ND MAY 4 19 SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social
+ Capit-compet in Eco
ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they
documented with graphics
This is no small thing...
Demonstrably false. It was that all the way back in March 2018 and I
think in May 2019 it’s even more so. Where’s the money?
Where are the dealers who
are the money?
See Chart:
Swap Spreads and Implied Bank
Capacity
….
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We cringe
every time we hear this ‘flattening curve’ rationale for higher volatility
as SocGen summarizes, "Higher real policy rates are followed by higher equity volatility and
vice versa" and while the QE period has distorted the tight fit
these two parameters had in the 1990s, SocGen notes that "the inflexion
points have overall been forecast quite accurately by our real rates model. This framework also correctly forecasts equity volatility in
Europe"
See Chart:
Real Fed Rate are the most accurate
predictor of future S&P500 Volatility
In other words, there is at
least agreement on one thing: whether one uses the - allegedly inaccurate -
yield curve to predict volatility, or instead one projects the VIX based on the
real Fed rate, volatility is set to explode in the coming months. And that is,
at the end of the day, all that matters.
….
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Rising interest-only loan issuance paired with a drop in average DSCR
may spell a messy future for the CMBS
industry if the US economy encounters another recession...
The difference in issuance between interest-only and fully
amortizing loans continued to widen as the market approached the recession,
eventually reaching a point where interest-only debt represented 78.8% of new
issuance in 01 2007. Even though the prevalence of
interest-only debt is mounting, why would this be a concern in today's market?
See Chart:
BREAKDOWN IN new Issuance by Amortization Time
IO Loans
Are More Likely to Become Delinquent
Just because a large chunk of
interest-only debt became delinquent during the previous recession does not
mean the same is destined to happen in the next downturn.
SEE Chart:
Delinquency rate by Amortization Time
Lenders will typically give interest-only loans to stronger
properties and require amortization from weaker properties, so it makes sense that they would also require less P&I
coverage for those interest-only loans on lower-risk properties.
See Chart:
Average DSCR by Amortization Type (2010-1019)
What Lies
Ahead for the IO Sector?
Rising interest-only loan issuance paired with a drop in
average DSCR may spell for a messy future for the CMBS industry if the US economy
encounters another recession. At this point, CMBS market participants can
breath a little easier since interest-only performance has remained above the
market standard. However, this trend is worth monitoring as the larger volume
could portend a loosening in underwriting standards.
….
SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-05-03/interest-only-issuance-has-skyrocketed-lt-time-worry-yet
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This amount
is about half the budget for food stamps, for example, which politicians want
to cut.
At a current rate of
about $36 billion a year, this is a cost to the Treasury that is
indefensible. This amount is about half the budget for food stamps, for
example, which politicians want to cut. There is no
provision for these funds ever to be paid back. It is welfare for the bankers.
See Chart:
Interest on Excess Reserves
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...more important than the future direction of the federal funds rate,
is the question of why there is even a federal funds rate to begin with...The work is crude. The work is fake. The
plotted dots are meaningless...
Why Fed Chair
Powell is a Laughingstock
Just this week, for example, Powell zoomed in on the dots
and concluded that the federal funds rate should remain within a range or 2.25
to 2.5 percent. At the same time, via an implementation
note, Powell lowered the interest on excess
reserves (IOER) rate 5 basis points to 2.35 percent.
See Chart:
Effective Federal Funs Rate
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"It smells like 2008 all
over again...The question now is, when will the mainstream media and the
Fed finally acknowledge this is
happening?"
Most of
my regular readers know full well how unemployment numbers are rigged to show
recovery, but to summarize, around 95
million working age Americans who are unemployed are not counted as unemployed
by the Bureau of Labor Statistics because they have been jobless for long
enough to be removed from welfare benefits roles. Now, to be clear, the BLS
does keep track of this statistic, but, they DO NOT
treat it as a measure of unemployment when reporting their stats to the public.
See Chart:
Unemployed + “No in Labor Force”
….
SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-05-04/crash-us-economic-fundamentals-accelerating
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US
DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds
& corruption. Urge cambio
Idiotism :
The gap between reality and the dominant
narratives about reality is getting wider and wider. Something’s going to have to give...
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Trump
Derangement Syndrome alive and well in the battle for 2020...
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"Troika of tyranny" = John Bolton’s second-favorite masturbatory fantasy
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US-WORLD ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State
socialis+K-, D rest in limbo
Sustained fire
continues into the night in major
escalation...
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DON’T MISS THIS JOKE
Trump concluded - in what appeared to be an attempt
to reassure Kim before he does something even more drastic - by adding that a
deal "will happen."
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO
..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars & danger of WW3
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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to neo-fascist regimes &
terrorist imperial chaos
RT EN ESPAÑOL
- Guaidó fracasa en la convocatoria frente a los cuarteles y admite "errores" de cálculo sobre el apoyo de las FANB
- Maduro llama a los militares a prepararse para defender el país de un eventual ataque de EE.UU.
- Rusia está lista a vender a Turquía sus avanzados cazas Su-57 si EE.UU. no le suministra los F-35
- Siete militares venezolanos mueren al caer un helicóptero de las Fuerzas Armadas
- Corea del Norte confirma la prueba de "lanzacohetes múltiples de largo alcance" y armas guiadas tácticas
- La reforma laboral mexicana: Un nuevo modelo de sindicalismo
- Experto turco explica para qué necesita Ankara los S-400 rusos y qué es lo que "teme" EE.UU.
- Trump no contaba con la firmeza del pueblo venezolano en la defensa de su Revolución
- Keiser Report "La fracturación hidráulica es como una estafa piramidal"
- En la mira Agronegocio: Neoliberalismo en el campo
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more
business-wars from US-NATO allies
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PRESS TV
Resume of Global News described by Iranian observers..
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