JUN
28 18 SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social
+ Capit-compet in Econ
ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they
documented with graphics
Open these charts to convince yourself that US economy is
collapsing:
Source:
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... the economic impact of
violence to the global economy was $14.76 trillion in 2017 in
constant purchasing power parity (PPP) terms. This is roughly 12.4% of world gross domestic product (GDP),
or $1,988 per person.
Open this site:
And this
Most affected countries by GDP
Courtesy
of: Visual Capitalist
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"the
potential for such a vast amount of Fallen Angels at a time when Euro
high-yield bonds are shrinking would cause enormous ructions and indigestion in
the market."
See Chart:
See other Charts at
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SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-06-28/bank-america-spots-eu800-billion-cliff-fills-us-fear
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WHAT WOULD STEVE (COHEN) DO?
I always return to
Steve’s dictum on volatile days like today because it helps cut through the
noise and frame authentic market narratives.
Three examples, all
based on “Not making things harder than they have to
be”:
#1. Be
very careful about extrapolating moves that happen at the end of a
quarter. Today’s outsized sector losers
were Technology and Financials, the performance bookends of the last 3 months.
- Financials are so bad (-3.1% three month returns) than even long suffering Consumer Staples (-1.4% over the same period) look good in comparison.
- Tech (+7.0% three month returns) is fully half the S&P’s 3.6% return for the last 90 days.
#2. Price
leads fundamentals, not the other way around. The painful case study here: Financials and the shape of the
yield curve. Ask any good bank analyst and they will caution that the
difference between short term and long term rates is only one factor in the
sector’s fundamentals. Credit quality, loan growth, and regulatory issues
matter too.
But the ever-flattening Treasury
yield curve (32 bp today, a new +10 year low) is hurting Financials for a macro
– not micro – reason: it signals the real possibility of a recession in the
next 12-24 months. That, along with some quarter end pressure, pushed the
S&P Regional Bank Index lower by 1.9%. Even large cap Financials were
“better” than that in today’s session, down 1.2%.
#3. Sell
when you can, not when you have to. We’ve
been picking up on an “Everything old is new again” market narrative in recent
weeks that bears a mention, especially because we have not raised it with you
before.
The issue is market liquidity, and
May’s Italian bond market rout put it back on traders’ radar screens. Elections
there spooked sovereign debt investors, but since the ECB wasn’t in the market
at the time real “natural” bids were few and far between. Two-year yields went
from 27 basis points to 2.4% in 3 days. That simply should never happen.
The
bottom line from all this:
Simple
thoughts don’t always drive stock prices, but respecting their power is basic
intellectual risk management. Today’s market action means little, but
against the backdrop of rising recession fears it illuminates an important
macro worry. That skittishness then becomes fertile ground for other concerns,
like the proverbial butterfly of Italian bond markets causing a hurricane in US
equities. Yes, we still believe US equities will produce 5-8%
returns this year. But we respect the simplest arguments against that optimism.
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Money is once again pouring into
high-yielding, low quality asset-backed securities and collateralized loan
obligations, as investors are once again taking significant risks in the euphoria-driven chase for yield.
See table:
While some of the asset backed securities are for personal
loans, the bulk of investor interest is for high-yield securities in the
automobile sector, whose subprime segment has deteriorated
significantly in the past two years. Subprime auto ABS has less of a safety
net than it did prior to 2008, as insurance has fallen off since the last
financial crisis. However, this hasn’t stopped speculative investors with
euphoric outlooks from blindly taking more risk:
The popularity of subprime auto ABS --
especially the rise of B rated tranches -- is a concern because there are fewer
protections baked into the structures of the deals than before the financial
crisis, S&P Global Ratings analysts said in a note Monday.
Bonds rated BB typically were insured in the 1990s, featuring important
triggers to protect investors. But
insurance hasn’t been used as a form of credit enhancement in this market since
2008, so the latest batch of subprime deals -- many of which now go all the way
down to B ratings -- doesn’t have the same safety net, according to S&P.
See Chart:
We have repeatedly reported on the implosion of the subprime
auto market for the better part of the last year. In
May, we showedthe
rapid deterioration in the subprime auto
market, which now looks worse than prior to the last recession. Specifically,delinquent subprime auto-loans are now higher
than they were in the last recession, as shown in the chart below:
See Chart:
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See more charts at:
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"As for how U.S.
housing prices got so far out of whack compared to what had been
very long term, stable trends, it took a combination of fuel, oxidizer and a spark."
See Chart:
See more charts at
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SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-06-28/us-housing-unaffordability-remains-near-all-time-peak
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"...the danger of
using virtual currencies to influence the U.S. electoral process is
acuter now considering that there are state actors who are hostile
to the United States that are turning
to cryptocurrencies as a way of bypassing the financial system of the West"
See Chart:
….
See more charts at
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The latest
oil price spike may turn out to be a head-fake, because the economy is already
slowing. While the oil cartel can try to fix the supply of oil, it can’t really control the demand side,
which is dominated by the economic cycle.
See Chart:
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SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-06-28/ecri-spots-another-commodity-signal-signals-slowdown
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US
DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ y sist
duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s
full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambiarlo
Cars-jobs & national production was a bluff.. The FACT
is Trump = economic collapse
BMW, Jeep, and Mercedes-Benz have
also recognized the need to offer
armored cars in Mexico and other Latin American countries. In
particular, the BMW X5 has a
range of three different levels of protection...
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Concentration of money in the hands of the rich is a fact..
losing jobs is a fact.. explosive ineq
"The United Nations is at
it again with yet another report on how bad poverty is in the
United States - and how things
would improve greatly if the US raised taxes..."
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"Calls for civility are just a power play by those who feel
that
white supremacy is under threat..."
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"...past periods as stable as the last eight years didn’t have fun endings."
See Chart:
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SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-06-28/too-quiet-too-long-paulsen-warns-dont-expect-fun-ending
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Fast..fast that FIFA World Cup is going to finish and nuke-
blackmail will be ineffective
Does ‘America first’ really mean ‘Europe
first’ in the preparation for war with Russia?
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"...the media is
deliberately trying to stir things up with breathless headlines about how awful the “other” side is. And
it’sworking so well it
could lead us right to Civil War 2.0."
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“It seems like this is a database with pretty much every US citizen in it,”
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"SLEEP WITH ONE EYE OPEN..."
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US-WW ISSUES (World & War): M-East .. plus
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State
socialis+K- compet. D rest in limbo
OUR TACTIC: blame the others for my faults
President
Trump's trade spat with China isn't the only source of tension between the
world's two largest economies...
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We are being isolated.. because our faults
"There are two
countries that more than others show how the Western world order is undergoing
a profound change... Their geopolitical trajectory is increasingly
drifting away from Washington and moving
closer to China, Russia, India and Iran."
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"The situation will
only escalate, the way the nuclear arms race did. Fortunately, we
seem to have dodged that bullet… maybe.This
race could be much more deadly..."
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"EU28 leaders have agreed
on #euco conclusions incl. migration." - Donald Tusk
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"... more than simply providing cover for theFed’s controlled demolition of equities,
the trade war may also provide
cover for the controlled demolition of the dollar as multiple
foreign creditors and trading partners turn America’s greatest strength into its greatest weakness..."
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"Whatever is in store for
the newborn alliance, this is very bad for NATO, as this news is coming
just a couple of weeks before the summit
that may break up the allianceand consign the much-vaunted concept of
'Western unity' to its grave. "
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Access to clean water is now a luxury that most Venezuelans cannot
afford...
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
US inside GEO-POL n GEO-ECO ..News
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Russia
considers the decision to expand the mandate of the Organization for the
Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) illegitimate, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria
Zakharova said.
"As a result of political
manipulation, as well as, as has became known, the direct bribery
of a number of delegations and outright blackmail, the UK and other
states that are in favor of strengthening the chemical convention
have managed to squeeze out its odious draft decision, which has
conferred on the OPCW Technical Secretariat the powers to identify
those responsible for the use of chemical weapons
in Syria," Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova stated.
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Cuando
2 pasiones intensas se cruzan, toca dejar una y salir del contexto. James hizo
lo correcto. Si la dama burlo tu amor, ella es libre de hacerlo y de volver a
hacer lo que ya hizo. James no debe odiarla ni tampoco perdonarla. El amor no
se mendiga. La otra pasión –el futbol-existe y allí también hay cierto tipo de
amor que quedo resentido pero es recuperable. Ya vendrá quien reemplace la
pasión personal. No hay que forzar su llegada. Por lo pronto concéntrate en el
Futbol. Pon en esto toda tu energía. Lo otro pasara a la caja del olvido. Aléjate
del contexto de la dama y evita que invada el tuyo. Espero no hay hijo (a)
entre ambos pues eso agravaría el problema. Total todos tenemos que saltar 7 vallas
para triunfar en la vida, y tú ya saltaste varias. Este no es nada. Y si hay un
hijo (a): busca el “win-win solution”
para todos. OJO: la vida de un futbolista empieza a acabarse a los 35. Calcula
tu decisión y básala en tres columnas: razón, ética y fairness. Soy un PhD de
73 años y en futbol : un hincha tuyo. Te deseo lo mejor. Recibe un fuerte
abrazo de Hugo Adan. Un Prof visitante en el US.
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Esto
deja una ligera variante en los maches de los Octavos de Final, aunque no
altera el Prog
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Estoy
totalmente de acuerdo, aunque no es la 1ra vez que el ex -campeón de FIFA no
pasa el sig. Deberia darse un recordatorio a la
perseverancia.
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Los
paises del SUR latino lo necesitamos:
Brasil, ARG, Col, Peru y Chile
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RT SHOWS
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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Latino America looking for alternatives to neoliberalism to
break with Empire:
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--A árbol caído hacha con el: el imp no perdona..
usa mercenarios
-Ocurrió en Cuba pero el tiro
les salió por la culata: hay memo histor
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RT Infantino: "El Mundial está cambiando la
percepción sobre Rusia
https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/278767-infantino-mundial-cambiar-percepcion-rusia-occidente
El 'Pibe' pronostica cómo serán octavos de final
El 'Pibe' pronostica cómo serán octavos de final
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Conversando con Correa: "El paramilitar en Col: está
hoy peor que antes"
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Keiser Report "Millonarios,
¡bienvenidos!"
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INFORMATION CLEARING HOUSE
Deep on the US political crisis, their internal conflicts n
chances of WW3
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No hay
diferencia entre Dems y Reps: ambos son sirven
las mismas Fund financieras
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There’s
No Migration Crisis - The Crisis is Political Opportunism By Doug Saunders
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more
business-wars: its profiteers US-NATO
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DEMOCRACY NOW
US politics crisis: Trump captured by Deep state to
reproduce old cronyism without alter-plan
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PRESS TV
Global situation described by Iranian observers..
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