ND MAY 7 19 SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social
+ Capit-compet in Eco
ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they
documented with graphics
The 2019 market uptrend
is officially shattered...
The $NDX rising wedge, most recently
I outlined it in Danger Charts:
See Chart:
Northman trader.com
In the same article I pointed to the
$VIX wedge compression, oh so similar to the previous compression phases we’ve
seen in recent years:
See Chart:
And boy, did the $VIX release a lot of energy coming out of
the pattern
A chart that was again highlighted in Trend Breaks:
sent a signal that something was technically amiss, a
leading indicator if you will. Of course we saw further
bounce action in it, but the signal produced sizable results by filling 2 of
the lower gaps:
See Chart: same author
The $DJIA specifically here is at an
interesting spot everyone should be aware of. Unlike $SPX and $NDX it never
made a new high and all of a sudden the rejection here raises larger concerns:
See Chart:
Hence further downside risk must be considered as well,
especially since these patterns above have a lot of room to go lower should
markets turn in earnest. While the $VIX is getting
short term overbought $ES suggests risk of a repeat of February 2018 and
October 2018:
See Chart:
Given the massive run markets have experienced in 2019 such
a corrective move, should it unfold, should not surprise. Markets are now short
term oversold and bounces and rallies are to be expected, but this week’s
binary market event will likely decide the next big move into next week.
Be aware though, however these trade talks turns out market
participants are on notice: The 2019 trend is officially shattered and the
charts told you ahead of time that it was coming. Bulls
have a lot of technical damage to repair and require new highs or are at risk
of being confronted with major potential topping patterns.
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The interest rate needed to balance the “real economy” is significantly lower than that which balances the
“financial economy.” ...Powell has been forced to choose. Either
stop a bubble and crush the economy...
Although I have long
poked fun (good naturedly of course!) at the forecasts for another 2008 Great
Financial Crisis, I wanted to highlight an interesting development that has me scratching
my head wondering if I am being too cavalier.
This Federal Reserve
report is a big deal. The language makes it clear they are worried about
the rising amount of private sector debt.
And for good reason. Take a gander
at this terrific chart from Bloomberg (G #BTV 6468 for BB users):
See Chart:
Credit MRKETs Beware :US Copr debt
to GDP is at record high
Powell
gave up on trying to balance the financial economy
Don’t
believe me? The chart that best illustrates the dramatic change in Fed policy
under Powell’s tenure is the 2-year TIPS yield.
See Chart:
Financial
economy will be the outlet valve
The interest rate
needed to balance the “real economy” is significantly
lower than that which balances the “financial economy.” Powell
has been forced to choose. Either stop a bubble and
crush the economy. Or try to let the economy grow and potentially create
another bubble in the process.
….
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"Reality
is setting in that they are not going to get the master deal, the grand deal
that they are hoping for and there’s a lot of work to be done."
“Reality is setting in that they are not going to get the master deal, the grand deal that they are hoping for and there’s a lot of work to be done,” Oliver Pursche, Bruderman Asset Management’s chief market strategist, told Bloomberg TV. “Our best guess is that these tariffs will be implemented on Friday, but will then be reversed relatively quickly.’’
As a result of the recent selling in Europe, the Stoxx 600 upward channel has now been broken, and more
downside is to be expected.
In FX, the euro erased an advance
after German factory orders rebounded less than economists’ forecasts
in March; bonds in the region rose.
See Chart:
GERMAN Factory Orders
…
SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-05-07/futures-resume-slide-traders-brace-trade-war-impact
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"I hope that the next crisis
is not of the same sort as the last one."
Surprise!
The European Commission slashed
previously hope-filled economic growth forecasts for the region this morning.
See Chart:
Slower Momentum: The EU cut its
predictions for Econ growth
The cut prompted buying in bonds
(with Bund and Treasury yields sliding)...
See Chart:
….
SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-05-07/stocks-yields-extend-drop-after-eu-slashes-growth-outlook
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"...Europe seem totally
incapable of addressing their failing financial sector. And that's not good for anyone... represents a smoldering threat to global financial
stability."
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A
correction, like Winter, is coming...
See Chart:
A trade war would wipe out Tax Cut
Boost
As I updated this
past weekend:
See Chart:
Downside Revisions wipe out Tax cuts benefits
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LYFT stock
briefly surged... then tumbled as investors were shocked by the ridiculous loss
reported by the ride-sharing company in the first quarter.
The chart below visualizes this ridiculous explosion in the
company's net loss:
See Chart:
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My Introduction:
Here an open proposal for WW3: “It’s economic warfare in which the bombs go
up and come straight back down.” The most stupid arg so
far war. He accept that China is right in locking their dollar to face the
crisis; he is right also saying that Trump’ tariffs won’t make China’ Econ to
implode.. but the billonaires need FED to recycle the fake Econ.. even when
pumping more dollar & maximizing the debt “is the stupidest thing you can
do” said this author to Trump… so: bomb
china is the solution?. That will be the
worst stupid thing Trump can do.
The
only solution is to design a post-neoliberal agenda. How? By changing the
policy of manufacturing weapons and wars abroad. If Trump cannot de-militarize
his policy .. he will be in the trush-pin of history, and even if he win the
next election he won’t have chance for political legitimacy and right
governability. His only chance will be FASCISM
and that will be contest massively inside & abroad. The coming election
will be a waste of time that will worsen our political crisis. My suggestion to
Trump is: make a reliable, honest and emergency deal to dismantle nuke power
world-wide starting with the 6 superpower nation (UK-France & Germany).
Then we can have money to solve many world problem and start a real
post-neoliberal Econ. How to start a reliable post neoliberal policy : RESHUFFLE YOU EXECUTIVE CABINET, you don’t the mess
Pompeo & Bolton are creating in your government. Our nation don’t need
them, the world neither
…
"It’s economic warfare in which the bombs go up and come straight back down..."
“Dollars Locked
and Loaded
That [[ is the effect and explain]]
the impetus to weaponize the U.S. dollar through trade and hybrid warfare comes
from this corner of Trump’s administration is not news. Neither is Trump’s
impulsiveness, cravenness and inability to think systemically.
What is
news, however, is that Trump thinks he has the leverage here because the
S&P 500 is flirting with a new all-time high. As I said above, Trump is an
economic ignoramus.
Tariffs won’t solve
this.
This is why Trump is a coward. He
doesn’t have the courage to confront this. He just blames everyone else for not
paying their fair share. He’s focused the anger and frustration of Americans
impoverished by these policies on everyone else.
There is
no issue that gets people more angry with me among Trump supporters ripping him
on tariffs. It’s insane how deeply this idea is
embedded.
It’s
economic warfare in which the bombs go up and come straight back down.
Trump’s Market
Problem
He thinks
the stock market is the weather vane of his presidency and that when it’s
rising he can make outrageous demands and when it’s falling he has to tack
against it.
For move of the second half of 2018 we saw got used to three
sigma or grater movements in the Dow. This is the real effect of political and
policy uncertainty. And if Trump’s goal is a rising stock market someone should
show him this chart. 2017 is what you want, Don, not 2018.
Because,
for all intents and purposes, it hasn’t gone anywhere in over a year.
The U.S. share
market is rising precisely because he has embarked on a
mad policy of weaponizing the dollar. He thinks there is no possible way anyone
can get out of using the dollar and therefore this won’t hurt him or the U.S.
in the long run.
In the short run he’s right. Dollar liquidity is causing
massive capital flight into U.S. assets. But it isn’t coming here necessarily
as long-term investment.
Tariffs
Have Consequences
The problem is he
forgets that he’s the one subject to an election while China’s leadership is
not. Everything China has done politically under
Xi Jinping has been to safeguard the Chinese state in the event of a crisis.
China’s not going to
implode over these tariffs. It will give Xi and his
central bank the opportunity to devalue the yuan in response to the slower flow
of dollars. It has to protect the lion’s share of its trade with Southeast Asia
and Europe whose currencies are already in trouble.
If global trade is
the M0 of the world then restricting it at a time of
maximal dollar-based debt capacity is the stupidest thing you can do if your
goal is a lower dollar and trade balance with China.
We don’t need a lower dollar. We need a dollar that buys
more value at home. And that can’t happen with
the Fed and Treasury pumping money in while choking us
with the debt behind it.”
READ THE FULL ARTICLE.. these are only extracts
…
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US
DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds
& corruption. Urge cambio
Trump TIT FOR TAT:
The tax
breaks are driving even more Democrats to seek answers in socialist policies.
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“Millions of able-bodied, working-age adults
continue to collect food stamps without working or even looking for work. Our
goal is to move these Americans from dependence to independence."
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Will they,
or will they not send, a team to the US, and if the Chinese don't go, how
conciliatory/aggressive will Trump be to keep a trade deal together? It's
going to make for fascinating soap opera!
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This is an economy headed down,
not up...
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US-WORLD ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State
socialis+K-, D rest in limbo
MARKET TURMOIL CONTINUES AFTER LIU CONFIRMS
WASHINGTON VISIT; BEIJING "PREPARED FOR TALKS BREAKDOWN"
But even
after the Liu news broke, US stock futures, which had briefly trimmed their
losses overnight, dumped once again.
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Pompeo
cited unknown "pressing issues."
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO
..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars & danger of WW3
--Un rápido jaque-mate d Dems a Trump
seria la ABSTENTION, eso sí lo mata
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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to
neo-fascist regimes & terrorist imperial chaos
REBELION
PAL:
ejecuc extrajudic ISR viola
la Franja de Gaza y en 2 días mata 23 Pal
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ALAI ORG
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RT EN
ESPAÑOL
- Irán abandona parcialmente el acuerdo nuclear y da 60 días de plazo para negociar
- ¿Cómo justificó EE.UU. el envío de su portaviones a Oriente Medio y cómo explica Irán este despliegue?
- La ANC de Venezuela allana la inmunidad de siete diputados opositores por conspiración y traición a la patria
- EE.UU. remueve todas las sanciones a exjefe de Inteligencia venezolana que decidió respaldar a Guaidó
- Reportan una fuerte explosión en la capital de Afganistán
- Francia: "No habría nada peor que la salida de Irán del acuerdo nuclear"
- NYT: Trump perdió en una década casi 1.200 millones de dólares
- Lockheed Martin presenta un proy de misil hipersónico para cazas F-35C
- Keiser Report "US es el número 1 en el mundo en meter person a la cárcel"
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INFORMATION CLEARING HOUSE
Deep on the US political crisis: neofascism & internal
conflicts that favor WW3
-'We need to save his life': By RT "it
is a matter of life and death."
- After nearly two months in jail, Chelsea
Manning submits powerful appeal for release
By Niles Niemuth
By Niles Niemuth
- Is Bolton Steering Trump Into War With Iran? By Patrick J. Buchanan
- Does Trump Have Control of His Government, or
Is It His Government?
By Paul Craig Roberts
By Paul Craig Roberts
- Pence A Christian? Pompeo?: There Are
Christians Who Love and Christians Who Hate
Must Read - By Fred Reed
Must Read - By Fred Reed
- 1,000 Israeli Soldiers To Arrive in Honduras
to Train Troops, Police on Border Protection By teleSUR
- How US and Foreign Intel Agencies Interfered
in a US Election By Larry C.
Johnson
Obama-Hillary C target Trump and paint him as a Russian stooge.
Dems still on it.
- Boondoggle, Inc: Making Sense of the $1.25
Trillion National Security State Budget
By William D. Hartung and Mandy Smithberger
By William D. Hartung and Mandy Smithberger
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COUNTER PUNCH
Analysis on US Politics & Geopolitics
Manuel E. Yepe From
Madero to Maduro in Latin America
Dan Corjescu It‘s
Globalization, Stupid!
Andrew Moss Getting
It Right on Immigration
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more
business-wars from US-NATO allies
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DEMOCRACY NOW
Amy Goodman’ team
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PRESS TV
Resume of Global News described by Iranian observers..
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