lunes, 3 de agosto de 2020

AUG 2 20 ND SIT EC y POL



AUG 2  20 ND SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco


ZERO HEDGE  ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics


Since the start of 2020, 51 SPAC offerings have been completed raising $21.5 billion, up 145% from the comparable year-ago period.

The similarities with the housing bubble boom-bust are growing by the day. Not only are stocks at all time highs, to which we can now add record low yields and an all time high gold price as the 10Y real yield just dropped to an unprecedented minus 1% all time low...
See Chart:


Equity over valuation composite indicator
See Chart:


The last time we saw such a surge in SPACs? 2007.
And while the SPAC bubble burst in 2008 along with the rest of the housing/credit bubble, it has slowly recovered, and as Goldman's David Kostin writes in his latest Weekly Kickstart, SPAC capital raising has soared YTD.
See Chart:


Some statistics: since the start of 2020, 51 SPAC offerings have been completed raising $21.5 billion, up 145% from the comparable year-ago period. In 2019, 51 SPAC IPOs were completed totaling $13.2 billion and 2018 witnessed 35 offerings for $9.3 billion. SPACs have accounted for one-third of all US IPO activity since the start of 2019.
See Table:


And while by definition a SPAC is a blank-check, it comes with an embedded put option as Kostin explains:
  • First, the right to evaluate the pending purchase and elect to hold or redeem the initial investment at cost (plus accrued interest) two days before the vote.
  • Second, warrants.
The SPAC sponsor is typically compensated with a promote equal to 20% of pro forma equity and warrants.
So why the interest in SPACs?

As Goldman explains, from a capital raiser’s perspective SPACs offer companies a path to the public markets as an alternative to a traditional IPO. Two features of the SPAC process are notable: Forecasts and proceeds.

And yes, ultimately, the upside potential is a function of the sponsor’s ability to identify the target, negotiate terms, inject needed external capital, and create long-term value.

Some more statistics: Goldman analyzed 56 SPACs that completed mergers/de-SPAC transactions since January 2018. Tech and Industrials dominated the targets, followed by Energy and Financials.
See Chart:
Sector composition of 58 de-SPAC merges since Jan 2018


Now the bad news: the average SPAC underperformed both indexes during the 3, 6, and 12-months after the merger completion.
See Charts:


As shown in the chart above, the performance distribution is extremely wide, with the 75th percentile SPAC outperforming the S&P 500 by 22% while the 25th percentile transaction lagged by 69%. The comparable returns vs. Russell 2000 were from +37% to -63 %.

In other words, just like with regular IPOs, SPAC returns are a coin-toss and since they tend to underperform the broader market several months after the merger and after the initial euphoria fades one may as well just buy the SPY, which unlike a SPAC, is now actively managed by the Fed whose mandate is to never allow another market drop again.

It's also another indicator that a market top has been reached, although while in the past this would be a signal to take profits at this time - when the Fed is actively managing equity risk and making any material declines virtually impossible - this time is not only different, but the recent explosion in SPACs issuance may simply be an indicator to add on even more risk, with the Fed's blessing of course.
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Brief News on US Economics:
"...so without a sell discipline, buying bubble assets is insanely stupid."
SEE CHART:
Economy in Recession:  Negative GDP Growth
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Never before has the scale of fiscal and monetary stimulus matched the nation’s nominal output in a single quarter. 

by Joseph Carson, former chief economist at Alliance Bernstein

On March 12, I penned the article “Investors Should Brace for a Record Decline in GDP”Never did I imagine that the Q2 GDP decline would be nearly 5X times the previous record drop of 7.2% in Nominal GDP in Q4 2008

Here’s a few observations.
First, Q2 Nominal GDP was estimated at $19.4 trillion annualized, a drop of over $2 trillion from Q1 level of $21.5 trillion.  ..  Never before has the scale of fiscal and monetary stimulus matched the nation’s nominal output in a single quarter. 

Second, Q2 nominal consumer spending declined at an annualized rate of 35.8%. But the actual decline is much worse.  .  In other words, BEA methodology assumes people made their rent payments on time and in full. Yet, reports show that more than one-third of renters skipped paying part or all of their rent in Q2

Third, Based on preliminary data the market capitalization of domestic companies increased by $7 trillion in Q2 while nominal GDP, measured quarterly, declined by approximately $500 billion
SEE CHART:
Gdp VS. S&P 500
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... Indeed, the sharp moves higher in breakevens and precious metals suggest that markets are considering the possibility.
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 If Mr. Friedman was correct, then isn't the risk of higher inflation greater than it’s ever been, too? Indeed, the sharp moves higher in break evens and precious metals suggest that markets are considering the possibility.
SEE CHART:
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It's reasonable to suspect that any deal for Microsoft to buy TikTok would require dependable assurances from the administration that Microsoft would be protected...
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...millions of small businesses permanently destroyed, tens of millions of households wiped-out financially and the vicious daisy chain ofdelinquencies, deferrals and defaultsjust beginning to rip
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"The bank will closely examine the information that came to light on Friday and the fact pattern from 2013..."
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Physical delivery on the largest gold futures exchange in the world, the COMEX in New York, has reached all time highs this year. Usually, delivery is “negligible.” What has changed?

Bloomberg reports that traders on Thursday declared their intent to deliver 3.27 million ounces (over 100 tonnes) of gold against the August Comex contract, the largest daily notice in bourse data going back to 1994...
SEE CHART:
COMEX  Gold Delivery  (Tons)


While millions of ounces of gold trade on the futures market every day, typically only a tiny fraction of that goes to delivery. But in recent months, huge amounts of bullion have flowed into New York and the COMEX has seen record deliveries.
See Chart:


As Jan Nieuwenhuijs of Voima Gold explains, three elements cause physical delivery on the COMEX to have reached record highs this year:

1.       strong demand for futures in New York,
2.       a persisting spread between the price of futures in New York versus spot gold in London,
3.       and arbitrage.

Physical delivery on the largest gold futures exchange in the world, the COMEX in New York, has reached all time highs this year. Usually, delivery is “negligible.” What has changed?
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US  DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambio


On August 21 the GOP will hold its convention, without the press...
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We are now experiencing a dystopian amalgamation of the worst of Huxley and Orwell's imaginations...


“A really efficient totalitarian state would be one in which the all-powerful executive of political bosses and their army of managers control a population of slaves who do not have to be coerced, because they love their servitude.”
- Aldous Huxley, Brave New World

“Every record has been destroyed or falsified, every book rewritten, every picture has been repainted, every statue and street building has been renamed, every date has been altered. And the process is continuing day by day and minute by minute. History has stopped. Nothing exists except an endless present in which the Party is always right.” 
- George Orwell, 1984

Debate has raged over the decades whether Huxley’s or Orwell’s dystopian vision of the future would be more accurate. Both visions required the successful use of propaganda by those in power to achieve their agendas. Huxley wrote a letter to Orwell after reading 1984 in 1949, shortly before Orwell’s death. His conclusion was as follows:

“Within the next generation I believe that the world’s rulers will discover that infant conditioning and narco-hypnosis are more efficient, as instruments of government, than clubs and prisons, and that the lust for power can be just as completely satisfied by suggesting people into loving their servitude as by flogging and kicking them into obedience. In other words, I feel that the nightmare of Nineteen Eighty-Four is destined to modulate into the nightmare o f a world having more resemblance to that which I imagined in Brave New World. The change will be brought about as a result of a felt need for increased efficiency. Meanwhile, of course, there may be a large-scale biological and atomic war—in which case we shall have nightmares of other and scarcely  imaginable kinds.”

Since 9/11, the United States has unequivocally moved in the direction of Orwell’s 1984 visionWe are now experiencing a dystopian amalgamation of the worst of both novels. Virtually every conspiracy theory ridiculed by the corporate controlled media pundits, captured academics, and government apparatchiks over the last few decades have proven to be accurate and true.

But very few are able to discern the truth because The Party/Invisible Government/Deep State has been hugely successful in utilizing propaganda and public education indoctrination to dumb down and manipulate the minds of the masses into believing whatever they are told by their masters

The complete success of this mass psychological conditioning has been on display for the last four months, as the majority have come to love their enslavement and servitude based upon the inept and hysterical misinformation propagated by medical “experts”, government bureaucrats, corrupt politicians, and the fake news media complex

Continue reading  at:
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“Biden shouldn’t feel obligated to throw Trump a lifeline by granting him any debates at all. This is not a normal presidential election and Trump is not a legitimate candidate...”
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"Congress would grant the Federal Reserve an additional tool for providing support. The Fed would then activate the securities and deposit the funds digitally in households’ apps."
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NO valid pretext for WW3.. it has to be the same magnitude as 9/11  & better o/c
Military has called off what was an extensive 40-hour search...
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….I said better of curse because 9/11 include pre-fabricated implosions and the assumed authors , the Saudi jijadist , were found alive & Saudi royal family were left to escape the day after. Read Global Research:  9/11 News Coverage: How 36 Reporters Brought Us the Twin Towers’ Explosive Demolition on 9/11 By Ted Walter and Prof. Graeme MacQueen.  Profesor Michel Chossudovsky wrote also 2 reports on this regard  (same source).
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US-WORLD  ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State socialis+K-, D rest in limbo



The shift suggests China will substitute some imports, including technology, with local supply, and reorient some exports to domestic markets. In other words, global trade is likely to remain sluggish due to Xi’s pivot inward.
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The shift suggests China will substitute some imports, including technology, with local supply, and reorient some exports to domestic markets. In other words, global trade, which is already contracting, is likely to remain sluggish due to Xi’s pivot inward.  

This isn’t good news for countries that sell to China, including Germany and most emerging markets. The chart below shows how closely correlated China and U.S. imports are to the performance of global stocks.
SEE Chart

2. Dollar’s decline is about to slow down
See Chart:


3. Volatility may pick up in August with a looming fiscal cliff in the U.S.
CHART:  BLOCKED
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They gona lose sense of NATION
"Where you slept last night is where you'll need to stay for the next six weeks."
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Iran will expand its nuclear program,vows Khamenei, and rejects offer of talks with US administration.
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO  ..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars & danger of WW3

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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to neo-fascist regimes & terrorist imperial chaos

VIENTO SUR

La pandemia ha desorganizado profundamente la economía mundial. La lógica de esta crisis es inédita y la manera de salir de ella dependerá de factores no solo económicos, sino también sanitarios y sociopolíticos.
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La carrera de las predicciones está en marcha: el factor incertidumbre y los grandes interrogantes son la tónica compartida. A las incertezas sobre pandemia sesumar otras que ya estaban muy presentes en la sociedad –entre ellas- los retos ambientales de la emergencia climática.
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Mientras que agentes federales anónimos continúan su campaña de ataques violentos e ilegales contra los manifestantes de Black Lives Matter (BLM) en Portland, Oregón, provocando una reacción cada vez más firme, el presidente Trump declaró que enviará más agentes federales.
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RT EN ESPAÑOL

TikTok: Washington amenazo a China, o vende su app al US o este la bloquea.  https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/361967-washington-afirma-tiktok-china-vendida-bloqueada . El tit x tat chino : Microsoft será nacionalizado. Esto forzó la fusión y el Ado
VIDEO: La Crew Dragon con dos astronautas de la NASA amariza en el golfo de México   https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/361904-astronautas-nasa-regresar-tierra-crew-dragon
TikTok y Microsolf son una fusión con proyecto global y en US aplastaran a Facebook.  https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/361964-empresa-matriz-tiktok-enfrentar-dificultades-volverse-global-facebook-manchar.  Lea Sputnik
Un 'padre del año' asesina a toda su familia y al perro antes de suicidarse.   https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/361920-padre-asesina-familia-perro.  En el US puede ocurrir cualquier barbarie. El CV, las guerras y el crash Ec destruyen famil enteras Pero en esta crisis también ocurre lo inverso: actos de humanismo increíbles en el US.
U. habría presionado al FMI sobre Argentina para terminar con Maduro en Venezuela   https://actualidad.rt.com/video/361969-eeuu-habria-presionado-fmi-argentina
El Pentágono retira casi 12.000 tropas de Alemania   https://actualidad.rt.com/video/361927-pentagono-retirar-12000-tropas-alemania
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VOLTAIRE NET ORG   https://www.voltairenet.org/en


Yesterday they block me this INFO. Hoy lo Logre
  
Voltaire Network 

At a Senate Foreign Affairs Committee hearing on 30 July 2020, Senator Lindsey Graham questioned Secretary of State Mike Pompeo about a US company that has just signed an agreement with the "Autonomous Administration" of Northeast Syria (YPG) for the exploitation of oil fields and the supply of refineries.

The Secretary of State confirmed that the negotiation of the agreement had taken longer than expected and that he was OK with the deal. Production is expected to start at 60,000 barrels/day and could quickly rise to 380,000 barrels/day.

The "Autonomous Administration" is a fiction set up by the Pentagon in northeastern Syria, which is being run by a Kurdish faction. Neither Damascus nor Ankara have made any comments.

Crescent Energy Services, which penned the agreement, is a CIA front registered in the tax haven of Delaware, but based in Louisiana.

According to our sources, the profits of the Autonomous Administration will be divided in two: half for itself, and the other half for the CIA, which will use the money to finance its covert operations throughout the world without having to submit a budget request to Congress.
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We speak to Julian Assange’s former lawyer Geoffrey Robertson QC. He discusses the new indictments being brought by the US against WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange and why they have been brought at such a late stage, why the US is pushing so hard for his extradition, his belief that Julian Assange would get 50 years in prison if he is extradited to the US, alleged bugging of Ecuador’s embassy in London by the US to spy on Assange, his limited access to lawyers inside Belmarsh Prison and much more! [No hay aqui nada Nuevo,  pero vale la atencion en Assange ]
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more business-wars from US-NATO  allies


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