jueves, 10 de enero de 2019

JAN 9 19 SIT EC y POL



JAN 9 19  SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Econ


ZERO HEDGE  ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics


The last four days have been the biggest short-squeeze since March 2009
See Chart:
 
This won't end well...

Another day, another incessant bid under the equity market on every dip... (some weakness late on as Trump walked out on Chuck and Nancy)...Trannies dramatically outperformed...BTFD is back!
See Chart:


Stocks are up 8 of the last 10 days now. Best start to a year since 2010... and the best 10-day gain since July 2009...
See Chart:


Most shorter Stocks up &
See Chart


Vix and credit spreads  collapsed further
See Chart:


Dollar Index tumbled


Finally, we note the total disconnect between the weaker dollar (dovish) and hawkish trend in market expectations for Fed rate hike this year...
See Chart:
2019 Fed rate high expectations vs. Dollar index
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As usual, the initial kneejerk moves have retraced and the dollar is sliding and bonds and bullion bid as stocks slide on a dovish Fed...
See Chart:
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"Many" Fed officials already felt on Dec. 19 that Fed could be "patient" on further hikes. ..
See Chart:
2019: rate hike vs. rate cut
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"They always jump for the Fed in the short run. Then the anesthesia wears off and everyone feels the pain again... That’s really all central banks offer...The Bernanke’s of the world can only dull the pain for a little while at a time..."
See Chart:
Benchmark 10 Year UST
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"All we have left is to wipe the slate cleanand say, you know what, this thing did not work. It’s a 60 year experiment that turned out to have a fatal flaw..."
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"The Fed is tightening into weakness and will have to pivot towards easing once it becomes obvious. But it may very well be too late..."


Synchronization was a big part of the story. Growth was not isolated and episodic. Growth was fueling more growth in what seemed to be a sustainable way. The world economy was firing on all cylinders.

Then in 2018 the global growth story came screeching to a halt. Japanese growth went negative in the third quarter of 2018. Germany also went negative. Chinese growth continued its drop (6.5% in the third quarter) instead of stabilizing.

What happened?
See Chart:

In short, it’s war.
Some of these hearings are political stunts just for show. They will make great headlines over a one-day (or one-hour) news cycle but won’t lead to any substantive charges or changes. Yet other hearings could have grave consequences — especially those that may result in criminal charges, including the Clinton Foundation case.

Hanging over all of this is the specter of impeachment. The impeachment process begins in the House of Representatives. If the president is impeached, the matter is referred to the Senate for a trial. If convicted in a Senate trial, the president is removed from office and the Vice President (Mike Pence) becomes president.

Conviction in the Senate requires a super-majority of 67 votes to remove the president. Republicans currently hold 53 Senate seats… Assuming all 47 Democrats vote to remove the president, 20 Republicans would have to switch sides and vote to remove President Trump from office This is extremely unlikely to occur.

The bottom line is that uncertainty reigns and it’s not going away anytime soon. Investors can profit from this with a combination of long-volatility strategies, safe-haven assets, gold and cash.
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US  DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambio


"Every time people feel like they’re getting screwed by the system... every time they feel like someone else has an unfair advantage, there are cries to seize assets, confiscate wealth, and centrally plan prosperity..."
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"A 'Green New Deal' makes no sense on economic grounds, either in spirit or in letter... even if one endorsed a Keynesian economic framework in which the historical New Deal 'worked'..."
My critique at:
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An average of 41% of Chinese VC money in 2018 came from state-owned funds
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My, how their views have changed...
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"I have often wondered what is the real agenda of gun ban advocates. More people die from falls than from being shot. Deaths from accidents far exceed deaths from being shot..."
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US-W ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State socialis+K-, D rest in limbo


"We want to coordinate this process with Russia and Iran."
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Algos sent oil crashing; now algos have unleashed one of the strongest oil rallies in years.
See Charts:

However, as Nomura also points out, for WTI to maintain levels over $50, "systematic trend-followers would need to keep stably accumulating fresh long positions" and that would require an extended move higher, something which after the recent 10 day surge, is unlikely.

Finally, according to Nomura, other major short-term players such as global macro HFs appear to be taking a “wait-and-see” approach by leaving their positions flat. The bank's conclusion: "we doubt CTAs’ 'solo-play' to buy the futures can support WTI levels above $50 going forward."

If the Japanese bank is right, the fledgling oil bull market will be rather short-lived.
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"Police stations, city government buildings and banks have been attacked with petrol bombs and explosives."
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People like to complain that China has abandoned its Communist values in favor of state-directed capitalism. But in at least one way, the rulers of the world's second-largest economy are adhering to the prescriptions of Karl Marx - with a burdensome progressive income tax.
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"As the world re-orders, this disconnect between the real and financial is likely to reduce, and in the process other reserve currencies may emerge... such as the RMB."
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"We will continue to take necessary measures to safeguard national sovereignty and security" 
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO  ..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars & danger of WW3


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SHOWS RT

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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to neo-fascist regimes & terrorist imperial chaos

REBELION

VEN       Pueblos de América: Con la paz no se juega  Javier Tolcachier
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USA       Hamilton: Moneda y esclavitud  Rafael Rodríguez
                Sanciones USA causaro crisis a los kurdos de Irán Douglas Gerrad
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Peru      Las venas abiertas de la minería en Perú  Enric Llopis
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ECOL      ONU:  Por la producción campesina  Darío Aranda
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OPIN     Ladridos limeños   Atilio A. Boron
                Derechos y nuevas derechas  Marcel Lhermitte
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CULT      Prólogo del libro Las cenizas de Prometeo  Joaquim Sempere
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FEM       El trabajo reproductivo  El Captor
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                Guatemala   Urge tomar decisiones  Kajkoj Máximo Ba Tiul
                Cuba:  Cuba plural   Osmany Sánchez
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ALAI NET

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                Ante nuevo gob de ultrader, que San Jorge nos socorra L Boff
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RT EN ESPAÑOL

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RU-VEN                   Rusia advierte a US contra posible interven militar en Ven
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COUNTER PUNCH
Analysis on US Politics & Geopolitics

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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more business-wars from US-NATO  allies


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DEMOCRACY  NOW
Amy Goodman’s Team


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PRESS TV
Resume of Global News described by Iranian observers..


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