MAY 16 18 SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social
+ Capit-compet in Econ
ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they
documented with graphics
US economic situation today:
Interest rates and stocks are going... to heaven?
Stocks opened confidently (after for
once trading sideways overnight), then slipped into the European close (Italian
headlines) before ramping into the last hour when Navarro headlines spooked
stocks and bonds...
See Chart:
The post-Navarro weakness in stocks
took all but Small Caps back into the red for the week...
See Chart
Russell 2000 broke to a new record
high...
See Chart:
On the back of a major short squeeze
once again...
See Chart:
Big Bank totally unstable.. stocks were mixed after ramping on the
European close (not helped by Italian bank weakness), they slid into the close
after Navarro headlines...
See Chart:
Small bank stocks underperformed as
Small Caps soared to record highs...
See Chart:
TSLA bonds pushed lower in price
once again but the stock managed gains on the back of Soros buying converts in
Q1...
See Chart:
The long-end of the US Breakevens
curve has now inverted...
See Chart:
The Dollar ended the day modestly
lower, also trading in a very narrow range on the day - and unable to make a
higher high...
See Chart:
Finally consider that Small Caps are
being touted as domestically focused - amid fears of global trade wars etc... -
but US domestic economic data is dismal...
See Chart:
….
SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-05-16/dollar-drops-yields-pop-small-caps-squeeze-new-record-high
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Forget
MAGA, it's a MANA market in
2018...
See Chart:
So the message from 2018's markets
is simple - diversification is for losers, buy what's working, trend is your
friend, it's a no-brainer...
See Chart:
….
SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-05-16/these-4-stocks-account-over-two-thirds-2018s-sp-return
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"...
the leverage has gone from a 3% “why bother” level to a stunning 139%. If the last five years are a reasonable
representation of the future, 143%/96%/-139% is the new 60%/40%."
See Chart:
….
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History talks:
"The imprint of
recent events falsely forms the foundation of everything that will
occur in the present and future ..."
It’s a
moment of truth
Too many investors possess a hook-up mentality with stocks.
Holding periods are at historic lows. According to the New York Stock Exchange’s extensive database, the
average holding period for stocks in 1960 was 8 years, 4 months.
As of
December 2016, it was 8.3 months.
Last year’s unprecedented stock market performance for the
S&P 500 was the worst event for investor psyche.
I’ll explain.
No doubt, it was a magical year. The market closed higher
every month (first time in history). The Sharpe Ratio, or returns on the S&P relative to the risk-free
(Treasury Bills) and volatility was 3.7. Since
volatility was non-existent last year, risk-adjusted returns for the market were
among the best I ever lived through; at least the highest in over 50 years.
According to Crestmont Research, volatility for the S&P
500 tends to average near 15%. However, volatile is well, volatile. Most periods generally fall within a band of 10% to 20%
volatility with pockets of unusually high and low periods.
See Chart:
Recency Bias
Recency bias or “the
imprint,” as I call it, is a cognitive affliction that convinces me
the trade I made last Thursday should work like it did when I placed a trade on
a Thursday in 2017 when the highway was glazed smooth for max-market
performance velocity. This cognitive hiccup deep in my brain makes me
predisposed to recall and be seduced by incidents I’ve observed in the recent
past.
The
imprint of recent events falsely forms the foundation of everything that will
occur in the present and future (at
least in my head). Recency
bias is a mental master and we are slaves to it. It’s human. It’s the habit we
can’t break (hey, it works for
me). In my opinion, recency bias is what
separates traders from long-term owners of risk assets.
Unfortunately,
rules do not prevent market losses. Rules are there to manage risk in long-term
portfolio allocations.
Losses are to be minimized but if you’re in the stock market you’re
gonna experience losses. They are inevitable. It’s what you do (or don’t do),
in the face of those losses that define you. And if you’re making those
decisions based on imprinting or Silly Putty thinking, you are not cognitively
equipped to own stocks.
Conclusion
If it were
true that stocks are less risky in the long run, it should portend to a lower
cost to insure against that risk the longer the holding period. The opposite is
true. Dr. Bodie uses modern option pricing methodology i.e., put options to
validate the truth.
Using a simplified form of the Black-Scholes formula, he
outlines how the cost of insurance rises with time. For a one-year horizon, the
cost is 8% of the investment. For a 10-year horizon it is 25%, for a 50-year
time frame, the cost is 52%.
As the length of horizon increases without limit, the cost
of insuring against loss approaches 100% of the investment. The longer you hold
stocks the greater a chance of encountering tail risk. That’s the bottom line
(or your bottom is eventually on the line).
Short-term,
emotions can destroy portfolios; long term, it’s the ever-present possibility
of tail risks or “BLACK SWANS.” I know. Tail risks like
market bubbles and financial crises don’t come along often. However, only one
is required to blow financial plans out of the water.
….
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US
DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ y sist
duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s
full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambiarlo
CA the first candidate for secession
Sexually
transmitted disease (STD) cases have reached record-high numbers in California... as the 'sharing'
economy goes viral.
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"Mr Cohen sought reimbursement
of those expenses and Mr. Trump fully reimbursed Mr. Cohen in 2017. The category of the value would be $100,001 -
$250,000 and the interest rate would be zero."
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"Any wonder we have so many'deplorables'
ready to vote populist?"
The
current growth cycle has been the second longest on record:
See Chart:
But it has been much
shallower than the previous cycles:
"real GDP growth in the current expansion lags the other three
expansions - by a lot. As of the first quarter of 2018, real GDP has expanded
by 21% since the beginning of the current expansion; this is far lower than the
36% compound growth we saw at this point in the 1991‑2001 expansion. The chart
also shows that the growth path for the longest expansions has continued to
shift lower over time; the 1961‑1969 expansion saw real GDP grow by 52% by the
end of its ninth year, while the economy had grown by just 38% by the end of
year eight of the 1982‑1990 expansion."
See Chart:
And here's
a summary of why loading risks of recession onto households is not such a great
idea:
"Real consumption has grown by 23% since the summer of 2009,
compared to growth rates of 41% and 50% at the same point in the expansions of
1991‑2001 and 1961‑1969, respectively. The reluctance of consumers to spend in
this expansion is not surprising when you consider how much of the brunt of the
last recession was borne by this group."
Households’
net worth collapse in the GFC has been more dramatic and the recovery from the
crisis has been less pronounced than in the previous cycles:
SEE Chart:
….
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"We labor today under the weight
of countless tyrannies, large and small,carried out in the name of the
national good by an elite class of
government officials who are largely insulated from the ill effects of their
actions,and inflicted on an overtaxed, overregulated, and
underrepresented populace."
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"We’re not far removed
from being extras in our own lives, with all significant decisions taken not by
us, but for us. America’s Founding Fathers are turning in their
graves as we speak.They would have
understood the importance of protecting Julian Assange."
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"They are taking over
completely, consolidating their power, and eliminating
our wealth and personal freedoms. And that hasn’t slowed with the election of Trump. "
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Trump is fostering the secession of Chicago
“Time is not your friend when
your liabilities are compounding and your revenues are not...”
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Everything was a farce .. to keep distracted .. while they
design WW#
"This
case is essentially over," Giuliani said.
"They're just in denial."
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US-WW ISSUES (World & War): M-East .. plus
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State
socialis+K- compet. D rest in limbo
"...based on the existing data few people
in Iran are cryptocurrencies' customer and more than 2.5 billion dollars
has been sent out of the country for buying digital currencies,"
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Back to the art of
transition to PEACE.. NO to blackmails at all.. talks to peace demand nice
dialogue
"If the U.S. is trying to drive us into a corner to force our
unilateral nuclear abandonment, we will no longer be interested in such
dialogue.
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GOLD UP.. DOLLAR DOWN. .. a árbol caído hacha con él.. Chances of winning this war?.. NONE.. War is
a zero sum game were the queen & the king are the targets.. US sanctions
affect pawns. Chi goes to..
While India saw a
12% decrease in demand for gold jewelry in Q1 2018,Chinese demand
grew 7%, and Shanghai Gold Exchange saw April’s demand
for gold up 28% from 2017.
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Macroprudential
tightening policies in China currently will render economic growth in 2Q18, but
more importantly 2H18, dismal; we believe this will spread to emerging markets,
rendering the “global coordinated growth” bulls out of sync with reality
QUICK TAKE: In
short, our thesis is that city-level and regional macroprudential tightening
policies in China currently will render economic growth in 2Q18, but more
importantly 2H18, dismal; we believe this will spread to emerging markets,
rendering the “global coordinated growth” bulls out of sync with reality. This,
we believe, in turn, will weigh on metals prices, pushing many of the commodity
pundits (i.e., Jeffery Gundlach) to reassess their bullishness. As this happens, we expect steel/bulk exports out of
China to rise (as profitability domestically falls with weakening domestic
demand) pushing global bulk commodities prices lower.
See Chart:
Source:
Peoples' Bank of China (PBOC), Vertical Group.
Exhibit 2:
It Appears Emerging Markets are no Longer “Feeling the China Love”
See chart:
GROWTH INTERNALS. As
detailed below, while Y/Y industrial production growth edged higher to +6.9% in
April 2018 (from +6.8% in March 2018), the all-importantFixed Asset Investment metric in China hit
lows not seen in nearly two decades (at +7.0% Y/Y for April 2018 vs. +7.5% Y/Y
in March 2018), while retail sales also dipped lower in the month of
April at +9.4% Y/Y (vs. +10.1% Y/Y in March 2018). At risk of stating the
obvious, at the margin, this suggests to us that China’s key growth internals
are indeed slowing.
Exhibit 3:
Growth Internals - China (FAI, Industrial Production, & Retail Sales)
See Chart:
CONSTRUCTION
ACTIVITY. Taking a closer look under the hood, we notice real
estate floor area sales slowed incrementally in April 2018 up just +1.3% YTD
(vs. +3.6% YTD Y/Y in March 2018), and fell a concerning -4.1% Y/Y for the
month of April 2018.
Exhibit 4:
China Residential + Commercial + Office Space Sold
See chart:
CONCLUSION: China will likely continue to slow, yet
it seems the PBoC has a good handle on its targeted slowdown, making the need
to rush in with “bazooka” stimulus unnecessary right now (in our view, that
is). Will it happen? Based on history, of course it will (as it always does). But are we there yet? We think not.Translation… more pain to come before Xi Jinping “rides to the rescue of
bulk commodity bulls”, meaning as the summer slow-down sets in, steel/iron-ore
prices likely have acute downside risk (this is not Consensus at the moment –see
Jeffery Gundlach’s comments from the Sohn conference several weeks ago).
….
..
[[ CHI won’t respond this “nice dystopia”.. IF
US wants to smoke a pipe of opium dreams, buen viaje]]
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"...how else can we
explain their tendencies and behaviors? If organized annihilation was an
intrinsic value of humanity then we would have died out long ago. The
globalists are not human, though. They are something opposite, and if you do not understand this core truth,
they can be bewildering and terrifying."
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
US inside GEO-POL n GEO-ECO ..News
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A bill recently
reintroduced on Capitol Hill seeks to increase US defense spending by $1.5
billion per year over the next five years to support Taiwan’s defense posture
toward China. PURPOSE: to foster “a free and
open Indo-Pacific region”.
Furthermore, the bill "expresses
support for regular arms sales to Taiwan," the summary
from Gardner's office says. About $150 million annually would be spent
"for democracy, rule of law and civil society support, including $10
million annually for freedom of information efforts in North
Korea."
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RELATED
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Terrorist blackmail:
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RT SHOWS
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Can you make a title with the issue or topic you dial with?
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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Latino America looking for alternatives to neoliberalism to
break with Empire:
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INFORMATION CLEARING HOUSE
Deep on the US political crisis, their internal conflicts n
chances of WW3
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To Armageddon: Trump & Netanyahu Bringing
Us Closer To End Of Times By George Galloway
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North Korea May Cancel Summit Over Bolton's
'Absurd' Demands By Moon Of Alabama
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EU Chief Lashes Out at Trump Amid New Push to
Save Iran Deal By Lorne Cook and R Casert
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more
business-wars: its profiteers US-NATO
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DEMOCRACY NOW
US politics crisis: Trump captured by Deep state to
reproduce old cronyism without alter-plan
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PRESS TV
Global situation described by Iranian observers..
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