ND
JUN 23 19 SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social
+ Capit-compet in Eco
ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they
documented with graphics
"If
the Fed is truly committed to preemptive rate cuts in order to provide
insurance why did it not cut its policy rate this week?"
Amid record high asset prices in virtually everything
following last week's dovish FOMC, a fresh concern has emerged: the gaping
"alligator jaws" between bond yields and stocks have never
been wider, with the latest thrust coming first after Powell's early June
admission that an easing cycle is imminent, following by last week's even more
dovish FOMC announcement, which confirmed that a July
rate cut is in the books, and sent stocks to new all time highs, while bond
yields tumbled below 2%, the lowest in three years.
See Chart:
S&P vs. 10Y Yield
In not so many words, that is the
ultimate Catch 22 that the Fed has created: the market and economy are only
viable as long as the Fed is backstopping them; once the support goes away, the
wave function - to extend the flawed analogy - of the economy and market
collapses, and the true state of both is exposed (at the cost of trillion in
risk asset losses)….
See Charts:
Market reaction to FED cuts: It’s
the Economy, again
There is another key observation: maybe the surge in both
bonds and stocks is not an ill omen, but perfectly self-explanatory. This is
the argument made in a Friday note from JPM's Nikolaos Panagirtzoglou, in which
the derivatives strategist writes that while this year’s co-movement of bonds
and equities seems rather unusual, "it is actually more common than typically
thought.
See Chart:
MSCI AC World
In dex
This is an important difference to
last year. This year’s bond rally which gathered pace in recent weeks has
unwound entirely the large bond underweight that had emerged in September last
year.
See Chart: Pre Lehman vs Post Lehman
Meanwhile, over on the equity side,
the mirror image of this unwinding of the previous bond underweight is that the current equity overweight is
significantly smaller from that seen in September last year, which at 45.5%
represented a post Lehman high at the time.
So, according to JPMorgan, despite
global equity prices being close to the highs of last September, investors are
not as OW in equities as they were last September simply because bond markets rallied strongly this year making them less
UW in bonds, or to put it in graphic:
See Chart:
Implied Cash allocation by global
non-bank investors
Finally, in the third and most painful for the bulls,
scenario where the Fed and/or other central banks end up being rather reactive
and cut rates in response to weak growth, equities could follow a weak trajectory
similar to more typical previous Fed easing cycles, rather than the strong
trajectory seen during 1995 or 1998. For those who need a reminder, it is also
the case that the last three recessions all followed within a few months after
the Fed's first rate cut. Furthermore as @Northmantrader recently
pointed out, every time the
FED cut their rates while unemployment was below 4%, a recession started almost
immediately?
See Chart:
Blue line: Civilian unemployment
rate vs red line Effective FED Funds rate
In other words, of the above three scenarios only one
scenario, that of a
pre-emptive Fed that is set to provide insurance similar to the 1995 and 1998
episodes, is positive for equities.
And here a problem emerges, because as Bullard
explained last week, preemptive
means cutting rates when growth indicators are still good rather than waiting
for growth indicators to weaken.
And this brings up what JPMorgan believes is the most
important question following this week’s FOMC meeting:
"If
the Fed is truly committed to preemptive rate cuts in order to provide
insurance why did it not cut its policy rate this week?"
,,,
And while not necessarily connected to JPM's line of
reasoning, if perfectly summarizing the zeitgeist on the continued Fed
manipulation and intervention in markets, here is a
must-see chart from Steve Chiavarone, a portfolio manager with Federated
Investors:
See Chart:
... the questions of just how much
longer can the Fed keep indefinitely postponing the "longer" part
will only grow louder, until finally not even the monetary Atlas that is Jay
Powell, can keep the sky from falling any longer.
….
SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-06-23/jpmorgan-there-now-just-one-scenario-positive-stocks
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US
DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds
& corruption. Urge cambio
“The federal government forced
legally married same-sex couples to file as individuals and pay more in taxes for
almost a decade...We need to call out
that discrimination and to make it right..."
…
BRAVO: Asegurando
la captura del voto femenino + +
====
This statement by the judge captures the Alice-in-Wonderland quality of the judicial
persecution of Assange...
====
Researchers
wondered what the nation's most selective colleges and universities would look
like if theyadmitted students solely on
the basis of SAT scores... Their answer: Campuses would be wealthier, whiter, and more
male.
====
Our society has a legal structure of self-rule and ownership of
capital, but in reality it is a
Neofeudal Oligarchy.
====
The killing of consumer sovereignty by manipulat TV Propag
and tons of junk mail
Read info in:
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Quemo casa con
familias dentro y luego dijo que no hay aagua para apagar el incendio
Trade wars,
Comey, Mueller, Korea, Cold War, government shutdown, impeachment, immigration,
invasion, quantitative tightening, Turkey, Venezuela, SWIFT payments,
sanctions, Huawei, Mexico, Iran, Fed independence... Each new worry magically
extends the rally...
…
QT: Deben o no ser juzgados por un Nuevo Nurenberg Court?. Que sentencia pediria para POTUS y su troica?.. paredon
sería un regalo.. el péndulo y el sable Saudi también…quizá
se merecen las hogueras de la Santa Inquisición feudal y
cuando estén ya ceniza, llevamos agua.hirviendo para desinfectar el contexto
ambiental, no vaya ser que hasta las cenizas de esos inhumanos
sea venenosa.
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Apenas
caigan los 1ros misiles se disipa el opio “patriotismo” y muchos vuelan afuera
...American culture creates the kind of people we need to save the world, but they’re also subject
to themost sophisticated propaganda in
the world...
====
'Losing
credibility' you say?
…
"WAR
MONGERING MANIACs".. PERFECT DESCRIPTION
====
Unsurprisingly, the
polling uncovered a deep partisan divide...
See Chart:
Do you support or oppouse US Military actions against Iran?
….
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US-WORLD ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State
socialis+K-, D rest in limbo
Tensions in the Persian Gulf are reaching a point of no return...
….
La Guerra con IRAN es lo que quieren los
reales enemigos del US
====
...it is an excellent case
study in how the international community can properly deal with and
respond to the often irrational and potentially destabilizing actions of former global hegemons when in a
state of decline...
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"A pause would reinforce our current views: a range-bound path for the S&P, with a
downward skew from current levels; a wider bias for credit spreads; and
a preference for government bonds on expectations for further Fed easing."
====
Cuando
preguntaron a los Taiwanese que piensan de Trump? Preferimos China
dijeron
Trump inflicted much pain
on China and vice versa. This is always the case in trade wars. Sideline beneficiaries abound...
====
SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO
..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars & danger of WW3
-Pompeo
Departs for Saudi Arabia, UAE to Build Coalition Against 'State Sponsor of
Terror' Iran Dicen que
el perro rabioso cruzo la trinchera y no regreso ..no body care
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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to neo-fascist regimes &
terrorist imperial chaos
RT EN ESPANIOL
- El jefe del Comando Sur de EE.UU. viaja a Latinoamérica
- Zarif: "Aliados estaban a punto de llevar a Trump a una guerra"
- Trump sobre Bolton: "Si dependiera de él, se enfrentaría al mundo entero de una vez"
- VIDEO: China presenta el primer megaportador de crudo inteligente del mundo
- Los 22 instantes más vívidos de estos siete días
- Diario oficial chino sobre la guerra comercial: "En EE.UU. solo quieren ser 'ganadores' pero no entienden que no pueden ganar"
- Keiser Report "El dólar se dirige al mismo lugar que todas las demás monedas fíat: a la papelera de reciclaje de la historia"
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INFORMATION CLEARING HOUSE
Deep on the US political crisis: neofascism & internal
conflicts that favor WW3
-Iran and Trump on the edge of the abyss By Elijah J. Magnier
-As We Face Armageddon the Western World Is
Leaderless By Paul Craig Roberts
-Iran Had the Legal Right to Shoot Down US Spy
Drone By Marjorie Cohn
-Iran ‘Violates’ Nuclear Deal, After US
‘Withdraws’ Must Read - By Joshua Cho
-Fool Me Twice By Paul Edwards
-Germany vs. Iran – Has Germany Sold Out to
the Devil? By Peter Koeni
-America’s Respectable War Criminals By Rev. William Alberts
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more
business-wars from US-NATO allies
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PRESS TV
Resume of Global News described
by Iranian observers..
- Iran: US cyber attacks on missile systems unsuccessful
- Trump base has ‘no appetite’ for war with Iran
- Europeans 'unwilling' to fulfill JCPOA commitments
- Czechs demand PM quit in largest protest since 1989
- Yemen drone attack on Saudi airport leaves casualties
- US approaches Saudi, UAE for a ‘global coalition’
- Iran eyes $32bn worth of export to nearby countries
- Trump rejects UN Khashoggi probe call to save Saudi ties
- Trump should abandon gunboat policy: Analyst
- ‘6 military, police officials arrested in Venezuela’
- Jordanian govt. rapped for decision on Bahrain confab
- PROGRAMS
- U.S. 'Violation' of Iran Airspace
- Mysterious rocket attacks in Iraq
- Pointless letter from America to Iran
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