Nueva Democracia: AUG 23 20 ND SIT EC y POL

AUG 23 20 ND SIT EC y POL

ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco

ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS

Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics

US DEFAULT BOMB GOES OFF: 2020 WILL HAVE A RECORD NUMBER OF LARGE CORPORATE BANKRUPTCIES

"It pains me to say this,

but bankruptcy is a growth industry in America"

According to FT calculations, as of August 17, a record 45 companies each with more than $1 billion in assets has filed for Chapter 11 this year; this compares with 38 for the same period of 2009 during the depths of the financial crisis and is more than double last year’s figure of 18 over the comparable period.

See Chart:

CV-19 triggers a record wave of US Corporations Bankruptcies

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/FT%20bankruptcies.jpg?itok=UyPSvKJQ

In total, 157 companies with liabilities over $50 million have filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy this year and as we warned several months ago, many more are coming.

See Chart:

157 companies with liabilities of more than 50 m have filed bankruptcy this year

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/157%20bankruptcies%20record.jpg?itok=RXWmkqdb

"We are in the first innings of this bankruptcy cycle. It will spread far across industries as we get deeper into the crisis. It’s going to be a bumpy ride," said Ben Schlafman, chief operating officer at New Generation Research.

Meanwhile, with the US economy driving right over the fiscal cliff as Congress failed to extend emergency covid benefits, sending spending by those receiving Unemployment Insurance sharply lower...

See Chart:

The change in total car spending growth for UI recipients vs. all others

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/spending%20by%20income%20bofa_1.jpg?itok=hQ985FqJ

.. and millions of Americans about to lose their job (again), a new default wave is just waiting to be unleashed.

For now, the brunt of the default wave has been felt by oil and gas companies as low (and on one historic occasion, negative) crude prices crippled dozens of businesses. There have been 33 filings to date according to the Oil Patch Bankruptcy Monitor from Haynes and Boone, including Chesapeake, Whiting Petroleum and Diamond Offshore Drilling. There were only 14 last year.

See Chart:

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/haynes%20energy%20defaults.jpg?itok=5t2Zt6R_

Some of the most iconic names that have filed this year include Neiman Marcus, which struggled for years with a heavy debt burden from its 2005 leveraged buyout by TPG and Warburg Pincus, and which finally filed for bankruptcy in May with liabilities of $6.7bn. JCPenney, also saddled with billions in debt, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in May. Brooks Brothers, the venerable suit retailer that once counted Abraham Lincoln and John F Kennedy among its clients, did the same in July.

See Charts:

Energy and retail companies have been hit hard this year

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/default%20this%20year.jpg?itok=I7vTcSgM

"It pains me to say this, but bankruptcy is a growth industry in America," New Generation’s Schlafman dismally concluded.

….

SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-default-bomb-goes-2020-will-have-record-number-large-corporate-bankruptcies

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FOUR REASONS WHY MORGAN STANLEY BELIEVES THE COVID RECESSION TRIGGERED A STRUCTURAL SHIFT TOWARD HIGHER INFLATION

"When we look back at 2020, it may well be that the most important structural change that COVID-19 gave rise to from a macro perspective will be this structural shift towards higher inflation."

There are "four pillars" to the bank's inflation thesis:

#1 – The V-shaped recovery: A key part of why MS expects inflation to emerge is because it anticipates a sharper but shorter recession. At its core, this recession was triggered by an exogenous shock in the form of a public health crisis.

#2 – The policy response is very different… According to Morgan Stanley, "the policy response also matters in shaping the growth and inflation outlook and it has been timely, sizeable and coordinated (both monetary and fiscal easing)." The fiscal response in particular has been far more aggressive and quicker because, as the chief economist amusingly puts it "the recession is nobody’s fault" [ So no way to accuse China-RU.. that is very sad .. and fanny too ]

...and the use of active fiscal policy is here to stay: Next, the MS economist writes that "policy-makers were increasingly concerned about rising inequality and they recognised that monetary policy was a blunt tool which is not able to address the distributional effects", if only they could recognize that their policies actually accelerated this rising inequality.

Hence, the focus on unemployment and impact on lower-income households will mean that expansionary policies will remain in place for longer. Policy efforts to address inequality, and this we do not disagree with "will impart an inflationary impulse, particularly if the mix is skewed towards transfers to households."

#3 – Risk of scrutiny of the interplay between tech, trade and titans will persist: Policy-makers’ "focus on inequality" will also mean that efforts to restrain trade could continue while there are risks of increased scrutiny of tech and titans. Trade tension is one such example.. However, as the interplay between this trio of tech, trade and titans has been a key driving force of disinflation in the past 30 years, disentangling them will also lead to a shift in the inflation dynamics.

#4 – Central banks are doubling down: on their commitment to achieving their inflation goals." The Fed is already emphasizing the symmetry of its 2%Y inflation goal (meaning after its September review, the Fed will go all-in on further debasing the dollar).

As Ahya summarizes, "this confluence of factors has already led to a very different outcome for US inflation breakevens. They did not decline to the levels seen post the GFC and have also rebounded in a quicker manner to pre-COVID-19 levels." Of course, one can argue - as we did - that as a placeholder between nominal and real rates, they are merely reflecting the record chasm that has emerged as traders fear to push nominal yields below zero in a time of YCC, BUT face no such constraints when it comes to real rates.

SEE CHART:

10Y Yield, 10Y Breakeven and 10Y Nominal Yield

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/10Y%20yield%20nominal_0.jpg?itok=SCLpkwp0

In any event, Morgan Stanley still - correctly - expects additional fiscal accommodation in the form of another fiscal package (especially since the current one has already ended and the result is a sharp drop in spending by those on UI).

On monetary policy, the bank's chief US economist Ellen Zentner expects the FOMC to codify this and update its framework at the September FOMC meeting, which then lays the groundwork for the FOMC to adopt forward guidance in the FOMC statement at the December meeting. "BOTH THESE FACTORS SHOULD FURTHER BOLSTER THE CASE FOR INFLATION" according to Ahya.

….

SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/four-reasons-why-morgan-stanley-believes-covid-recession-triggered-structural-shift-toward

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THE BIG LIE & THE ROBINHOOD RALLY [A Pro Biden Article? ]

...manias generally don’t end well.

Authored by Kevin Duffy via LewRockwell.com,

As cities burn and statues topple, the Nasdaq races to all-time highs. As unemployment explodes to levels not seen since the 1930s, gambling on dicey stocks soars. As private property becomes less secure, titles to property are bid higher. As businesses struggle to reopen, it’s business as usual for the great bull market in financial assets.

If the statisticians at the CDC are to be believed, 0.01% of the U.S. civilian labor force has died of the coronavirus in 2020. For a risk that compares to driving an automobile, much of the population was scared out of their wits and a third of the economy put on life support.

The Big Lie

Official narratives have proven far more contagious (and lethal) this year than any virus, and the supporting lies keep getting bigger.

To deal with the economic mess, only top-down government solutions saw the light of day, this time at a price tag of over $5 trillion in borrowed and printed money (with plenty more on the way).

See Chart:

Rep plan already already exp: 1.1 T; passed 3.2 trillion vs Dem 3.4 Trill posted

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/1218.jpg?itok=4rhSHvAK

Speculation took off, especially among younger investors. Robinhood, favored by millennials, added 3 million accounts in the first quarter alone. (Charles Schwab has 14 million accounts in total.)

Tempting the investment gods, CNBC flattered youth and mocked experience:

See Chart:

S&P 500 vs. Daily Online Brokerage Trades

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/1220-620x377.jpg?itok=mafasdhF

Of course, amateur hour at the casino has a silver lining. Experienced poker players salivate when the patsies show up.

….

SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/big-lie-robinhood-rally

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US DOMESTIC POLITICS

Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambio

Police brutal repression Agst BLM continues, BLM is not a terror org as Gov described

ANOTHER NYC 'WAR ZONE' WEEKEND: OVER 30 SHOT, MANY OF THEM BYSTANDERS, IN VIOLENCE REMINISCENT OF 1980S

In June the NYPD disbanded a frontline anti-crime unit made up of plainclothes officers following pressure from Black Lives Matter protests...

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Your personal life is yours, is up to you to defend it. The Gvt can’t oblige people how to

TRUMP ANNOUNCES EMERGENCY AUTHORIZATION FOR BLOOD PLASMA AS TREATMENT FOR COVID

"Today’s action will dramatically expand access

to this treatment." – D Trump.

….

While the Heath System is privatized, is a nasty business for pharma Corp

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MEDIA DEEMS CASHLESS SOCIETY A "CONSPIRACY THEORY" (AFTER ADMONISHING CASH USE)

Don’t let the media shame you into complacence regarding a cashless society

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WE NEED SOCIALISM FDR STYLE URGENTLY

Hugo Adan

8/23/20

This is my reaction to

US DEFAULT BOMB GOES OFF: 2020 WILL HAVE A RECORD NUMBER OF LARGE CORPORATE BANKRUPTCIES

"It pains me to say this, but bankruptcy is a growth industry in America"

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My quick answer: It is the neoliberal system that is collapsing.. We need socialism FDR style urgently

HOW TO GET IT

Let’s start demanding the 3^rd Option with SANDERS-AOC in this election. The aim is to diffuse the violent time-bomb about to explode between Dems-Reps (2 corrupted parties) and SET UP NEW ELECTORAL RULES: 50% of political power at all levels (House, senate & governance). 30% to the 2^nd most voted party and 20% to the 3^rd party. In this alternative don’t matter the amount of votes in the ballot box (they are usually rigged via frauds by corp thatpay- buy votes & the machines counting votes). What matter is to respect the 7 principles of democracy set in Polyarchy Robert. Dahl ::

1-Freedom to form & join org.

2-Freedom of expression.

3-Right to vote not in labor day, it exclude many workers.

4-Elegibility for Public Office (to assure Govnabit: formul 50-30-20 of Polit power for 1^st, 2^nd 3^rd voted in ballot box).

5- Right of polit leaders to compite for votes out of any type of fraud.

6- Alternative source of info (not paid press) . Big debates must run by cSPAN

7- Free & fair election (not controlled by fake institut like Dem-Rep National Convention to their pre-paid CIRCUS by Big Billionaires . This include also the

8- Freedom to join National Fronts & REFERENDUM to create alternative source of Political power when the elected betray or do opposite for what he was elected for, or for betray the previous 7 rights for real Democracy.

NOTE:

Those 7 principles are expression of REAL DEMOCRACY. Robert Dahl considered that we don’t have this system en America. It is the oligarchy (big billonaries) who run the Political Power in America. That is why he named POLYARCHY to our system , not real democracy.

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Doesn’t matter who win (Trump or Biden) the ECON boss will be there to assure …

A LOVE LETTER TO THE FED FROM THE ADORING STOCK MARKET

"Of course, the bond market did read the minutes, and it thinks you’re being a little rude for not wanting to keep the party going..."

…..

To assure what? Peaceful transition to heaven for super rich & inferno to you

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"WHERE'S OUR FU*KIN' BAILOUT?": ICE CUBE SLAMS DEMOCRATS FOR ABANDONING BLACKS

"They just pulled three trillion dollars out they ass

and gave it to their friends"

….

You have 2 choices: 1- Continue waiting & enjoying the CIRCUS election. 2- Join the Socialist REV (FDR Style) to change this syst of fraud, oppression & tyranny

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US-WORLD ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)

Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State socialis+K-, D rest in limbo

BOFA: "IT IS UNREALISTIC TO HAVE WIDESPREAD VACCINE AVAILABILITY IN Q1 2021"

"Distributing a vaccine that either doesn’t work or ends up with serious side effects could damage the economy more than having a long delay in finding a vaccine."

SEE CHART:

Share of respond who won’t vaccines available & mandatory by Law

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/not%20take%20a%20vaccine.jpg?itok=42Bds5mV

Econ growth & vaccine dissemination in developed world :

SEE CHART:

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/growth%20forecasts%20bofa.jpg?itok=lH3TYe2f

Early vaccine would allow US GDP to return to 4Q 2019 levels by 4Q 2021, although the output gap remains as growth lags potential; Euro area GDP would not quite return to 4Q 2019 levels even with an early vaccine, largely because fiscal stimulus has been too small and too delayed.

SEE CHARTS:

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/GDP%20trajectory%20bofa.jpg?itok=dppoPg6H

China is expected to surge even in the base case as the virus is already largely under control. Similarly, there is limited upside from an early vaccine in most of emerging Asia because so much progress has already been made in staving off the virus. Other emerging markets should benefit more than EM Asia, but less than DM, because broad inoculation will probably happen a little later.

….

SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bofa-it-unrealistic-have-widespread-vaccine-availability-q1-2021

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Here the most STUPID xenophobic art so far: another sign of FEAR

US BILL SEEKS TO BAN TITLE "PRESIDENT" FOR CHINA'S XI JINPING

The Name the Enemy Act would prohibit Xi Jinping from being called China’s president in any US government document.

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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS

GEO-POL n GEO-ECO ..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars & danger of WW3

- ‘Less Drama, More Mama’ Kellyanne Conway to Quit Trump White House

- Russia Holding Test Flights of Latest Guided Missile Bulat -

- Poor Financial Health or Siding with a Rising Superpower: What Drives India's Neighbours to China?