AUG 9 20 ND SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco
ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics
Just in case you think that can’t happen, just remember no one was expecting a 35% decline in March either... As we said last week, “risk happens fast.”
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Bulls Charge To All-Time Highs
As discussed previously in “Insanely Stupid,” we noted the market remained confined to its consolidation channel, but the bullish bias was to the upside.
With the short-term ‘buy signals’ back in play, the bias at the moment is to the upside.
However, With a bulk of the S&P 500 earnings season behind us, we suspect the weakening economic data will begin to weigh sentiment in August and September.“
See chart:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/SP500-Chart-1-080720.png?itok=2JzgqZT3
A Weighted Distortion
The concern is that what you see with the market, is not necessarily what you get. The chart below shows the number of stocks trading above the 200-dma versus the S&P 500 trading above its 200-dma.
See Chart:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/SP500-breadth-1-080720.png?itok=xejmJ8W8
The market is currently being driven to new highs by the “chase” into the largest mega-capitalization stocks. Sentiment Trader noted this on Friday:
“The biggest stock in the U.S. and nearly the world, Apple, keeps powering higher. At the end of June, the value of Apple alone was nearly 80% of the Russell 2000 index’s market capitalization. As of today, it’s nearly 90%. This is astounding – in the past 40 years, no single stock has come close to dwarfing the value of so many other companies.“
See Chart:
No single stack has been bigger
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/1-17.png?itok=e6SAfPSF
The point here, however, is the top-5 stocks are distorting the overall market participation.
Let Me Explain The Math
Currently, the top-5 S&P stocks by market capitalization (AAPL, AMZN, GOOG, FB, and MSFT) make up the same amount of the S&P 500 as the bottom 394 stocks. Those same five also comprise 26% of the index alone.
See Charts:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/Capitalizaton-Weights-080720.png?itok=pDIByJqB
For each $1 put into each of those top-5 stocks, the impact on the index is the same as putting $1 into each of the bottom 394 stocks. Such is clearly not a true representation of either the market or the economy.
Exuberance Abounds
Specifically, we noted the deviation of the NASDAQ from its 200-dma, which remains near a record high.
“Moving averages, especially longer-term ones, are like gravity.
The Nasdaq currently trades more than 23% above its 200-dma. The last time such a deviation existed was in February of this year. .
Such does not mean the market is about to crash. However, it does suggest the ‘rubber band’ is stretched so tightly any minor disappointment could lead to a contraction in prices.”
SEE CHARTS:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/1-4_8.png?itok=HQIDOl2k
Still, there are also more extreme signs of speculative appetite currently flowing into the markets.
The Greed Factor
The RIAPro sentiment gauge, which is based on actual investor positioning, is at more extreme levels.
SEE CHART:
MARKET GREED / FEAR GAUGE
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/SP500-Greed-Fear-Guage-080720.png?itok=1wXk0NbP
Importantly, this is all very “bullish” for now.
The point about these indicators, is that in the short-term (a few days to a few weeks) it suggests the markets will likely continue to rise. Such is because “momentum” is a tough thing to kill.
However, longer-term, they have a long history of suggesting increasing levels of risk, which eventually leads to less pleasant outcomes.
The Megaphone
In the short-term, there seems to be little worry about. I thought this sentiment was summed up best by Jeffrey Marcus, who manages the TPA Analystics long-short portfolio for RIAPro:
This broadening, or megaphone, pattern is seen below on the monthly chart. Importantly, despite the “correction,” in March, the “bull market” that began in 2009 remains intact as the low monthly close did not break the 4-year moving average.
Furthermore, this is a “monthly” chart, so it is very slow to form. As such, it is critical to consider this analysis in context. The chart does not mean the markets are about to crash, nor is it a useful tool to try and “time” the market.
SEE Chart:
$SPX S&P 500 Large CAP INDEX
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/SP500-MegaPhone-080720.png?itok=ekirdUKu
Here are the current risk/reward ranges:
· +4.4% to 3500 vs. -4.3% to June high breakout support.
· +4.4% to 3500 vs. -5.7% to the 50-dma.
· +12.2% to 3750 vs. -9.6% to the 200-dma
· +12.2% to 3750 vs. -11.5% to the June consolidation lows.
· +19.5% to 4000 vs. -22.17% to the March closing low. (Not shown)
Given there is no good measure to justify upside potential from a breakout to new highs, you can personally go through a lot of mental exercises. While there is certainly a potential the market could rally 19.9% to 4000, it is also just as reasonable the market could decline 22.2% test the March closing lows. Completion of the “megaphone pattern” discussed above would be a 37.43% decline.
Just in case you think that can’t happen, just remember no one was expecting a 35% decline in March either.
As we said last week, “RISK HAPPENS FAST.”
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SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/exuberance-abounds
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GOLDMAN EXPECTS AN ECONOMIC BOOM ONCE AT LEAST ONE IS APPROVED BY THE END OF 2020
"We now expect that at least one vaccine will be approved by the end of 2020 and will be widely distributed by the end of 2021Q2. We have incorporated this timeline as our baseline forecast." –Goldman
As Deutsche Bank Marion Laboure and Jim Reid wrote last week, whereas vaccines normally require years of testing and additional time to produce at scale, amidst the modern era pandemic scientists are hoping to develop a coronavirus vaccine within 12 to 18 months. The reason for that while normally a vaccine takes years to develop using a traditional process, with covid things are far more accelerated...
SEE CHART:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2020-08-09_17-22-37.jpg?itok=HZcqzGE7
and furthermore, there are already no less than 160 covid vaccine candidates currently in process as the following table shows...
See Chart:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/development%20stage%20drugs.jpg?itok=LJakULur
.. with the top 6 listed below.
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/top%206%20candidates.jpg?itok=kK3CYGvu
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My comment:
What I read so far is that this pandemic affects 3 systems: 1-respiratory (langs); 2-cardio-vasculas (brain use infested blood pump by lang-air); 3-the psychological system (the mind). Then, it will take more than a year to completely save one individual. What I hear is that China & RU scientist are trying to kill the root of the virus (if only located inside the lang), then the spreading of the virus will be stopped. The time take it to rid of the residual of the virus from the body is not yet known. The auto-creativity of the immune system plays a role vs the virus auto-reproduction-time too. So, is not one year, maybe two years to finally recover one single body . At least the virus spreading will be cut IF the root of the virus is killed.
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MORGAN STANLEY SOUNDS THE ALARM ON RECORD HIGH BOND DURATION, IS STARTING TO BUY BOND VOLATILITY
With duration exposure surfacing across portfolios, we like owning interest rate volatility.
Year-to-date, the value of the global equity market is broadly unchanged. The value of the global bond market is significantly higher. Home prices in many markets have risen. Indeed, an uncomfortable aspect of 2020 is that this terrible year has generally meant gains for asset owners. US household wealth/GDP has made a new record high.
SEE CHART:
US Household Net Worth/GDP
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/MS%20net%20worth%20to%20gdp.jpg?itok=bhaenxma
Many factors are behind this. The global economy is improving, in line with the V-shaped recovery thesis of Morgan Stanley’s economists. … BUT another driver has been a classic case of 'having your cake and eating it': global bond yields have remained near historical lows, even as global PMIs have moved back above 50. This matters: global investors have historically high exposure to duration.
CONTINUE READING AT:
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Lo importante es que el carro se vendio.. si pagan o no: cuestión de suerte. Create Loto
NO PAYMENT, NO PROBLEM: BIZARRE NEW WORLD OF CONSUMER DEBT
It’s Extend and Pretend all over again...
Nearly all student loans go into forbearance, delinquencies plunge.
Student loan borrowers were automatically rolled into forbearance under the CARES Act, and even though many students had stopped making payments, delinquency rates plunged because the Department of Education had decided to report as “current” all those loans that are in forbearance, even if they were delinquent. Yup, according to New York Fed data, the delinquency rate of student loan borrowers, though many had stopped making payments, plunged from 10.75% in Q1, to 6.97% in Q2, the lowest since 2007:
SEE CHART:
Students Loan Delinquencies Plunge
Delinquent loans are “cured” without catch-up payments.
About 32 million people are claiming unemployment insurance. A much smaller employment shock during the Financial Crisis caused the percentage of delinquent loan balances to soar, and the percentage of “current” loan balances to plunge, to bottom out at 88% in Q4 2009. Not this time. As the percentage of delinquent loan balances fell, the percentage of “current” loan balances jumped to 96.4%, a record high in the New York Fed’s data going back to 2003:
SEE CHART:
% Of Household Loan Balances deemed “Current”
No payment, no problem for auto loans.
Yup, crazy world. Ally Financial reported in its 10-Q filing with the SEC for the second quarter that about 21% of its auto-loan customers were enrolled in its deferral program where they don’t have to make payments for 120 days. “The vast majority of our loan deferrals for customers in the program are scheduled to expire by the end of August 2020,” it said. And then what?
Across all lenders, about 5.9% of the $1.34 trillion in auto loans – so close to $80 billion – are in forbearance, according to the New York Fed. And as a result, borrowers who cannot make the payment, don’t have to make it, and their loans are still deemed “current,” and the percentage of auto loans that are newly delinquent dropped to 6.29%, a record low in the data – while during the last crisis, the delinquent balances were above 10% for nearly two years:
SEE CHART:
CONTINUE READING AT:
SOURCE https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/no-payment-no-problem-bizarre-new-world-consumer-debt
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We need another Lottery here: Good luck!
WHAT'S BEHIND THE DRAMATIC DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE FED AND THE PBOC'S BALANCE SHEETS
To promote lending and combat the worst recession since the Great Depression, the Fed had to aggressively increase money base whereas the PBOC could resort to more direct tools,
Why didn’t the PBOC balance sheet expand during the recent easing cycle?
Investors are all too familiar with how the Fed’s action in response to COVID-19 outbreak has affected its balance sheet. With policy rate cut to zero, the Fed implemented "Unlimited QE" by adding Treasuries and MBS on the asset side of its balance sheet financed by reserve creation on the liability side (Exhibit 1). The pattern was similar to QE1 in 2008 during the GFC followed by QE2 in 2010 and QE3 in 2012.
SEE CHART:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/Fed%20BS%20Aug%202020.jpg?itok=Y5WjvwJ4
CONTINUE READING AT:
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CONCLUSION FROM ABOVE ARTs:
MARTENSON: IT'S TIME TO POSITION FOR THE ENDGAME
"Are you, like us, sensing that things are poised to fall apart?"
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US DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambio
"It puts the administration in a different position than
what they’ve been used to. It’s smart politics.
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FACULTY, STUDENTS ACROSS US STAGE "DIE-INS" TO PROTEST RETURN TO CAMPUS
"no deaths for tuition dollar$"... "we are not disposable,"
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ANOTHER RIOT DECLARED IN PORTLAND AFTER LEFTISTS SET FIRE INSIDE POLICE UNION BUILDING
A 'mostly peaceful' arson...
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US-WORLD ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State socialis+K-, D rest in limbo
YEAT .. THEY ARE INNOCENT, pero debieron ser FUSILADOS. We don’t like fake news
TWO EX-GREEN BERETS SENTENCED TO 20 YEARS IN PRISON FOR "ROGUE" VENEZUELA OP
Found guilty of charges including terrorism,
conspiracy, and illicit arms trafficking.
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO ..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars & danger of WW3
-Payroll Tax Cut May Be Permanent, Trump Says
- Sounds of Powerful Blasts Heard in Protest-Hit Minsk, Cloud of Smoke Is Seen
- Trump Says US Will Send Additional Aid to Lebanon
- Saudi Aramco Sees Profit Decline by 50% as CV Slams Global Energy Sector
- Netizens Complain About BBC Failing to Cover Minsk Protest
- Police Use Smoke Bombs, Tear Gas, Water Cannons to Disperse Protest in Minsk
- Belarus Police Detaining People Near Victory Square in Minsk
-MINSK Lukashenko Leads With 81.35% of Votes, Electoral Body Says
- Protesters in Beirut Storm Ministry of Labour and Ministry for Refugee Affairs
- Clashes Resume in Central Beirut, Reports Say
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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to neo-fascist regimes & terrorist imperial chaos
RT EN ESPAÑOL
Localizan barco que transportó explosivo responsable de la tragedia en Beirut https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/362625-ubicacion-barco-transporto-explosivo-tragedia-beirut
US: nuevo video muestra al preso afro gritando "no puedo respirar" antes de morir https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/362681-eeuu-video-preso-afroamericano-respirar-muerto
Puede alguien generar respuesta positiva al CV sin haberse infectado? Científ dicen SI https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/362658-suponen-sistema-inmunologico-personas-reconoce-covid
Francia y Alemania abandonan conversa sobre REF de OMS, tras intenc US. d liderarlo https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/362672-francia-alemania-abandonan-conversaciones-reforma-oms-eeuu-liderar-proceso
Bielorrusia vive choques con la Policía ante previsible victoria de Lukashenko https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/362718-choques-policia-manifestantes-bielorrusia-videos
JA news: Ch y Ru desdolarizan su comercio para avanzar hacia una "alianza financiera" https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/362627-china-rusia-desdolarizar-comercio-alianza-financiera
Fabricante mundial de vacunas anti-CV-19 fija precio máximo de 3 dólares por dosis https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/362668-mayor-fabricante-vacunas-volumen-fija-precio-dosis
Elevado consumo de arroz es mayor riesgo de muerte por enfermedades del corazón https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/362508-consumo-arroz-riesgo-muerte-enfermedades-corazon
Vacuna rusa Anti CV-19 pasa la última fase de exámenes antes de ser registrada https://actualidad.rt.com/video/362694-vacuna-rusa-covid-ultima-fase-examenes-antes-registrada
Bolivia: candidato de MAS pide determinar fecha fija para las elecciones generales https://actualidad.rt.com/video/362665-bolivia-mas-pide-determinar-fecha-elecciones
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CROSS TALK https://www.rt.com/shows/crosstalk/
On Contact: Voter fraud, stealing elections
Chris Hedges discusses the potential for voter fraud in the 2020 presidential election with investigative journalist Greg Palast.
SOURCE: https://soundcloud.com/rttv/on-contact-voter-fraud-stealing-elections
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more business-wars from US-NATO allies
- Beirut Suffers While Demanding Answers By Steven Sahiounie
- Beirut Blast. “Geopolitical Forces at Work” By Chandra Muzaffar
- “Greater Econ Depres” Exceed the 1930s: Unemploym Armageddon By S L
- Australia: Pawn in US Conflict with China By Tony Cartalucci,
- Attack on Indigenous Rights in Brazil By Yanis Iqbal,
- Trump Scuttles Econ Stimulus Negot. What Next? By Jack Rasmus,
- The World on Fire By Robert Hunziker,
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