domingo, 16 de junio de 2019

ND JUN 16 19 SIT EC y POL



ND  JUN  16 19  SIT EC y POL 
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco


ZERO HEDGE  ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics


Every party eventually comes to an end. All that is needed is a spark, and that may come when the DOJ finally throws the book at the FAANGs.

To be sure, regulatory concerns facing tech stocks are hardly new. Back in April 2018, Bank of America laid out  "10 reasons why global investors should reduce tech allocations in 2018", pointing out something stunning - technology is the most lightly regulated sector: just 27K regulations (Chart 7) for tech; by comparison manufacturing regulated by 215K rules, financial sector by 128K.
See Chart:
US FED regulations by Sector


In short: if and when regulatory intervention finally picks up, tech could easily go from first to worst, because as Bank of America showed a year ago, virtually every industry bubble was popped by regulation:
See Chart:
Equity Bubles propped by regulations


Meanwhile, within Tech, Software stocks trade with a particularly large valuation premium; in fact one has to go all the way back to the (first) tech bubble to find greater investor euphoria as the median Software stock currently trades at 6x EV/Sales, nearly the highest multiple since the peak of the Tech Bubble, versus 2x for the Russell 3000 median.
See Chart:
Software stock valuations stand near the highest levels since 2000
See more charts at:
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"it is precisely because market prices still retain some reflection of reality that our policy makers and politicians work so desperately to manipulate them."

Free Markets
Not a single person in power wants truly free markets. Central banks were established specifically to tame them. Sweden was first, in 1668. There’s nothing they won’t do to deny the reign of free markets. In 1992 the Riksbank hiked overnight interest rates to 500%. Today the Swedes have set rates at -0.25%. They’re not alone. Japan’s central bank owns over 100% of GDP in Japanese debt. But the ultimate example of market manipulation is the simple fact that $12trln worth of bonds now trade at negative interest rates.

See Chart:
Global Negative Yielding Debt

Telling Tales
US bond yields peaked in Nov as markets expected additional upward rate manipulations by the Fed. Markets forced them to reconsider. Yields repriced violently. And now for some odd reason, investors once again seem to care what the Fed Chairman thinks and says. Anyhow, the forces at play are not isolated to the US. Markets are global.

And the only market that tells a slightly different tale is China where 2yrs were 2.79% (now 2.79%), and 10yrs were 3.54% (now 3.25%).
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...while the world no longer needs to worry about a hawkish US Federal Reserve strangling growth, it now has an even bigger problem on its hands.
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"You spend a week on the land and then it rains three days and a week later you’re doing it all over again.Just tired of dealing with the mud this year..."
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In the US, "bad-data-but-easier-policy" periods saw the S&P 500 post above-average returns only 38% of the time – a win rate that, if it were for a baseball team, would put it near the bottom of the current major league standings.

The S&P 500 jumped 1.1%, capping its best four-day run all year, credit spreads tightened,and bond prices rose. A distinct line of reasoning drove these moves – the idea that “bad is now good”, and that worse economic data make it more likely that the Federal Reserve will reduce interest rates. How much more likely? Bond markets now expect the Fed to cut rates by 86bp over the next 12 months.

We strongly disagree with this “bad is good” logic. The expectation that easing central bank policy can offset weaker data is at odds with both a broad swath of historical data and basic monetary theory. But since many in the market disagree, this feels like a good time to restate our case.

The first thing to note is that markets have faced a backdrop of weakening economic data and lower or easier central bank policy on quite a few occasions. That’s no coincidence. Central banks usually cut interest rates when economic data are weakening, attempting to provide an offset.Therefore, the question of how often "bad is good" is testable.
What would qualify as good news and make us more positive? That’s easy BETTER DATA.
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"If you’re expecting a sleepy summer in markets let me disavow you of that notion. How these 3 events play will have a massive impact on prices, either to the upside or the downside..."
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This trend has been building almost 100 years, and the curve is starting to go parabolic. To use a fashionable word, it’s “unsustainable” for everyone to try living at the expense of everyone else...
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The speculative asset chase over the last decade, which is a direct result of Central Bank activity, has locked investors into a period of near zero prospective total returns in virtually in every asset class for the coming decade...
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US  DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambio


"The tension in the Gulf was generated when Trump decided to pull out of the nuclear deal. Let him pay the price now."
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Following the attacks on the oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman this week the basic question that comes to mind is, Cui bono? Who benefits? ...none of the men on the B-Team profit from peace in the Middle East with respect to Iran.
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Speaking on the eve of the Paris airshow, Boeing CEO, Dennis Muilenburg, admitted to reporters that the company made a "mistake" in handling a problematic cockpit warning system in its 737 Max jetsbefore the two crashes...
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US-WORLD  ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State socialis+K-, D rest in limbo


Nuestras agencias para la DEMOC están hacienda buen trabajo en China. If they die?

Anybody who thought the marches would end with the withdrawal of the extradition bill was too optimistic.
Si los liquidan no mueren muchos Chinos.. mere ‘accidente’ in geo-politics
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Google cuts Huawei off Android; so Huawei may migrate to Aurora. Call it mobile Eurasia integration; the evolving Russia-China strategic partnership may be on the verge of spawning its own operating system – and that is not a metaphor.
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Russian embassy says it's "an act of media warfare"
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The most recent statement, as with the previous one, came with no evidence that any such testing ever took place...
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Whom the gods would destroy, Friedrich Nietzsche famously said, they first make mad. What would Nietzsche make of the current, truly mad US and NATO obsession with charging into the Black Sea?
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO  ..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars & danger of WW3

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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to neo-fascist regimes & terrorist imperial chaos

VIENTO SUR

China:  El feminismo se abre camino  Wang Zheng
México: El catastrófico acuerdo de AMLO con Trump  Manuel Aguilar
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RT EN ESPAÑOL

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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more business-wars from US-NATO  allies

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PRESS TV
Resume of Global News described by Iranian observers..

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