MAR 2 17
SIT EC y POL
ZERO HEDGE. ECONOMICS
Initial
jobless claims plunged 19k last week to 223k. This is now the lowest level of
initial jobless claims since March 1973, and is very close to the lowest levels
since 1969.
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The best argument for avoiding US stocks is
simple: valuation. Using the Shiller PE Ratio (price divided by a 10 year
lookback at earnings), domestic equities trade for 29.9x earnings versus a long
run average of 16.7x. The last time they were this expensive was early
2002, or 15 years ago.
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As Lael Brainard piled on The Fed's sudden utter hawkishness, following
Dudley, Harker, Kaplan, and Williams, we noticed a common thread behind the
need to hike rates in March - each implicitly or
explicitly noted America's
"surprisingly strong economy." This led to a stunning WTF moment...
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The relentless risk rally which took the Dow
above 21,000 and the S&P over 2,400, has taken a breather overnight, with
S&P futures modestly lower tracking European stocks, while Asian stocks
advanced on US momentum; late Wednesday comments
by a unexpectedly hawkish Lael Braniard has pushed
the dollar higher, pressuring oil lower.
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It's not the economy, stupid; it's the market's
"initial conditions" that
matter...
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The Fed
jawboning has gone well... too well. Dudley, Harker, Kaplan, Williams, and Brainard have managed to push the
market-implied probability of a March rate hike from
around 20% to 90% in a week. The Fed
is now cornered...
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Unfortunately,
it is significantly overvalued given the likely scale of its long-term
opportunity and the risks associated with executing against that opportunity. Significant
ongoing dilution from share-based compensation will likely represent an
additional negative consideration for the stock. We value Snap at $10 per share
on a YE2017 basis. As the stock priced well above this level in its IPO, we rate its shares Sell.
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RELATED:
Having
priced at $17, Snap Inc. opened for trading at $24, valuing the company over
$34 billion - almost three times the size of Twitter, bigger than both HP and
CBS, and almost as big as Ebay.
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If yesterday's exuberant spike
in stocks (surging Dow above 21,000), on a day when economic growth
expectations were crushed, was not enough to scare you about the ebulient
animal spirits in the markets, then perhaps this will. The
largest S&P 500 ETF (SPY) was inflows of $8.2bn - the biggest daily inflow
since Dec 2014 (and second largest in 6 years).
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The gap between people's perceptions of reality (as judged by consumer and business surveys of
confidence) and reality (as judged by fundamental economic data)
has never been higher than it is today. The problem with peak 'animal spirits' like
this is... they always end badly.
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After Tuesday night, nobody should have any more doubt that the U.S.
economy has been in the process of collapsing... He detailed many of
the most important problems that our nation is
facing, and he explained his prescription for addressing those
problems.
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"After a long and difficult
eight-year legal process, the Court's
decision to approve the liquidation recognizes the companies' financial difficulties are too great to be
remedied..."
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... we recommend buying S&P 500 puts for
the second half of 2017.
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Central banks and international financial institutions represent? -
?and work for? - ?creditors first and people second. That is why they can be serially wrong with so little direct consequence.
This is the backdrop against which we are invited to trust
the banking system with central bank-issued digital currency.
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POLITICS
"As the neoconservatives pull nuclear Armageddon out of the grave that
Reagan and Gorbachev put it in, the American left demands the impeachment of the
president whose goal was better relations with Russia."
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"I hate to break it to you, but Donald Trump isn’t going to make America
great again. He
doesn’t have the insight or courage to stand up to the financial elite... Democrats are even worse - the
party is so worthless, it doesn’t even deserve
to exist anymore...it should be abundantly clear by now that no one is
coming to save us, and no one will be making America great again for us. We need to focus on making
ourselves great."
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WORLD ISSUES and ME
For the first time ever (based on Bloomberg
data), Bitcoin is trading at
parity with an ounce of gold.
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At exactly 1130ET (as Europe closed), someone
decided to unload over $2 billion
notional of silver into the futures pits...
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European lawmakers voted to force Americans to
apply for visas when traveling to Europe in response to Washington refusing to
allow all Europeans to travel to the States visa-free. The vote by show
of hands is the latest in the ongoing “visa war” between Brussels and the US
capital.
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
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INFORMATION CLEARING HOUSE
Syria - Erdogan's Lost Bet - Trump Likely To
Follow A Cautious Strategy By
Moon Of Alabama
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U.S. Backed Siege of Mosul Shows How
Hypocritical Media Manipulates Us By Darius
Shahtahmasebi
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COUNTER PUNCH
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Pepe Escobar Letter
from Tehran: Trump ‘the Bazaari’
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Sam Husseini Behind
the Liberal Embrace of Trump
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Binoy Kampmark Trump’s
Military Industrial Complex
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
Several EU Countries Interested in 'Reducing or Lifting' Anti-Russia Sanctions https://sputniknews.com/europe/201703031051217624-eu-countries-less-anti-russia-sanctions/
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Backstage at the Trump vs. Deep State Cage Match https://sputniknews.com/columnists/201702281051113778-backstage-trump-deep-state-cage-match/
RELATED
Here's How the Trump Presidency Will Play Out https://sputniknews.com/columnists/201701191049765550-how-trump-presidency-will-play-out/
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RT SHOWS
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WASHINGTON BLOG
The core narrative of politics
everywhere is progress, i.e. “moving forward.” If progress isn’t being made, politicos and the
system are failing.
In the past,
“progressive” movements sought to advance both social and economic
opportunities for marginalized groups.
For a variety of
reasons, social progress has been decoupled from economic progress.
In broadly disintegrative eras
such as the present, the stagnation of economic opportunity is masked by
redefining progress in purely social terms: progress is defined as the social advance of a
marginalized populace into the mainstream.
When the marginalized populace is comprised of many millions
of individuals, social progress and economic progress are mutually reinforcing
dynamics: opportunities for social advancement in the mainstream created
economic opportunities, and vice versa.
Now that social/economic progress
has lifted the major marginalized populaces–ethnic and religious minorities,
gays–substantially into the mainstream, those remaining marginalized
populaces are modest in size. Estimates of the trans-gender populace, for
example, are generally less than 1% of the total population.
The marginalized groups’ advances that are markers for
“proof of progress” have decoupled from economic advances. Few if any
social-justice promoters of trans-gender rights, for example, claim any
economic gains will accompany this social progress.
The reason why social progress
has been effectively decoupled from economic progress is that the woeful lack
of economic progress for the bottom 90% proves financial progress is now
limited to an elite comprised of
Oligarchs, Nomenklatura, the Technocrat Class and a relative handful of
entrepreneurs.
⇒ Keep Reading
⇒ Keep Reading
NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
La Europa fragmentada Olga
Rodríguez
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El despiadado Servicio de Inmigración de
Estados Unidos
Danica Jorden
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Guatemala: sociedad podrida Ilka Oliva
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Keiser
report 1039. "El sistema es un fraude en sí
mismo"
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PRESS TV
Egypt
to stand by Syrians against terrorists
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