ND MAY
14 19 SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal
debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco
ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is
over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics
Stocks
are up so everything must be awesome again, right?
But it
didn’t happen in China.. the engine of world-Econ.. Perhaps in Europe
China
has caught back down to US and Europe's YTD performance...
See Chart:
La pena entre dos se sufre menos.. será
cierto? Si lo es, a unirlas
US Equity
markets rallied back above the "constructive" rally point from Friday
today as a lack of negative things from China and US as well no inflationary
fears from import/export data sent markets higher...
See Chart:
Trannies
were the best performers in cash markets with Dow and S&P laggards...
See Chart:
Another
dead cat bounce?
See Chart:
The
dollar extended its gains from yesterday... ??
Finally,
it appears the liquidity party may be over for now...
….
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When the
leadership group of an entire market cycle stops leading, we need to pay attention...
See Chart:
….
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Not as
strong as many,
including President Trump believes...
How Will The Economy Hold Up As Trade War Escalates?
OR, is the U.S. economy so
strong it can withstand an escalation in the trade war with China?
We seriously doubt it and fully
expect Trump will be forced to cave on some of his completely unrealistic
demands. We have been consistent from day one: China will never give up
its sovereignty by changing the structure of its economy.
Seriously, folks, do you really think the Middle Kingdom, with
all its history and past glory, after climbing back to global superpower
status, is now going
to cave and give up some of its sovereignty because Trump demands it?
President Xi already seems to be preparing his population for the worst
case scenario, warning of “challenging
times ahead” possibly in the event Trump goes ahead
with the tariff hikes. Maybe we are reading too much into it and maybe
not. – GMM,
Feb 12th
GDP Growth Distorted In Q1
We unpacked the 3.2 percent Q1
GDP post and found it much weaker than the headline number conveyed.
The number was much weaker than it appeared.
The bulk of GDP growth came from the combination of a big inventory
build, net exports, and government spending (see table below).
…we ran the numbers and found that 5 of the 15 quarters after such
similar aberrational 3 percent plus growth as was the case in Q1 2019, where
private domestic demand’s contribution was so small, experienced negative
growth. Only 3 of the 15 quarters did economic growth accelerate.
The average growth deceleration of this sample was 435 bps quarter on
quarter. — GMM,
April 28th
The Atlanta Fed’s Q2
GDP Now forecast, which was spot on early in Q1 that growth was much
stronger than what the market socialists, who were calling for an emergency Fed
rate cut to bail out the stock market, were forecasting and panicking over.
The GDP
Now latest forecast has Q2 coming in around 1-1.5 percent but we believe this
was posted before the latest escalation in the trade war.
See Chart:
Evolution
of the Atlanta FED-GDP Now Real GDP estimated for 2019:Q2
Not
such a strong economy, in our book.
Maybe the Chinese negotiators
get it and the Trump team has yet to receive the memo.
Labor Market: Employment and Unemployment
Rate
The labor or jobs market is
still humming along in the nonfarm sector, almost exactly as it has been since
October 2010, when labor market fully recovered. The
monthly increase in nonfarm payrolls in 2019 is averaging 205k, just a smidgen
above 201k monthly average since the positive streak began in October 2010.
Strong
and decent growth?, neither showing a sustained acceleration or
deceleration. The strongest jobs market
ever? You decide.
See
Chart:
Monthly Change in non-farm
payrolls (thousands)
WAGES
Nonfarm real wages have picked
up in the past year, growing much faster than the monthly year-on-year average
of 0.5 percent since the jobs market recovered in October 2010. Even still, as the chart illustrates, nothing that
spectacular.
See
Chart:
Real Average hourly Earnings
growth (% change y/y)
Trouble In the Farm Belt
We noted in our recent
post, Nonfarm
Payrolls & Employment Data Diverging, the employment
data, gathered by a different survey, which includes the farm sector, self-employed,
and informal labor market, and doesn’t double count jobs, is weakening in 2019.
See
Chart:
NonFarm Payrolls (NFP) vs.
Changes in Employment
Unemployment Rate (UR)
In the same post, we went
deeper into the unemployment rate that hit a 50-year low in April. We
found that the employment-population ratio was only 60.6 percent compared to
the April 2000 high of 64.7 percent when the UR was at 3.8 percent.
Working Age Population Not In The Labor Force
We also discovered the
working-age population (16-64 years) not in the labor force remains higher than
it was before the recession, making it impossible to get a true comparative
measure of unemployment across time. We suspect
the UR would be several basis points (bps) higher if this measure was accounted
for. To say the “unemployment rate is at a 50-year low” needs
some qualification, to say the least.
See Chart:
Percent
of Working Age Pop *Not in the labor Force & % of senior Pop (65>) Empl
Upshot
If you have been following the
GMM for any length of time, you know we love being a contrarian voice. taking
on and challenging the conventional wisdom of the markets. We only
touched on a few of the headline indicators and if we had time would go deeper
into debt, capital spending and many of the other macro indicators. You
don’t pay us enough, however.
Nevertheless, if and when
the dark thunderstorm clouds arrive, you can’t say you were not warned.
Go deeper and sharpen your
pencils, folks.
[[ Very
decent-accurate article ]]
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Xenophobia
dropped? .. Miracles in May? My wife
will be surprised: Oct is Mir/time
“We are
witnessing a tussle between economic
concerns and tightening oil-market balance,”
See Chart:
…
SOURCE:
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-05-14/wti-drops-after-big-surprise-crude-inventory-build
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Just drop the US Tariffs to
China and they will do the same. Your bullish Presid Trump is not only
affecting common people.. Productive capital too.. Only speculators are happy
Trump
admin retaliates against ERS economists who point out trade war has crushed farmers...
We recently discussed how
farmers are defaulting
and missing payments at alarming rates, forcing
regional banks to restructure and refinance existing loans.
See Charts:
Farmers
in Distress
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/farm%20distress.png?itok=lYVnYSgT
Trade wars, depressed commodity
prices, natural disasters, and a synchronized global slowdown have brought many
farmers
onto the edge of bankruptcy.
Several months ago, we reported
that federal data showed the number of farmers
filing for bankruptcy has climbed to its highest
level in a decade.
See Chart:
Trouble
for Top Producers
Last summer Perdue sent an
internal memo directing ERS economist to include disclaimers in their
peer-reviewed reports stating that the conclusions were "preliminary"
and "should not be construed to represent any agency determination or
policy" -- a move that will allow the Trump
administration to suppress information if it doesn't fit the "Making
America Great Again" narrative.
See Chart:
Outstanding
Agricultural Loans in the US as of Dec 2018
Perdue and Trump made it evident in their budget request in March that
they wanted to wind down ERS, and eliminate "low priority research"
into politically sensitive areas. Trump has called for a 50% reduction
in ERS staff, cutting the total number of positions from about 329 to 160.
The Trump administration made a great
mistake by launching the trade war at the expense of the American farmer. With
many farmers on the brink of bankruptcy in the heartland, the administration
appears to be actively trying to suppress information about the developing farm
crisis before the 2020 election year.
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The last utopia/dystopia from
billionaires:
WHAT IS THE BEST WAY FOR INVESTORS TO LEVERAGE A
GOLD RALLY?
An emerging company, led by an
experienced and successful team, generated over $34 million in revenue last
year without operating a single mine.
See
Chart:
Royalty companies provide attractive leverage to Gold
Open the above site
How to produce gold without digging?
See Chart:
Same above chart
….
SOURCE: What is the Best way for investors to leverage upcoming Gold Rally?: https://www.zerohedge.com/
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"Investors see little reason to
‘buy in May’ unless the 3Cs – credit, the consumer, and China – quickly
surprise to the upside."
See Chart:
….
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Just days after his latest appearance
on CNBC and the Ira Sohn conference, where he revealed his
top trade for 2019, Double Line CEO Jeffrey Gundlach is holding his latest
periodic live webcast with investors.
====
US DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is
obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambio
Orwell’s
predictions were so spot on that it almost seems like it was used as some type
of accidental instruction manual for
would-be tyrants...
====
Naturally,
Sanders and Ocasio-Cortez are framing
the bill as something designed to help "ordinary people." But
in reality, the legislation will only
act as to reduce access to credit for low-income and other high-risk
borrowers...
====
- Is it constitutional? Yeap! IF unclear, reform it
- Is it the proper role of government? Of course!.. it is Gvt for all
- Who should pay for health care? Tobin Tax, as FDR did it
====
"These documents show
Andrew Weissmann, an anti-Trump activist, had a hand in hiring key members of
Mueller’s team – who also happened to be political opponents of President Trump..."
====
"Lower interest rates might fuel
asset price bubbles, create financial imbalances, and ultimately a
recession."
…
You woke up too late.. You miss the train.. Next time don’t
sleep in wk/t
====
“The event
was organized to highlight the
struggles and the ways in which undocumented students persevere on this
campus."
…
Time for my
grand-daughter to apply Harvard.. she is AA+ & not illegal. Lati:Yes
====
US-WORLD ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China,
RU, Iran search for State socialis+K-, D rest in limbo
More mixed signals: "WE’D SEND A HELL OF A LOT MORE"
…
NICE
answer to “TRUMP IS BEING SET-UP FOR WAR WITH IRAN”
By Paul
Craig Roberts
====
The Trump
administration’s response to China’s emergence has been to throw all sorts of spanners in the works,
but tariffs won’t bring back manufacturing jobs...
====
"The White House might as well
try to call on American companies such as General Motors, Ford, Apple,
McDonald's and Coca-Cola to leave China."
====
Your policies are full of HOLES
Mr Presid.. Are you really run for re-elect?
“It is hard to overstate the significance of
this revelation...The whole scene
as depicted by ‘rebels’ and propaganda organs was staged.”
====
"...we’ve
got to address why [they] did things
the way that [they] did them...there is not an actual channel for
whistleblowers like them to bring
forward information that exposes egregious abuses of our constitutional rights
and liberties."
====
SPUTNIK
and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO ..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars
& danger of WW3
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NOTICIAS
IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to
neo-fascist regimes & terrorist imperial chaos
REBELION
Iraq: niños indocument Barreras desde el nacimiento
Uruguay: China, el principal socio
comercial Luis Rómboli
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ALAI ORG
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RT EN ESPAÑOL
- "Un desastre" de efectos "incalculables": Por qué una guerra de EE.UU. contra Irán sería "mucho peor" que la de Irak
- 'Mercado emergente': ¿Qué significa la nueva categoría que tendrá Argentina frente a los inversores?
- La Tierra entra en una severa tormenta solar, capaz de desestabilizar las órbitas de los satélites
- España retira su fragata del grupo de combate encabezado por EE.UU.
- “Fue una provocación”: Maduro responde a incursión de buque estadounidense en aguas venezolanas
- La ANC allana la inmunidad de cinco diputados opositores por traición a la patria
- Intensas auroras boreales: Primeras señales de la tormenta solar que azota la Tierra
- El 'arma nuclear' china en la guerra comercial: Golpear la economía de EE.UU. con la venta de sus bonos del Tesoro
- EE.UU. eleva el nivel de alarma en Irak y Siria por la amenaza potencial contra sus militares por parte de Irán
- Putin, en la reunión con Pompeo: Rusia está dispuesta a restablecer plenamente las relaciones con EE.UU.
- Odebrecht y la sed de justicia en México: ¿En qué etapa va el caso?
- Argelia: Miles de personas se manifiestan contra el Gobierno interino
- Experto: Pekín se va a enfrentar "muy seriamente" a Washington
- Keiser Report "El bitcóin es el futuro, y el futuro ocurrirá dentro de diez años"
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INFORMATION CLEARING HOUSE
Deep on the US political
crisis: neofascism & internal conflicts that favor WW3
-Tel Aviv is Afraid of the Axis of Resistan:
Prof. Tim Anderson: By
Basma Qaddou
-The ‘Deal of the Century’ condemns PAL to
endless Apartheid by JW n Emile
B
-
The Tariff Issue By Paul Craig Roberts
-ARG: Truth, justice and declassification: By
Rut Diamint
-
The Deadly Perils of Traffic Stops in the
American Police State By J W. Whitehead
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COUNTER
PUNCH
Analysis on US Politics &
Geopolitics
Patrick
Cockburn The
Mysterious “Sabotage” of Saudi Oil Tankers: a Dangerous Moment in Trump’s
Escalating Conflict With Iran
Robert
Hunziker Venezuelan
Communes Protect the State
David
Macaray 6
Reasons Why the Labor Movement May Be Doomed
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DEMOCRACY
NOW
Amy Goodman’ team
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PRESS
TV
Resume of Global News described
by Iranian observers..
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