are back at extreme easy levels...
See Chart:
Global Financial Conditions
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Also worth noting is the VERY long positioning in crowded Nasdaq...
See Charts:
See more charts at:
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So, there’s more than 110 million barrels of crude in storage, ready to flow and push prices lower. Since the chance of the United States suddenly reconsidering its stance on Iran is non-existent, this amount will only continue to rise.
See Chart:
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...if equity markets fail one more time at our key resistance point, we believe the reversal is likely to be sharper and deeper than one might expect, even if the earnings recession is more benign than we expect.
See Chart:
See More interesting charts at:
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There is only remaining question that matters for traders ahead of tomorrow's historic - the first easing cycle in 12 years - binary event: How will the market react to a 25bps vs a 50bps rate cut? Here are some suggestions...
As we have noted in recent days, while the market-implied probability of a 50bps cut has slumped in the past few weeks, and is down to just 17% as of this writing, there are two arguments why the Fed may still go for the "shock and awe" approach.
See Exhibit 1:

 The Fed points to global growth, trade uncertainty, and manufacturing weakness to justify its concerns. So, given the claims that US data has been so good, Morgan Stanley compared the current state of affairs in
  • US and global manufacturing (via PMIs)
  • US and broader economic data (via popular surprise indices),and
  • US financial conditions
Today, it’s about downside risks coming from global growth and trade uncertainty. And as shown in the chart below, things look worse today than at the September 2007 meeting on every metric.
See Exhibit 3:
Global Manufacturing PMIs, Econ Surprise Index. Finc condit Sept 2007 vs. Today

Check this one from Bloomberg  (sorry, nothing to do with the art but imformative)

Continue the Art above:
As Morgan Stanley explains, with limited room to cut rates, the Fed should save rate cuts for when they are most needed, and due to the limited room the Fed has to lower interest rates, every rate cut needs to count. But how do you make every rate cut count? Simple: by delivering more than what markets price in (i.e. 25bps). That is exactly what happened during the 2001-2003and 2007-2008 hiking cycles
See Charts:

A second reason for why the Fed will likely surprise the market dovishly and cut 50bps, comes from Nomura's Charlie McElligott today, who instead of looking at macroeonomic conditions, whether domestic or international, focuses on persistent dollar strength, the "nervous" funding and money markets, and the (partially) clogged up dollar liquidity.
As McElligott explains, a scenario where the Fed would shock the markets with a 50bps cut would likely come down to their (unspoken) concerns around
  1. USD strength (as a clear headwind to achieving their inflation goal and as a headwind to US exporters) which comes part and parcel with
  2. Dollar funding/liquidity “tightness” into a slowing global economy
Specifically, USD-funding markets/indicators are getting even “nervier” and beyond the already-increasingly erratic month-end turn “tightness.” Here, McElligott also refers to the latest Treasury refunding/issuance announcement, where the Treasury said it now expect to borrow a whopping $433B in Q3 to rebuild the cash supply following the suspension of the debt ceiling "deal",  this as we noted yesterday, is more than double the April estimate.
See Table
Sources & Uses: Reconciliation table

This means a massive wall of T-Bill issuance coming in the next 2 months - one which will promptly soak up liquidity from the banking system (see chart below), into a backdrop where Dealer balance sheets are already loaded to the gills along-with increasingly “price-sensitive” domestic investors and foreign real $ who too remain sensitive to the cost of the almost “punitive” FX hedge.
See Chart:

Finally, we present one final consideration from McElligott, who thinks a 50bps power cut perversely risks a market interpretation that this is then “just” a one-time “insurance cut” action, as opposed to a 25bps “slow-and-steady” cut which opens door to more behind.
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"The fundamental data has been disappointing this year and in many cases, it is still getting worse, not better."
See Chart:
See More interesting charts at:
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US  DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambio


Envy, it bears mentioning, is an inalterable facet of the human condition. But there is scant evidence that jealousy (again, if unfostered by politicians and court intellectuals) has effects which consolidate and multiply socially.
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"... it's unconstitutional and it opens up the possibility for states to load up more requirements on candidates in future elections. "
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Battle lines drawn.
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The man, a Honduran national, confessed to border agents when he was faced with a DNA test...
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BE AFRAID!  .. is what they want:  WILL YOU FOLLOW SUCH ORDER?

As technology continues to advance, we will lose all privacy and all freedom.  We are already well on our way to complete totalitarianism.
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Suggestion: drilling own hole is the way to find oil

...it wouldn't shock us if the administration is preparing bailouts for the coal industry, just in time for the 2020 election.
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Paredon is the solut.. If not,  he will ruin Trump’s lolito reputatn. I don’t wanta pedo-T

"I was terrified, and I was telling him to stop. 'Please stop'"
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OPEN A DEBATE WITH E-WARREN: “Hillary Clinton could only teach how to lose” at
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If the Federal Reserve doesn’t cut rates and the U.S. economy really starts going off the rails, they will be President Trump’s number one economic target during the 2020 campaign...
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US-WORLD  ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State socialis+K-, D rest in limbo

Easy to find fleas in your head then missiles in ISR , N-K.. etc. Did you count US M-ww?

For the second time in a week, North Korea has seemingly snubbed President Trump by test-firing multiple unidentified projectiles this morning.
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In www.rt.com/business  OPEN the title : Companies people to hate: world most despised Corp.
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO  ..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars & danger of WW3

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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to neo-fascist regimes & terrorist imperial chaos

REBELION

Rep-Dominica: Atraso político y espectáculo electorero  Liliam Oviedo
Cuba: Padre de la Patria cubana Carlos Manuel de Céspedes  Salim L
Opinión:  La cancha marcada  Ángel Cappa
ONU:  Crece el hambre en el mundo  Timothy A. Wise
Cuba: suministro de energía  Tres horas y tres minutos  Amaury Valdivia
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ALAI ORG
 [ No olvidar el tema, donde y cuando, en menos de 10 palabras ]
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RT EN ESPAÑOL
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INFORMATION CLEARING HOUSE
Deep on the US political crisis: neofascism & internal conflicts that favor WW3

- New Captain for a Sinking Britain  By Eric Margolis
- The Coming Savings Meltdown  By Michael Hudson
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 GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more business-wars from US-NATO  allies


Comes after Beijing charged that unrest is "creation of the US"
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DEMOCRACY NOW
Amy Goodman’  team

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PRESS TV
Resume of Global News described by Iranian observers..

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