ND MAY 26 19 SIT
EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social
+ Capit-compet in Eco
ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they
documented with graphics
"Like it or not
intervention remains the lifeblood of these markets, they just
can’t do without and every bull case in the past 10 years has remain edentirely dependent on it..."
Intervention
is ultimately coming be it in the form of rate cuts and/or QE. It’s just
a matter of the how and the when. Intervention is needed as the macro wheels
are turning. Like it or not intervention remains the lifeblood of these
markets, they just can’t do without
and every bull case in the past 10 years has remained entirely dependent on it.
To perhaps most
succinctly summarize the state of markets:
- Support of equities and remaining in control so far: The Fed, buybacks and political jawboning.
- Going against equities: Macro reality.
- Upside triggers this year: Potential miracle saves in form of a China deal and somehow a Brexit deal by the end of October perhaps with new political leadership.
- Potential downside triggers this year: The weight of the emerging macro picture wrestling control away from the forces of intervention.
And this
macro reality is painting a consistent picture across the board and I’m just
highlighting a few of these: Durable
goods year over year:…
See Chart:
No
expansion, regressive growth similar to the lead up to the 2008 recession.
Median
sales prices of homes sold year over year:
See Chart:
It’s the 3rd largest
reversion to negative since 1970, the previous 2 examples of this magnitude
coincided with recessions.
Real
retail sales growth year over year:
See Chart: No here
Anemic and
regressive, there’s no evidence of expanding growth, rather it’s flirting with
negative territory.
Blame the
$AMZN factor all you want, but note the above data also correlates with jobs in
the retail trade:
See Chart:
There’s zero
evidence that tax cuts have supported any investment growth at all. It remains
weak and shows no expansion. We all know where the tax cut money went:
Buybacks.
Who
benefited from tax cuts? Check the data:
TO See Chart OPEN:
Cycles end, that’s a
fact of life. Also a fact: 99.9% of time unemployment is higher than the
current data point which means the next big move in the data is up not down.
And where
exactly is the great expansion in employment growth? Considering all the
supposed tax cuts and ‘greatest economy ever’ it all looks rather muted and
stalled:
See Chart:
Not only has the
growth rate been declining for years it’s dropped to negative. Without
population growth the entire growth curve is running into trouble. You think
it’s an accident that real growth has continued to decline for decades from
cycle to cycle?
No, it’s no
accident. Demographics are the big thing driving it all. Scream curbing
immigration all you want, but the fact is fertility rates are dropping hard.
2018 saw the lowest birth rate in 32 years. Blame technology, blame economics
and housing prices, blame whatever, but the fact is birth rates are
declining, working population growth has been declining and is now negative.
Best of luck financing entitlements, pensions, social security, the whole
works.
You know what this
all means. You do, because you’ve already seen the impact of these long term
trends. In order to keep the growth illusion alive ever
more debt has to be taken on to sustain it all. Hence you have this:
See Chart:
Ever higher debt to
GDP and again expanding deficits which will balloon much higher when the next
cycle turns in earnest.
Slowing
growth, expanding deficits, regressive population growth models, vast debt
expansion and it’s reflected in the data everywhere:
See Chart:
There goes
the Neighborhood
And all of
this is happening with rates still a historic low. And when I say historic,
here’s a broader context of the absurdity of it all:
See Chart:
See More
Charts
BOTTOMLINE: The macro data is stating clearly the slowdown did not end in Q1. It has
extended into Q2. GDP looks to have a 1% handle. Without a China deal
uncertainty will remain, given the negativity surrounding such a deal a
positive resolution would trigger a massive rally, without such a deal equity
prices may have to contend with further downside if certain levels break to the
downside. But China deal or not and with apologies to Tina Turner: The larger macro wheels are turning, markets keep on burning,
and before you know it they’re rolling, rolling toward the next round of
intervention.
….
SOURCE:
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"The simple fact is that
America is uncompetitive. This is at a deep and structural
level. It’s at an education level. And
this is something Trump’s trade team and his adherents refuse to admit..."
We hear this all the time. “Job Openings are at record levels” and they are according to
the BLS.
See Chart:
But the
flip side is that wage growth has been stagnant. And it is only just now approaching something close to
sustainable. This speaks to a
labor market completely out of phase with the needs of the society. You
can laud Trump for fixing some of this, certainly, but it’s not going to fix
the underlying structural problem of malinvestment.
See Chart:
Nominal wage growth has been far below target in the
recovery
This is not China’s
fault. This is our fault. It’s our fault for diverting
trillions upon trillions to uneconomic and wasteful projects and staggering
amounts of bureaucracy to administer them over the past two generations.
Don’t worry, China’s
headed down the same road we are on, they just are just getting hitting the
on-ramp while we’re heading for the unfinished overpass.
But blaming China for this loss of expertise in things we
used to be great at is the wrong approach to solving the underlying problem. We
have to address the way money flows through this society. We have to admit that
central planning doesn’t work.
Tim Cook understands
this. Trump’s rampage against China will hurt Apple in
ways that won’t be reversible. If you think Trump will stop with his
blacklisting Huawei you aren’t paying attention.
And no matter what happens, he won’t pay the price. We will.
Because for all of the money we over-invested in education the one thing we
didn’t do was teach the basics of economics, knock-on effects and the
opportunity costs of putting faith in the hands of the most venal people on the
planet, politicians.
….
SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-05-26/tariffs-china-do-not-solve-lack-us-competitiveness
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The cryptocurrency market cap surged above $260
billion in early Asian trading tonight as the entire space legs to
a new cycle high, led by Litecoin, with Bitcoin hitting 12-month highs.
Litecoin is up around 12% in the
last hour and the rest of the crypto-space is up 7-8% suddenly...
See Chart:
….
See More Charts at
SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-05-26/cryptos-are-exploding-higher-bitcoin-12-month-highs
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"Disastrous weather conditions have led to an anomalous amount of
corn yet to be planted across the United States."
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US
DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds
& corruption. Urge cambio
“This is one of the most
heartbreaking threads I’ve ever read...”
To read the full article go to
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One Nation under control:
"...there are people
who really do not want others to debate and discuss to come to a
better understanding of each other. They want, instead, to keep very tight control over what can and
can’t be said and can and can’t be debated."
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Past spikes in this ratio have preceded precious metals bull markets in
which silver outperformed gold...
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US-WORLD ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State
socialis+K-, D rest in limbo
And the Quran says negotiating with the devil bears no fruit...
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"Both
sides will continue to escalate until clear market or economic weakness pushes
them to reengage. Hence, investors should act as if the next escalation will
happen until markets price it in. - Morgan Stanley
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"Iraqi
courts have already meted out hefty sentences to hundreds of foreigners detained on its soil..."
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"Finishing
second would mean a sense of isolation in Europe."
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO
..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars & danger of WW3
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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to neo-fascist regimes &
terrorist imperial chaos
VIENTO SUR
UE:
Salario minimo mensual en los Estados miembros de la UE:
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RT EN ESPAÑOL
- El fundador de Huawei afirma que será "el primero en protestar" si China toma represalias contra Apple
- Comandante iraní: "La presencia militar de EE.UU. en Oriente Medio se encuentra en el momento más débil de la historia"
- VIDEOS: Primeras imágenes del terremoto de 8,0 en Perú y Ecuador
- Las proyecciones oficiales dan la victoria al Partido Popular Europeo en las elecciones a la Eurocámara
- El PSOE gana ampliamente las elecciones europeas en España
- Las elecciones municipales en España tiñen el mapa de rojo socialista
- El vuelo del caza F-16 estadounidense camuflado como un Su-57 ruso
- Irán propone concretar un tratado de no agresión a países del golfo Pérsico
- 'Hackers' retienen el control de miles de computadoras gubernamentales en EE.UU. con una 'ciberarma' robada de la NSA
- Trump sube a una arena de sumo en Japón y la Red estalla en burlas
- La Casa Blanca afirma que el FBI incurrió en corrupción para "derribar y perjudicar" a Trump
- Empresa china afirma haber creado un prototipo de un vehículo que podría viajar hasta 500 kilómetros impulsado solo por agua
- Se somete a una prueba de ADN y se convierte en multimillonario
- Theresa May dejará su cargo el 7 de junio por no poder ejecutar el Brexit
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more
business-wars from US-NATO allies
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PRESS TV
Resume of Global News described by Iranian observers..
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