domingo, 10 de junio de 2018

JUN 10 18 SIT EC y POL



JUN 10 18  SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Econ


ZERO HEDGE  ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics


This is going to cause an evaporation of dollar liquidity
– making the markets extremely fragile.
See Chart:


The huge tax cuts and government spending requires a significant amount of new debt to be issued, all while the Fed’s tightening and unwinding their balance sheet via Quantitative Tightening (QT). 
This is going to cause an evaporation of dollar liquidity – making the markets extremely fragile.

Putting it simply – the soaring U.S. deficit requires an even greater amount dollars from foreigners to fund the U.S. Treasury. But if the Fed is shrinking their balance sheet, that means the bonds they’re selling to banks are sucking dollars out of the economy (the reverse of Quantitative Easing which was injecting dollars into the economy). This is creating a shortage of U.S. dollars – the world’s reserve currency – therefore affecting every global economy.
See Chart:
This type of Asymmetric development (slow start – fast finish) is an example of ‘Critical Mass’...  Putting it simply, Critical Mass in laymen term is ‘the last straw that breaks the camel’s back’.

It’s not like during those five years in the soil the bamboo seed wasn’t doing anything. It was taking its time deepening its roots and harnessing energy. Then once Critical Mass was reached – growth went parabolic.

Just like the markets over the last couple of years of Fed tightening – only because we don’t see what’s brewing underneath the surface doesn’t mean things aren’t happening.
See Chart:

Another thing learned from Complex Systems is that the larger the system is, the more energy it requires. And in over indebted economies – that means more dollars are required.

As government deficits soar and need constant funding, and bloated corporations are up to their necks in debt – they need even more dollars and even lower rates if they plan to not crack.
Unless the Fed reverses their tightening soon, things can get very ugly – and very fast.
[[ In short: there is no way to save the death of neoliberal Economy.. its corpse is already rotten  ]]
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Instead of worrying about inflation getting away from the Fed, the market is more worried about a short-term spike in inflation than a sustained long-term rise...
The three Ds (deflation, demographics, and debt) were on everyone’s lips. It made little sense to invest in inflation-protected securities when everyone knew there could be no inflation.
Well, guess what? That 1% 5-year breakeven rate has now risen to 2%.
See Chart:


Today the market is expecting the Federal Reserve to hit its 2% inflation target.
But the most interesting part of this higher repricing of inflation expectations? Instead of worrying about inflation getting away from the Fed, the market is more worried about a short-term spike in inflation than a sustained long-term rise.
To illustrate this, let’s look at the US 2-year and 30-year breakeven inflation rates.
See Chart:


The vast majority of the inflation expectation rise has been centered at the front end of the curve!
Here is another way to think about it. Instead of looking at breakeven inflation rates, let’s look at the yield curve of TIPS securities. This is “real yield” - the rate which an investor will earn after inflation.
See Chart:
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SPEAKING OF WILE E. COYOTE MOMENTS...

Last Thursday, speaking at the American Enterprise Institute, Bernanke echoed Bridgewater's biggest concernabout the sugar high facing the US economy for the next 18 months, saying that the stimulative impact from Trump's $1+ trillion fiscal stimulus "makes the Fed's job more difficult all around" because it's happening at a time of very low unemployment; it also means that the more supercharged the economy gets thanks to the fiscal stimulus, the greater the fall will be when the hangover hits. 

Stealing further from the Bridgewater note, Bernanke said that while the stimulus "is going to hit the economy in a big way this year and next year and then in 2020 Wile E. Coyote is going to go off the cliff, and it's going to look down" just when the US economy collides head on with what Bridgewater called "an unsustainable set of conditions."

However, as Global Macro Monitor notes, it's not just the economy that faces its Wile E. Coyote moment.

Stunning valuation metric of the U.S. stock market.
We used the Fed’s Flow of Funds for all domestic sectors for corporate equities in the numerator.   It is the same numerator as Doug Short’s but includes the equity market value of the financial sector:
The Buffet Indicator is not exactly  flashing a “buy the market it is cheap” signal.
See Chart:

Conclussion:
The sun came up today and “you wanna talk about tail risk?”  Come on, man!
Bernanke’s Wile E. Coyote moment is coming to the stock market.  THE QUESTION IS NOT IF BUT WHEN?  Our bet it will be certainly before Gentle Ben’s.
Rentals only, my long brothers and sisters.
Stay tuned,  Road-runner.
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"Financial disaster is quickly forgotten. There can be few fields of human endeavor in which history counts for so little as in the world of finance..."

The Ponzi Economy
Let’s return to the concept of a dysfunctional economy, where consumption is largely financed by accumulating debt liabilities to supplement inadequate wages and salaries, where government runs massive fiscal deficits, not only to support the income shortfalls of its citizens, but increasingly to serve and enhance corporate profits themselves, and where corporations enjoy lopsided profits with which they further leverage the economy by engaging in a massive swap of equity with debt.
This setup would be an interesting theoretical study in risk and disequilibrium were it not for the fact that this is actually the situation that presently exists in the U.S. economy.
The chart below shows wages and salaries as a share of GDP. This share reached a record low in late-2011, at the same point that U.S. corporate profits peaked as a share of GDP. That extreme was initially followed by a rebound, but the share has slipped again in the past couple of years.
See Chart:


Based on population and demographic factors, even if the unemployment rate remains at 3.8% in 2024, employment growth will contribute just 0.6% annually to GDP growth, leaving productivity growth (averaging well below 1% annually in the recovery since 2010) to contribute the balance. Without the cyclical contribution of a falling unemployment rate, real U.S. economic growth is likely to slow to well-below 2% annually, and even that assumes the economy will avoid a recession in the years ahead.
See Chart:


Wage inflation has been quite limited in the aftermath of job losses during the global financial crisis. Given a tightening labor market, an acceleration of wage gains will be good news for employees, but the delay has contributed to quite a few distortions in the interim.
One clear distortion is that profit margins have been higher and more resilient in this cycle than in prior economic cycles. Again, this elevation of profit margins is a mirror image of slack labor markets and weak growth in wages and salaries. The relationship isn’t perfect, as a result of quarter-to-quarter volatility, but the inverse relationship between the two is clear.
See Chart:
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See more charts at:
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"The steady performance of tech stocks has only reinforced the perception that they are defensive.... but with financial conditions likely to continue tightening, the moment of truth it could be at any moment, and without warning."
See Chart:
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[[ Los inversores dicen la verdad: el neoliberalism se fue a la merda.. WORSE  if we start WW3: Not only because we will be hit by Nukes –as never happen before- but because our internal division will create a barbaric violent chaos to destroy current Fed (we don’t need it). The path is secession and new type of REV, anarchical at the beginning , to then create a new regional States & Economy with Schools & Heath system  out of the hand of predatory Corp. New Coop -banking system will emerge to support small & middle size entrepreneurs across all regions of the ex-USA. Perhaps we may end adding one more “S” to mean:  UNITED SOCIALIST STATES OF AMERICA. One statement is clear now:  “caminante no hay camino.. se hace camino al andar. We must organize this Revolution Now!. Forget Elections: it lead to corruption (buy Elect by big Corp) and more chaos. We need an organized Rev.]]
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US  DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ y sist  duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s  full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambiarlo

Hillary’ resurrection? Impossible: Lazarous .. Levántate! .. y el cadáver.. siguió pudriéndose
[[ Sugerencia: Cambien los bufones de este circo .. dan pena, no risa.. or pack-up & a la merda! ]]

Much to President Trump's delight, Inspector General Michael Horowitz is preparing to release the long-awaited report on the James Comey-era FBI and its handling of the Clinton email probe.
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[[  There is not stub in well-known crooks of Las Vegas casino.. They played against their Nations ]]

"President Trump played that process in good faith. So, I ask you: He gets up in the airplane and leaves, and then Trudeau starts blasting him at a domestic news conference? I am sorry, that’s a betrayal. That’s a double cross.”
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Narcissit’ Hillary already destroyed the world by creating Islamic Terrorism paid by Saudis In Libya.. She also destroyed the Benghazi-US Embassy killing 4 American stuff.. a crime still un-punished
"The bigger the danger, the bigger the threat, the more I feel engaged to confront it..."
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US-WW ISSUES (World & War):  M-East .. plus
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State socialis+K- compet. D rest in limbo

THE OPEN MILITARY WAR WITH CHINA IS NEAR ..we already lost the trade war

A US fighter jet has crashed into the sea off the coast of the Japanese island of Okinawa, according to Reuters, citing Japanese media. The jet is believed to be an F-15.
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US reporters on China  can’t be trusted before checking China Sources. But, their covered  intentions can be guess by reading between lines

Chinese hackers stole a total of 614 gigabytes of plans for cutting-edge weapons relating to various undersea programs, as well as sensor data, submarine information about cryptographic systems, and an entire library of submarine electronic warfare data.
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There is a reason why gold is stored and why NATO allies plan to still them via WW3: opium dream

Ultimately, the value of gold is based on its tangibility...
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
US  inside  GEO-POL n GEO-ECO  ..News


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Noting that the US-British-French tripartite didn’t provide the public with evidence that an attack actually took place at Douma, Assad said that this wasn't the point. "The crux of the issue is that they need to undermine the Syrian government, as they needed to change and topple the Syrian government at the beginning of the events of the war in Syria. They keep failing, they keep telling lies, and they continue to play a war of attrition against our government," the president said.
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Uno le extorsionó la mano y el otro fue al cuello.. con amigos como estos .. para que enemigos
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Una vez que se destruya el ‘bunker’ donde se fabrican USD, + Dimona y bases aéreas.. adiós ISR. El renacer de ISR seria bajo limites set in 1948, con Estados FED deigual Repres a PAL y sin Jerus as Cap
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SHOWS RT

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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Latino America looking for alternatives to neoliberalism to break with Empire: 

V-SUR   - Gaza: balance de personas muertas y heridas crece,  Piotr Smolar
                - Nicaragua: Situación a fecha del 5 y 6 de junio   Oscar R Vargas
                - FEM Chile: Crítica sistémica desde el Sur  Carolina Olmedo
                -LRC: Una organización Revol y democrática  Chato Galante
                - Teoría crítica: Walter Benjamin, marxista-libertario  Michel Löwy
                - Irak: Búsqueda a pasar la página de invasión americana Zahra Ali
                - Debates : Las teorías marxistas del imperialismo  Claude Serfati
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                Sacrifica a su hija de 4 años para "agradar a Dios"  a esto llaman fe los idiotas religiosos
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INFORMATION CLEARING HOUSE
Deep on the US political crisis, their internal conflicts n chances of WW3


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Ten Years On, Putin Told Them So  By F Cunningham the "G6" without the US   Continue
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V Putin - Annual ‘Direct Line’ Q&A in Moscow  Video and transcript Will there be a World War 3?
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more business-wars:  its profiteers US-NATO


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PRESS TV
Global situation described by Iranian observers..


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The debate:  G7 Showdown
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