JAN 10 19 SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social
+ Capit-compet in Econ
ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they
documented with graphics
MUST
READ! Go to the source below to read the entire art.
[[ Thesis: The greatest boom in decades has turned out to be the most fragile boom
ever; therefore, it wasn’t a boom. Meaning: Most Econ Info published
on bonanza during Trump Gov is FALSE ]]
And just like that, it’s all different...
For more than a
year, two years, really, we’ve heard constantly about wage
pressures. The US economy buoyed by several domestic factors as well as
globally synchronized growth was in danger of getting too far out of hand. The
unemployment rate said it was time – three years ago in 2015.
The lower
the unemployment rate fell, the more likely the dangers of labor pressures. Orthodox thinking is consistent in its
Phillips Curve rituals. This was the basis for “rate
hikes” plus balance sheet normalization (what
some call QT, or quantitative tightening).
The last
hike was barely three weeks ago. In announcing it, the Federal Reserve’s
Chairman Jay Powell played resoundingly confident. Not just in the
view of economic risks, inflation, but also why. The economy was strong,
stronger, and stronger still.
The minutes of that
meeting, just released, curiously paint a very different
picture of both the debate and offered result. This actually isn’t a surprise.
Outwardly, officials project what they think is required. Monetary policy has no money in it, therefore what’s left is
confidence and confident-sounding declarations. Powell featured exactly
that.
Markets responded
quite differently, of course, explaining the not-so-subtle change. The Chairman bluffed, eurodollar futures, oil prices, stocks
and UST futures (pretty much everyone) called him on it.
SEE CHART:
CFTC COT : US
Treasury Bond Features From: ALHAMBRA
Investments
The result is how the same FOMC meeting has produced very different
interpretations of it. Powell says strong, the official minutes say “muted.” As in:
With an increase in the target range at this
meeting, the federal funds rate would be at or close to the lower end of the
range of estimates of the longer-run neutral interest rate, and participants
expressed that recent developments, including the volatility in financial
markets and the increased concerns about global growth, made the appropriate
extent and timing of future policy firming less clear than earlier. Against
this backdrop, many participants expressed the view that, especially in an environment of muted inflation pressures,
the Committee could afford to be patient about further policy firming.
[emphasis added]
Wait a minute. Inflation was in danger of being a monster the Fed could
ill-afford to delay in resisting. That was the whole “strong” economy thing.
Now it’s muted?
Some participants cited a weaker near-term
trajectory for economic growth or a muted
response of inflation to tight labor market conditions
as factors contributing to the downward revisions in their assessments of the
appropriate path for the policy rate. [emphasis added]
Something big is clearly missing, and the official minutes admitted
this fact (in their own muted fashion).
Of course, this is all theater. The only thing
moving the CPI was WTI not wages. That didn’t stop the media from playing along with its constant, fatuous writings about the non-existent labor shortage.
The LABOR SHORTAGE!!!! was nothing short of emotional projection
(including the Beige Book).
The greatest boom in decades has turned out to be
the most fragile boom ever; therefore, it wasn’t a boom.
Rather than stay an EM crisis, or “overseas turmoil” in the parlance of
2015, after May 29 the cancer (contagion) spread
inward. Late in the year, it became pretty obvious the disease was serious.
If slight eurodollar futures inversion wasn’t enough to get your attention,
then WTI contango. And if that wasn’t enough, broad UST and eurodollar
inversions.
And like that, from inflation hysteria and a resistant strong economy
to “muted” and “volatility in financial markets and the
increased concerns about global growth.” Always behind, concern about
global growth was January 2018 not January 2019; we’re way past that.
We’ve been
treated instead to the bumbling dissembling and absurd psychology of the
emotionally desperate.
Transparency in this
latter case only confirms what people increasingly suspect. Policymakers really have no idea what they are doing and
that’s what’s being exposed. I expect that over the coming months
policymakers here and elsewhere are going to really regret overhyping 2017’s
small economic uptick. Market reaction, more than
what’s already at stake, MIGHT NOT BE MUTED.
…
SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-01-10/epic-flip-flop-surefire-inflation-muted-three-weeks
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... this
curve steepening, after a period of pronounced flattening, is a good indication
of imminent recession despite continued strength in the labour market.
See Chart:
Don’t be fooled – US payrolls often
accelerate JUST BEFORE A RECESSION
And the punchline for why the SocGen permabear is convinced
an "imminent recession" is coming: "this curve steepening, after a period of
pronounced flattening, is a good indication of imminent recession despite
continued strength in the labour market."
See Chart:
After
pronounced flatering , the Yield curve steepens just before recessions
See more charts at:
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[ If ‘investors’ see dark
clouds in the sky= chances of rain. If they see dense white below 35F=snow ]
"This means a market panic
far larger than the Panic of 2008..."
READ THIS:
The case for a
pending financial collapse is well grounded. Financial crises occur on a
regular basis including 1987, 1994, 1998, 2000, 2007-08. That averages out to
about once every five years for the past thirty years. There has not been a
financial crisis for ten years so the world is overdue. It’s also the case that each crisis is bigger than the one before and
requires more intervention by the central banks.
For
now, it’s not clear which way things will break next. Volatility is back and markets are still in a precarious
position. Fed chairman Jay Powell threw markets a bone last Friday when
he basically said all rate hikes are off until further notice and that he’s
willing to scale back QT “if needed.” Markets have naturally rallied since
Powell’s remarks.
If you still need proof that today’s rigged markets
still require support from the Fed, here it is. But it’s far from clear the
next crisis can be avoided at this point.
You don’t want to be heavily exposed to these markets. It’s
far better to get out too early than too late. You should not be the last to be
get ready. Start now to
decrease equity allocations and increase your allocations to cash and gold so
you can weather the coming storm.
Preparation means 10% percent of your investible assets in
gold or silver and another 30% in cash. That allocation will preserve wealth
and provide dry powder for bottom-fishing in the crisis to come.
…
SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-01-10/heres-where-next-crisis-starts
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"Asset markets have rebounded significantly over the past week. To
move further, they will need decisive
confirmation from Powell and Clarida that the pause is likely to last through
H1 ..."
The last month has
seen a roller-coaster of chaos
in stock markets, Fed attitudes, and market-implied
expectations of Fed sentiment.
See Chart:
S&P500 vs. 2019 Fed Rate Change
Expectation
Markets
likely to be less ‘patient’ if Fed backtracks
At a minimum,
investors will look for Powell and Clarida to endorse the recent
asset-market-friendly Fed comments. Any effort to hedge or walk them back
would probably lead to quick selling. We recently lowered our 10Y US Treasury
yield forecasts to 2.75% for end-2019 and 2.50 for end-Q1-2019 (Waving
goodbye to 3% territory).
So, can Powell keep the greatest
10-day run in stocks in a decade going?
See Chart: S&P vs 10D RoC
…
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US
DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds
& corruption. Urge cambio
"The vast majority of us are deeply, deeply dependent on the system. That is fine and dandy as
long as the system is functioning well, but what if someday it stops functioning altogether?"
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US-W ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol &
global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State
socialis+K-, D rest in limbo
Sings of global recession:
This time last week, the market had started to price a chance of Fed cut
in 2019. A week later that
has been priced out and rates markets have returned to pricing a (small) chance
of a hike (see first chart). Despite that, the dollar has fallen
with the euro rallying to its highest level in almost three months.
Submitted by Nomura's Bilal Hafeez
Part of the reason for this is that global
growth expectations have also risen which can be seen by Euro-area and Chinese
stocks outperforming US stocks and the bounce in commodity markets. This
has helped rest of the world currencies against the dollar.
A bigger reason, perhaps, is that
the dollar has been too strong relative to interest rates for a while now, whether
one looks at US yields alone (first chart) or
rate differentials (see second chart).
See second chart:
Moreover, focusing on poor (lagged) Euro-area data has proven
to be a mistake. The euro ignored the plunge in November German industrial
production released on Tuesday morning, and it was already falling before
today’s poor French IP number. Rather, US news, notably
speeches by Fed officials and FOMC minutes, have been the critical triggers for
dollar moves (see third chart).
See Chart:
Euro cares about FED not European Data
…
SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-01-10/socgen-we-went-pricing-rate-cut-rate-hike-one-week
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO
..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars & danger of WW3
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Las pirañas no se comen entre si, pero estas
SI. This is the worse type pi
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Is the next the shutdown of Free Press? .. to silence anti-T
critiques= open Fascism
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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to neo-fascist regimes &
terrorist imperial chaos
Marisa: la
viol domest –como cualquier otra viol- es ataque físico a 1 persona y si ocurre
entre parejas (casados u otros) es signo de descomunic y/o imcompatib psicol. Este tipo de violen lo
resuelve 1 psicol especialist en probl de familia, de los contrario pasa a 1
Corte (si hay niños) que decreta los termin de la separac y divorcio. Esta
claro que el autor de este tipo de violen puede ser el hombre o la mujer
(cargar el dado a favor de 1 de ellos es injusto, por decir lo menos). La violencia de genero hace parte del
Mov Feminista mundial (lo que tuvo 3 etapas: 1920, 1960
y 1980. Al parecer nos vamos a la 4ta etapa: el Mov fem contra el WW3 que
implica exterminio mundial de hom y mujer. Es bien sabido desde Juana de Arco
que cruzo un campo de batalla desnuda para decirle a los soldados franceses e
ingleses que ellas no quieren maridos mutilados ni infectados por los gases de
las guerra. Que los ricos que financian esta guerra manden a sus hijos al campo
de batalla, pero Uds deben regresa a su hogar a cuidar a sus familias). La violencia de genero
lucho 1ro contra la segregación de las mujeres en los centros de trabajo:
pidieron ellas igual salario por el mismo tipo de trabajo. Y pidieron también el
derecho al voto. Lo que en 1920 les fue concedido en
America Y Europa. En 1960 las mujeres blancas y
negras se unieron al Civil Right Mov de Martin Luther King, Rosa Park se hizo
famosa cuando rechazo ser sacada de su asiento en un Bus destinado solo para
blancas. Inicio ella el mas grande Paro Nacional contra las empresas de ómnibus. Sus caminatas
en las calles hacia sus centros de trabajo terminaron en mitines masivos contra
el racismo y esto fue lo que le dio vida al Mov
social de Martin Luther King. Simone de Beauvoir dijo entonces que la
mujer y hombre no nacen como tales se hacen ellos mismos en el proceso de la
lucha. Esa es la diferencia entre sexo (H-M) y gender. El genero es por
tanto una auto-convicion ideolog de orientación profundamente humanista. El Mov que se inició en 1970 y que estallo con fuerza en
1980 exigio Salud y Educación para todos. Lo exigieron las mujeres (the best for all). En 1980 se agregaron dos demandas mas : free contraception y derecho
al aborto. Las pastillas para evitar ser preñadas ya habían nacido y si por A o
B resultaban preñadas, demandaron derecho al aborto. Las luchas por
derechos sociales avanzan hoy a exigir se pare el WW3 y
se inicie el desmantelamiento nuclear. Y ya hay mujeres en los mitines de
US de hoy portando pancartas con esta
demanda. Se avanza entonces hacia un Mov de esencia fuertemente
antimperialista.. porque sin guerras no hay imperio.
Marisa, yo fui Prof de
Sociologia en Peru y la Fulbright me trajo aquí para trabajar como Prof
visitante, lo que aproveche para sacar mi Master degree en Ciencias Polit y mi
PhD en la U de Pittsburgh. Lo que te cuento aquí es solo una revisión rápida de
un tema que es de esencia sociológica. Espero haber respondido a tu
pregunta. Te deseo un Feliz anio 2019,
un anio de lucha por supuesto. Chao. Hugo Adan.
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RT EN
ESPAÑOL
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Adios
al Dollar: Rusia se deshace de 100.000 millones
de dólares de sus reservas
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Detrás de la noticia Al borde del abismo
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INFORMATION CLEARING HOUSE
Deep on the US political crisis: neofascism & internal
conflicts that favor WW3
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THE TERRIBLE FORTHCOMING DESTRUCTION OF THE
"CARIBBEAN BASIN"
By Thierry Meyssan
This is nothing like the overthrow
of pro-Soviet regimes, but the destruction of all regional State structures,
without consideration for friends or political enemies.
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A New Narrative Control Firm Works To Destroy
Alternative Media By Caitlin
Johnstone
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Forgotten France Rises Up By Serge Halimi
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What Are We Working For “At Eternity’s Gate”? By Edward Curtin
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COUNTER PUNCH
Analysis on US Politics & Geopolitics
Linda Ford Women
Politicals of the American Empire
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Julian Rose ‘The
Fusion Doctrine’ A Totalitarian Takeover
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more
business-wars from US-NATO allies
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DEMOCRACY NOW
Aymy Goodman’s team
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PRESS TV
Resume of Global News described by Iranian observers..
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