AUG 4 20 ND SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco
ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics
BONDS & BULLION BID TO NEW RECORDS AS STOCKS SEE-SAW ON STIMULUS SCARES
Spot Gold prices settled above $2,000 for the first time in history today...
See Chart:
Spot Gold
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfm5A27.jpg?itok=gbC5l0_P
Algos were crazy on words like "hope" and "nope" pinging markets around like a f**king cannabis/blockchain penny-stock..
See Chart:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2020-08-04_13-00-04.jpg?itok=AljFem9U
Nasdaq underperformed most of the day (but the machines managed to get it green late on) as Small Caps were just panic-bid at every excuse.
And in case you wondered why - which you really shouldn't by now - it was another major short-squeeze day...
See Chart:
“Most Shortest “ Stocks
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfmE964_1.jpg?itok=6shJvSMg
FANG Stocks have been unable to extend after the huge gap higher on last Thursday night's earnings...
See Chart:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfm24AF_0.jpg?itok=NQhfP4gQ
Treasury yields tumbled led by the long-end (30Y -5bps, 2Y -0.5bps)...
See Chart:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfmD1B4_0.jpg?itok=wtEMLIET
With UST 10Y Yields back to a 50bps handle - a record closing low...
See Chart:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfmAA9D.jpg?itok=DabVEeif
In fact, record low closing yields for the entire curve aside from 30Y...
See Chart:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfmA53A_0.jpg?itok=Qo2QJRt1
But stocks still don't care...
See Chart:
Nasdaq Vs 10 Y Yield
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bonds-bullion-bid-new-records-stocks-stall-stimulus-scares
The B-Dollar Index mirrored Monday almost perfectly with a buying panic during the European day and selling in the US session...
See Chart:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfm2CFC.jpg?itok=nNKtRrdy
Gold futures surged and closed above $2,000
See Chart:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2020-08-04_12-30-32.jpg?itok=HBFTVI8R
Gold is notably overbought but the last few times it has been this overbought there has been consolidation and new high...
See Chart:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfm90B5.jpg?itok=Uijr38WT
Silver's outperformance sent the Gold/Silver ratio back to its lowest close since June 2018...
See Chart:
Gold / Silver
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfmA3C3_0.jpg?itok=DjrsyKEp
Oil prices chopped around as algos followed the same stock algos on headlines and ended higher ahead of tonight's API inventory data (also helped by the dollar's demise during the US session)...
See Chart:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2020-08-04_12-36-27.jpg?itok=uzfhuoZv
Finally on an inflation-adjusted basis, it has room to run...
See Chart:
Inflation -adjusted Gold
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfmB3D3.jpg?itok=xlUu0Xfc
And if the world's central banks keep doing what they're doing (and does anyone really believe there will ever be a normalization now), then negative-yielding global debt will force allocations increasingly to bullion and bitcoin...
See Chart:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfmFC16.jpg?itok=aXb4PkY8
….
SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bonds-bullion-bid-new-records-stocks-stall-stimulus-scares
----
----
3 REASONS TREASURY RATES CAN STILL HIT 0%: PART I, INFLATION VS DEFLATION
Deflation remains the more credible risk, not inflation...
Authored by Eric Basmajian via EPBMacroResearch.com,
DEFLATION, NOT INFLATION, IS THE BIGGER RISK
The inflation crowd has made frequent use of the following chart of money supply growth, quick to point out the record level.
Decades ago, with profoundly different circumstances which will be outlined below, significant increases in money supply growth gave reason to be worried about rising inflation. Today, there quite literally exists no correlation between money supply growth and inflation.
M2 Money Stock, Year over Year
SEE Chart:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/1-1_3.png?itok=nS1WbROo
The Federal Reserve quadrupled the size of its balance sheet over the last ten years before the COVID crisis, and the result was below average inflation and a decline in market-derived inflation expectations. Despite what should be considered a well-established fact now, the same arguments for rising Federal Reserve assets and inflation have reemerged.
It is easy to suggest that the velocity of money will suddenly break the near 30-year trend and start rising, along with a continued increase in money supply growth, but why? Putting money in the hands of consumers to spend on basic necessities such as rent, food, and clothing are not high-velocity uses of capital and will not meaningfully change the long-run trajectory of the ratio.
Velocity Of M2 Money Stock:
See Chart:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2-1_5.png?itok=NVGbOta1
High velocity uses of capital stem from productive investment into plant & equipment, products or properties that generate a lasting income stream.
In order for the growth in money supply to have an increased chance of generating lasting inflation, the velocity of money has to be at least stable.
The chart below is the reserve multiplier or the ratio of broad money supply to total reserves in the banking system.
Reserve Multiplier:
See Chart:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/3-1_5.png?itok=o89Q8C0D
Another ratio that is assumed to be stable in the traditional money supply arguments is the relationship between broad money supply and the monetary base controlled by the Federal Reserve. The ratio of M2 money supply to the monetary base or the “money multiplier” is also highly unstable and has steadily declined over the last few decades.
The money multiplier ratio shows the ability and desire of private sector banks to turn high powered base money into broad spendable dollars.
Money Multiplier:
See Chart:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/4-1_4.png?itok=gjv-Z7Af
The relationship between the monetary base and the money supply is unstable and currently in a declining trend. The relationship between money supply growth and inflation measured by either the Consumer Price Index or the Personal Consumption Expenditure Index is highly unclear.
The chart below shows the relationship between the year over year growth rate in money supply and the year over year change in Core CPI, adjusted for a 12 and 18-month lag.
See Charts:
Money Supply Growth Vs. Core CPI Inflation Rate:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/5-1_4.png?itok=QLVOoH7f
Economists Stephen G. Cecchetti and Kermit L. Schoenholtz of the Money, Banking, and Financial Markets blog complied a more comprehensive chart of money supply growth and the core PCE inflation rate.
See Chart:
Money Supply Growth Vs. Core PCE Inflation Rate:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/6-1%20%281%29_1.png?itok=FMmTDu3D
Cecchetti and Schoenholtz went on to note the lack of relationship between the size of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet and long-term market-derived inflation expectations in a chart I recreated below.
See Chart:
Fed Balance Sheet Vs. Market Derived Inflation Expectations:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/7-1_0.png?itok=xNM3SrWg
Using the rate of money supply growth as the base of an inflationary argument has demonstrated poor results over the last ten years due to a multi-decade decline in the velocity of money and an unstable (currently falling) relationship between reserves, broad money and the monetary base (reserve multiplier and the money multiplier.)
While money supply growth is an unreliable determinant of inflation, the economic output gap has demonstrated a sound relationship to core inflation, particularly over the past two decades, when economic volatility dropped to record lows.
The output gap is measured by using “potential GDP” and actual or projected GDP.
Potential GDP is published by the Congressional Budget Office “CBO” through a calculation of potential labor force growth and potential productivity growth.
The chart below shows nominal GDP in black, potential GDP in blue, and projected GDP through 2030 in red.
See Chart:
US GDP Vs. Potential GDP (Billions):
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/8-1%20%281%29.png?itok=osTDyTbI
The difference between potential GDP and actual or projected GDP is the “output gap,” graphed below. A negative output gap is deflationary because the economy has unutilized capacity, driving down the price of goods and services. Too many workers will drive down wages.
Using the projected GDP estimates from the CBO, the deflationary output gap is not only expected to be the largest in modern history but last more than 44 quarters, through 2030.
The chart below shows the output gap as a percentage of GDP.
See Chart:
US Output Gap (% Of GDP):
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/9-1.png?itok=LNWc-zLH
Continue reading and see more Charts.
Summary
Money supply growth is an important variable, but it must be used in context to explain future impacts to price inflation. Over the last decade, using the money supply growth or Federal Reserve balance sheet expansion to forecast inflation has been a losing proposition due to the consistent decline in velocity and the changing relationships highlighted by the reserve multiplier and the money multiplier.
….
----
----
Short news on Econ
IT'S A MAD, MAD, MAD, MAD MARKET
Scared money may not make money today,
but at least it lives to fight another day...
For obvious reasons, the impact of recent fiscal stimulus on M2 has been outsized.
Figure 1: Top Panel – M2 (blue) and Fed Balance Sheet (orange); Lower Panel – Change in M2 (blue bars); Source – Bloomberg Data
SEE CHART:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/0%20%281%29_8.jpg?itok=TjMTJ2_V
To cut to the chase, M2 growth is supporting equities, but it’s not a monetary policy phenomenon – it’s fiscal policy one. While fiscal policy is driving both investor sentiment and the beginnings of an economic recovery, the Fed still plays a critical role.
According to a Journal, “she read ‘Trading for Dummies,’ watched YouTube videos, opened an E*Trade account and dove in.” That sounds about right.
Figure 2: New E*trade Retail Accounts by Month; Source - WSJ
See Chart:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2020-08-04_10-14-27.jpg?itok=72RVIjUk
This is now the sixth month of a pandemic that has not yet significantly abated in the U.S. In order to continue unwaveringly towards the Big W, it would seem to require market participants believe an efficacious vaccine is not only assured but that it is also distributed quickly to the population.
In the absence of unusual fiscal policy stimulus programs (as present) and under normal circumstances, loans create deposits. Deposits, in turn, contribute to a capital base for yet more loans. Defaults and delinquencies are surely one thing that destroys the loan-deposit cycle. Defaults will slowly start to sop up liquidity – as they always do. Lending standards, which had already begun to tighten in 2019, are now tightening significantly… it’s likely just the beginning
See Chart:
Lending Standards for Large/Medium Firms (blue), Small Firms (orange) and Consumer Credit Cards (gray); Source – The Fed
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/0%20%282%29_4.jpg?itok=jA-mPRK1
Corporate sector leverage – particularly speculative grade loans and bonds – has been at the top of the list of concerns for at least the past twelve months.
While prices have rebounded, credit fundamentals are not improving. That’s about $2.6 trillion of BBB tier debt that carries a negative outlook or is on credit watch negative.
Importantly, non-bank lenders and loan syndication vehicles are also challenged – specifically, collateralized loan obligation (CLO) and business development companies (BDCs).
CONCLUSION
Scared money may not make money today, but at least it lives to fight another day… Monetary policy is no longer providing the safety it once did.
Even with fiscal policy support increasing money supply by direct deposit, a liquidity trap is likely.
Ultimately, defaults and corporate distress will steamroll greedy bravado and force a reconnect of equity prices and economic reality. It’s happened once already this year. It will likely happen again.
Live to fight another day, and don’t forget to smile.
….
SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/its-mad-mad-mad-mad-market
----
----
US DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambio
HOW THE RACE FOR A COVID-19 VACCINE COULD GO HORRIBLY WRONG FOR THE MARKET
“Based on historic distributions of trials and the fact that all major vaccines currently target the same protein, we expect vaccine approvals to be correlated, with either many succeeding or all failing in the near-term..."
----
Si creo que la pandemia se va y lo peor queda: WW3 y crash financ (USD=RIP). Yo estoy invitado a una Univ de Moscu sobre “Autonomias Regionales” (Fue mi Tesis para el Master y PhD en Ciencias Politicas, con ligeras modificación que yo mismo hice, se publicó en la India, me pagaron bien). Si me envían el pasaje a Moscú, yo traigo la vacuna de los Chinos. En realidad es de ambos: CH-RU.
----
----
WHY COVID-19 WILL MAKE A COMEBACK IN NYC THIS FALL - AND LOCKDOWNS WON'T HELP
Melbourne is a model for what will happen in NYC
just a few months from now...
====
TRUMP DELIVERS LATEST WHITE HOUSE COVID-19 UPDATE
The briefing is set to start at 1730ET..
====
FUNDING IS BEING REDUCED FOR "NEARLY HALF" OF ALL MAJOR CITY POLICE DEPARTMENTS IN AMERICA
...nearly half of the law enforcement agencies that they surveyed “are reporting that funding has already been slashed or is expected to be reduced”...
====
US-WORLD ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State socialis+K-, D rest in limbo
'IT'S LIKE HIROSHIMA': TERRIFYING SEISMIC SHOCK FROM BLAST DEVASTATES BEIRUT
Lebanese PM says explosions caused by estimated 2,750 tons of ammonium nitrate left unsecured for 6 years in warehouse...
====
TRUMP CALLS BEIRUT EXPLOSION "A TERRIBLE ATTACK - A BOMB OF SOME KIND" AFTER BRIEFED BY GENERALS
Did Trump just reveal sensitive classified information that contradicts 'accident' narrative?
====
IS THIS THE BEGINNING OF A NUCLEAR POWER RACE IN THE GULF STATES?
“Since new nuclear makes little apparent sense in the Gulf, which has some of the best solar energy resources in the world, the nature of the interest in nuclear may lie hidden in plain sight...”
===
"TRADE DEAL" FARCE SUMMARIZED IN THESE CHARTS
"China is unlikely to fulfill its Phase 1 commitments..."
Citing the Peterson Institute for International Economics' (PIIE) trade tracker, we showed how China's monthly purchases of US goods covered by the deal through June are at purchase levels of around 47% of year-to-date targets.
SEE CHART:
China purchases of US goods
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/piie%20trade%20overview_0_0.png?itok=PxDGbkU3
Outlined in a series of charts via Reuters, China has only bought 5% of the targeted $25.3 billion in energy products under phase one agreement.
This chart is absolutely stunning...
SEE CHART:
China only achieved 5% of the $25.3 Bll energy target in first half of 2020
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/china%20us%20energy%20buys%20rtrs.png?itok=BjAqbMTR
The lack of enforcement could be reversed on August 15 when the Trump administration is expected to hold high-level talks with China to review Beijing's compliance of the deal.
[ China Econ is very bad –in part for US sanct. If not money to pay, why to buy?]
----
----
INDIA DEMANDS TOTAL WITHDRAW OF PLA TROOPS AS BEIJING URGES END OF 'BOYCOTT CHINA' CAMPAIGN
Indian Army cites “lack of progress in the withdrawal of Chinese forces from several areas of Ladakh.”
====
SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO ..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars & danger of WW3
- Virgin Atlantic Files for US Bankruptcy Protection Amid COVID-19 Disruptions
- US, Chinese Trade Officials to Meet 15 August to Evaluate Phase One Trade Deal
- US, Chinese Trade Officials to Meet 15 August to Evaluate Phase One Trade Deal
- Militants Shell Localities in Syria's Idlib, Aleppo Provinces
- Top 5 Deadliest Ammonium Nitrate-Related Accidents
- ‘Little Grasp of Reality’: Biden Likely to Pick Former UN Envoy Rice as VP, Despite Libya ‘Disaster’ [ Nada que perder.. pues Biden no van a ganar las elecciones ]
- US Police Viola Rights of Protesters, in Wake of George Floyd’s Death -
- 'Lacks Any Legal Status': US-SDF 'Oil Deal' Violates Syria's Sovereignty, Iran Says
- Colombian Supreme Court Orders House Arrest of Ex-President Alvaro Uribe –
- Beirut Blast 'Seriously' Injures UN Peacekeeping Crew,
- Countries Worldwide Offer Helping Hand to Lebanon After Port Blast
- US Flew 67 Spy Plane Missions in South China Sea in July
- ISR Has Offered Humanit, Medical Aid to Lebanon After Beirut Blast, Def-Mini Says. [Yo también sospeche de ISR y no me extraña esta hipocresía. Salgan de Siria y les creo]
- Israel Denies Responsibility for Massive Blast in Beirut, Knesset TV Says
- What is Known So Far About the Devastating Blast in Beirut?
- Kataeb Party Leader Reportedly Killed in Beirut Explosion
- As Spain's Ex-King Flies Into Exile, Are The Bourbons Europe’s Most Shameful Monarchy? by Chris Summers
- Pakistan's New Map Includes Earlier Indian Territories, Sparking Fresh Conflict
-Armed Syrian Arab Tribes Storm Local of US-Backed SDF Across Deir ez-Zor -
- Netanyahu: ISR Will Do Everything to Defend Itself in Wake of Recent Attack in Syria
- Beijing Urges US to Not 'Open Pandora's Box' by Demandg Sell of TikTok to US Comp
----
----
NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to neo-fascist regimes & terrorist imperial chaos
REBELION
OPIN: LA PANDEMIA NOS DEFINE Carolina Vásquez
Chile : ¡REVUELTA O BARBARIE! Oscar Ariel
Opin: Hacia un nuevo paradigma de Estado Javier Tolcachier
PAL: Palestinos al margen de las protestas contra Netanyahu? YAA
Ecol: Lat-Am: región con más defens ambient asesinad el 2019 T G
Or-Próx: Sin agua, con cambio climát y CV-19 en Yemen Helen L
ALC: Tragedias dispares de CV-19 en la desig Am-Lat Mario Osava
Rep-Dominica Continuid del saqueo y entreguis Lilliam Oviedo
Ecol: Las emisiones de metano aumentan peligrosamente varios a
BOL: BIBLIAS, BOTAS Y VOTOS Damián y Fátima
BRA: gran escándalo de lavado de dinero en Brasil Juraima Almeida
Chile : Min del Interior va a incendiar el País mapuche Tito Tricot
Cuba: Día de la amistad noble y cordial Julio César Guanche
Cuba : PERIODISMO CANALLA Y MEDICINA CUBANA D Machado
Ecua: TLC con la UE y US : golpe mortal para Ecuador Varios A
US: NO SEÑOR, USTED NO ES CAPITALISTA Jorge Majfud
US: DESBORDADO DE PASIONES Oscar Oramas
Mund: ¿A DÓNDE VA TAIWÁN? Xulio Ríos
----
----
ALAI NET ORG
BOL: Pueblo contra el desgobierno de facto Eduardo Paz
Chile: Piñera tropieza con las pensiones Marco Consolo
US: Prohibido olvidar: a 75 años de las bombas atómicas++ M L R
COL-VEN: La desaparición de las distancias Jorge Echeverri
- IRRACIONALIDAD SOCIAL Y POLÍTICA EN EL HOMBRE M Sierra
AM-LAT: Tres Presid, una sola voz por el Foro de Sao Paulo L Varese
España: ¿JAQUE AL REY? Germán Gorraiz López
Costa Rica: Los vientos virulentos pro privatización Álvaro Vega
OPIN: TEORÍA DE LA CONSPIRACIÓN Daniel Espinosa
----
----
INFORMATION CLEARING HOUSE
Deep on the US political crisis: neofascism & internal conflicts that favor WW3
-Another Hiroshima is Coming…Unless We Stop It Now By John Pilger
- US-China Cold War Will Isolate the US, Not China By M B and N D
- Countries Should Mind Their Own Business By Stephen M. Walt
- MEMO: To Nancy Pelosi - Did Russia Hack the DNC Emails? VI PS
- Another 'RU Hacker' Story Debunks Itself By Moon Of Alabama
|
-Does US. Military Assassinate Journalists? The Answer Is Yes. By R F |
|
-Moment arrest of George Floyd for the first time By Martin Gould
- P Is for Predator State: The Building Blocks of Tyranny from A to Z By JW. W
====
====
VOLTAIRE NET ORG https://www.voltairenet.org/en
IMPERIALIST IRAN BECOMES ANTI-IMPERIALIST
by Thierry Meyssan
SOURCE: https://www.voltairenet.org/article210645.html
----
----
DE PAÍS IMPERIALISTA, IRÁN PASA A SER ANTIMPERIALISTA
por Thierry Meyssan
SOURCE: https://www.voltairenet.org/article210647.html
----
----
CROSS TALK https://www.rt.com/shows/crosstalk/
‘HEY SIRI’ IS A CHINESE INVENTION STOLEN BY APPLE, SAYS COURT (FULL SHOW)
The White House is actively collaborating with US tech giant Microsoft to buy shares of Chinese-owned social media app TikTok despite moves to ban the app in the US. Meanwhile, in what some are calling an act of retaliation, a Chinese AI company is suing Apple for patent infringement vis-a-vis the voice-recognition software behind its now-commonplace “Siri” virtual assistant.
SOURCE: https://www.rt.com/shows/news-with-rick-sanchez/497003-hey-siri-is-chinese-invention/
----
----
GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more business-wars from US-NATO allies
- Bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki a War Crime and a Crime Against Humanity? By Rossen Vassilev
- Trump: Escalation of US Aggressive Posturing against China By Junaid S. Ahmad
- The Tyranny of Lithium Extraction in Argentina By Yanis Iqbal,
- “ChinaGate” in the Making: US Hostility Toward China Is Bipartisan By S Lendman,
- China Has Been Importing Millions of Barrels of Iranian Crude Oil By Simon Watkins,
- Are Face Masks Effective? The Evidence By Swiss Propaganda Research,
----
----
DEMOCRACY NOW
Amy Goodman’ team
-White House Scrapped Nationwide COVID-19 Testing Plan to Hurt Blue States
- Calls Grow to Stop Jailing Immigrants as Transfers & Deportations Spread COVID
- “It’s a Death Sentence”: Hunger Strikers Demand Release as Virus Surges in ICE Jails
- Militarized BORTAC Border Patrol Raids & Ransacks Medical Camp on U.S. Border, Arrests 30 Migrants
====
====
No hay comentarios:
Publicar un comentario