ND
JUN 5 19 SIT
EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social
+ Capit-compet in Eco
ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they
documented with graphics
Day 5 News:
Hugo Adan. June 5, 2019
----
----
“Job growth is moderating.
Labor shortages are impeding job growth, particularly at small companies, and layoffs at brick-and-mortar retailers
are hurting. "
See Chart:
ADP
Construction Sector Employment
Small business employment collapsed
by 52k (large business rose) with very small (1-19 people) plunging...
See Chart:
ADP Small Business Employment Change
….
----
----
Bad news is not good news today for stocks...
The market's
kneejerk reaction to the collapse in employment growth
was weakness in stocks and the dollar and a bid for bonds
See Chart:
US 10Y Treasury
yields are sliding...10Y -5bps...
See Chart:
2Y Yields
plunged below 1.80% - the lowest since Dec 2017...
See Chart:
And the
dollar is dumping further (back below the 1200 level for Bloomberg's index)...
See Chart:
So yesterday markets
cheered Powell's hints at rate-cuts if the economy weakened, and today we get
confirmation that the economy is weakening and the market is upset...
The odds
of a rate-cut at the June FOMC is now 33%!!
See Chart:
….
SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-06-05/dollar-stocks-bond-yields-tumble-after-dismal-jobs-print
----
----
Real estate is now the largest industry
as a percentage of GDP...Real estate deflation is what the Fed fears most.
See Chart:
Americas’
FIRE Economy: Finance, Insurance, Real Estate vs. Manufacturing
Greater
Sensitivity To Interest Rates And More Leverage
No wonder why the
economy and markets are so addicted to and can’t live without low-interest
rates. The danger is, however, the real estate sector is a highly
leveraged industry. Real estate DEFLATION
is what the Fed fears most.
….
----
----
"There should be little doubt thatthe
current boom will ultimately get what is coming for it..."
Low
Interest rates and Credit Expansion drives up asset prices
See Charts:
Toward
Zero Interest Rates
A simple example
might help to answer the question. Assume there is a publicly traded firm. It
has a return on capital of 5% per annum for the coming 20 years. If you buy the
stock for 100 US$, your return on investment will be 5% p.a. If you buy the
firm for, say, 50 US$ (just when there is panic in the market), your return on
investment would be higher, in this case it 8.7% p.a. The message from these
numbers should be pretty obvious: The lower the
purchasing price is, the higher is the return on investment.
See Chart:
Return on
Investment for different purchase price
What would happen if
market agents expect the interest rate to drop further to, say, 0.10%? The stock price would move up even further
Against this
backdrop we may now understand where central banks’ lowering of interest rates
will lead to.
It exerts
a tendency of dragging all returns in the economy down and
towards the market interest rate as determined by the central bank – which is,
of course, at an artificially suppressed level. In theory this process
manifests itself as a bloating up of asset prices – not only affecting the prices
of stocks, but also the prices of government and corporate bonds, real estate,
land and commodities (which are priced according to their discounted marginal
value product). However, this is not the end of the story.
A
RUINOUS MONETARY POLICY
If interest rates
and returns hit rock bottom, people have little reason to save, and investors
little incentive to invest. Consumption increases at the expense of savings,
and capital consumption sets in. Existing capital will be used up and not
replaced. It might take a while for people to find out that a central bank
monetary policy that pushes the interest rate to ever lower levels does not
bring prosperity but is very damaging, even ruinous, for the future prosperity
of the commonweal.
Once
investors realize that the economy is losing its strength, elevated asset
prices, previously driven up by an ultra-low interest rate, will come crashing
down. In the case of
stocks, for instance, profit expectations are scaled back, and a downward
adjustment of stock prices sets in. Falling asset prices in general would hit
hard consumers’ and corporates’ balance sheets.
THE LESSON TO LEARN
IS THIS: The monetary
policy of ever lower interest rate is not the solution to problems
caused by a low interest rate policy in the first place.
In the short-term it
might look promising, but it is a way towards economic
destruction. The longer the boom is kept going by central banks’ ultra-low
interest rate policy, THE BIGGER WILL BE THE ENSUING CRISIS.
….
----
----
"The final PMI data for May add toworrying signs about the health of the US economy... indicating adeterioration of annualised GDP growth to
just 1.2% in May, down from 1.9% in April..."
See Chart:
….
----
----
The bear case for
U.S. stocks is getting more
compelling by the day...
See Chart:
…
----
----
Monday's Nasdaq CTA "-100%
Short" was “stopped-out” after clearing 7133 and triggered a “flip”, with an estimated ~$20B of Futures buying—
and the Nasdaq model signal now too stands at "+97% Long."
====
SUMMARY of PREVIOUS ECON NEWS: only titles + Introd. Ready to be opened
"Today we find
ourself with an economy that is slowing down,
levels of debt never
seen before, frighteningly high financial markets valuations and LESS TOOLS TO FIGHT THE NEXT CRISIS..."
====
Gold has
moved more than $50 in just under three trading sessions, reminding everyone
just how quickly the reserve asset
of the world economy can call bullshit on the proclamations and machinations of
the morons who think they run the world.
====
"Yesterday’s
under the hood behavior was outright ugly, tied for the worst performance day YTD for my model Equities L/S HF
(-1.7% on the session) in classic “gross-down” fashion." [[ Missed yesterday ]]
====
To now see the mainstream shift toward rate cuts, it doesn’t matter
that they will try to say these will help. By the very fact they have given up on the BOND ROUT!!! it shows
the boom was only ever hype.
====
The true power of compounding isnot
found in 'the winning', but in the 'not losing'....
====
"Going
by the pattern in sentiment, we see a risk that a bear-squeeze rally in US
stocks from mid-June through early August could be followed by a massive
sell-off in mid-August through early September."
….
[[ Same
symptoms as before = same decease ]]
====
The US
dollar is extending recent losses today, hitting its lowest since May 13th, as some suggest a dovish tilt from various
Fed speakers today...
====
US
DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds
& corruption. Urge cambio
Day 5 News
"I
think it’s a terrible responsibility but one I’m prepared to handle."
….
That is totally
IRRESPONSIBLE .. the world expect from Trump a policy to de-nuke the world.. it is our life and the
life of the whole humanity at stake. This is not
only IRRESPONSIBLE .. it is a war declaration
against our Nation and the world… more than enough to be impeached. For PEACE WE STAND. Let’s
move to streets and demand his resignation & org REF & coll-signatures
to support it.
====
"This interaction was
irresponsible. We expect them to behave within international standards set to
ensure safety and to prevent incidents."
….
Where is the
evidences that RU are doing so.. Call immediate UN Gen-Assemb
====
Slowly, Wall Street is taking the trade wars seriously.
But it is still missing the larger
implications of a new cold war.
====
SUMMARY of PREVIOUS POL NEWS: only titles + Introd. Ready to be opened
"When John Kennedy was president, America was a proud country. Today it is a shameful place in freefall, a
grave danger to its own citizens and to the rest of the world."
…
We invade Cuba & failed.. the next was nuke-t and Cuba received
nukes too..
====
For as long as there has been human language, humans have been using it to manipulate one another...
====
13 Fed speakers this week...
====
EV OWNERS IN ILLINOIS MUST PAY $248 A YEAR TO
MAKE UP FOR LOST GAS TAX REVENUE [[ missed yesterday ]]
Electric
vehicle owners in Illinois are going to have
to pay $248 in annual registration fees next year - $100 more than what owners of
gas burning cars pay.
====
The unusual shaking on the west coast
continues to intensify.
….
[[ We
face not only the threat of evil human (WW3) we also face the revanchist nature
whose internal platforms we weakened by exploring gas & oil ]]
====
“American exceptionalism... will remain alive
and well in the 21st century,” concluded
Pompeo. “What’s
good for the United States is good for the world.” [[ FACT: what is good for
this US is very bad for the world ]]
…
[[El trio los “cucos” or espanta-pajaros
ARE
OF COURSE ARE PART OF T-TACTIC Their mission (of
Bolton-Pompeo-Pence) is to promote wars abroad to sell the WMD we have for
sell.. the worse nasty business of our Econ. Who pay them? We pay them with our
taxes.. and ISR too: with our money. Good news:
the world is not afraid of such clowns. Piracy is the only way to keep the
empire ]]
====
The first task of any State is to control the information (propaganda) fed to its citizens.
Totalitarian states eliminate any free exchange of opinions...
…
[[ This is why some
critics called: US IS A TOTALITARIAN FASCISTIC EMPIRE
]]
----
----
By 2030, automation could eliminate 20% to 25% of current jobs --
equivalent to 40 million displaced
workers...
….
[[ Not
only WW3 but also robotics conspire against the future of Americans.
Billonaires don’t want emigrants to do warehouse jobs.. they want to sell rob.
They are the real conspirator of American future: the billionaires. ]]
====
US-WORLD ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State
socialis+K-, D rest in limbo
Day 5 News:
"No
one currency should dominate the market..."
====
"At this stage I think our baseline assumption should be that
there are no coincidences."
====
Italy faces
an "Excessive Deficit" ruling, the first in EU history.Italy's response is to revive a parallel
currency proposal.
….
Some-one is trying to break the UE.. I don’t is Italy. But it could be:
in the time of chaos & Econ disaster for all.. el
“salvese quien pueda” .. es la ley.
====
SUMMARY of PREVIOUS INTERNAT NEWS: only titles + Introd. Ready to be opened
“They should think about moving production to
Russia,”He said, adding that “Chinese goods produced in Russia could be
further sold in the United States and even in Europe.”
====
"Chinese
tourists in the US should fully assess the risks of traveling to the US,
keeping up to date with information about public security."
…
In previous war.. US putting in
concentrat-camps:
====
This is
crazy. Some analysts are predicting 3 Fed eases by year end. Australia and New
Zealand have cut rates. German yields are now negative 0.21%. Nothing screams
recession more loudly!
….
They prepare their Nation to face
reces.. The US don’t.. only Bill-r-taking pre-c
====
SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO
..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars & danger of WW3
That is that I called “FASCISM”
----
----
NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to neo-fascist regimes &
terrorist imperial chaos
REBELION:
España Los abstencionistas Jaime
Richart
====
ALAI ORG
====
RT EN
ESPAÑOL
- Pompeo en un audio filtrado: "Mantener unida a la oposición venezolana nos resultó ser diabólicamente difícil"
- Venezuela y el fin del contrato con el Deutsche Bank: ¿Qué hay detrás de la polémica noticia?
- Huawei y el mayor operador de telefonía móvil de Rusia firman un acuerdo para el desarrollo de tecnología 5G en el país
- "Hay progreso, pero no lo suficiente": Trump anuncia que las negociaciones con México continuarán este jueves
- Lavrov: "Mantuvimos contactos con la oposición venezolana y le criticamos el rechazo de Guaidó al diálogo con Maduro"
- VIDEO: Un veterano de 93 años flirtea con Melania frente a Trump y esta fue la reacción del mandatario
- RUy China acuerdan desarrollar el comercio bilateral en monedas nacionales
- Ejecutan en China a un empresario por violar a 25 niñas
- Sancionar y amenazar: la línea de EE.UU. hacia los países de América Latina
- El Zoom Libia: Estado de quebranto
- Keiser Report La guerra entre ricos y pobres que vive EE.UU.
----
----
INFORMATION CLEARING HOUSE
Deep on the US political crisis: neofascism & internal
conflicts that favor WW3
- Why Trump now wants talks with Iran By Pepe Escobar
- More Police Raids As War On Journalism
Escalates Worldwide By C
Johnstone
- The Murdering of Julian Assange By Peter Koenig
- Chelsea Manning’s Resistance Is Aimed At
Abolishing The Grand Jury Once And For All
By Kevin Gosztola
By Kevin Gosztola
- Video: “Plutocracy V: Subterranean Fire”. By
Kim Petersen
----
----
COUNTER PUNCH
Analysis on US Politics & Geopolitics
Bill Frelick Trump’s
Policies Are Harming Refugees Worldwide
----
----
GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more
business-wars from US-NATO allies
----
----
DEMOCRACY NOW
Amy Goodman’ team
----
----
PRESS TV
Resume of Global News described
by Iranian observers..
----
===
No hay comentarios:
Publicar un comentario