Nueva Democracia: AUG 20 20 ND SIT EC y POL

AUG 20 20 ND SIT EC y POL

ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco

ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS

Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics

BIG-TECH, BONDS, BITCOIN, & BULLION BID AS DOLLAR DIVE CONTINUES

From the opening bell today, stocks - well, we should say mega-tech stocks - were utterly panic bid (catalyzed early by JNJ vaccine headlines), with the Nasdaq erasing all of the post-FOMC Minutes losses (NOTE that none of the other major indices managed to retrace the losses)...

See Chart:

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2020-08-20_12-53-40.jpg?itok=tFzjlg_2

On the day, The Dow may suffer its 4th losing day in a row - a terrible thing that has not been seen since February - but it, like everything else, was bid into the green and beyond. Small Caps closed red...

See Chart:

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2020-08-20_13-00-21.jpg?itok=jYV4GsEI

YTD, the Nasdaq is crushing Chinese stocks and Europe remains negative..

See Chart:

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfm7741.jpg?itok=0rz0_hgL

FANG stocks rallied back near its record intraday high and closed at a record closing high...

See Chart:

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfm6145.jpg?itok=RQHTNPa0

Bonds were also bid (after disappointing claims data showed an economy un-recovering), erasing all of the FOMC Minutes spike in yields...

See Chart:

UST 10Y YIELD

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfm2AE4.jpg?itok=CcO9BswM

The B-dollar Index chopped around early on but tumbled after Europe closed...

SEE Chart

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfm4078.jpg?itok=teLhL-zu

And as the dollar slipped, gold rallied back from yesterday's dive...

See Chart:

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfm3F7A.jpg?itok=X7Efwvox

CTA positioning in gold fits with the price move but silver seems to suggest there is room for more as CTAs are squeezed in....

See Charts:

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2020-08-20%20%283%29.png?itok=hLjQFE2L

As did silver...

Since the FOMC Minutes suggested no YCC, only gold is still lower as Nasdaq ripped back to catch up and overtake the dollar and bonds...

See Chart:

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2020-08-20_12-44-11.jpg?itok=JWhiqEDb

Oil prices dumped and pumped today and ended lightly lower...

See Chart:

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2020-08-20_12-37-47.jpg?itok=SdAxGxYz

Finally, remember tomorrow is opex and there's a metric fuckton of gamma due to lift on QQQs...

What is perhaps more notable is the potential for this to end... soon. Nomura's Charlie McElligott writes today about the impact of tomorrow's options expiration given the derivative market's exposure goinb in. The $Gamma seen in QQQ (Nasdaq) options remains rather "extreme" at 87.3%ile (was 95th %ile into yday) as we have rallied violently to upper strikes.

See Chart:

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2020-08-20.png?itok=ods9d09H

This, McElligott warns, in conjunction with 99.3%ile $Delta and now an expected 58% of the Gamma rolling-off after this Friday's expiration (!!!) makes the case for potentially "binary" price-action next week with a catalyst in either direction, as Dealer "long Gamma" hedging flows should collapse thereafter and allow for a much larger range of movement.

Additionally, the cross-asset strategy MD notes that he currently sees QQQ Gamma "flipping" below $272.06, ex tomorrow's expiry.

And there is an increasingly ominous major (bearish) divergence between the 'price' of the index and the breadth of its underlying components (in this case, the % of names above their 50-day moving average) suggests trouble ahead...

SEE CHART

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfm7608_0.jpg?itok=n1gKvF0b

It certainly did not end well in February as the index continued to rise in the face of growing virus headlines from around the world (but under the hood, a growing number of names were doubting the index's apparent omnipotence).

SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-bonds-bullion-bid-dollar-dive-continues

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MAULDIN: WE HAVE AN ECONOMIC 'EIGHT-BODY' PROBLEM

Every one of the “bodies” mentioned will have a significant recovery impact. We don’t know how they will interact...

….

If you have three large objects that have gravitational impact on each other, you can determine where they have been in the past.

In physics, this is called the three-body problem.

In economics, we are well beyond the three-body problem.

I think it is more like an eight-body problem.

See if you agree: [ In brakes come my comments]

Body No. 1: The service economy has imploded. [ the privatization of the Health service is the worse malady in our body, or Nation]

Body No. 2: We have seen the largest central bank intervention, not just in the US but in many parts of the world, ever in history. [Big Private Corp use central bank to recycle their power. They get QEs and Bailouts to play with the fake ‘centralized’ economy. And they evade & sabotage the tax system creating the biggest DEBT in US History. Their over-lending of junk mortgages create bubbles (asset price inflation) that pop-up & create bankruptcies & un-employ. The Fed Res need to write-down (prohibit or close what doesn’t bring expected benefits ) to alleviate debts, & keep debts back to the ability to be paid (this is called ‘clean state’). That is that big Corp don’t want it because that impose loses on their bondholders & other financial players in Wall Street. They prefer to continue feeding the fake economy we have.]

Body No. 3: Federal Reserve policy and, to some extent, government policy has short-circuited both Schumpeter’s creative destruction cycle and moral hazard. Companies with the lowest-rated junk bonds are refinancing their debt at lower rates. In some cases, that means we are keeping zombie companies afloat. [Good, but not ‘in some cases’.. in most cases now ]

Body No. 4: Global trade is beginning to implode. [ The global recession is now in full display. I pardon your xenophobia , “China is not a good actor” ? We threat them with war, we imposing sanctions and other idiotic things. FACT 1- their economy is better than our. FACT 2: they don’t need us, we need them. ]

Body No. 5: On average, six companies with assets larger than $50 million have filed for bankruptcy every week since April. This is going to increase and become a tsunami. Small local companies don’t even bother filing because it’s too expensive. Every one of them represents jobs. [ good ]

This is the hard one…

Body No. 6: The working class will be last to see the recovery. Most of the jobs that are being lost are by the least-well-off in our society. We're talking about tens of millions of workers who can’t work from home. Unemployment insurance won’t cover the bills when the federal money runs out. [ good ]

Good hopes or utopias

Body No. 7: Entrepreneurs will re-emerge, and new ones will seize this moment to shine. All those businesses going bankrupt or out of business? They are run by entrepreneurs who have the entrepreneurial bug. It is part of their DNA. [ [[FACT 1. Con la deuda publica y privada nos hemos comido parte del futuro. The machine printing USD from the thing air, nos ha salvado hasta ahora. FACT 2- La caida dollar es inminente y solo con USD respaldado en oro podríamos tener futuro. The Key QT is: tenemos suficiente oro para mantener la hegemonía que hasta ahora tuvimos?. No lo creo. Y no por las malas intenciones de Trump de robarlo de China y RU a partir de la 3ra Guerra Mundial. Hace un año NATO envió 48,000 soldados para ello y no pudieron lograrlo. El Covit 19 infecto a los soldados y postergamos el evento. Hoy el WW3 no es option por la capacidad de respuesta inmediata de RU-Ch. La guerra es suicidio para el US. FACT 3- La unica solución viable es la de FDR: imponer impuestos a la grandes corporac y si no quieren ser americanos, se los expropia y que se vayan. ]

Body No. 8: We are in the midst of The Greatest Transformation in history. [[ si lo creo. Pero no a partir de mitos, utopias y buenas intenciones. Creo que no hay forma de detener el avance de nuestra nación hacia la REVOLUCION SOCIALISTA. Una REV que no será violenta sino lo opuesto: destinada a frenar la violencia que dejara el sistema duo-polico (Dems vs Reps) durante y luego de las elecciones. Estos partidos han cocinado una carga de violencia que va a estallar y creara GOB ilegitimo y de imposible gobernabilidad. Frente a esto el FRENTE SOCIALISTA va a nacer con fuerza y exigirá QUE SE VAYAN TODOS y mediante REFERENDUMS locales, regionales y estatales avanzara y creara nuevas Leyes y gobiernos populares. Eso es lo que viene y ninguna de las elites de arriba lo podrá detener. Las fuerzas militares se unirán al pueblo y junto a las milicias populares crearan un nuevo sistema de seguridad nacional. Los NEW DEALS de FDR REGRESAREN A AMERICA y nacerá una nueva NACION sin imperio , lo que dejara sin espacio a NATO y sus payasos. Un nuevo orden mundial sin imperialismos nacerá a nivel internacional y el DESMONTAJE NUCLEAR SERÁ una REALIDAD. A esto apunta la REV SOCIALISTA de America]]

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HOW FEAR AND UNCERTAINTY DRIVES DEMAND FOR GOLD

"The degree of hoarding is always proportional to the confidence in government and its currency..."

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A NEW CRISIS IN THE MAKING: QE IS CAUSING A SECURITY SHORTAGE, AND HOW THE FED IS DEFLECTING ATTENTION (FOR NOW)

Meet the SOMA Securities Lending program.

SEE CHART:

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/new-crisis-making-qe-causing-security-shortage-and-how-fed-addressing-it-now

And although the Fed effectively absorbed roughly the same amount of net new Treasurys issued by the Treasury, Curvature securities' strategist Scott Skyrm points out that the composition of new Treasurys entering the market is different from the Treasurys the Fed purchased.

That's because the Treasury issued new on-the-runs and bills, while the Fed purchased off-the-run issues. That is, older, seasoned securities. (as a reminder, one of the reasons LTCM blew up is that it had a massive convergence trade between On and Off the Runs which suddenly went haywire and required a Fed bailout, the first of many).

As Skyrm points out, one result of the Fed's aggressive purchases of off-the-run securities is that the Fed now holds a large percentage of the outstanding amount of several issues. The maximum amount the Fed will buy is 70% of the amount outstanding. This means the Fed has taken a significant amount of some Treasury issues out of the market.

CONTINUE READING AT:

SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/new-crisis-making-qe-causing-security-shortage-and-how-fed-addressing-it-now

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"THIS IS NOT NORMAL": A STUNNED MORGAN STANLEY SAYS VOLUMES ARE "WAY BEYOND JUST LOW"

"This is NOT a typical August lull in liquidity."

Single name options had the WORST Jan-July of volumes since 2010 – totally at odds with other asset classes. In March, the ratio of notional SX5E index option notional volume traded vs. notional traded in SX5E single names reached 37x – a 10Y high (we have adjusted the SX5E single name basket to allow for index rebals through time). The ratio has since fallen to 15x (right chart below) driven by the drop in index. Both SNO and index option volumes are <1st %-ile vs. 2010.

SEE CHART:

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/total%20notional%20volumes%20MS.jpg?itok=3Jvy8tHZ

Finally, at the SX5E/SXXP level, use of the closing auction has fallen sharply in the last month. It’s likely that those trading cash equities are more active/intraday players. This is supported further by the fact that key cyclical sectors are seeing the least use of the auction over the last week (Banks use is just 13%, 1st percentile vs. 2012).

SEE CHART:

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bid%20ask%20spread%20MS.jpg?itok=0MbXofuo

…..

SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/market-has-died-stunned-morgan-stanley-says-volumes-are-way-beyond-just-low

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US DOMESTIC POLITICS

Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambio

The PENTA shouting his foot (Trump on it). Pompeo is not afraid of war crime penalties

POMPEO BLASTS EUROPEAN ALLIES AS "SIDING WITH AYATOLLAHS" AFTER REJECTING IRAN 'SNAPBACK SANCTIONS'

Ironically, US claiming authority to initiate a procedure on basis it's still a participant in the 2015 nuclear deal...

…..

Is it true that Pompeo help Saudi’ terrorists after 9/11 bombing? Saudis were prohibited to left the US & someone mention his help. I will check back my files to confirm/discard this INFO. What I do remember is Pompeo’ involve in selling Raytheon weapons to Saudis (precision guided missiles worth more than $450 Million), weapons that killed thousands of innocent civilian in Yemen. But this is a recent affair (2018-19) . We must check previous Pompeo-Saudi- affairs I suspect Pompeo is not interested in Trump’ re-election. Money divides People

SOURCE: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/10/us/politics/pompeo-inspector-general-saudi-arms.html

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SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA HAS THE WORST AIR QUALITY IN THE WORLD AS WILDFIRES RAGE

"Over the past 72 hours, California has experienced a historic lightning siege."

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TRUMP'S VOW TO REVIVE COAL MAY BE OVER

The hype and hope were fun while it lasted.

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Instead of going Agst them, Trump must support them. It’s that US want in elect-time

SHOULD SNOWDEN AND ASSANGE PARDON THE US GOVERNMENT?

...it is the U.S. government that has engaged in terrible wrongdoings that Snowden and Assange revealed to the American people and the people of the world...

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RECONCILIATION is what will give to election CIRCUS a new meaning: PEACE for our Nation instead of violence and a real sense of democracy & freedom.

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US-WORLD ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)

Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State socialis+K-, D rest in limbo

IRAN UNVEILS NEW BALLISTIC MISSILE NAMED AFTER SOLEIMANI DAYS AFTER UN VOTE TO DROP ARMS EMBARGO

Tehran chose this moment as a boastful & triumphant thumb in the eye to the United States...

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VON GREYERZ: IS COVID THE MOST PERFECT DISTRACTION?

there was clearly something rotten in the kingdom of the financial world.

….

The coming likely implosion of the financial system and depression will for decades be blamed on a pandemic which was only a catalyst and never the cause of the fall of the global economy. The real cause is a rotten financial system and an unmanageable debt burden which I have discussed in many articles.

US GDP fell 32.9% in Q2 and the UK GDP was down 20.4%.

(MIS-)MANAGEMENT OF CV

SEE CHART:

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/mgt.jpg?itok=7Hd5JZ5s

THE END OF THE STOCK MARKET MIRACLE?

The biggest miracle currently is the stock market. After the February-March collapse, we have seen a rally that defies reality. This rally is a total disconnect with economic facts and only based on a combination of hope and printed money which is worthless. On January 30th this year I published an article called “INFLATE AND DIE – STOCK COLLAPSE AND GOLD SURGE IMMINENT”

CENTRAL BANKS UNDERWRITE GOLD

Absolutely nothing has changed in the long term bull market of gold that in this phase started in 1999. What guarantees this secular bull market in gold is central banks’ continued and accelerated destruction of paper money. Nothing can be more certain than that. So gold between $1,900 and $2,000 is still an absolute bargain.

GOLD IS STILL A BARGAIN

The chart below comparing gold to US money supply tells us that gold is as cheap today at $1,945 as it was in 1970 at $35 and as cheap as in 2000 at $290.

SEE CHART:

GOLD Adjusted for Fiat Money Quantity

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/gold_inf.jpg?itok=rNe9rUwN

So measured in fiat money, gold is likely to move up by multiples from here. But it is obviously meaningless to measure gold in a unit like dollars which will become worthless. So if the dollar becomes worthless gold, will go to infinity which is immeasurable too.

Just think about gold in grammes or ounces as the best insurance and wealth preservation asset that you can acquire today. It is a bargain at current levels and will protect investors from the destruction of currencies and the financial system.

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SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/von-greyerz-covid-most-perfect-distraction

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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS

GEO-POL n GEO-ECO ..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars & danger of WW3

-Final Day of DNC: Biden Vows to End 'Season of Darkness' in Jab at Trump as He Accepts Nomination

- Medical Jet Set to Transport Navalny to Berlin for Treatment Lands in Russia's Omsk

- Medics Believe Russian Opposition Figure Navalny is Too Unstable to be Moved for Further Treatment

- Sputnik V: Why Russian Vaccine Was Developed So Quickly

- Coronavirus Live Updates: Brazil Confirms Over 3.5 Million Infected

- US 'Third Party': How New Progressive Movement May Further Divide Dems & Challenge Biden

- Trade Dialogue With China Ended Up Victim of Trump’s Election Campaign