SEP 9 20 ND SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco
ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics
STOCKS BOUNCE OFF CRITICAL SUPPORT AFTER FASTEST 'CORRECTION' FROM RECORD HIGH IN HISTORY
What goes down, must come back with a vengeance in this new normal and so stocks did, but Nasdaq is still down 8% from highs...
See Chart:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2020-09-09_12-58-01.jpg?itok=pNfRAYKJ
After the Nasdaq's 10% collapse in 3 days (the fastest record high to correction plunge in history)...
See Chart:
NASDAG DRAW DOWN
See Tweeter: https://twitter.com/biancoresearch/status/1303701519393591299/photo/1
Despite bad news on COVD vaccines, everything came roaring back today (best day for Nasdaq since April), with The Dow managing to get back to green from Friday's close. Note some late day weakness as MSFT/WMT faded on TikTok sale chatter...
See Chart:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2020-09-09_13-00-04.jpg?itok=59Af0pHs
After Nasdaq and Small Caps bounced perfectly off their 50DMAs...
See Charts:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2020-09-09_12-04-50.jpg?itok=vcUiMMtB
Just in case you're shocked, shocked, at the selloff, Morgan Stanley lays out the key catalysts for weakness...
- Lack of progress on CARES 2 0 (consensus still sees $1.5-$2T getting passed although even Goldman is becoming more skeptical)
- Gamma reset in megacap Tech due to the Softbank doxxing (massive upside vol structures should begin to roll off, however)
- Record equity issuance upcoming ($308BN so far YTD in the US or the 100th %-ile back to 2008)
- September trading seasonality (see MSZZMOMO SEAG on Bloomberg)
- Diminishing systematic bid (Morgan Stanley now sees only a few $B of global equities to buy vs prior growth estimates)
- Diminishing bid from retail (next round of stimulus checks may matter)
- Elevated HE exposure (nets and gross at the 66th and 89th %-ile per MS PB Cotent)
- Mutual fund year-end (will we finally see outflows/profit-taking if tax-loss-selling was pulled forward in August?)
- Election permutations (Senate races should remain in focus for those in fear of new tax proposals)
- US-China re-escalation (hence focus on SMIC over the weekend)
- Setbacks in the reopening (second wave?)
"Inconceivable!" we know!!
Of course the momo names ruled the rebound...
TSLA up 10%...
See Chart:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2020-09-09_12-27-25.jpg?itok=GR6pPppW
AAPL bounced too...
See Chart:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2020-09-09_12-28-21.jpg?itok=UKqT_n-O
As stocks surged, bonds were dumped with the long-end underperforming...
See Chart:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfm5B40.jpg?itok=WhritjUS
10Y Yields reached back up to 70bps after an ugly auction...
See Chart:
USR 10Y Yield
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfmD684.jpg?itok=p_PkFOIj
The B-dollar Index was monkey-hammered lower (EUR gains)..
See Chart:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/dave.jpg?itok=mW3naMJW
And as the dollar tanked, gold futures rallied back above $1950...
See Chart:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2020-09-09_12-12-59.jpg?itok=q--uyhgV
Oil rebounded with WTI back above $38 ahead of tonight's API inventory data...
See Chart:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2020-09-09_12-17-54.jpg?itok=lTTErmUZ
Finally, it still ain't cheap!!!
See Chart:
Wilshire 500 / US GDP
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfmF066.jpg?itok=ENU6VWZO
….
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INFLATION IS STEALTH AUSTERITY
Rather than decry austerity, which demands an open political discussion of trade-offs, we should decry inflation's stealthy reduction of purchasing power...
Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,
Consider $1,200 in wages, unemployment, stimulus, Social Security payment, etc. If this payment gets cut by 10%--$120--as a result of austerity, pay cut, reduction in hours worked, etc., recipients scream bloody murder.
But if inflation reduces the purchasing power of the $1,200 by 10%, nobody does anything but grumble that "prices keep rising while my income stays the same." This is the classic boiled frog syndrome: inflation is like the heat being turned up so gradually that the poor frog doesn't realize he's about to expire.
Inflation is stealthy because the loss of purchasing power is difficult to monitor.
Governments and central banks love inflation because the theft goes unnoticed. The public tolerates inflation because it's easy to passively accept this erosion in their standard of living and difficult to generate the political heat that an outright cut would spark.
Though it's being openly engineered by the Federal Reserve, inflation appears to be a force nobody controls--unlike austerity which is so clearly a political decision.
Here is the Chapwood Index of inflation, which carefully measures "apples to apples" costs of essential goods and services in each city:
See Chart:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/Chapwood-inflation.jpg?itok=bg41L38f
As inflation erodes purchasing power, workers' share of the economy has declined dramatically-- a double-whammy of declining purchasing power and standard of living.
See Chart:
Workers share of National Income
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/worker-share2-19a_9.jpg?itok=AvgEeoP1
….
SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/inflation-stealth-austerity
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TECH: "WE'VE JUST HAD THE LARGEST GLOBAL UPGRADE CYCLE SINCE THE DAWN OF PERSONAL COMPUTING"
Even as there are many story lines behind the 3-day, 7% sell-off in the S&P 500, we will focus today on just one: the 11% selloff in the large cap Technology sector.
Submitted by Nicholas Colas of DataTrek
Even as there are many story lines behind the 3-day, 7% sell-off in the S&P 500, we will focus today on just one: the 11% selloff in the large cap Technology sector.
Three points on this:
#1: First, let’s look at the sector’s historical 100-trading day returns back to 1999 to get a sense of where the rally from the March 23rd, 2020 lows fits in that context.
See Chart:
S&P500 Tech Sector: 100 days rolling returns :1999 to Present
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/colas%20market_0.jpg?itok=f3EUBfpk
#2: What makes 2020 different from 2009 is that Tech’s fundamentals are ferociously strong just now even though the US/global economy is in a deep recession. As an example, look at the 5-year worldwide Google Trends data (number of searches) for the query “laptop”:
See Chart:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/colas%20notebooks.jpg?itok=VO75ooEw
#3: Finally, a few other random thoughts on Tech but with one central theme:
- The S&P 500 Committee’s decision not to include Tesla in the index just yet is about as brave a move as you’ll ever see from this group. It can only have come from a collective and committed view that TSLA is profoundly overvalued and sits on shakier fundamentals than its mega market cap indicates.
Takeaway: there is a lot going on under the surface of the current correction in Tech stocks (we didn’t even get to the Softbank options trade or retail investor buying), but to our thinking the central idea is that this sector is moving from COVID play to what it always is – a cyclical group with upside from human ingenuity.
SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/weve-just-had-largest-global-upgrade-cycle-dawn-personal-computing
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ZOLTAN POZSAR SPOTS A POSSIBLE YEAR-END FUNDING CRISIS, BUT NOT EVERYONE AGREES
"That would mean much less FX swap intermediation at J.P. Morgan going into year-end and a year-end turn much worse than what’s currently being priced by the market..."
JPMorgan's capital surcharge could gap higher from 3.5% in the first quarter by as much as 100 bps to 4.5% in the second quarter.
See Chart:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/pozsar%20sept%209%202020.png?itok=vntItMxM
How to trade it? As Hill concludes, based on his expectation of "a relatively quiet year-end", the BMO strategist recommends selling the December 2020 FRA/OIS contract, which however has already collapsed from its March wides. On the other hand, if Pozsar is right then FRA/OIS is likely to blow out, which would be especially odd in a time when the Fed has provided unlimited liquidity via both QE and unlimited repo operations.
See Chart:
FRA/ OIS
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/FRAOIS.jpg?itok=7MghLcUA
Of course, it will be ironic if despite the Fed's $7 trillion balance sheet, it is none other than JPM which demonstrates to the market how even that record liquidity is not sufficient to cover all funding needs. It will be even more ironic if it is JPMorgan that, just like during the "NOT QE" phase is the bank that prompt the next massive, multi-trillion liquidity injection which, one way or another, will push the S&P to fresh all time highs for the simple reason that the Fed will never allow the biggest US bank to fail if the opportunity cost is creating a few trillion electronic dollars with the push of a button.
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US DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambio
War mongers still profiting from fear & military blackmails.
NORTHROP GRUMMAN WINS $13.3 BILLION CONTRACT TO BUILD NEW ICBM
Arms control groups blasted the decision: “The highest probability of starting a nuclear war is a mistaken launch caused by a false alarm.”
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Disgusting evilness: Put at risk the life of the whole Humanity: real fascit
That is why Americans won’t vote Trump. We are ashamed of this President
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LOS DESENCANTOS DEL BUSINNESS COVID Antibody Test
ONE DOCTOR'S OWN PRACTICE CHARGED HIM $10,984 FOR A COVID ANTIBODY TEST
The doctor in question became so dismayed, he quit his job...
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Students : target of stupid xenophobia. Why kids has to pay for fault they didn’t do
US REVOKES CHINESE GRADUATE STUDENT VISAS ON FEARS OF RESEARCH THEFT
DHS confirms it's blocking visas for those tied
“to China’s military fusion strategy”
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RATS blame the mouse:
JPMORGAN FINDS SOME EMPLOYEES "ILLEGALLY POCKETED" COVID-RELIEF FUNDS
Of course the banks were involved.
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Privatiz of Health syst make mass vaccination a business. Why Educ has to pay effects
1000S OF CASES BUT ZERO HOSPITALIZATIONS IN COLLEGES: GOOD NEWS BUT STATES FORCE DRACONIAN LOCKDOWNS
How is this an emergency situation? If anything, the fact that there are so many cases is a blessing, because, with such a young population, these cases are a de facto vaccine, creating herd immunity without danger...
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“Was the Constitution designed to perpetuate white supremacy and protect the institutional of slavery?
The faculty would only accept “true” as the answer.
….
[ So, who trust the government is the question ]
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He won’t last… after election he will be deposed. If Trump create chaos the SC will Act
NSA CHIEF WHO OVERSAW SWEEPING DOMESTIC PHONE SURVEILLANCE JOINS AMAZON BOARD AS DIRECTOR
“Alexa, what is everyone in the world doing right now?”
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TRUMP UNVEILS LIST OF POTENTIAL SUPREME COURT PICKS, CHALLENGES BIDEN TO DO SAME
"Joe Biden has refused to release his list, perhaps because he knows the names are so extremely far-left."
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Money talks: we buy consciousness
FAUCI FOILS LATEST 'BOMBSHELL' - "TRUMP DIDN'T DISTORT ANYTHING"
Fauci just went on Fox News and said that President Trump "did not distort anything and acted immediately when he was presented the data."
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Mass vaccine = mass genocidal intention. They must go to jail to prevent it happen
AZN STOPPED VACCINE TRIAL AFTER PATIENT EXPERIENCED SERIOUS SPINAL ISSUES
"We’re very pleased that AstraZeneca has stopped their trial..."
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HOW TO FIND VALUE IN AN UPSIDE DOWN WORLD
When the euphoria of the current environment ends, cheap companies have the potential not only to limit downside risk but also to provide healthy returns when the market comes to its senses...
If we strip out the five largest companies (AAPL, AMZN, MSFT, GOOG, and GOOGL) from the “highest 30%” grouping, the market-weighted gain falls from 25.56% to 10.23%.
*The S&P 500 return differs from the average, as shown below. This analysis uses current weightings and year to date returns, whereas the index uses daily weightings and returns.
See Chart:
Market Cup
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/3-5%20%281%29_0.png?itok=AGQrxAns
….
SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/how-find-value-upside-down-world
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US-WORLD ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State socialis+K-, D rest in limbo
THE MYSTERIOUS $100 BILLION GAP IN CHINA'S PAYMENTS DATA
Some economists have been scratching their heads recently about a puzzling question: Why China’s foreign reserves aren’t growing, given a large trade surplus and strong portfolio inflows
See Chart:
Current Account of Foreign Reserves:
Possible explanations?
1. Chinese companies paying down foreign debt on hoarding dollars
- State banks building up foreign currency assets
- Foreign companies in China reducing yuan assets or taking money out of China
- Capital flight
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SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/mysterious-100-billion-gap-chinas-payments-data
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Business is business.. Politics wont affected. IF happens they will became China-Comp
US FIRMS STICKING WITH CHINA DESPITE BELIEF THAT TENSIONS WILL PERSIST FOR YEARS
"Members are concerned..."
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"OCTOBER SURPRISE" - SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST NORTH KOREA PREPARING BALLISTIC MISSILE TEST
"Similar activity has been seen in the past both for maintenance and prior to ejections tests."
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO ..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars & danger of WW3
-White House Denies DHS Whistleblower Complaint on Alleged Intel Manipulation Ordered by O'Brien
-Saudi Arabia, Bahrain Open Skies to Transit Flights from Israel
-UN Secretary-General Condemns Attack on Afghan
-North Korea’s Kim Jong-Un Considered Obama ‘A**hole’,
-New Hampshire Woman Votes Topless After Being Told Anti-Trump Shirt Not Allowed at Polling Station
-Saudi-Led Coalition Intercepts Houthi Drone Targeting Najran City
-Biden Campaign Says Washington Redskins Logo Removed From Family Pic For 'Copyright' Reasons
-White House Denies DHS Whistleblower Complaint on Alleged Intel Manipulation Ordered by O'Brien
-US Fails to Control Lebanon Because Hezbollah, Amal ‘Represent the Majority’
-Iran Begins Constr on Advanced Centrifuge Production Hall Near Natanz Nuke Site
-Global COVID-19 Death Toll Exceeds 900,000 - Johns Hopkins
-Over Half a Million US Kids Diagnosed With COVID-19 Since Pandemic Onset
-Biden Says Trump Minimizing COVID-19 Threat Cost Over 50,000 Lives
-TikTok in Discussions With US Over How to Avoid Total Sale of Application
-Trump Boasts of Nuclear Weapon ‘You Haven’t Even Seen or Heard About’ in Woodward Book
-US Has Revoked Over 1,000 Visas to Chinese Nationals Over Alleged Military Ties
-AstraZeneca Rejects Claim CV-19 Trial Was Halted Over Case of Transverse Myelitis
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