AUG 8 20 ND SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco
US PASSES 5 MILLION CORONAVIRUS CASES, BRAZIL PASSES 3 MILLION: LIVE UPDATES
Meanwhile, in Hong Kong, the total number of confirmed cases has topped 4,000
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ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics
3 REASONS TREASURY RATES CAN STILL HIT 0%: PART III, THE DEATH OF GROWTH
From a longer-term secular standpoint, economic growth will fall into a new regime, sub 2% which will weigh on bond yields...
Authored by Eric Basmajian via EPBMacroResearch.com,
· Deflation remains a more credible risk, not inflation. The output gap suggests core inflation could sink below 0.5% in the coming years.
· FX hedged Treasury yields remain higher than yields at home. This will increase foreign appetite for US rates.
· From a longer-term secular standpoint, economic growth will fall into a new regime, sub 2%, which will weigh on bond yields.
· Further stimulus from the fiscal side will delay the full extent of the deflationary output gap but will not change the end result in the final analysis.
· As part of your balanced portfolio, long-term Treasury bonds are still a valuable holding as the path to 0% remains a probable scenario.
In the final part of this trilogy, we discuss long-run economic growth potential and suggest that real growth is going to fall materially short of consensus expectations at the Federal Reserve and the Congressional Budget Office. Using very reasonable assumptions, a base case estimate is that trend economic growth could sink well below 1.5%, pushing down the risk-free rate in the economy.
It is said that the GDP growth rate is the average rate of return on an economic investment for your mid-range risk. In other words, if GDP growth averaged 3.1% nominally or 1.4% in real terms over the last ten years, the average investment into the economy would yield roughly 3% nominally or 1.4% in real terms. These numbers are averages, and thus some projects may generate a 5% cash on cash return while others may break even.
LONG-TERM GROWTH PROSPECTS
Throughout this note, I will be referencing a paper written by Anirvan Banerji, and Lakshman Achuthan of ECRI titled, “Cyclical Misconceptions Driving Policy Mistakes: Keys To The Productivity Puzzle.”
The chart below shows the annualized rate of nominal GDP growth segmented into five-year blocks. Growth has been drifting lower in nominal terms from all three vectors, softer inflation, lower labor force growth, and weaker productivity growth, averaging about 3.1% over the last decade.
Despite this consistent trend, the Congressional Budget Office “CBO” is forecasting the next decade to bring 3.5% nominal GDP growth.
US Nominal GDP: Annualized Growth (%):
See Chart:
Annualized Rate of GDP Growth
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/1-1%20%281%29_0.png?itok=amxckm_j
1.4% productivity growth is a highly optimistic assumption, and a step function increase from the 0.8% average productivity growth over the last ten years.
Annualized Rate of Productivity Growth (%):
See Chart:
Annualized Rate of Productivity Growth: Output per hour
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/3-1%20%281%29_0.png?itok=D6dbNJi8
Conventional wisdom suggests that productivity growth is mean-reverting, but the constant underperformance of growth relative to expectations challenges this view. Dr. Lacy Hunt proposes that productivity growth falters under the increased weight of debt, a thesis we’ve outlined many times and discussed in the most recent [Quarterly Webcast]. This view supports a decline in productivity over the next ten years as opposed to an increase, pegging growth at something below 1.2% on average (0.4% labor force growth + <0.8% productivity growth).
Annualized Rate of Productivity Growth (%):
See Chart:
Annualized Rate of Productivity Growth: Output per hour
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/4-1%20%281%29_0.png?itok=J2X9uqwR
The chart below shows the 10-year annualized rate of real private domestic nonresidential investment. This includes investment in equipment, structures, as well as intellectual property.
Private Nonresidential Fixed Investment:
See Chart:
10 Year Annualized Growth in real Private domestic Non Resi investment
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/5-1%20%281%29_0.png?itok=L2pw3WY9
Nonresidential fixed investment as a percentage of total GDP has been flat for many decades, likely to slide in the coming quarters as is typically after recessions.
See Chart:
Private Nonresidential Fixed Investment As A % of GDP:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/6-1%20%282%29.png?itok=NSgrvTEB
Net National Savings As A % Of Gross National Income:
See Chart:
Net Savings as % gross national income will fall to all time Low
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/9%20%281%29.png?itok=YYK_5RDc
Under these circumstances, nominal bond yields pushing close to the ZLB is not unreasonable and, in fact, likely.
The deflationary output gap, positive FX-hedged Treasury rates, and another step-function lower in trend economic growth are three main factors that can push long-term Treasury rates near 0% in the coming years.
SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/3-reasons-treasury-rates-can-still-hit-0-part-iii-death-growth
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GORDON: "WE'RE HEADING TO COMPLETE FINANCIAL, MORAL, & POLITICAL COLLAPSE"
"normalization is a Fed lie...The dollar is being destroyed before us. "
SEE CHART:
Fed Balance Sheet
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfm136B.jpg?itok=jBcx1UST
The Fed’s real priority was never to reduce its balance sheet. The Fed’s real priority is to keep the Treasury and the big banks flush with cash.
Money Printer Go BRRR
A secondary effect – for now – of the Fed’s balance sheet expansion is a booming stock market. THIS, LIKE THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION, IS A DISTRACTION.
SEE CHART:
Fed Balance Sheet vs DOW Industrial
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfmC9B7.jpg?itok=vwbrB7-j
What we’re talking about here are interest rates. If you haven’t noticed, they’ve been going down as of late. In fact, they have been going down a lot. The yield on the 10-Year Treasury note dropped to nearly 0.5 percent earlier in the week.
Attaining this remarkable milestone took decades of lies, propaganda, and relentless intervention by central planners. A good portion of the Fed’s balance sheet assets, shown on the chart above, are U.S. Treasuries.
The Dollar Is Dying
This fake brrr money functions just like Federal Reserve Notes (i.e. dollars) that were obtained through honest labor. Yet, as the fake brrr money’s spent, the wealth of savers – including your wealth – is debased. The dollar becomes worth less and less.
One of life’s unspoken delights is the rich satisfaction that comes with bearing witness to the spectacular failure of an offensive and unjust system. We just wish it wasn’t so damaging to so many good and honest people.
The dollar is being destroyed before us.
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SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/gordon-were-heading-complete-financial-moral-political-collapse
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US DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambio
TRUMP SIGNS EXECUTIVE ORDERS ON CORONAVIRUS RELIEF, PAYROLL TAX
He's doing it...
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WHILE AMERICANS SACRIFICE TO SURVIVE THE PANDEMIC, CEO COMPENSATION HAS BARELY CHANGED
The CEOs of major companies have taken pay cuts "in solidarity with workers"that usually amount to less than 5% of their total compensation...
Companies last year paid executives an average of 264 times their median worker salary. It's another example of how the pandemic has disproportionately affected the middle and lower class. The Fed's response to the crisis, has also served as a monumental example of this.
SEE CHART:
CEO PAYS RATIO
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/ceo1.jpg?itok=dSKTNof7
When a company was asked about why they ended early, they stated: “The business demanded that we conserve cash and it is recovering faster than we expected.”
Great, so we should expect nothing but blowout results from General Motors for the rest of the year.
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FEDS UNCOVER "MOST SOPHISTICATED TUNNEL IN US HISTORY" ALONG SOUTHERN BORDER
"Homeland Security Investigations and our esteemed law enforcement partners swiftly and effectively worked together to uncover..."
….
From Arizona to Mx
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It is the Anti-American Tsunami that is coming
CHINA'S INDO-PACIFIC NEIGHBORS STAND UP TO ITS HEGEMONIC AMBITIONS
Unless Beijing takes steps to correct its mistakes, dial down its rhetoric, and address the disputes, it’s likely that this growing surge of anti-China sentiment may turn into a tsunami...
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'TWITTOK?': TWITTER REPORTEDLY JOINS GROWING LIST OF POTENTIAL TIKTOK SUITORS
Twitter joins the battle for what could be the last major tech M&A deal for a while, as anti-trust fervor in Congress and the White House accrues genuine bipartisan support.
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CIA STUNS IN SAYING "NO EVIDENCE" TIKTOK GIVING ITS DATA TO CHINA
CIA weighs in as Trump advances controversial ban...
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'BROKE AND UNEMPLOYED' HUNTER BIDEN SLAPPED WITH $450K TAX LIEN - WHICH WAS 'RESOLVED' IN SIX DAYS
It's a big club and you ain't in it...
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MODERN MONETARY THEORY IS PLAYING WITH FIRE
If the country embraced MMT, there would be massive concerns with cronyism as politicians would be unleashed to give virtually as much money to their friends as possible. There will be a populist tug of war over the printing press..
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DAVID STOCKMAN: THE BIGGEST THREAT TO YOUR PROSPERITY AND WHAT YOU CAN DO
If you want to understand America’s dangerously deepening travails, you have to start at the Federal Reserve’s Eccles Building...
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MORE THAN 84,000 MAIL IN BALLOTS DISQUALIFIED IN NEW YORK CITY PRIMARY
The 84,108 ballots that were not countedrepresented 21% of the total mail-in ballots
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"HUGE INCREASE" - AMERICANS RENOUNCING CITIZENSHIP SURGES TO RECORD LEVEL
"It seems that the pandemic hasmotivated U.S. ex-pats to cut ties and avoid the current political climate and onerous tax reporting."
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US-WORLD ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State socialis+K-, D rest in limbo
TIKTOK PLANS TO SUE WHITE HOUSE OVER 'NATIONAL SECURITY' BAN
"The order has no findings of fact,
just reiterates rhetoric about China that has been kicking around."
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WORLD'S TOP EPIDEMIOLOGISTS - MASKS DON'T WORK!
“Face masks in public places are not necessary, based on all the current evidence... There is no benefit and the may even be negative impact.”
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"LEAVE, YOU ARE ALL KILLERS!" PROTESTERS STORM MULTIPLE GOVERNMENT MINISTRIES IN BEIRUT
Already one police officer dead and hundreds injured in raging Beirut protests in deadly "negligent" blast aftermath...
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO ..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars & danger of WW3
- Trump Signs Executive Orders on Coronavirus Relief for Americans
- UK Becoming More Tied to US Policy After Leaving EU, Russian Ambassador Says
- US Will Reduce Troops in Afghanistan to 'Less Than 5,000', Esper Says
- Twitter Holds Preliminary Talks on Possible Combination with TikTok
- TikTok to Sue US Government Over Trump's Order As Early As 11 August
- Police Say 5,000 People Rally Near Netanyahu Residence, Media Rep About 15,000
- Military Trying to Maintain Order in Beirut Amid Anti-Govt Protests
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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to neo-fascist regimes & terrorist imperial chaos
RT EN ESPAÑOL
Libano: Miles de libaneses protestan tras las explosiones en Beirut https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/362626-libano-policia-gases-manifestantes-explosion-beirut
Hong Kong conta sanciones de US. y lo acusa de usarlos como "peón" contra China https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/362620-interferencia-descarada-hong-kong-responde-sanciones-eeuu-peon-contra-china
Asintomáticos con covid-19 portan altas cantid del virus y son igual de contagiosos https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/362603-personas-asintomaticas-covid-portan-virus-contagiosos
TikTok demandaría al Gob US. por orden ejecutiva de Trump que veta su servicio https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/362642-tiktok-demandar-gobierno-eeuu-orden-trump
No sé qué vamos hacer cuando llegue el invierno": habitant de Beirut sufren efecto de explosiones https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/362630-habitante-beirut-vamos-hacer-invierno
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VOLTAIRE NET ORG https://www.voltairenet.org/en
On the night of 6 August 2020, we posted an article by Thierry Meyssan titled “Israel destroys East Beirut with a new weapon”. To illustrate our point, we included a video showing a missile striking the alleged Hezbollah warehouse in the port of Beirut.
This video, whose origin we acknowledged that we didn’t know, turned out to be a fabrication made from CNN footage.
It has now been removed from the article. It could have been left out altogether since it was not necessary. We apologize to our readers for this illustrational misstep.
Moreover, Benjamin Netanyahu’s photo is not the correct one. It shows the Hezbollah site next to the highway near the airport, instead of the one in the port area. This is the only copyright-free image that we could find. If you have access to the correct photo that is also copyright-free, please send it to us so that we can replace the current one.
Finally, it should be noted that Hezbollah had removed its weapons from this warehouse after Netanyahu’s speech in 2018 ... something that Israel seems to overlook.
SOURCE: https://www.voltairenet.org/article210681.html
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CROSS TALK https://www.rt.com/shows/crosstalk/
PROF. CORNEL WEST: JOE BIDEN A NEOLIBERAL DISASTER, DONALD TRUMP A NEOFASCIST CATASTROPHE! (E914)
On this special episode of Going Underground, we speak to Prof. Cornel West. He discusses the 2020 election of Donald Trump vs Joe Biden, Joe Biden’s role in the rise of mass incarceration, US foreign policy in the Middle East, the explosion at Beirut port in Lebanon, why Donald Trump’s opposition to Middle East intervention is farcical, the ongoing coronavirus pandemic and the Trump administration’s response, the loss of Bernie Sanders in the Democratic primary, the rise of the Black Lives Matter movement and the challenging of
eoliberalism within the black community, why the US is an empire in decline and much more!
SOURCE: https://www.rt.com/shows/going-underground/497355-cornel-west-us-biden/
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more business-wars from US-NATO allies
-Manipulated Rules of Data Collect and Report. Is It Safe for Students to Return to School? By H. Ealy, M. McEvoy, and et al.
- Hiroshima at 75. The Doomsday Clock and the Ongoing Threat of “Atomic Horror” By Michael Welch et al
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