ND MAY 23 19 SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social
+ Capit-compet in Eco
ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they
documented with graphics
"Growth
Scare" -
PMIs in Japan, Europe, and US
all collapsed and risk-asset markets are suddenly waking from their delusions.
Well that
escalated quickly
WTI Crude
crashed to a $57 handle (its worst day of 2019)...
See Chart:
US
equities suffered after Huawei headlines signaled US-China trade tensions are
escalating fast (and a base-case 'deal' is disappearing). "Trade
War"-related stocks have given up over half their
post-December-collapse gains...
See Chart:
And as,
Bloomberg's Sarah Ponczek notes, investors haven’t been this keen to short
the U.S. stock market since the Federal Reserve started raising interest rates.
See Chart:
Short interest as a
percentage of shares outstanding on the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust, or
SPY, climbed as high as 7% this week, according to data from IHS Markit Ltd.
That’s the highest share since 2015, when the benchmark gauge for American
equities slipped into a correction as Fed officials began boosting rates from
near zero.
“There are some clouds forming on the horizon,”
China was ugly overnight as Huawei headlines hit...
Europe was ugly, not helped by dismal confidence and PMIs in Germany
And US equities were a bloodbath with tech wrecking once
again...Trannies are the worst on the week, and The Dow is outperforming
(though all are red on the week)...
See Chart:
This was
the biggest buy program in over a week at 320pmET (after the biggest sell at
the open since January)... All is possible by printing dollars from the
thin air
See Chart:
NYSE
Uptick-Downtick
Get the
normal size in the source below.. This chart has been damaged intentionally
Remember: we live in a free Nation (for billionaires) not for you.
Small Caps
plunged to their lowest since January...
This is
the biggest two-day drop in "Most Shorted" stocks since the Dec
24th lows...
See Chart:
And
overall tech stocks wrecked...
See Chart:
Before we leave
equity land, this stunning chart from Bloomberg strategist Cameron Crise
exposes the odd regime shift of the last few
weeks... Day after day, we see overnight selling pressure, only to be bid back
at the cash open. One could be forgiven for thinking the trade war is
being played out between The Plunge Protection Team and The National Team battling to show how trade tensions are not affecting
their stock markets. Think we're crazy?
The US stock markets are sliding as investors fear over China-US trade
war. The real situation could be even worse. The only room left for manoeuvre
is the leaders of the two countries still maintain personal respect for each
other.
But, as Crise
notes, these huge opening down gaps are pretty
clearly a sign of trouble, and we're now at the point that we've exceeded
anything observed during the crisis...
See Chart:
Treasury
yields tumbled on the day...
See Chart:
Across the
curve this was new cycle lows for yields (5Y and 30Y lowest since Dec
2017, 10Y lowest since Nov 2017, 2Y lowest since Feb 2018)...
See Chart:
The 10Y
Yield plunged below 2.30%!!
See Chart:
The yield
curve crashed back into inversion...
See Chart:
Finally,
before we leave rates-land, market expectations for 2019 Fed rate actions have
collapsed to a stunning 46bps rate-cut expectation...
See Chart:
Market-
implied 2019 Fed Rate- Change
Expectations
The DXY
Dollar Index shot up overnight to fresh 24-month highs, and then plunged...
See Chart:
DXY Dollar
Index
Gold
jumped against the yuan and dollar...
See Chart:
Are we seeing a similar breakdown of various "leading" market
based indicators as last summer, before the equity market crash in Q4?
See Chart:
Early warning
indicators
….
----
----
"there
are certain days when the price action itself is the key development – Thursday
fits this characterization."
What was behind today's furious buying and/or short-covering
frenzy in US Treasurys, which sent the 10Y yield briefly below 2.30%, the
lowest since 2017, inverted the 3M-10Y curve and pushed
all bond yields left of the 30Y below the Fed Funds rate?
See Chart:
That was the question on every bond trader's lips today,
when as stocks were tumbling, capital seemed to flood into rates. One
explanation, or attempt thereof, came from BMO's Ian Lyngen, who writes that
"there are certain days when the
price action itself is the key development – Thursday fits this
characterization." In short, the price made the price,
which makes sense since there was no notable, fundamental developments to
justify the third biggest percentage drop in 10Y yields in the past 12 months.
The chart below shows that as of
today, the market is pricing in an average inflation rate of 1.76% over the
next 10 years, a sharp drop from the 1.98% on April 25.
See Chart:
10-Y Breakevens
Which is odd, considering that an increasingly
greater number of strategists concede that a full
blown trade war which includes tariffs on all Chinese exports, would result in
sharply higher, if "transitory" inflation.
See Chart:
Further escalation would have much
larger effects on core inflation
In any case, Ian Lyngen, who
writes that "there are certain days when the price action itself is the key
development – Thursday fits this characterization." continues,
noting that "if the fall in
inflation compensation continues, expect the Fed to respond in force,
unlike other central banks, they still have significant monetary policy space
to employ. At this juncture, that means rate cuts, or more precisely guidance
toward rate cuts. We’re skeptical that a June policy adjustment is seriously on
the table outside a true collapse in inflation expectations in the next four
weeks, though even a hint
from Powell that easing is coming later in 2019 should serve to temporarily
reassert inflation compensation toward a more comfortable level.
That being said, one possible explanation of today’s price
action – though not one we subscribe to – is a monetary policy error trade as
the Fed is letting itself get behind the curve. To this point, the May FOMC
Minutes contained no discussion of cuts, but it’s important to emphasize how stale that
meeting’s context was as it occurred before the recent deterioration in talks
between Washington and Beijing. Uncertainty looms large at this
point, leading to our increasingly
high conviction that real yields are set to move a leg lower. This repricing may end up being
thematic in the lead up to the June FOMC meeting."
The BMO strategist the notes that he was asked what was
responsible for the aggressive bidding behavior, and offers two related
explanations for the strong result.
- Firstly, with inflation compensation so low – 5-year breakevens are implying 1.3% PCE on average until 2024 – there is at least some of a “only one way to go from here” mentality. Let us not forget the trade war and what that might mean for pricing pressures and any flow through tariffs may have into CPI. This would open the possibility of TIPS outperforming their nominal cousins in coming weeks.
- Secondly, from fundamental perspective, at 57 bp over ten years, the inflation protected security surely holds an abundance of appeal give the list of things that can move real yields meaningfully higher at this stage seems to be growing shorter. Rather, a look at real rates since the end of March shows a decided move sideways and a drop to a new lower plateau as the new path of least resistance. Keep in mind that 5-year real yields were negative less than two years ago, and it’s a very live possibility that they may fall below 0 bp before the end of the year.
Another interesting point: while the rate rally occurred
with strong volumes as cash traded at 131% of the 10-day moving average, there
was no particular sense of panic in the move. But as Lyngen notes, this is not
to say that no major asset classes are exhibiting dramatic trading behavior. Indeed, one
point of recent selling has been WTI – down nearly 6% on Thursday, 13% from
recent highs, and 21% YoY. Although
it’s fair that prices are up YTD, this overstates the optimism surrounding
global growth. Indeed, a broader look at the Bloomberg commodity index shows a
modest increase of only 2% YTD, vs. a YoY drop of 14%. As BMO summarizes, "This is yet
another disinflationary impulse for the Fed to contend with."
One final observation, echoing what Michael Every said
earlier, is that "for
all the volatility and activity Thursday in the Treasury market – its
intriguing that one asset in particular was little changed, the renminbi." This is how Lyngen explains this bizarre calm
in the currency which so many expect will make a run fro 7.00:
The stabilization this week contrasts sharply with the
narrative of deteriorating trade negotiations which is spilling over into US
rates and risk assets. This indicates a willingness for now to hold the line
below the symbolic 7-handle.
The slightly
more cynical take from Rabobank's Every is below:
Ladies and gentlemen, the Tech Cold War has begun. Of course, there was
no reaction from CNH this morning despite China’s industrial crème-de-la-crème
about to be potentially defenestrated. But, as I keep stating, that underlines the whole problem
And so, with hopes that the above makes sense in explaining
today's violent move in the world's most liquidity security, Lyngen concludes
that all of this happens ahead of the long weekend "as a possible bullish risk in coming
weeks that would catalyze a rather sharp flight-to-quality and likely push part
of the Treasury market back below 2%. "
….
----
----
Expert
calls 90% of pot stocks frauds. Former hedge fund manager reveals the 10% most
likely to succeed.
====
"At 25 percent, we will need topass on the pricing to our consumers."
====
US
DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds
& corruption. Urge cambio
Must read as: Pelosi is agaisnt the impeach of Trump
'Bring it
Nancy'
====
Abuse + Abuse = fascism. This is what J Assange is being
suffering
The worst
fears of Assange's legal team have just been confirmed.
====
Nothing new. A report suggested that Penta & Saudi
jihadist participate in 9/11
Tax-funded DoD research is the backbone of the
modern, hi-tech economy. But
these technologies are dual-use. The companies that many of us take for granted
are connected directly to the US
military-intelligence complex.
====
US-WORLD ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State
socialis+K-, D rest in limbo
With regional tensions already high, the risks of an incident between U.S. and Chinese forcescould increase
even further...
Markets are still
coming to grips with the reality of the trade war after many months of
complacency.
The first
trade war since the 1930s has escalated and may continue for years to come.
Trump has never wavered in his belief that China and other countries are
taking advantage of the U.S.’ low tariffs to export to the U.S., hurt U.S.
industry and steal U.S. jobs and intellectual property.
This month the conventional wisdom proved wrong — again —
and the stock market has now been forced to shift its
view. Just look at the market reaction since Trump began tweeting that a deal
was unlikely earlier this month.
Yesterday the market recovered some of Monday’s heavy
losses. But I don’t place much stock in yesterday’s market rally. There are fundamental differences
in the U.S. and Chinese positions that cannot easily be negotiated away.
But today,
China has much more leverage than Japan ever had. China is also in a much more adversarial posture toward the
U.S. than Japan was. The U.S. basically defends Japan and maintains several
military bases on Japanese territory. Despite some local frictions, Japan
welcomes the U.S. presence as a counter to Chinese ambitions in the region.
These
realities mean that China will not acquiesce but will retaliate for any actions
taken by the U.S.
With regional tensions already high, the risks of an incident between U.S. and Chinese
forces could increase even further.
One of my major theses is that in times of too much debt and
too little growth, countries resort first to currency wars and then to trade
wars and then finally to shooting wars to steal growth from trading partners
and geopolitical rivals.
The problem with currency wars is
that all advantage is temporary and is quickly erased by retaliation.
Not only is the world not better off, but it is worse off because of the costs
and uncertainty resulting from the currency manipulations. Eventually, the world wakes up to this reality and moves to
the trade war stage. Then to the shooting war stage.
This new trade war
will get ugly fast and the world economy, which is already slowing, will be collateral
damage.
Markets
still are not fully prepared for this, but
you can be. Now is a good time to increase your cash allocation to reduce
volatility and increase your exposure to gold as a safe haven.
Let’s pray
the shooting wars are not hot on the heels of this coming trade war.
See Chart:
What ca a
financial crisis lead to?
….
SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-05-23/trump-vs-world-jim-rickards-warns-will-get-ugly-fast
----
----
"You
can have your Frankfurter, and eat it too."
====
"If
you’re a Chinese company, there’s no way in hell you’re buying anything in the
U.S., not even the trash can, for the foreseeable future."
====
DARPA is seeking
noninvasive ways “to achieve high levels of
brain-system communications without surgery.” The techniques would “allow precise, high-quality connections to specific neurons
or groups of neurons.”
====
Common problem to face together without WW3
It looks like global food
production could be well below expectations in 2019, and that could
spell big trouble in
the months ahead...
====
Ladies and
gentlemen, the Tech Cold War has begun.
====
SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO
..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars & danger of WW3
----
----
NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to neo-fascist regimes &
terrorist imperial chaos
REBELION
====
ALAI ORG
====
RT EN
ESPAÑOL
- Trump: "Huawei es algo muy peligroso"
- El jefe del Estado Mayor iraní promete una "respuesta dura, aplastante y devastadora" si su país es agredido
- Chinos renuncian en masa a sus iPhones en favor de Huawei
- La brutalidad de las 'guarimbas' opositoras en dos muertes que aún conmocionan a Venezuela
- "El fascismo moderno está saliendo al descubierto": Periodistas reaccionan tras los nuevos cargos criminales contra Assange
- Más allá de EE.UU.: ¿Quién empezó la caza сontra Huawei y por qué temen al gigante tecnológico asiático?
- Qué es el microbioma y por qué abre la puerta a curar diversas enfermedades
- Un masivo asteroide con 'luna' propia se aproximará a la Tierra esta semana
- Estas son las principales revelaciones de WikiLeaks
- Keiser Report "El dólar es un edificio a punto de someterse a una voladura controlada"
----
----
COUNTER PUNCH
Analysis on US Politics & Geopolitics
Kenn Orphan The Belligerence of
Empire
Tom Engelhardt Living
in a Nation of Political Narcissists
Chuck Collins Ending
the Generational Abuse of Student Debt
Robert J. Burrowes Understanding
NATO, Ending War
----
----
GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more
business-wars from US-NATO allies
----
----
DEMOCRACY NOW
Amy Goodman’ team
----
----
PRESS TV
Resume of Global News described by Iranian observers..
This is the most obscene anti-fem attack on a human been.
She has been converted in an object to be used for Econ
&
Political gains.This is fascist-terrorism never seen in
W-hist.
Trump just renounced to be American. He must be impeached
Must read as: Pelosi is begging NO to impeach Trump
Both Dems & Reps go hand on hand supporting fascist wars
abroad
----
===
No hay comentarios:
Publicar un comentario