AUG 13 20 ND SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco
ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics
“If your division hits the ball out of the park for the year - you’re probably better off when that happens in a good year for the overall firm..."
As BBG points out in a new story, just because they saved the firm's bottom line last quarter, doesn't mean they'll be getting the personal windfall they feel they deserve (a 30%-50% higher than last year's paltry comp).
Everybody is likely bound to be disappointed...
"People who have taken compensation hits over the years are not going to see the increase they’re expecting,” said Michael Karp, chief executive officer of recruiter Options Group, who predicts more defections by managing directors who run teams. “That’s where there will be a lot of discontent."
...especially after last year's bonuses were lean across the street, as banks were hammered by the return to zero interest rates. While the bonuses will certainly be an improvement, as the chart below shows.
SEE CHART:
Plus, with the Fed pumping an endless flood of liquidity into markets, it's not like these traders had to really work that hard for their money.Anybody who disagrees can try throwing in an application at DDTG.
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REAL-TIME CARD SPENDING DATA SUGGESTS A SIZABLE MISS IN TOMORROW'S RETAIL SALES REPORT
Using its debit and credit card data, BofA forecasts retail sales ex-auto to increase by just 0.3% mom, which would be a material miss to consensus expectations of a 1.3% increase.
With the retail sales report on deck tomorrow morning, traders will be curious to see if consumer spending indeed fizzled in July just as the fiscal cliff discussed earlier hit, and as consumers in impacted states hunkered down.
Below are some key observations:
1. Unemployment insurance (UI):
In general, and as one would expect, the YOY rate of growth for UI recipients declined but it increased for the broader population. The differential was the largest for the lower income cohort.
See Chart:
The change in total card expending growth for IU recipients vs all else
2. Back-to-school (or not): The back-to-school (BTS) shopping season is meaningfully different this year with many students not returning to school in person. To gauge the impact of such, BofA created a composite of retailers that are most highly correlated to the August BTS and examine the trends this year vs. last.
The BTS composite has shown no growth since early June this year vs. a 20% increase between early July and August last year. That said, interestingly, there is a meaningful increase in online department store spending over the most recent period, which could reflect BTS shopping.
See Charts:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/back%20to%20school%20bofa.jpg?itok=3BwcKQbZ
3. Monthly data for July: The BofA census retail sales forecast is based on the BAC data which showed that retail sales ex-autos improved a modest 0.3% mom SA in July, bringing the 3-month moving average to 5.4%.
See Chart:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bac%20card%20spending%20%201.jpg?itok=1qCTM_gR
The bank forecasts retail sales ex-auto from Census Bureau to also increase by just 0.3% mom, which would bring the Census 3-month moving average in line with that of BAC card data, and would also be a material miss to consensus expectations of a 1.3% increase.
See Chart:
However, BofA cautions that the risk is to the upside given that grocery stores spending, which dropped 1% mom, has a bigger share in BAC retail spending than in the Census retail report.
See Chart
The charts below show the "big picture" in daily card spending by major category.
See Charts:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/spending%20by%20category.jpg?itok=fPA8XywF
Spending on a regional basis shows that most cities that continue to have shutdowns or are otherwise affected by ongoing riots, continue to lag.
See Charts:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/spending%20regional%20basis.jpg?itok=XXAEyDuS
Broken down between online and "brick and mortar", the spending winner is all too clear:
See Charts:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bofa%20online.jpg?itok=NT9TNvUX
And, as observed previously, the spending recovery continues to be led by the lower income (those earnings <$50K cohort which is most dependent on government benefits):
See Charts:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/spending%20by%20income.jpg?itok=LjdhvPE4
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BEYOND THE (BENEFITS) CLIFF: THE WILE E. COYOTE MOMENT FOR THE US CONSUMER
Consumer spending will suffer a material hit if expanded unemployment benefits are not renewed.
As we noted two months ago, and again as seen in Figure 2, consumer spending by lower-income households has significantly outpaced middle and higher income. In fact, by mid-June spending by lower-income households had already completely normalized. However, around the end of July, consumer spending fell more for lower-income households, no doubt impacted by the sharp decline in unemployment benefits that occurred during this time (Figure 3).
SEE CHART:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/spending%20low%20income.jpg?itok=KD43qKM4
Separately, and consistent with the idea that the expiration of unemployment benefits is likely to impair consumer spending negatively, particularly for lower-income households, Google mobility data also indicates that since the end of July foot traffic around retail has underperformed in states that were more likely to be impacted negatively by the expiration of these benefits.
This can be seen in Figure 4, where there is a clearly negative relationship between the insured unemployment rate in a state – with states with a higher insured unemployment rate more sensitive to changes in benefits – and the change in mobility around retail outlets.
See Chart:
Feeling the impact of expired benefits
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/foot%20traffic%201.jpg?itok=Wo_QvKI6
As Luzzetti summarizes, while it is too early to reach concrete conclusions about the aggregate implications of the expiration of these benefits, this real-time data reaffirms findings from recent academic research, which found that consumer spending was likely to experience a material hit if expanded unemployment benefits were cut sharply.
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SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/beyond-benefits-cliff-wile-e-coyote-moment-us-consumer
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US DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambio
"It is important to understand how the existing provisions of the Federal Reserve Act with regard to currency issuance apply to a CBDC and whether a CBDC would have legal tender status, depending on the design."
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Is the "HYPOTHETICAL" DIGITAL CURRENCY a new USD or a new currency valid only inside the US. So, not for banking savings, nor trade outside, in other words, a new fake money to buy groceries inside the US, to cop with current recession?.
Putting in Fed words, is this “ the Fed's last ditch reflationary strategy: wiring digital money into Americans' financial apps, bypassing the reserve system entirely, and sparking an inflationary conflagration. As we said last Monday, "the two propose creating a monetary tool that they call recession insurance bonds, which draw on some of the advances in digital payments, which will be wired instantly to Americans."
And while this idea may have seemed absolutely ludicrous as recently as just one year ago, the fact that the just as ludicrous Helicopter Money is now de facto policy means that direct deposits of cash by the Fed into individual accounts is becoming increasingly probable, the only thing missing is the "digital currency" that would be used by the central bank.
IF this currency is gona serve the purpose of buying groceries, the rules of the game (its uses) has not yet been designed. But Fed explain some basic things:
There are “two propose in creating a monetary tool that they call recession insurance bonds, which draw on some of the advances in digital payments, which will be wired instantly to Americans.
Julia Coronado (one of the designer of this strategy to cope with current recession) explain the details: Congress would grant the Federal Reserve an additional tool for providing support—say, a percent of GDP [in a lump sum that would be divided equally and distributed] to households in a recession. Recession insurance bonds would be zero-coupon securities, a contingent asset of households that would basically lie in wait. The trigger could be reaching the zero lower bound on interest rates or, as economist Claudia Sahm has proposed, a 0.5 percentage point increase in the unemployment rate. The Fed would then activate the securities and deposit the funds digitally in households’ apps.
Potter (the other designer) then elucidates, "it took Congress too long to get money to people, and it’s too clunky. We need a separate infrastructure. The Fed could buy the bonds quickly without going to the private market. On March 15 they could have said interest rates are now at zero, we’re activating X amount of the bonds, and we’ll be tracking the unemployment rate—if it increases above this level, we’ll buy more. The bonds will be on the asset side of the Fed’s balance sheet; the digital dollars in people’s accounts will be on the liability side."
Julia Coronado adds: "it’s the most efficient from a macroeconomic standpoint in supporting spending and confidence. The fear of unemployment acts as an accelerant on a recession. There’s a shock—people are losing their jobs or worry about losing their jobs. They get very risk-averse. [By] getting money to consumers you can limit the depth and duration of a recession."
Simon Potter summarized : The bonds will be on the asset side of the Fed’s balance sheet; the digital dollars in people’s accounts will be on the liability side.
JC remarks: “By] getting money to consumers you can limit the depth and duration of a recession. And you could actually generate real inflation. It could be beneficial for not only avoiding negative rates but creating a more healthy interest-rate market, a more healthy yield curve.
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Mi opinión:
Ver para creer .. dijo el ciego.. y dicen que miro. Que vio, no lo sé, pero sí creo que la FE mueve montañas. Si Ud cree en ese viejito sordo que llaman Dios, pues récele y bien cerca al oído. Yo no soy creyente, pero si espero que este milagro ocurra. Si me dan la tonada del rezo, yo rezo y creeré que 2+2 = 5
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DR. FAUCI CONFIRMS "NO REASON WE CAN'T HAVE IN-PERSON VOTING": LIVE UPDATES
...Dems are not going to like this 'science'...
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LOCKDOWN RESTRICTIONS ARE A TEST TO SEE HOW MUCH TYRANNY AMERICANS WILL ACCEPT
"I would never ask the majority of people to sacrifice their liberties for my personal comfort. Anyone who does is a coward..."
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KINDERGARTNERS TO LEARN ABOUT WHITE SUPREMACY IN PA SCHOOL DISTRICT
"[Racism] happens all the time..."
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US-WORLD ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State socialis+K-, D rest in limbo
IS US plan to hit N. Korea?
SATELLITE IMAGES REVEAL NORTH KOREAN NUCLEAR REACTOR SITE "VULNERABLE" TO "EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS"
"Although the security wall around the reactor complex was not breached, the water had reached the two pump houses..."
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SALIVA TEST FOR COVID-19 WITH "LESS THAN 1 SECOND" RESULTS ENTERS TRIAL PHASE IN ISRAEL
Good news for those dreading the uncomfortable deep nasal swab method.
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US threats on CHINA are real. Since they will respond, Chances of WW3 are real.
US SENDS B-2 STEALTH BOMBERS TO 'WARN' CHINA AS PLA EXPANDS LIVE-FIRE DRILLS OFF TAIWAN
China's military conducts major drills to "safeguard sovereignty" of the island
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If Iran is attacked because ISIS terror in Syria& Iraq: Saudis, ISR & London will be too
Iran even blamed for hampering fight against ISIS in Syria & Iraq
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO ..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars & danger of WW3
-US Seizes Four Iranian Tankers, Now En Route to Houston
-Tragedy for Some, Victory for Others: Has Israel's Pull-Out Improved Life in Gaza?
-Iran Slams UAE-Israel Deal as 'Dangerous' and 'Illegitimate'
-UK Pro-Assange Campaign Slams AG Barr's Reissued Extradition Request as 'Jeopardy' for Hearing
-Turkey Says History Will Not Forgive UAE for Making Deal With Israel
-Coronavirus Live Updates: Germany Records 1,449 New Infected
-'Silenced Majority': Lara Trump Claims Polls Are 'Even More Inaccurate' Than in 2016
-‘Fortnite’ Developer Files Lawsuit Against Apple Over ‘Unlawfully’ Removing Game From App Store
- Sneak Peak Into Backroom Machinat of UAE-Israeli Peace Deal By Daria Bedenko
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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to neo-fascist regimes & terrorist imperial chaos
REBELION
Chile: Colonialismo, violencia de Estado y prisión política mapuche
BRA: Foro Social: De espacio abierto a espacio de acción Varios Aut
Ecuad: Minist d Produc anuncia descuento en cad d comida chatarra
B Sanders CVenriquecio más a los ricos y llego la hora de pagar + imp
CV: Buen negocio para multimillonarios del US. David Brooks
PAL: Los palestinos como fantasmas Gil Gertel
COL: Duque mato al 60% de los líderes sociales Himelda Ascanio
ECOL: La trampa del capitalismo verde Ernesto H. Vidal
ALC: Evoluc de las grandes empresas en Am-Lat Mariana Dondo
Perú Estallido social en Loreto César Zelada
Cult: María Teresa León: guerrillera de la cultura Carmen López
ARG: ¿De qué hablamos cuando decimos “nosotros”? A Nadra
BOL: guerra mediática contra el MAS, Evo y los bloqueos Verónica Z
Cinco elementos : TIERRA Yayo Herrero
ECON: De dónde sale el dinero que presta un banco? Agustín P
BRA: Cien mil vidas perdidas: no aceptes «la nueva normalidad»
Chile: TELARAÑAS EN LA IZQUIERDA Manuel Cabieses
COL: Investigar a Álvaro Uribe y vivir para denunciarlo Candela R
FEM: Lynn Margulis, bióloga que mostró que la coop lleva al éxito
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ALAI NET ORG
Haiti Impacto de la ocupación militar en Haití Jubileo Sur
Ecuador Inestabilidad laboral y elecciones Jaime Chuchuca S
Bolivia: ¡FUERA ÁÑEZ, ES EL GRITO! Angel Guerra
-EL ÚLTIMO PROFETA… Pedro Pierre
Costa Rica: El desalojo de líderes indígenas del Congreso N B
US: ¿Habrá elecciones en noviembre? Wim D y Walter F
COL: La Sierra Nevada de Santa Marta llora Hugo Paternina
OMS: El jefe de la OMS: otro que siembra miedo U Mazzei
Guatem DESAPARICIÓN FORZADA = TERRORISMO M Colussi
Ecuador LA CONQUISTA DE LA UNIDAD Luis Varese
BRA: Los que leímos y sentimos con Casaldáliga Oscar Soto
US: EL PEOR ENEMIGO DEL MUNDO Juan Pablo Cárdenas
VEN: Voto popular, la grasa que ‘afloja tuercas’ Ramaris Vásquez
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CROSS TALK https://www.rt.com/shows/crosstalk/
SUMMER SOLUTIONS: A DEFLATIONARY ROAD TO ABUNDANCE (E1579)
Max and Stacy chat to tech entrepreneur, Jeff Booth, author of ‘The Price of Tomorrow: Why Deflation is the Key to an Abundant Future.’ They discuss the role of technology in causing the deflation that may lead to an abundant future, if the gains are shared. They examine the situation with artificial intelligence and whether or not advances by China in that arena are the real cause behind the sudden tension between the United States and Beijing. Finally, they discuss how to prepare for central banks offering more money printing solutions for the deflation they have been fighting.
FUENTE: https://www.rt.com/shows/keiser-report/497764-jeff-booth-abundant-future/
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more business-wars from US-NATO allies
-Protest against COVID Disinformation and Social Engineering By John Manley
-Lukashenko Wins Election, but His Biggest Fight May be Yet to Come By Johanna R
-What if the Beirut Explosion Was an Attack? By South Front
-Is Biden Cognitively Impaired.. Presid Kamala Harris? By Stephen Lendman
-Ukraine Is Hovering Between New War and Economic Collapse By South Front
-Bolivia’s Perfect Storm: Pandemic, Econ Crisis, Repressi Regime By R F and F M
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DEMOCRACY NOW
Amy Goodman’ team
-Kamala Harris Slams President’s Handling of Pandemic
-Was Kamala Harris a Progressive Prosecutor? A Look at Her Time as a DA & California Attorney General
-General Strike & Blockade in Bolivia Enter Day 11 as Protesters Condemn Delayed Vote by Coup Gov’t
-Kamala Harris Her “Top Cop” Record Faces New Scrutiny Amid BLM Protests
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