JAN 3
19 SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal
debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Econ
ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is
over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics
If today is any indication of
what to expect from the rest of 2019, then hold on to your hats.
Stocks were already on the
backfoot after Monday's shocking Apple revenue guidance cut and the overnight
volley of currency flash crashes, yet just as they were attempting to stage a
modest rebound following news of Bristol-Myers massive $74 billion acquisition
of Celgene and the best ADP payrolls report since February 2018, the hammer hit
after the ISM reported a plunge in the December
manufacturing ISM, which tumbled to 54.1, the lowest print since Nov 2016 and the biggest monthly drop since the
financial crisis.
See Chart:
That was enough to crush any
fledgling animal spirits and steamroll any BTFDers, and as fears of an imminent
economic recession re-emerged, markets tumbled, with the Dow Jones promptly dropping as
much as 650 points lower and after a modest attempt to rebound around
noon, it resumed its slide to close at session lows,
down 662 points, or 2.84%, with the S&P down 2.5%.
See Chart: Dow Jones
And speaking of economic fears,
both of Bloomberg's two main Economic surprise indexes
turned negative for the first time since Trump was elected, wiping out all
economic optimism since the Trump election.
See Chart: Animal Spirits
Starting to Hibenate?
While Apple was the biggest hit
to the Dow, responsible for 100 points of the drop, it was a bad day overall,
with just one Dow company - dividend-paying Verizon - in the green.
Apple's plunge predictably hit
the Nasdaq the hardest, which fell 3.1%, even as
some other sectors performed relatively well, with the
banks, housing and small caps dropping just over 1%.
See Chart:
Much of the volatility in
today's market could have been avoided if traders had only heeded the signs of
the past few months: as Alec Young, managing director at FTSE Russell told
Bloomberg, "the market is the wisdom of all
investors -- it was discounting this type of news-flow with the sharp and violent sell-off we got in December.
When it makes a big move, up or down, it’s telling you positive or negative
things about future developments. The extreme move down was telling you we’d
get this type of news-flow."
Of course, it's always easier
to make such profoundly philosophical observations in retrospect.
But while much of the drama was
confined to stocks, the true chaos was in rates, where
shorts were crushed (recall "Sorry
Jeff: The Treasury Short Squeeze Hasn't Even Begun Yet") and a furious buying spree repriced the entire curve sharply
lower...
See Chart:
Meanwhile the 10Y yield plunged from 2.62% as low as 2.54%, closing around
2.56%...
See
Chart: 10 Y TSY YIELD
... the
real fireworks were in the short end, where the 2-Year, 3-Year, and 5-Year yields all dropped
below the effective Fed Funds rate.
Meanwhile,
anticipated nothing short of armageddon, the market has now priced out any
future rate hikes, and not only sees 7% odds
of a March rate cut, but is
now pricing in a full rate cut by April 2020, suggesting it is
convinced the recession will hit some time in the next 12 months.
See Chart:
March 2019 FOMC Meeting
Dollar Index: In a surprising
twist, however, instead of seeing the usual flight to safety into the dollar, the greenback tumbled today sliding to the lowest level since
early November.
See Chart:
Meanwhile, with risk assets
broadly liquidated, it will come as no surprise that credit was hammered as
spreads on both Investment Grade IG and High Yield HYcontinued to
blow out wider.
See
Chart:
HY and
IG SPREADS
With nothing else working, traders rediscovered a true flight to safety, namely GOLD and SILVER, both
of which surged to the highest levels since June and gold
is now knocking on $1300.
See
Chart:
GOLD
& SILVER
…
====
There are some very conflicting indications about the labor
market.
See Chart:
Announced Layoffs in the US Construction Industry
…
===
"Frankly, recent market
movements have not given us any reason to be concerned. Banks are well
capitalized. Actually, they are superbly well capitalized at this point in
time."
[[ Why the slide then?..
Lack of trust in our spirited Gvt?.. If this is the case.. they’re right ]]
===
"All that kind of created almost
a perfect storm to drive down prices farther than people anticipated..."
===
Eight hedge funds that own large
stakes in Apple have seen the value of their holdings plunge about $2.13
billion since the company cut its revenue outlook. And then there is the Swiss
National Bank.
===
"It’s not going to be just
Apple. There are a heck of a lot of U.S. companies that have sales in China
that are going to be watching their earnings being downgraded next year until
we get a deal with China."
===
Apple seems to have two choices -
neither is good for the stock. Handsets are no longer cool. Apple is no longer
a status symbol. The company can keep average selling prices where it is and
keep losing market share and eventually become less relevant.
===
At least Trump will be happy.
See Chart:
===
Following in GM's footsteps from last
April, Ford announced it will stop providing monthly sales updates and will
only offer the data 4 times a year.
===
The investment bank expects numerous
automakers to cut their guidance at the Detroit Auto Show.
===
US DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is
obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambio
"The
United States Treasury has taken in MANY billions of dollars from the Tariffs
we are charging China and other countries that have not treated us
fairly."
===
House Democrats are still
"down with NDP"...
===
An NBC journalist resigned with a
statement which highlights the immense resistance that ostensibly liberal mass
media outlets have to antiwar narratives, skepticism of US military agendas,
and any movement in the opposite direction of endless military expansionism.
===
Savage... stupidity
Agst E Warren
===
"No matter how powerful you are,
you can’t dictate to markets for very long without there being a
comeuppance."
If there’s one thing I’ve
learned in my twenty plus years of market-watching it is that markets hate
uncertainty. Uncertainty breeds volatility and volatility usually prefaces
a panic.
Donald Trump learned an important lesson this month
when the equity markets slapped him silly for attacking FOMC Chairman Jerome
Powell for raising interest rates. Trump came across in his tweets
as a paranoid teenager, all but accusing Powell of trying to ruin his
presidency by undercutting his brilliant economic recovery.
No matter how powerful you are, you can’t dictate to
markets for very long without there being a comeuppance. Even the Fed understands this. That’s why
for the past ten years central banks have embarked on a
communications policy to massage markets first, to prep them for any changes in
monetary policy.
Trump looks willing to gut global trade, if not start
an outright trade war, to get what he wants from China. His advisors and foreign policy wonks in D.C. want WAR
with Iran and Russia to make the world safe for Israel.
And he wants everyone else to
pay for it because he sees our allies as a bunch of
losers freeloading off American largesse.
===
"We’re in uncharted
territory"
===
Paid for by the Pentagon...
===
"We have to wait and see what happens with the Mueller
report..."
[[ Blah bla.. The FACT is that many Dems & Reps
are abandoning their parties ]]
===
"The Senate will
not waste its time"
===
US-W
ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China,
RU, Iran search for State socialis+K-, D rest in limbo
Hours after Pompeo condemned the
"defiant" launch as testing "virtually the same technology as ICBMs."
===
"Rather than a diplomatic embarrassment
bordering on treason, Flynn’s conduct at the RT event provided some modest benefit to the U.S. intelligence
community"
===
Russia has formally indicted US
citizen Paul Whelan, a 48-year-old US Marine and security contractor, for being
a spy
===
SPUTNIK
and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO ..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars
& danger of WW3
RELATED 1
RELATED 2
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CAL:
Los Angeles. ‘Protect Yourself Now!': Earthquake Early
Warning App Available
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SHOWS RT
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NOTICIAS
IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to
neo-fascist regimes & terrorist imperial chaos
REBELION
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” Para vivir en santa calma / o sobra la materia, o sobra el alma”
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COL M
Montoya ante la JEP: Oport para verdad o estrat de impunidad?
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ALAI NET
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RT EN ESPAÑOL
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INFORMATION
CLEARING HOUSE
Deep on the US political
crisis: neofascism & internal conflicts that favor WW3
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On Trump’s Syrian Pullout By Richard Falk – Daniel Falcone
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'Netanyahu Got Everything He Wanted From
Trump Administration' By
Itamar Eichner
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The Witch Hunt: From Pontius Pilate to the
Labour Party By Gilad Atzmon
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Resistance Is the Supreme Act of Faith By Chris Hedges
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The New Year Past and Future By James Petras
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COUNTER
PUNCH
Analysis on US Politics &
Geopolitics
Jeff
Mackler Mumia
Abu-Jamal Wins Major Court Victory
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GLOBAL
RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol
crisis that leads to more business-wars from US-NATO allies
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PRESS
TV
Resume of Global News described
by Iranian observers..
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