JAN 12
19 SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal
debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Econ
ZERO
HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is
over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics
This could create huge headaches
for investors, business-owners and policy makers...
For equity market bulls, Friday's
CPI data couldn't have been more of a gift if the report came wrapped
up with a bow. Falling neatly in line with the market's expectations, headline
core inflation downshifted to 1.9%, the weakest reading since August 2017. Even
more importantly, relenting price pressures sent one of
the most widely watched inflation gauges back below the Fed's 2% Maginot Line,
handing the "data dependent" central bank more justification to put
off hiking rates until H2.
See Chart:
But as is often the case with US data - particularly
measures of inflation which chronically under-represent the true level of
inflation in the economy, as
we have explained in the past - the devil is
in the details. And Friday's print
was no exception.
To wit: While headline inflation slipped, the subindex for
full-service food and snacks - which represents the costs of dining at
full-service restaurants - climbed 0.5%, its largest month-over-month increase
since 2011.
So why the
reason for the divergence?
See Chart:
Particularly
considering that the cost of food - which, as we understand it, is the
primary product sold at restaurants - remains below its levels from the
beginning of 2018.
See Chart:
Here's a summary of Devonshire's summary conclusions:
- US official CPI calculation is governed, and possibly distorted, by numerous and complex technical decisions
- Inflation reporting is less a measure of purchasing power (and therefore a financial tool), and increasingly a process of affecting macro-economic policies (and therefore a policy lever)
- Real gross domestic product (GDP) measures, yield curves, and treasury issued inflation protected securities (e.g. TIPS), government and union / minimum wages all rely on official US inflation indices that are subject to these distortions
- Most financial, wealth management models rely on a price stability assumption and default to 3% inflation input – what would happen to these models if the true value was closer to 7-11%?
- If we re-compute a purchasing power CPI, de-sensationalize contrarian reporting, and remain disinterested with modern economic policies, we arrive at a 7-9% practical CPI rate over the past decade
- This has profound implications on reported vs. actual standard of living, and might explain the rapid appreciation of American consumer debt, potential reduction in perceived vs. reported quality of life, not to mention unexpected political trends
- Post-1990 inflation of 7-9%, not 3% would also suggest near “bubble-like” conditions exist across many consumer sectors
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For anybody who
doubts the CPI's importance as a policy-setting tool, consider the following
comments made Thursday (a day before the latest CPI print) by Fed Vice Chairman
Richard Clarida, who hinted that the recent "slowing" in inflation
had lessened the pressure on the Fed to raise interest rates (according to the
median projections in the central bank's latest "dot plot", Fed
policymakers anticipated in December that the central bank would hike rates
only two times next year, down from three previously, while expectations for
the long-run terminal rate declined to 2.8%, from 3%).
Clarida said in a speech on Thursday that “inflation
has surprised to the downside recently, and it is not yet clear that inflation
has moved back” to the central bank’s goal on a sustainable basis.
Despite the various sub-indexes published to give investors a more
comprehensive breakdown of where pricing pressures are showing up in the
economy, the methods used to boil all of this down into a headline number -
which is often all anybody looks at - remain surprisingly opaque.
Which means the data are much more prone to
manipulation than many might understand.
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"Those short-vol
products, those VIX ETPs, the weak hands of the table, that was just the first phase of
what is going to be a multi-year cycle and rebalance in the vol regime as many
of these institutional short volatility strategies come unwound...."
Listen to the full interview below:
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Short news:
"...many
growth stories priced for future perfection may continue to rely on private capital to avoid pricing in
the new reality..."
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America's energy policy blunders are nowhere more obvious
than in the shale oil space, where it's finally dawning on folks that
these wells are going to produce a
lot less than advertised...
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US DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is
obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambio
"Krugman’s
academic research pinpointed the optimal
tax rate on high earners to be more than 80%... So, Ocasio-Cortez’s
proposal doesn’t go far enough to
produce economic salvation for the masses..."
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"The anti-war
Democrat gaslit themselves into ignoring or forgiving their president’s
expansion of George W Bush’s wars, aided by a corporate media which
marginalized, justified, and often outright
ignored Obama’s horrifying military expansionism."
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"There is one main issue that
is central to the rest, and that is the issue of war and peace."
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"...add
these and a few other negative feedback loops together, and you get a societal breakdown that’s being
reflected on big screens and small..."
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"Americans like to imagine
ourselves as rough-hewn, freedom-loving, don't-tread-on-me rebels.
But after decades of corruption
and conditioning... today’s Americans may well be among the most docile people on earth."
[[ Help to put him down 1st… Then
the answer could be: QUE SE VAYAN TODOS! ]]
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DON’T VOTE: "TAKE
THIS VOTE AND SHOVE IT!"
"I offer here an idea to drive a stake into the heart of the ruling elite while requiring no
effort, no rallies, no
demonstrations and no violence..."
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"...supporters of the
status quo are likely to respond that the TSA 'keeps us safe' [[ safe from what?..
from the terrorism we practice with our
Saudi friends ]] and only a federalized version of airport security
can work... Unfortunately, for them, there is no evidence to support this position..."
[[ The main reason to abolish TSA is ACOSO SEXUAL as defined by Marianne Leyton. Or read
what Bety Friedman –the founder of NOW (Net Org for Women)- said on this
regard. UNESCO took her suggestion & said that ‘acoso sexual’ is a kind of
violence against women. So “los pajeros del TSA” can be put in Court & send
to prison. ]]
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US-W
ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China,
RU, Iran search for State socialis+K-, D rest in limbo
It's our concern that "American service members not be put in
jeopardy, especially by a NATO
ally."
[[ Does Putin will trust the worse war-monger
in the US?.. I guess he may say: take your troops out of Syria and Asap, if you
really interested in US soldiers.. he may not say it.. but.. Meanwhile, you
can take ABC lessons on Geo-political chess-game.. CHESS not checkers. ]]
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Worst...
Putin Puppet... Ever...
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Ahora
ellos son la amenaza mundial.. para la jauría de
Trump
"the global liberal order is under threat"
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SPUTNIK
and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO ..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars
& danger of WW3
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Para evitar
diseminen la plaga –no fumigarlos- pero encerrarlos con una muralla de acero: T
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Mexican
Police Discover Third Drug Tunnel Near Arizona Border Pedira T 1 muralla subterranea para que no cruzen nuestros financistas
de las drogas a Mex?
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Airlines
of UAE, Oman, Bahrain Preparing to Resume Flights to Damascus Por que el imperialism Sirio funciona y el
nuestro NO, se pregunta T. Porque el de
ellos no es imperialism.. es solidaridad.. idiot
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Detras del mas machista siempre hay ‘el otro sexo’
decía una francesa y también un Americano:
Mencken HL: “In Defense of Women”
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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat Am search
f alternatives to neo-fascist regimes & terrorist imperial chaos
REBELION
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ECON Huele la
comida contaminada a libertad? Paul Krugman
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Venezuela y la solidaridad latinoamericana Cristóbal
León
Rusia ratificó respaldo a Gobierno venezolano MAE de RU
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RT EN ESPAÑOL
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GLOBAL
RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol
crisis that leads to more business-wars from US-NATO allies
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Evidence
of Mumia Abu-Jamal’s Innocence: Six “Lost” Mumia Case Boxes Found in District
Attorney Abandoned Furniture Closet By Prison Radio
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Secret
Russian-Kurdish Negotiations in Moscow: Turkey Has Defined Its Options and
Washington Is Trying to Gain Time By Elijah J. Magnier,
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PRESS
TV
Resume of Global News described
by Iranian observers..
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Programs US A
miserable defeat in Syria
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