ND MAY
10 19 SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal
debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco
ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is
over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics
A
couple of tweets, and just like that $2.5 trillion of global equity market cap
evaporates...
See CHART:
Global
Equity Market Capitalization
As
stocks went from 'everything is awesome' to the worst week of the year in an
instant
With
global money supply failing to support the illusion...
See Chart:
As
stocks began to catch down to the far less exuberant global systemically
important banks...
See Chart:
The
week in US equity markets has been dominated by algos chasing headlines about
trade talks with dead cat bounces giving way to reality checks...
See Chart:
Notice that the market turned around when the
world's biggest money-losing IPO opened...
See Chart:
Smells
like PPT turned up after Mnuchin's comments as VIX flash-crashed (signaled) at
0830ET today then fell after Mnuchin's comments...
See Chart:
VIX has
been inverted all 5 days this week...
See Chart:
VIX
Term Structure
Second worst week of the year for credit markets...
See Chart:
The
Dollar ended the week unchanged...
And finally, it appears "constructive" is
the new 'put'... Ponle 1 sonrisa
al mal tiempo
See Chart
“Constructive” Story Count
….
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Our expectations have continued
ever higher even as the pie is
shrinking...
IF we set aside the perverse and destructive impact of this disastrous
policy, the economy is changing in structural ways. Scarcity value
is becoming, well, scarcer. Global competition has
reduced the scarcity value of education, ordinary labor and capital, and so the
gains flowing to these has declined accordingly.
See Chart:
Even
the most educated workers have declining
wages
Yet our expectations have continued ever higher even
as the pie is shrinking.Common
sense suggests realigning expectations with a realistic appraisal of what's
possible and what sacrifices are necessary is a good first step.
READ
full article here:
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by Tyler Durden Fri, 05/10/2019
If he's mistaken? "This could be my last interview."
Conventional investing wisdom
would have you believe that anybody who has remained bearish on global markets
since the financial crisis has not only lost a boatload of money, but has
missed out on the opportunity to cash in on one of the most torrid bull markets
in recent memory.
However, as Horseman Global's
Russell Clark has proven over and over again, this
simply isn't true. A few years back, we anointed Horseman with the title
"The world's most bearish hedge fund" for a very simple reason: Of all existing asset managers, Horseman may be the one
with the biggest and longest net short position in history. Just look at
the chart below, which shows not only that
Clark's net exposure was (as
of March) a staggering -88.14%, with a gross short position of 160%, but
that he had been effectively net short since 2011!
See Chart:
Historical Gross and Net Exposure
Yet, to assume that Clark has
lost his shirt over the past ten years would be a mistake. Actually, his fund
outperformed the S&P 500 for the period between 2011 - when he first went
net short - to the end of 2018 (when the Q4 meltdown helped his fund post
double-digit returns well above its benchmark).
In 2014, Clark posted
double-digit returns when oil prices cratered (he was short). In 2013, he made money shorting Brazilian equities. He
started with just $111 million when he took over the fund in January 2011, but
AUM peaked at $1.5 billion in 2015.
See Chart:
But after a bruising Q1, when
Clark got crushed by the torrid rally in US equities, more LPs have pulled out,
and AUM has shrunk to just $690 million. Per the FT, the loss in Horseman's Global Fund for April was a staggering
12%, which has brought its total loss YTD to more than 25%.
See Chart:
Hero to
Zero
This prompted Clark to joke
during an interview with Bloomberg published Friday. Perhaps it was kismet that
the interview was timed to coincide with stocks' worst run since the December
rout.
During the interview, Clark
recounted how his contrarian views were cemented during the early days of his
finance career, when he lost several weeks' worth of pay during the dotcom
crash.
Russell
Clark’s entry into the high-stakes world of investing could hardly have been
less promising. As a graduate trainee at UBS Group AG in Sydney, he was wowed
by friends getting rich by day-trading tech stocks in 2000. So he spent his first few paychecks on five
dot-com shares. Four crashed to zero, and the fifth lost half its value as the
tech bubble burst.
That lesson was so brutal
that it helped turn Clark, now 45, into a career contrarian. These days the hedge fund he runs
for London-based Horseman Capital Management is prepared for a market crash.
But as the relative market calm
has been increasingly punctuated by bouts of frenzied volatility, Clark
believes that the moment where the market finally breaks is nigh at hand.
The vicious December
sell-off, crowded trades, low trading volume even during market rebounds -
these are signals to Clark that the market is about to crack. Which for him is
good news. "The
stars are aligning, and the markets are complacent," he
wrote in January. "Get
the popcorn ready, it’s showtime."
In his March investor letter
and during the interview with BBG, Clark detailed the reasoning behind his bets
against US shale producers and his bet against
auto-callables, equity-linked securities which Clark believes will collapse and
trigger a broad resurgence in volatility.
“Investors hungry
for yields have piled into autocallables, artificially suppressing stock market
instability. This, he says, is "unsustainable and will end badly. I’ve seen it twice, three times
even. And it feels so close to that inflection point. Everyone’s in the same
trade."
[[ However:
]]
- First, the shale revolution has seen the US go from producing 5m barrels of oil a day to 12m barrels a day. This is hugely positive for growth.
- Secondly, for the global economy, China has become a huge consumer. Its auto market has grown to be the world's largest, and overseas tourism has grown substantially.
- Finally, and I would suggest the least understood driver has been the falling cost of equity insurance. For more than 10 years, from 2000 to 2011, equity investors suffered large equity drawdowns in global markets. And it is no coincidence that over this period there was huge growth of the hedge fund industry.
Finally,
for those wondering about Clark's positioning...
See Chart:
Geographic
Exposure by % of NAV
...and
what the fund is most short...
See Chart:
Industry
Exposure by % of NAV
….
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US DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is
obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambio
The lesson of the Ultimatum
Game: spite
always trumps classical marginal utility theory.
====
A new study by the Center for
Advancing Opportunity (CAO) and Gallup finds that 33% of residentsin America's fragile communities say they know "some" or "a lot of"
people who were unfairly sent to jail.
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US-WORLD ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China,
RU, Iran search for State socialis+K-, D rest in limbo
"valued at approximately $300 billion..."
====
Maduro denounces former intelligence
chief Cristopher Figuera as a "traitor" - whosewhereabouts remain unknown.
====
Syria got a big boost after Iranian
tanker's transponder went dark near Baniyas port.
====
SPUTNIK
and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO ..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars
& danger of WW3
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NOTICIAS
IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to
neo-fascist regimes & terrorist imperial chaos
REBELION
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ALAI ORG
====
RT EN ESPAÑOL
- EE.UU. desplegará su sistema de defensa aérea Patriot y el USS Arlington en Oriente Medio en medio de tensiones con Irán
- Trump ordena aumentar los aranceles a todas las importaciones chinas restantes por valor de 300.000 millones de dólares
- Odebrecht y la sed de justicia en México: ¿En qué etapa va el caso?
- Trump sobre los lanzamientos de proyectiles de Pionyang: "Algunos de ellos ni siquiera eran misiles"
- Caracas responde a acusaciones de su supuesto apoyo al ELN
- "Su flota multimillonaria puede ser destruida con un misil": un ayatolá iraní se pronuncia mientras se avecina un portaviones de EE.UU.
- Lavrov: Las acciones de EE.UU. en Asia oriental amenazan a Rusia
- El Zoom Europa: ¿Tierra hostil para el nazismo?
- Keiser Report "El único objetivo de imprimir dinero en EE.UU. es ponerlo en los bolsillos del 1 % más rico"
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COUNTER
PUNCH
Analysis on US Politics &
Geopolitics
Robert
Hunziker Pompeo’s
Arctic Shipping Lanes
Jeffrey
St. Clair The Wall
of No Return
Sarah
Anderson How
Wall Street Drives Gender and Racial Inequality
Brian
Cloughley Washing’s
Dogs of War Are Snarling at Iran and Ven
Serge
Halimi US
Foreign Policy as Bellicose as Ever
David
Rosen Suicide:
An American Nightmare
Howard
Lisnoff In
Your Face Income Inequality
Robert
Fantina Partisanship
Poison in the United States
Evaggelos
Vallianatos Can
Democracy Save America?
Tom
Clifford Targeting
China: It’s About Politics Not Trade
Manuel
E. Yepe The
Ridiculous Yankee Coup Machine
Richard
D. Wolff Socialism
and Workers’ Coops
Gary
Olson Meritocracy
is a Lie
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GLOBAL
RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol
crisis that leads to more business-wars from US-NATO allies
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DEMOCRACY
NOW
Amy Goodman’ team
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PRESS
TV
Resume of Global News described
by Iranian observers..
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