AUG 18 20 ND SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco
ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics
THE ROAD TO INFLATION IN POST-COVID TIMES
The young generations (Millennials and Gen-Z-ers), who contribute most to society based on productivity measure, pay more than anyone else and still face no access to capital to buy home and live properly.
Submitted by Christopher Dembik, head of Macro Analysis at Saxo Bank
Summary: No theme is more important in the macroeconomic space than inflation right now. All the clients we are talking to share their worries about inflation risk and are looking for investment strategies to hedge against inflation. In recent weeks, we have seen a series of upside surprises in inflation data, that mostly reflect the big imbalances in the economy following the COVID recession and some data noise.
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There is a large consensus among economists that the initial COVID-19 shock is a massive disinflationary impulse. However, there is no consensus regarding what may come next, let’s say in two or three years. Some argue that the massive surge in money supply will continue to inflate asset bubbles in real estate and in the stock market, as it has been the case since the GFC, but will have little impact on the real economy as a whole due to the persistent decline of both the money multiplier (the amount of money that banks generate with each dollar of reserves) and money velocity (the rate at which money is exchanged in the economy).
Others fear that in the long run the boom in money supply combined with a regime shift characterized by rising protectionism and more redistributive policies to fight against inequalities will create lasting inflationary pressures and push inflation above the 2% threshold on a sustainable basis. This view is reinforced by the fact that inflation has always been responsive to sudden regime shifts in the past.
SEE CHART:
US . M2 Money Supply
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/M2%20money%20supply_0.jpg?itok=mFXZOC84
Most economists consider that the most powerful leading indicator for inflation is M2 money supply. It is fair to say that we have never experienced in the past, not even during the 1970’s stagflation, money supply growth as high as it is today in COVID-times, skyrocketing at more than 20% YoY.
We are not there yet. Recent upside surprises in inflation data, such as the surge in U.S. July CPI or the boom in U.S. unit labor cost in Q2, are not linked to the expected regime shift.
It’s all relative. In a very insightful interview to MACROVoices (see here), Vincent Deluard, macro strategist for StoneX Group Inc., proposes another way to approach the inflation problem. He rightly argues that inflation has not disappeared from the real economy over the past years, it is still here, but it cannot be captured by CPI as it measures the average inflation in the economy. Actually, focusing on CPI results in masquering the generational inequality problem:
“The great moderation of inflation in the past two decades has been the result of two offsetting forces. On the one hand, the cost of medical insurance premia, college tuitions, rents in major urban areas, and childcare has exploded. On the other hand, the cost of most of the things which can be bought at Walmart (and are generally manufactured overseas) has collapsed.
This had led to two very different experiences for inflation: retired boomers, who generally own their homes, live in the small towns and suburbs, shop at superstores and get their medical expenses paid by Medicare have experienced deflation (…). Conversely, new jobs openings for younger generations have been almost exclusively created in major urban areas where costs have exploded”.
Deluard draws two main conclusions:
· Generational inequality is prevalent in society.
· The level of inflation strongly depends on which age group you belong to.
Said differently, the young generations (Millennials and Gen-Z-ers), who contribute most to society based on productivity measure, pay more than anyone else and still face no access to capital to buy home and live properly.
Inflation is always and everywhere a political phenomenon. Its evolution will mostly depend on future policy decisions that will be taken after the crisis. We think that redistributive policies and other stimulus programs will play a key role to create favorable conditions to an inflation episode once the recovery will start to materialize, let’s say in a 12-18 month horizon.
If we combine redistributive policies with the emerging trend of supply chain relocation and rising protectionism, we have a almost perfect inflation narrative for 2022 and beyond that can (temporarily) overwhelms deflationary forces driven by demographics and technology.
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SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/road-inflation-post-covid-times
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GOLD JUMPS, DOLLAR DUMPS AS S&P ENDS "SHORTEST BEAR MARKET IN HISTORY"
...and just like that, it was all over. The S&P 500 ripped up to new record intraday highs at the open this morning - erasing all signs of the dismal economic reality - before plunging (no immediate catalyst for that drop) which was then let with the now ubiquitous armada of liquidity dip-buyers, lifting it back to record highs...BUT the late-day weakness almost left the S&P back below its record close at 3386.15, but the last second saved it...
See Chart:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2020-08-18_13-00-44.jpg?itok=SfvNvc-3
Of course, the S&P's resurgence to record highs "proves" that everything will be awesome because markets are "forward-looking" things, right? Just Like in February 2020 and October 2007? All of which is distracting from this shitshow...
See Chart:
S&P 500 vs, S&P Consensus
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfm8981_0.jpg?itok=vpOX3KaC
And then there's this...
See Chart:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfm143F.jpg?itok=q5kdK3cM
On the day, Nasdaq dramatically outperformed as Small Caps lagged (the un-rotation rotation is over)...
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2020-08-18_13-00-02.jpg?itok=WKx90wTX
And Money Flow drastically diverged lower as stocks rebounded...
See Chart:
SPY PRICE vs, MONEY FLOW
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfm20F4_0.jpg?itok=2y46I7xA
Treasuries were bid today with the long-end outperforming (30Y -4bps, 2Y -1bps)...
See Chart:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfmBBC4.jpg?itok=tjyNp-Rr
The B-dollar index was monkey-hammered for the 5th day in a row to a new cycle low today, accelerating lower after it appears a deal is imminent in Washington over stimulus (and that means another $1.5 trillion in debt)...
See Chart:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfm1B20.jpg?itok=s5_s11O_
Gold managed solid gains on the day, with futures back above $2,000 (but not before the standard pukefest slam effort)...
See Chart:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2020-08-18_12-31-02.jpg?itok=C5W5D-qy
Silver followed a similar path, with futures back above $28...
Finally, Nasdaq Breadth is diverging (bearishly) from the index.
As Bloomberg notes, the share of members trading above their key 50-day moving average has been on the decline since peaking at 99% at the end of May. This means that the largest of the large-cap tech stocks are driving the momentum, which could be an ominous sign if they become too overvalued. It didn't end well the last time.
See Chart:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfm73BD.jpg?itok=OKEvwaO7
Mainstream media seems oddly quiet about the dramatic slowdown in the rise of US COVID cases...
See Chart:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfm2D48.jpg?itok=4Lwt55SN
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SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/gold-jumps-dollar-dumps-sp-ends-shortest-bear-market-history
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OUR FALSE BIZARRE ECONOMY RENDERS GDP USELESS (PART 1)
GDP growth is akin to 'Magic Illusion 101'...
Authored by Bruce Wilds via Advancing Time blog,
We may be getting to the place where more people are beginning to realize the illusion created from printing and pouring trillions of dollar haphazardly into the economy can't last.
Still, anyone looking at the coming gross domestic product (GDP) figures as an indication of how the economy is faring is barking up the wrong tree.
GDP growth is akin to 'Magic Illusion 101'
The original formula for measuring economic growth was full of flaws but over the years we have allowed numbers that mean "nothing" to seep into how the GDP is calculated all in an effort to create the illusion of growth.
The number we are spoon-fed and await with such glee has little to do with real growth but most likely mirrors or is merely a reflection of monetary pumping. The GDP number fails to highlight a slew of important factors that feed directly into our standard of living and the health of our economy, such as;
· How wealth is distributed and inequality
· Taxation and how it affects both the economy and society
· Non-market transactions like volunteer and work conducted "off the books"
· Underground economy, illegal trade, and many cash transactions.
· Asset value, meaning GDP ignores changes in what things are worth
· The non-monetary part of the economy, bartering of goods and services
· Distinguishing between production that is subsidized and that which is not
· Quality improvements and new products
· What is being produced, bombs or butter and a better-educated populace
· The sustainability of growth or misallocation of either capital or resources
· Cross-border parity and changes in currency value
· External factors such as negative environmental effects or the health of the people
Bottom-line in the words of the man creating this indicator of economic growth,"The GDP framework is more or less an empty abstraction devoid of any link to the real world."
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SOURCE : https://www.zerohedge.com/political/our-false-bizarre-economy-renders-gdp-useless-part-1
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#Orange ManBad... "We have to vote for Joe Biden like our lives depend on it"
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US DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambio
JUST 12 US BILLIONAIRES NOW OWN MORE THAN $1 TRILLION IN COMBINED WEALTH
"The total wealth of the Oligarchic Dozen is greater than the GDP of Belgium and Austria combined."
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ELECTION ROULETTE: HOW TO RIG AN OUTCOME
Fact of the matter is that cheating on mail ballots is child’s play. Here, off the top of my head, are four ways to monkey with the vote...
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NEW TRUMP AD QUESTIONS BIDEN'S MENTAL FACULTIES WITH SAD 'BEFORE & AFTER' CLIPS
Already being dubbed the most brutal ad of the 2020 election...
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THEY'RE ANGRY, NOT STUPID! WHY TRUMP IS LIKELY TO WIN AGAIN
Highlighting what’s wrong with him is futile; his supporters didn’t elect him because they mistook him for a competent administrator or a decent man. They’re angry, not stupid...
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YES, they were angry as they’re now, but not stupid. What is stupid is believing that COVIT-19 is his fault. We step on the trap of our own false ‘freedom’ when we didin’t take precausion. The lock down are OK but not for long periods. IF happens it destroy our sense of ‘social being’ : we are part of open systems & we need to communicate with other social being. A esta relacion entre el ser humano y su contexto se llama acoplamiento estructural (NL) y el biólogo chileno Maturana que trabajo con el alemán NL creo el termino ‘autopoiesis ‘ para indicar que las células internas de órgano vivo se auto-reproducen a si mismas sin necesidad del contexto externo. A esto le llamo “clausura autopoietica” o de auto-creatividad. Y aplico su concepto a la teoría de sistemas . Todo sistema es un conjunto de elementos que trabajan para un objetivo común. Cuando las partes de un todo coordinan acciones pueden crear una fuerza especial que se llama sinergia, (es el momento en que el todo es mas grande que sumatoria de las energías de sus partes). Pero la parte para crear su propia energía, necesita cerrarse. Yes y es cuando se cierran que las partes desarrolla auto-creatividad (autopoiesis). Esto explica la auto-reproducción de las células o genes en cada una de las partes. Ejemplo: Las escuelas se cierran y allí los maestros y alumnos recrean su background frente a un plan pre-establecido que se llama currículo. Y el aula cerrada crea internamente nuevas relaciones entre los alumnos y de estos con su maestro. Nace allí una dinámica que apunta a la self-regulacion y al balance interno que es lo que crea la unidad de las diferencias. Podrían los alumnos estar más de 2 horas con el mismo maestro, difícil, por eso se alternan los maestros y después de 2 horas van al auditórium a practicar y escuchar música Para eso se cierra la escuela, para que los alumnos desarrollen su propio creatividad, su propio ser. Lo mismo ocurre con otras partes de un sistema y todas esas partes necesitan cerrarse. A esto se llama “clausura autopoietica o auto-creatividad, o simplemente autopoiesis, como le llamo Maturana. Esto explica la necesidad de los lockdowns en tiempos de pandemia pero solo por tiempos cortos. Los tiempos largos destruyen el ser social y la psicologia de una persona y partes claves de la economía de una nación. Esto ocurre cuando el sistema de salud esta privatizado y hay quienes se enriquecen con la pandemia.
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"THIS WAR CAN'T BE CIVIL": BERKELEY COLUMNIST CALLS FOR "VIOLENT RESISTANCE"
We defeat hateful and violent views like Alqahtani by maintaining the principles that define us... and distinguish us from those who would embrace mob rule...
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We expect that the theater over the latest round of fiscal stimulus is almost over and within days if not hours, Dems and Republicans will announce a "deal" for a new fiscal stimulus round of just around $1.5 trillion
Just moments ago we said that with both parties set to benefit from reaching a deal on a new, 5th fiscal stimulus round, it is likely just a matter of (very brief) time before Democrats and Republicans reach a compromise agreement splitting the difference between the smaller - HEALS act - proposed by the Republicans which tops out at $1.1 trillion, and the $3.4 trillion HEROES act proposed by the Democrats.
SEE CHART:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/HEALS%20vs%20HEROES_4.jpg?itok=QAZ-dR-t
As a further reminder, absent a new fiscal stimulus, US compensation would collapse from its recent sugar high, to levels last seen two years ago which would crater US GDP with just weeks to go before the November election.
See Chart:
We expect that the theater over the latest round of fiscal stimulus is almost over and within days if not hours, Dems and Republicans will announce a "deal" for a new fiscal stimulus round of just around $1.5 trillion, one which the Treasury has already largely factored into its debt budgeting needs for the current and coming quarter.
See Chart:
It also means that the Fed will now have to aggressively ramp up its QE (and find a good excuse for doing so), which currently is at $80BN per month, and would be insufficient to monetize the burst in new issuance that would fund any new stimulus deal.
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"BLACK PEOPLE DON'T HAVE TO VOTE DEMOCRAT" - BALTIMORE REPUBLICAN UNVEILS VIRAL CAMPAIGN AD
"Democrats don't want you to see this."
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TRUMP CAMPAIGN HAS DEEPER POCKETS, OUTPACES BIDEN FUNDRAISING IN JULY
Biden’s budget was almost 20% below Trump's at $237 million, of which almost $170 million had been spent...
As Statista's Katharina Buchholz details below, according to the Federal Election Commission, Trump’s campaign had collected almost $343 million and had spent $279 million.
SEE CHART:
https://www.statista.com/chart/22618/presidential-campaign-fundraising-2020/
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WATCH DNC NIGHT 2 LIVE: CAN BILL CLINTON AND AOC SALVAGE NIGHT 1 RATINGS DISASTER?
Pre-recorded madness!
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“FREEFALL in the coming weeks” IS OPIUM DREAM. He has the machine, it wont hapen
Trump's attempt to single-handedly stimulate the economy until the elections - with Democrats more than happy to see the economy go into freefall in the coming weeks - is failing.
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Another ‘opium dream’: TX gober don’t rule other states. Police who-comt crimes= jail
TX GOVERNOR PROPOSAL WOULD FINANCIALLY PUNISH CITIES THAT DEFUND POLICE
"ities that endanger residents by reducing law enforcement should not then be able to turn around and go back and get more property tax dollars."
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Police who committed crimes on disarmed people is not ‘law enforcement’.it is fostering illegal violence in America. Those police must be punish at least w-Jail We don’t want police stations be burned & bombed as happens in Mexico. We don’t want ‘mafia-snipers’ killing innocent policemen. It could happen here too.
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STUDENTS CLAIM 'MERIT'-CRITERIA "POSSESS INHERENT BIAS"
"...upholding a nonexistent meritocracy are perpetuating the discriminatory status quo by failing to acknowledge the systemic inequities facing BIPOC..."
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US-WORLD ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State socialis+K-, D rest in limbo
AFTER NEARLY 150 DAYS OF LOCKDOWN, ARGENTINA'S COVID-19 OUTBREAK IS DEADLIER THAN EVER
Total deaths in Argentina have now surpassed 5,000 since the pandemic began
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HERE'S HOW 2020 COMPARES WITH THE GREAT DEPRESSION
The biggest difference between these two eras – and this is the thing that will be our downfall – is that we are now a nation of consumers instead of producers...
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO ..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars & danger of WW3
- Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Snubs Biden, Endorses Bernie Sanders
“I hereby second the nomination for Senator Bernard Sanders of Vermont for President of the United States of America” Our Nation need a 3rd option. Come on Bernie, support AOC and register the 3rd option: AMERICAN SOCIALIST FRONT Bernie you have to create the INSTRUMENT FOR A REVOLUTION THAT IS ALREADY IN PROCESS.
Indian Wakes Up to a 'Dark Morning' as Clouds, Breeze & Heavy Rain Take Over Delhi
- EU Commissioner Thierry Breton Says Sanctions Will Be Reinforced Against Belarus
- Dems Officially Nominate Biden for President at Convention
- PAL Should Stick With UAE to Regain Global Standing Despite Fury Over Israel Deal
-COVID-19 Live Updates: Over 250,000 New Infected Confirmed Over Past 24 Hours
- How Local Arab Uprising in Northeast Syria May Wipe US Forces & Their SDF Proxies Out of the Reg
- Russian Investigative Committee Opens Case Over Death of Russian General in Syria
Si te matan un general, tu obligación es liquidar por lo menos 2 de ellos: War Law
- US Police Increase Security Patrols Around Russia's Consulate General in New York
- Militants Continue Shelling Settlements in Syria's Northern Provinces, Says RU
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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to neo-fascist regimes & terrorist imperial chaos
REBELION
¿Qué pasa si Assange muere en prisión británica? Tareq Haddad
Muchas embajadas britanicas del mundo serian quemadas
PAL-Or P: PRESAGIOS LIBANESES Prabhat Patnaik
Ent a Mike Davis “EL MONSTRUO YA ESTÁ AQUÍ” Josefina M
África: Rutas de personas migrantes y ref: travesía mortífera E LL
US: ¿Por qué el conflicto capitalismo-democrac? Richard Wolff
Opin: Cómo las pantallas perjudican el cerebro de nuestros hijos
Perú VIZCARRA HACIA LA VÍA REPRESIVA César Zelada
ALC: Indigenizar la política en Chile y Suramérica A Kogan
Guatem Como un enorme elefante blanco Ilka Oliva Corado
Cultura: reflexiones sobre el marxismo de nuestro tiempo AP
- Milagro en Baviera, poetas tomó el poder y su dramático final MC
ARG: A 150 días de aislamiento obligatorio Mario Hernandez
BOL: A LA SOMBRA DEL CAOS Claudia Espinoza
ECON: SOMBRAS Y LUCES DE LA GLOBALIZACIÓN Antonio Lorca
- Brasil se doblega en la disputa EEUU-China? Raúl Zibechi
China : Tiempos difíciles para las militantes feministas Margot C
Chile: LA CAÍDA DE LOS HÉROES Consuelo Ferrer
Opin: LA LIBERTAD Y LA PANDEMIA José Pablo Feinmann
US: El rescate de Estados Unidos David Brooks
US: FRACASA OFENSIVA USA CONTRA IRÁN Pablo Jofré L
VEN: VIDA MISERABLE, LA CRISIS COTIDIANA H Márquez
Mund: Los últimos estertores de la Revolución Cultural FP
Libano Desentrañando el laberinto libanés Leandro Albani
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ALAI NET ORG
US- México Democracias liberales: narco-estados José Luis A
Opin: LA GUERRA Y LA PESTE Juan Chaneton
Honduras Caso Guapinol: vergonzosas resoluciones judiciales GT
Chile ¿Otro partido, o millones de voces? Manuel Cabieses
- EL VERDADERO ENEMIGO Pascualina Curcio
BOL: Bolivia, ¿elecciones para perpetuar el Golpe de Estado? O I
-Capitalismo en crisis y la 4ª revolución industrial Juan Danell
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INFORMATION CLEARING HOUSE
Deep on the US political crisis: neofascism & internal conflicts that favor WW3
US Snapback From Humiliation By Finian Cunningham
Capital Punishment By Paul Edwards
Venezuela and Trump’s Irrational Electoral Policy By Jorge Arreaza
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CROSS TALK https://www.rt.com/shows/crosstalk/
US lawmakers target Nord Stream 2
Lawmakers in the United States are ramping up their threats against the construction of the controversial Nord Stream 2 pipeline. The Nord Stream 2, owned by Russian energy giant Gazprom, will carry natural gas from Russia to Germany.
SOURCE: https://www.rt.com/shows/boom-bust/498322-us-lawmakers-target-nord-stream2/
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more business-wars from US-NATO allies
- Trump or Biden: Any Difference for the Global South? By Ajamu Baraka,
- The Hunger Crisis in Guatemala By Yanis Iqbal,
- Interpreting the UAE/Israel Agreement on Suspending Annexation By R Falk
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DEMOCRACY NOW
Amy Goodman’ team
Julián Castro Ran for President on a Police Reform Platform But Wasn’t Invited to Give DNC Address
Fight for Voting Rights Builds on Centuries of Struggle Led by Black Women
“His Only Preexisting Condition Was Trusting Trump”: Daughter Speaks at DNC After Dad Dies of COVID
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