viernes, 31 de marzo de 2017

MAR 31 17 SIT EC y POL



MAR 31 17 SIT EC y POL
ND denuncia debacle of neoliberal Globaliz y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Econ


ZERO HEDGE  ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics



Since the election, talking heads have crowed about improving economic data (macro- and micro-). However, what they have failed to mention is all of the improvements have been in 'soft' survey and sentiment data, not 'hard' economic figures; and now, judging from the plunge in Goldman Sachs Analyst Index, soft data is starting to lose faith rapidly.
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Another dataset, another head-scratching disparity between ostensibly fulsome confidence and evidently sluggish activityWhile markets get whipsawed reacting to divergent hard and soft data points, the question that traders need to ask is whether this gap makes any sense.
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The global recession explained

"Go long gold in anticipation of potential manias, panics or crashes."

As Hartnett explains, the catalyst for bull in equity and credit markets since 2009 was the "revolutionary monetary policy of central banks" who, since Lehman, "have cut rates 679 times and bought $14.2tn of financial assets." And, once again, he warns that this central bank “liquidity supernova” is coming to an end, as is "the period of excess returns in equities and corporate bonds, as is the period of suppressed volatility."


Demonstrating how insane just the past year has been in markets, Hartnett reminds us that just eight months ago belief in debt deflation & secular stagnation induced lowest interest rates in 5000 years.
  • On July 11th 2016 Swiss government could have issued 50- year debt out to 2076 at a negative yield (of -0.035%)…
  • …and in 1989 the Imperial Palace in Tokyo worth more than all real estate in California…
  • …and in March’2000 the market cap of Yahoo was 25X greater than market cap of Chinese equity market (MSCI)…
  • …and in 2008 the combined assets of Iceland’s three biggest banks were 14 times the size of the nation’s GDP…
  • …all manias, all over now.


The period of great confusion is slowly coming to an end: what happens next is split into two phases - the famous "Icarus Trade" popularized by Hartnett several months ago, which the BOFA strategist believes will send the S&P above 2,500 and the yield on the 30Y to 3.5%, before the next "Great Fall" trade emerges.

First, a look at the near-term forecast:
We believe we are closer to the highs than lows in risk markets. But tops are a process; lows are a moment. The hubris, monetary tightening and macro peak that normally ends a strong bull trend feels H2 not Q2. So our base case unchanged heading into spring.

For those who wish to trade this last, marketwide blow-off top, Hartnett has several "favorite Q2 trades": the US$, sterling, oil and banks.

The risk to our bullish Q2 call is the price action of 3C’s (China, commodities, credit) deteriorates and signals synchronized global Profit top, on back of PBoC tightening. Commodity prices must rise to maintain equity outperformance versus bonds: BofAML forecast oil @ $57/b in Q2. EPS resilience required for stocks to continue to outperform bonds.

Hartnett also presents "a nice Icarus stat": "should the S&P500 exceed 2540 in conjunction with a 3% yield on the 10-year Treasury bond then US stocks will reach an all-time high versus US bonds, exceeding the prior tech bubble peak reached in March 2000"


Still, all great - if abnormal and fake - bull markets and manias come to an end eventually, and Hartnett warns that what follows the final, Q2 "Icarus" rally will be far less enjoyable, because that's when the infamous "great fall" is set to take place.

Great Fall” potentially comes in H2 as hubris, synchronized monetary tightening, EPS peak coincide; buy long-dated puts in anticipation; we believe best time to sell would likely be after a pop induced by a US tax reform bill (March Fund Managers Survey showed only 10% of institutions expect US tax reform passed before summer recess).

And yes, the Fed will likely try to step in again with more rate cuts to prevent a crash, although this time it won't work at least according to Hartnett, because after the "Great Fall" comes the Long View, which Bank of America describes simply as: Manias, Panics, Crashes

Humiliation remains one of the best assets to buy.
In Feb 2009 the 10-year rolling return from US large-cap stocks humiliatingly dropped to -3.4%, lowest since 1930s.
Since then S&P 500 up from 676 to 2368; now second longest bull ever (longest ever if runs past August 22nd 2018), and becomes 3rd largest ever at 2467.


His conclusion is two fold.

On one hand, "our Longest Pictures argue for a treacherous period of potential manias, panics or crashes as policy makers try to normalize policy."

And this is how to trade it:
  • The beneficiaries of rising inflation and rates are many.
The long-run price relative of real assets (real estate, commodities, and collectibles) to financial assets (stocks and bonds) is at its lowest level since 1926.
Bull markets in real assets have coincided with war and fiscal stimulus programs in 1940s, rise of inflation in 1960s and 1970s, and 9/11 & China accession to WTO in the early years of this century.
Higher inflation and interest rates are consistent with real assets outperforming financial assets: since 1970, relative performance of real assets 83% correlated with inflation.


His best trade recommendation?
"Buy gold."
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It was a week when the world was supposed to come to an end, notes Bloomberg's Richard Breslow, but then it didn’t... However, next week’s big events include a meeting between the Chinese and American presidents. Don’t underestimate the importance of it or the market interest it will garner.
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We are perfectly primed for the greatest financial disaster in American history, and yet very few people are sounding the alarm...
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We want growth by default, we want growth for growth’s sake, without caring much where it will lead us. Maybe we think unconsciously that as long as we can secure growth, we can figure out what to do with it later. But it doesn’t work that way...
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"The warning signs are there for anyone willing to see, and they are flashing red. Even cursory research into the numbers underlying our system will tell you that we’re on an unsustainable financial path. It’s simple math. And yet the system has proven far more durable than most people thought... The only reasonable explanation I can think of, is that the system is being held up by wishful thinking and willful ignorance."
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“The United States have developed a new weapon that destroys people but it leaves buildings standing. It’s called the stock market...”

Here the suggested reading:

Trump/Fed/Economy
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Markets
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Research / Interesting Reads
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Our assessment has not changed in the past week, and already we are beginning to discussions of border wall construction being postponed, along with infrastructure spending, and tax cuts being whittled down to just 28% for corporations vs. 15-20%. 

The last point is the most important given that current valuations in the market are currently being supported by the notion that tax cuts will lead to a profits expansion. The issue, however, remains that while profits may expand from paying lower taxes, and could be much less than currently hoped for, top line revenue growth still remains a missing ingredient as shown in the chart below


While anything is certainly possible, there is the simple issue that economic cycles do NOT last forever. With wage growth still stagnant, debt levels rising and inflation coming from all the wrong areas (health care, rent & gasoline), the risk of disappointment in the “hope” trade is very high.

Of course, you combine the risk of a “fiscal policy” error with the Fed on a “monetary policy tightening” cycle and you have all the ingredients for a bad outcome.
But then again, maybe this time will indeed “be different.”
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RBC's head of cross asset strategy Charlie McElligott dons his full wonksh equity analyst hat today, exposing "The April Effect," and the specific risk of "nasty double whammy" of levered long-short unwinds should momentum stall.
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POLITICS
La seudo democ USA y su sistema duopolico es obsoleto por fraudulento y corrupto


In just a few moments, Trump is set to sign a pair of executive orders which will initiate a 'yuge' review of America's trade deficits and look to impose restrictions on countries that perpetually "cheat on trade."
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If you’re one of the countless Americans who was distraught to learn of the revelations made by former National Security Agency (NSA) contractor Edward Snowden, the mere idea that there might be yet another agency out there - perhaps just as powerful and much more intrusive -  should give you goosebumps.
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"Unmasking is not unprecedented, but unmasking for political purposes ... specifically of Trump transition team members ... is highly suspect and questionable. Opposition by some in the intelligence agencies who were very connected to the Obama and Clinton teams was strong. After Trump was elected, they decided they were going to ruin his presidency by picking them off one by one."
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WORLD ISSUES and ME
Depression is on at global level. China, RU, Iran, n LA search to mix of State socialis+K- compet



It was China, whose gargantuan credit expansion, monetary easing and "Shanghai Accord" in early 2016 unleashed the global reflationary wave which central banks are currently mistaking for "growth." It is only appropriate that China will be the catalyst that ends it.
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Price manipulation is not a coincidence.. its is a planned act by US NATO.. to put down VEN


For the 11th week in a row, the number of US oil rigs rose (up 10 to 662 - the highest since September 2015). And worse still, there are thousands of drilled shale wells are sitting idle, unfracked and uncompleted. That supply sitting on the sidelines will put downward pressure on any new oil price rally... which may explain why the Saudis have just cut prices once again.
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As relations between the Kremlin and the White House deteriorate with every passing day before Trump has even met with Putin, accusations that Trump is a puppet of the Kremlin remain the topic du jour across the US media.
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It doesn’t make sense to put wall in the border.. 1st in breaking it .. the US investors
"When you dissect the worst-case scenarios, it still makes sense to go forward with their business plans.  It’s a competitive world." [Case: planta de motores Ford in Chihuahua ]
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DEMOCRACY NOW
US politics crisis: Deep state captured Trump to reproduce old cronyism with no clear plan


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GLOBAL RESEARCH
La crisis politica mundial leads to more business-war: US-NATO under screen


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INFORMATION CLEARING HOUSE
Deep on the US political crisis; their internal conflicts and intention of war


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John Pilger: Disastrous Consequences if US Proceeds with “Policy of Provocation”   Video  The coming war on China: .. prospect of nuclear war is no longer unthinkable
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The Russia Hacking Fiasco: No Evidence Required   By Mike Whitney  And yet some people believe this baloney.  The intention: create a “reason” for first strike. ..RU in high alert n ready to respond.
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Latest WikiLeaks Shows How the CIA Hides the Origins of its Hacking Attacks and 'Disguise them as Russian or Chinese Activity'   By Mail Online  CIA disguise its own hacking attacks and point the finger at Russia, China, North Korea and Iran
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What Is Really Happening in Venezuela?  By Jorge Martin  Sided view against Maduro
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The Unbelievers:  By Richard Dawkins & Lawrence Krauss  These scientists speak publicly about the importance of science and reason in the modern world.
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COUNTER PUNCH
Though “academicistic” (no pre-define thesis), it provides some good arts on Econ n Politics


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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
The nasty business of US-NATO global wars uncovered .. pro RU view


White House: US 'Must Accept' Political Reality That Assad is Syria's President   https://sputniknews.com/world/201703311052175536-white-house-political-reality-assad/
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Iran's Defense Minister Urges US to Stop Harassing Mideast States  https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/201704011052179780-iran-us-stop-harassing-mideast-states/
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Moscow Welcomes Fitch rating to Keep Russia's IDRs at Investment Level  https://sputniknews.com/russia/201703311052179478-russia-fitch-stable-outlook/

RELATED
Moody's Upgrade of Russia's Rating Outlook Reflects 'Improvement in Economy' https://sputniknews.com/business/201702181050820341-moodys-russia-rating/
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Syrian Crisis Remains 'Acute Humanitarian Emergency' - IFRC Head  https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/201704011052179715-syrian-crisis-acute-humanitarian-emergency/
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'Senate Looking in the Wrong Place' as FBI Influenced US Election – Kucinich  https://sputniknews.com/politics/201703311052176006-us-senate-election-tempering-interview-dennis-kucinich/
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North Korea Implores South Koreans to Join ‘Anti-War’ Campaign Against US   https://sputniknews.com/politics/201703311052177241-dprk-sends-south-korea-letter/ 

RELATED
US Deploys F-35s to South Korea For Joint Drills in Show of Force Against North   https://sputniknews.com/military/201703301052139362-jets-sent-to-south-korea/
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New Images of 9/11 Attack on Pentagon Revealed to Public (PHOTOS)   https://sputniknews.com/news/201703311052177204-pentagon-terrorist-attack-photos-revealed/
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RT SHOWS
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CrossTalk   Who rules?  Women in my country .. we have to give her our salary to run fam-business
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WASHINGTON BLOG
Flash points on US politics: internal contradict.. Hugh Smith good articles reproduced


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Posted on March 31, 2017 by Charles Hugh Smith   Here only extracts

I presented this chart of rising wealth inequality a number of times over the past year. Do you notice something peculiar about the inflection points in the 1980s?


So what happened between 1978 and 1986? The first phase of the financialization of the U.S. economy.
What is financialization? In a financialized economy, speculating with highly leveraged debt and exotic financial instruments is far more profitable than producing goods and services.

Financialization hollows out the productive assets of an economy by incentivizing leverage, debt, opacity, speculation, financial fraud, collusion and the perfection of crony capitalism, i.e. financial Elites’ ownership of the government’s regulatory and legislative bodies.

Here is another less pungent description via Wikipedia: “Financial leverage overrides capital (equity) and financial markets dominate traditional industrial economy and agricultural economics.”
Keep Reading
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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
La crisis pol y Ec en Latino America:  leftist view on alternatives


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El Tribunal Supremo de Justicia hizo su parte y si hay pueblo que apoya desacato la FA must act
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                ¿Pueden suicidarse los pueblos?   Atilio A. Boron
El pueblo de EC representa la dignidad Latina. Aun si fallo Correa lo peor es el suicidio. El candidato del imperio Lasso solo traerá hambre y destrucción. No creo que Ec vote por el
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Vigilancia en Estados Unidos  Invasión y privatización del espacio público F L Castro
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Brasil Desigualdad de género y raza  Negros y mujeres los más golpeados por el desempleo RD
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J Miras: Crítica del republicanismo liberal  “Toda sociedad genera vida inherente al orden que la organiza"  Salvador López
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“Exalto los valores puros de mi pueblo, y a su lado voy a vivir como a morir"  Miguel Hernández, entre el amor y el compromiso
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MX-SPA   La Izquierda y la Malinche  [SOBRE traidores y traidoras ]
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BRA  Pdte enfrenta serias acusaciones  Temer contra las cuerdas  Dario Pignotti
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COL  Manzanas podridas o corrupción sistémica?  Jorge Enrique Robledo
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                En situac de crisis como esta .. hay que cerrar Embajada USA y frenar su intervenc
                Perú, Venezuela   La tormenta venezolana   Gustavo Espinoza
                Chile, Venezuela  La historia se repite Ojala no ahora  Hugo Farías
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PRESS TV
Global situation described quickly  by Iranian observers.. often title distorted by ISR-Mosad


UK to open own version of Guantanamo  They enjoy torturing prisoners
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US must accept 'political reality' in Syria  regarding Assad: White House
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This warmonger has to be rid-off by T. .. The hidden target is China .. N-K is not the prob.
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VEN Attorney General raps violation of constitution  by rightist parliamentarian coup
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One in three voters gives ‘F’ to Trump one in two would be more accurate
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UN chief alarmed by new Israeli  approval of new settlement
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Scotland makes formal request for  independence referendum
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Four countries at high risk of famine: FSIN  Nigeria, Somalia, S-Sudan and Yemen
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US to NATO allies: Step up contributions  Tillerson. NATO must be dissolved .. it’s a waste of maney
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Saudi general escapes citizen’s arrest in UK: Video  Over war crimes in Yemen. Both US-UK  involved
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