JAN 8 19
SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social
+ Capit-compet in Econ
ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they
documented with graphics
It's the start of January, which
means it's time for Jeff Gundlach's "Just Markets" webcast,
previewing what he and his DoubleLine fund expect from the capital markets.
Citi's economic data change index
has hit troughs not seen in many years for most regions, and especially Europe.
See Chart:
Economic Data Change: US, Global, Europa & Emerging
Markets
Gundlach then calculates that $1 trillion in QE is roughly
equivalent to 100 bps, a key topic for markets now especially when it remains unclear if the Fed is - or isn't - on autopilot when it comes to the Fed's balance sheet.
See Chart:
FED Funds with shadow rate and FED Balance Sheet
https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/fed%20funds%20wu%20xia.jpg?itok=BTRbraW4
A better economic report card can be found in various
measures of business and consumer sentiment, which are still relatively solid
and a ways away from hinting at a recession, even if
they are starting to "flash yellow" for recession.
See Chart:
Measures of US Business & Consumer Sentiment
Additionally, while recession concerns have been all the
buzz on Wall Street in recent weeks, another chart showing that there is little
imminent contraction on the horizon is the following chart showing how junk
bond spreads have acted 6 months ahead of recessions (those in 2001 and 2007),
although as Gundlach does note, the risk of a recession
by the red line does suggest that the recession risk is rising, even if it is
still relatively early.
See Chart:
US Corporate High Yield Heading into Recessions
Still, something to be concerned about is that US T-Bill
yields have now surpassed bond market yields; and as the following BofA chart
reference by Gundlach shows, every time this inversion
has happened a period of market volatility has followed.
See Chart: US T-Bill
Yiled vs. Global Bond Market Yield
Next, Gundlach looks at the difference in rate hike
expectations between the Fed via the "dots" and the market, and
highlights the dramatic drop in market-implied rate
hike odds following the Fed's recent dovish relents.
See Chart: Fed Dots vs Marked
Expectation 2018 & 2019
Meanwhile, a clear theme that has emerged is that for
Gundlach the biggest variable in the market as we enter 2019 is THE (DECLINING) STRENGTH OF THE DOLLAR, and looking at
the following Fib and relative strength index, Gundlach has spotted a peak and
cautions that should the 38 Fib retracement be breached, "I would not be surprised to see us
moving quickly to 94 in the DXY" (he adds that for
those who don't like to focus on technicals, you can "cover your ears and hum".)
See Chart: US DOLLAR INDEX (DXY)
The bond king then focuses on one of his favorite
relationships - that of the 10Y TSY vs the Copper/Gold ratio, which to Gundlach
suggests that the 10Y yield is going lower. Rhetorically, he asks "Why don’t we just follow this all the time?"
See Chart:
Cooper.Gold ratio & 10 Year US T-Yield
There can not be a Gundlach presentation with the requisite
warning about the growing leverage in the system,
and sure enough here it is, looking at the surge in the
NATIONAL DEBT in the past decade.
"If you tuned out, now tune back in,'' Gundlach prefaced the following
chart, and reminds listeners that in fiscal 2018 total US debt by a whopping
$1.4 trillion, far above the roughly $900 billion budget deficit. "This is a completely horrific
situation" Gundlach
exclaims...
See Chart: Leverage Problems
... and
asks "are we growing at all or is it just the increase in
debt", then showing that the change in public debt debt is
nearly 50% higher than the change in the official budget deficit.
See Chart:
Annual Change in total Public debt vs. Official Budget
Deficit
Gundlach then referenced the book titled "Bankruptcy
1995: The Coming Collapse of America and How to Stop It'' by Harry E. Figgie,
noting that while it was hyperbole at the time, "some of those tables kind
of look like they'll happen in the next few years,'' and
warning that "we could be on the tipping point of this debt compounding
cycle." The chart below showing soaring
interest expense projections, he notes "is from the CBO, not one of those doomers."
See Chart: Interest Costs Rising for US Govt
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"2019 is looking like one of those either/or
years, where growing financial instability leads to either a
2008-style financial crash or another round of asset inflation... both scenarios are good for gold."
Take a look at the
exponential level of debt since the late 1970s until now and note how much
faster debt is growing relative to GDP (yellow line). You don’t have to be a
rocket scientist to realize at some point if debt is
growing exponentially and income (GDP) on at some low level of linear growth, a
day of bankruptcy lies ahead. Yet
with each bubble, the U.S. continues to pile more debt
upon debt, and the ratio of Debt to GDP continues to grow still further.
See Chart: A Replay of the 1970’s ?
Given the timing of the current credit cycle, we are nearing a point in
time when either the Fed is somehow able to hold the dollar system together for
another cycle or the system itself blows up or implodes, leading to a new
global monetary regime.
In the optimistic scenario gold is likely to
behave as it did after 2008, when it rose for the next four years. If my more
pessimistic (but very realistic) possible outcome takes place, the dollar will
be replaced as the world’s reserve currency and gold will be the only safe
haven, leaving it priced at levels in terms of dollars that may be beyond the
imagination of even the craziest gold bugs. It’s
simple math: if the dollar nears a state of worthlessness, gold rises to levels
approaching infinity.
…
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Short News:
[[ We never got such
independen & it won’t be ever .. big Banks has their own interest, no
NAT-Int]]
"Hard-won central bank independence and transparency could
erode...policymakers can protect their constituents by redoubling their support
for central bank independence..."
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"The
driver to market movement is not valuations. Rather, it is the degree of the system’s liquidity condition..."
The Tremor Before the Quake & The Fed’s
$450bn Balance Sheet Reduction
See Chart: FED Reserve Balance Sheet
Watch the money!
: Tightened Liquidity
Last week, Dennis Gartman produced this chart of the declining monetary
base:
See Chart:
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US
DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds
& corruption. Urge cambio
"Add up Fragmented, Unevenly Distributed, Asymmetric and Opaque
and you get a world spinning out of centralized control .No wonder The
Powers That Be are trying so hard not to reveal their growing sense of
desperation..."
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With every passing month, Americans
are drowning ever deeper in debt, and loving every minute of it.
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US-W ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol &
global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State
socialis+K-, D rest in limbo
In the
short term, Venezuela helps OPEC
to meet some immediate production cut goals. In the long term,
however, Venezuela will likely
remain a drain on OPEC’s overall capacity...
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If only Bill Gross had known this ahead of time...
Alas, in late May
2018,: the opposite happened when a levered bet for Gross' Janus
Unconstrained Fund imploded after the gap between US and German yields spiked
further, resulting in massive losses for his investment vehicle.
See Chart: Janus Henderson
Global Unconstrained Bond Fund
To help the world's financial "professionals' with any
comparative yield analysis we present the following BofA chart, which shows
yields from around the world, in both public and corporate markets, when hedged
for USD exposure. What it shows is something rather surprising: in a world in which there is still approximately
$8 trillion in negative yielding debt, the debt instrument which has the lowest,
FX-adjusted yields is... the 10Y US Treasury! Perhaps just as
surprising, the 4th lowest yielding hedged instrument, after Canadian
and Australian benchmark bonds, is the 30Y US Treasury.
See Chart:
Global Yields: hedged vs. USD
…
SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-01-08/who-has-worlds-lowest-yield-here-surprising-answer
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO
..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars & danger of WW3
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RELATED 1
RELATED 2
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SHOWS RT
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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to neo-fascist regimes &
terrorist imperial chaos
REBELION
BRA Bolsonaro Cincuenta planes d guerra contra los
trabajadores
Bolsonaro, ¿mito o monstruo? Katu Arkonada
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ALAI NET
No existe tal presión, lo que falta
es convicción
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RT
EN ESPAÑOL
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Entr a Laura Azcurra: "Muchos hombres han sido
esclavos del sistema patriarcal"
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Keiser Report "Detrás de la emisión de moneda
no hay nada"
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INFORMATION CLEARING HOUSE
Deep on the US political crisis: neofascism & internal
conflicts that favor WW3
Reasons To Believe In Trump’s Syria
Withdrawal Are Vanishing By
Caitlin Johnstone
If the troops don’t come home it’s because Trump is either
complicit or impotent.
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Does Trump has any power over US foreign policy ? Of course
he has it. He is accomplice .
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Erdogan’s Gift to Bolton By Daniel Larison
Erdo es un
cerdo que cree poder jugar con la 2 poten; US-RU. Lo cierto es que el controla
el circuito de terroristas islámicos, que el US financia y prepara. El Cerdo y
el US quieren dividir Syria y liquidar a
los Kurdos. Los Kurd ya están bajo protecc de Syria. Solo falta que RU apoye la
expuls de ambos US y Turk
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A Majority of Americans Do Not Believe the
Official 9/11 Story By Paul
Craig Roberts
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more
business-wars from US-NATO allies
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DEMOCRACY NOW
Amy Goodman team
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PRESS TV
Resume of Global News described by Iranian observers..
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