miércoles, 8 de mayo de 2019

ND MAY 7 19 SIT EC y POL



ND MAY 7 19  SIT EC y POL 
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco


ZERO HEDGE  ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics


The 2019 market uptrend is officially shattered...

The $NDX rising wedge, most recently I outlined it in Danger Charts:
See Chart:
Northman trader.com

In the same article I pointed to the $VIX wedge compression, oh so similar to the previous compression phases we’ve seen in recent years:
See Chart:

And boy, did the $VIX release a lot of energy coming out of the pattern

A chart that was again highlighted in Trend Breaks:
sent a signal that something was technically amiss, a leading indicator if you will. Of course we saw further bounce action in it, but the signal produced sizable results by filling 2 of the lower gaps:

See Chart: same author


The $DJIA specifically here is at an interesting spot everyone should be aware of. Unlike $SPX and $NDX it never made a new high and all of a sudden the rejection here raises larger concerns:
See Chart:


Hence further downside risk must be considered as well, especially since these patterns above have a lot of room to go lower should markets turn in earnest. While the $VIX is getting short term overbought $ES suggests risk of a repeat of February 2018 and October 2018:

See Chart:

Given the massive run markets have experienced in 2019 such a corrective move, should it unfold, should not surprise. Markets are now short term oversold and bounces and rallies are to be expected, but this week’s binary market event will likely decide the next big move into next week.

Be aware though, however these trade talks turns out market participants are on notice: The 2019 trend is officially shattered and the charts told you ahead of time that it was coming. Bulls have a lot of technical damage to repair and require new highs or are at risk of being confronted with major potential topping patterns.
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The interest rate needed to balance the “real economy” is significantly lower than that which balances the “financial economy.” ...Powell has been forced to choose. Either stop a bubble and crush the economy...

Although I have long poked fun (good naturedly of course!) at the forecasts for another 2008 Great Financial Crisis, I wanted to highlight an interesting development that has me scratching my head wondering if I am being too cavalier.

This Federal Reserve report is a big deal. The language makes it clear they are worried about the rising amount of private sector debt.

And for good reason. Take a gander at this terrific chart from Bloomberg (G #BTV 6468 for BB users):
See Chart:
Credit MRKETs Beware :US Copr debt to GDP is at record high


Powell gave up on trying to balance the financial economy

Don’t believe me? The chart that best illustrates the dramatic change in Fed policy under Powell’s tenure is the 2-year TIPS yield.
See Chart:


Financial economy will be the outlet valve 

The interest rate needed to balance the “real economy” is significantly lower than that which balances the “financial economy.” Powell has been forced to choose. Either stop a bubble and crush the economy. Or try to let the economy grow and potentially create another bubble in the process.
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"Reality is setting in that they are not going to get the master deal, the grand deal that they are hoping for and there’s a lot of work to be done."

“Reality is setting in that they are not going to get the master deal, the grand deal that they are hoping for and there’s a lot of work to be done,” Oliver Pursche, Bruderman Asset Management’s chief market strategist, told Bloomberg TV. “Our best guess is that these tariffs will be implemented on Friday, but will then be reversed relatively quickly.’’

As a result of the recent selling in Europe, the Stoxx 600 upward channel has now been broken, and more downside is to be expected.

In FX, the euro erased an advance after German factory orders rebounded less than economists’ forecasts in March; bonds in the region rose.

See Chart:
GERMAN Factory Orders
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"I hope that the next crisis is not of the same sort as the last one."

Surprise!

The European Commission slashed previously hope-filled economic growth forecasts for the region this morning.
See Chart:
Slower Momentum: The EU cut its predictions for Econ growth


The cut prompted buying in bonds (with Bund and Treasury yields sliding)...
See Chart:
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"...Europe seem totally incapable of addressing their failing financial sector. And that's not good for anyone... represents a smoldering threat to global financial stability."
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A correction, like Winter, is coming...

See Chart:
A trade war would wipe out Tax Cut Boost


As I updated this past weekend:
See Chart:
Downside Revisions wipe out Tax cuts benefits
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LYFT stock briefly surged... then tumbled as investors were shocked by the ridiculous loss reported by the ride-sharing company in the first quarter.

The chart below visualizes this ridiculous explosion in the company's net loss:
See Chart:
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My Introduction:

Here an open proposal for WW3: It’s economic warfare in which the bombs go up and come straight back down.” The most stupid arg so far war. He accept that China is right in locking their dollar to face the crisis; he is right also saying that Trump’ tariffs won’t make China’ Econ to implode.. but the billonaires need FED to recycle the fake Econ.. even when pumping more dollar & maximizing the debt “is the stupidest thing you can do”  said this author to Trump… so: bomb china is the solution?.  That will be the worst stupid thing Trump can do.

 The only solution is to design a post-neoliberal agenda. How? By changing the policy of manufacturing weapons and wars abroad. If Trump cannot de-militarize his policy .. he will be in the trush-pin of history, and even if he win the next election he won’t have chance for political legitimacy and right governability. His only chance will be FASCISM and that will be contest massively inside & abroad. The coming election will be a waste of time that will worsen our political crisis. My suggestion to Trump is: make a reliable, honest and emergency deal to dismantle nuke power world-wide starting with the 6 superpower nation (UK-France & Germany). Then we can have money to solve many world problem and start a real post-neoliberal Econ. How to start a reliable post neoliberal policy : RESHUFFLE YOU EXECUTIVE CABINET, you don’t the mess Pompeo & Bolton are creating in your government. Our nation don’t need them, the world neither


"It’s economic warfare in which the bombs go up and come straight back down..."

“Dollars Locked and Loaded

That [[ is the effect and explain]] the impetus to weaponize the U.S. dollar through trade and hybrid warfare comes from this corner of Trump’s administration is not news. Neither is Trump’s impulsiveness, cravenness and inability to think systemically.

What is news, however, is that Trump thinks he has the leverage here because the S&P 500 is flirting with a new all-time high. As I said above, Trump is an economic ignoramus.

Tariffs won’t solve this.

This is why Trump is a coward. He doesn’t have the courage to confront this. He just blames everyone else for not paying their fair share. He’s focused the anger and frustration of Americans impoverished by these policies on everyone else.

There is no issue that gets people more angry with me among Trump supporters ripping him on tariffs. It’s insane how deeply this idea is embedded.

It’s economic warfare in which the bombs go up and come straight back down.

Trump’s Market Problem

He thinks the stock market is the weather vane of his presidency and that when it’s rising he can make outrageous demands and when it’s falling he has to tack against it.

For move of the second half of 2018 we saw got used to three sigma or grater movements in the Dow. This is the real effect of political and policy uncertainty. And if Trump’s goal is a rising stock market someone should show him this chart. 2017 is what you want, Don, not 2018.

Because, for all intents and purposes, it hasn’t gone anywhere in over a year.

The U.S. share market is rising precisely because he has embarked on a mad policy of weaponizing the dollar. He thinks there is no possible way anyone can get out of using the dollar and therefore this won’t hurt him or the U.S. in the long run.

In the short run he’s right. Dollar liquidity is causing massive capital flight into U.S. assets. But it isn’t coming here necessarily as long-term investment.

Tariffs Have Consequences

The problem is he forgets that he’s the one subject to an election while China’s leadership is not. Everything China has done politically under Xi Jinping has been to safeguard the Chinese state in the event of a crisis.
China’s not going to implode over these tariffs. It will give Xi and his central bank the opportunity to devalue the yuan in response to the slower flow of dollars. It has to protect the lion’s share of its trade with Southeast Asia and Europe whose currencies are already in trouble.

If global trade is the M0 of the world then restricting it at a time of maximal dollar-based debt capacity is the stupidest thing you can do if your goal is a lower dollar and trade balance with China.

We don’t need a lower dollar. We need a dollar that buys more value at home. And that can’t happen with the Fed and Treasury pumping money in while choking us with the debt behind it.”

READ THE FULL ARTICLE.. these are only extracts
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US  DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambio


Trump TIT FOR TAT:
The tax breaks are driving even more Democrats to seek answers in socialist policies. 
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 “Millions of able-bodied, working-age adults continue to collect food stamps without working or even looking for work. Our goal is to move these Americans from dependence to independence."
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Will they, or will they not send, a team to the US, and if the Chinese don't go, how conciliatory/aggressive will Trump be to keep a trade deal together?  It's going to make for fascinating soap opera!
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This is an economy headed down, not up...
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US-WORLD  ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State socialis+K-, D rest in limbo



But even after the Liu news broke, US stock futures, which had briefly trimmed their losses overnight, dumped once again.
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Pompeo cited unknown "pressing issues."
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO  ..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars & danger of WW3


--Un rápido jaque-mate d Dems a Trump seria la ABSTENTION, eso sí lo mata
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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to neo-fascist regimes & terrorist imperial chaos

REBELION

Ecol: El referéndum (fábula)  Gustavo Duch
Cuba: Desafío formidable  Ricardo Torres
Cuba: Nunca volvimos a ser los mismos  Mildred de la Torre y Ana Vera
ARG: Panor polít-sindical  ¿Tocamos fondo?  Mario Hernandez
COL: Duerme, duerme, negrito  Luz Marina López Espinosa
VEN: Resistir a la tiranía mundial  Iván Márquez  RU y China apoyan
PAL: Infancia Palestina Prisionera:  La vegüenza del siglo Ramón Pedregal
Spain: Relevo en las hegemonías y distensión  Antonio Santamaría
USA: El Comando Sur de gira en escenario caliente  Tamara L y Silvina R

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ALAI ORG

          Por Mariana Álvarez Orellana

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RT EN ESPAÑOL 

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INFORMATION CLEARING HOUSE
Deep on the US political crisis: neofascism & internal conflicts that favor WW3

-'We need to save his life':  By RT  "it is a matter of life and death."  
  Obama-Hillary C target Trump and paint him as a Russian stooge. Dems still on it.
- Is the United States a democracy?  By Eric Zuesse  [[ NO NOW ]]
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COUNTER PUNCH
Analysis on US Politics & Geopolitics

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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more business-wars from US-NATO  allies

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DEMOCRACY NOW
Amy Goodman’  team

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PRESS TV
Resume of Global News described by Iranian observers..


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