miércoles, 8 de mayo de 2019

ND MAY 8 19 SIT EC y POL



ND MAY 8 19  SIT EC y POL 
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco


ZERO HEDGE  ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics


US Futures show the roller-coaster ride today with overnight headlines of China's reneging starting the decline, Trump tweets and Sanders reiteration prompted hope-filled gains, and then China's retaliation headlines sparked selling...
See Chart:
China Retaliate


Stocks were holding hopeful gains until the last 15 minutes which - as opposed to yesterday's panic-bid - dumped...
See Chart:


With a major sell program hitting..
See Chart:
NYSE Uptick –Downtick


LYFT was clubbed like a baby seal after a brief spike on earnings...
See Chart:


VIX Term Structure remains inverted for a 3rd day in a row...
See Chart:


10Y Yields spiked after the ugly auction, reaching up to its Monday opening levels...
See Chart:


The dollar trod water for a 3rd day as the European market buying continues...
See Chart:


And while the dollar flip-flopped all day, yuan slid lower all day...
See Chart:

[[ Mal de todos.. Consuelo de tontos  ]]

Finally, FX, Credit, Oil, and Gold vols appear to be shrugging off this week's sudden outburst of vol while bonds and stocks are seeing volatility expectations explode...
See Chart:
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The good news is renewal becomes possible when the entire rotten status quo collapses in a putrid heap of broken promises, dysfunctional institutions, blatant lies, unpayable debts and cascading defaults.


The good news is renewal becomes possible when the entire rotten status quo collapses in a putrid heap.

There are two basic pathways to systemic collapse: external shocks or internal decay. The two are not mutually exclusive, of course; it can be argued that the most common path is internal decay weakens the empire/state and an external shock pushes the rotted structure off the cliff.

As Dave of the X22 Report and I discuss in The World Is About To Change & It's Going To Be Glorious, we are in the early stages of terminal internal decay. There are a number of dynamics shared by decaying empires/states:

1. The ruling elites lose the moral imperative to sacrifice for the good of the empire/state. Instead they use the power of the state to further their own private interests and agendas.
2. The ruling elites start "fudging" reports (i.e. lies are presented as truths) and promoting narratives to mask their self-aggrandizement and the erosion of the nation/empire under their self-interested rule.
In other words, the elites know the public would resist their leadership if the truth were widely known, so the ruling elites devote tremendous resources to massaging the news to distract the public from reality and reflect positively on their self-serving leadership.
Since the weaknesses of the empire are being hidden, they cannot be addressed, and so rot that could have been fixed early becomes widespread and fatal.
3. Flush with the state's wealth and power, the ruling elite splinters into warring camps which squander the empire's remaining wealth on private battles over which camp will rule what appears solid and eternal--the empire.
4. As the elites battle it out, the nation/empire falls apart as the leadership's focus is on internecine conflicts over the spoils of the empire, rather than on preserving the foundations of the empire's wealth and security.
5. As the truth inevitably leaks out, the public grasps the enormity of the elites' betrayal of the nation and the public interest. Faith in the elites and the institutions they control plummets, and the Great Unraveling becomes unstoppable.
6. In a last-ditch effort to save their wealth and power, the elites distract the public with Bread and Circuses-- "free money" in various guises (Universal Basic Income, Modern Monetary Theory, etc.)--and the distracting Circus of political theater and a surfeit of entertainment.

Whether the elites or the public are aware of it or not, America is well down the path to terminal internal decay: Distraction, Lies, Infighting, Betrayal.

See Chart:
Income Inequality and Political polarization 1947-2009

The good news is renewal becomes possible when the entire rotten status quo collapses in a putrid heap of broken promises, dysfunctional institutions, blatant lies, unpayable debts and cascading defaults.
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Don’t piss down my back and tell me it’s raining

On April 30, 2019, one day before the Federal Reserve’s FOMC policy-setting meeting, the Wall Street Journal published an article by Nick Timiraos and Paul Kiernan entitled Inflation Is Likely to Fuel Discussions as Fed Officials Meet. We quickly recognized this article was not the thoughts of the curious authors but more than likely indirect Fed messaging.

Is declining inflation a legitimate concern or a false flag meant to provide cover to lower rates?

Selling Deflation
The WSJ article published the day before the FOMC policy meeting has the Fed’s fingerprints all over it. The gist of the article is that inflation is running below the two percent goal and therefore needs to be addressed.

The following quotes come from that article:
  • Lower inflation remains the fly in the ointment.
  • Officials worry that the failure to hit the inflation target could undermine its credibility over time, which could cause consumers and businesses to expect lower inflation in the future, which in turn could cause price pressures to weaken further.
  • If officials grew concerned that the (inflation) shortfall was persistent, some could push for lowering rates.
The Smoking Gun

Given the statement above, is Inflation or inflation expectations materially changing? 
Inflation Expectations

See Chart:
Univ of Michigan Inflation Expectatios


Standard Inflation Measurements
See Chart:
CPI


FED’S OWN INFLATION MEASURES

The following two graphs are inflation indicators that the Fed created. They are designed to reduce temporary blips in the prices of all goods and services within the CPI and GDP reports. The Federal Reserve believes these measures present a more durable reading that is not as subject to transitory forces as other inflation measures.

See Chart:

Summary
Have inflation “expectations drift(ed) materially up or down?”

Looking at the ebbs and flows of inflation and inflation expectations of the last three years, we see no consistent change in the trend. As for the dreaded fear of deflation, the United States has not experienced it since the Great Drepression in the 1930’s. In our opinion, this recent talk about lower inflation is a sad case of the Fed manufacturing a story to justify easier monetary policy.

We conclude with a message for the Federal Reserve- If you want to lower rates then lower rates, but please do not feign concern about inflation trends that are non-existent as cover for such moves. You preach transparency, so be transparent.
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US  DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambio



The vote followed party lines... 

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Whatever affected capitalism the most got added to its name. In its current mode, we might accurately call our system “regulated capitalism,” and it is becoming more so...
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US-WORLD  ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State socialis+K-, D rest in limbo

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There is just one word to describe today's just concluded sale of $27 billion in 10Y notes: disastrous.

Overall, a very ugly auction, and if China wanted to send a message to the US, it clearly succeeded judging by the violent repricing in the 10Y whose immediately yield promptly blew out by over 2 bps.
See Chart:
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO  ..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars & danger of WW3

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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to neo-fascist regimes & terrorist imperial chaos

ALAI ORG

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RT EN ESPAÑOL 

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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more business-wars from US-NATO  allies

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DEMOCRACY NOW
Amy Goodman’  team

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PRESS TV
Resume of Global News described by Iranian observers..

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