SEP 5 20 ND SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco
ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics
BMO: THE STRIKE PRICE OF THE "POWELL PUT" IS ONLY KNOWN TO THE FED... SO MARKETS MAY RETEST IT SOON
"We have no doubt another round of volatility akin to March and April would quickly bring the Fed back into play."
After the most tumultuous week in markets since the June mini crash, the week ahead will offer very little in terms of economic data to augment investors understanding of the state of the economy or the domestic consumer, although the fiscal cliff continues to bit. According to the latest BofA data, total card spending as measured by aggregated BAC credit and debit card data declined 0.7% yoy for the week ending Aug 29th, confirming any recent upward momentum has now fizzled out.
See Chart:
Daily Total Card Spending
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/card%20spending%202.jpg?itok=AZspEhWX
Worse, spending by recipients of Unemployment Insurance - which has either stopped or substantially tapered off since August 1 - has cratered, especially in home improvement, clothing and general merchandise categories.
See Chart:
The change in spending growth for UI recipients vs. all else by major sector
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/spending%20growth%20change.jpg?itok=Z8BG4a43
It is in this context of declining spending that an updated read on core-inflation will test the response of US rates to the first CPI print since the Fed unveiled its new Average Inflation Targeting framework.
More importantly, according to the BMO rates strategists, it also could mark the beginning of a troubling period for the Fed, because "in the wake of the NFP data, there was very little on the horizon that might have caused the Fed to bring forward any dovish policy action to the September 16 FOMC – with the exception of a sharp tightening in financial conditions led by a spike in equity vol." Translated: the Fed may freak out about the market's 4% drop which the following chart puts into perspective
See Chart:
S&P 500 (down)
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/SPX%209.5.jpg?itok=BvNCI9tE
To be sure, the market hasn’t exercised the Powell put in a few months, so "no time like the present", and as BMO further adds "conventional wisdom holds that it’s not the magnitude of any stock market correction that prompts monetary policymakers into action but rather the pace." In any case, just two significant back-to-back selloffs from the highs won’t be sufficient (even if circuit breakers come into play) unless of course Powell wants to repeat Bernanke's panic when he cut rates by 75bps in Jan 2008 in response not to a systemic crisis but a bad trade by Jerome Kerviel.
And speaking of the Powell Put, "Powell has made it abundantly clear that until the labor market heals and signs of inflation percolate, the FOMC will be extremely reluctant to be anything other than accommodative."
On the other hand, "where exactly the strike price for the Powell put lies is only known to those in the Eccles Building, but we have no doubt another round of volatility akin to March and April would quickly bring the Fed back into play," BMO concludes, as it hints that the market may soon retest just how low the Fed will allow stocks to drop now that the melt up is over, before Powell intervenes again.
Finally, there is also the option of increasing the balance sheet at a faster rate using the existing breakdown of purchasing in Treasuries, MBS, and corporates.
READ the full art to make better sense of this interesting approach AT:
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Another one that you may want to read:
"A MERE FLESH-WOUND" OR BEGINNING OF THE END OF THE BULL-BOUNCE?
...following the market top in March of 2000 the subsequent counter rally peaked on September 1 and the top in 1929 ended on September 3rd, as did now this rally...
Authored by Sven Henrich via NorthmanTrader.com,
Straight Talk: Bear Raid
A confluence of factors led to this week’s sell-off in markets. In the lead up to this week’s market top we saw all the classic signs: Weakening participation, highly overbought readings, vast technical extensions, historic valuations accompanied by extreme complacency and bear capitulations.
Sven henrich said:
I repeat: New highs in select indices have been highly deceiving. They were driven by a few mega cap stocks. The $XVG index suggests a border market still in a bear market. Based on that measure $SPX would be trading at 2,600 were it not for mega cap expansions in 6/7 stocks.
See Chart: twitter
See many more charts at:
SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/mere-flesh-wound-or-beginning-end-bull-bounce
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OR THIS OTHER ONE:
COULD THE DOW SEE A NEW LOW BEFORE THE END OF THE RECESSION?
...for all five (100%) of the prior recessions, The Dow reached its recession low after the seventh month of the recession.
From the findings published on August 27, 2020, in “Probability of V-Shape Recovery Low, Depression High,” the probability is 99% for the current recession to last at least one year. The findings were comprised of Deloitte’s forecasts for the US economy from 2020 through 2025. The empirical data for the US economy dates back to 1929.
SEE CHART:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfmC96A.jpg?itok=OzlGT102
….
SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/could-dow-see-new-low-end-recession
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US DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambio
THE NEXT NORMAL: IS CENTRAL-BANKISM TRANSITIONING TO FASCISM
The “Next Normal” will see the emergence of a political-economy using central-bankism to address domestic inequality and international inequality, and to use the private sector to deliver these state goals. Echoes of the past – and hopefully only echoes.
The Next Normal: What it?
“Normality is the Great Neurosis of civilization.” - Tom Robbins
SUMMARY:
· We are now moving from the “New Normal” into the realm of “The Next Normal”: can we define what our new architecture will look like?
· To do so, we look beyond economics to the historical “-isms” of political-economy
· We believe we live under capitalism: do we, as fiscal and monetary Rubicons are crossed?
· Or are we already heading for central-bankism, a post-capitalism with echoes of feudalism?
· Marxism claims it is still alive: but it looks much more central-bank capitalism
· There are unhappy parallels between aspects of our emergent political-economy and fascism
· US-China tensions are about mercantilism, but still matter for that
· We need a new political-economy in the “Next Normal”, but none provide a solution for our global trilemma, which suggests some forms of schism are inevitable
· Indeed, expect more populism, underlining why we need a political-economy ‘guide rail’
· Volatility looms as populist political-economy will naturally demand internal and external “reallocation”
THE “NEXT NORMAL”
In late 2019 we published a report titled “A Decade of… What Exactly?” which underlined how disappointing the economic erformance in the post-global financial crisis “New Normal’ era had been on almost all fronts.
It showed how the experience had been one of: lower GDP growth, lower inflation, lower wage growth, and lower productivity alongside higher inequality, higher debt, higher asset prices, high and rising political populism, and high and rising geopolitical tensions, particularly between the US and China. All of these were issues we had been flagging for years.
We concluded that the outlook for the decade of the 2020s was deeply worrying.
We had likewise already recognised earlier in the year that the socio-economic impact of Covid-19 is likely to be severe and broad-ranging enough. Indeed, so much so that the concept of “The New Normal” is already behind us; we are now moving into the realm of “The Next Normal”.
The feudal political-economy was simple. Peasants grew food and handed much of this over to their lord, who did the same to his lord, and so on up to the Crown. On the basis of this crop, monarchs were able to borrow from money-lenders. The chain was production > debt.
Under capitalism, this was reversed. Banks make loans to capitalists, who invest the funds in capital stock, produce goods, and repay the loans with the profits. The chain is debt > production.
This advance, alongside the industrial revolution, explains why growth boomed under capitalism while it had stagnated under feudalism.
SEE CHART:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/central%20bankism.jpg?itok=78efhLgk
However, with financialisation we get more debt (and higher asset prices) and yet less physical production as investment flows into financial assets and not productive capital stock (and so onwards in wages). Political-economy has been pointing this out for over a century: economics still does not understand it.
Under capitalism with a massively active central bank --“central-bankism”-- the process is taken to its extreme. We get soaring debt and soaring asset prices that are almost divorced from actual production or investment: look at the divergent trends in stocks and GDP in Q2, for example. That said, markets and the real economy are very different animals2, which is part of the broader point that is being made: all the focus is on one when ‘life is elsewhere’.
What central-bankism arguably shares with its distant ancestor of feudalism is an extractive, asset-based focus, and that those at the very top get very rich while those at the bottom of the pyramid get the opposite outcome. In both absolute terms the political-economy of this system is indeed one of reallocation - upwards.
Yet we are continuously told that central banks are pushing trillions of USD into the financial system, sending asset prices skyrocketing, to help those at the bottom of the socio-economic pyramid!
SEE CHART:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/central%20bankism%20pyramid.jpg?itok=WyONmQgY
Market mechanisms play a key role in China, but operate with over-arching “state goals”. Under central-bankism, won’t we see the same happen elsewhere?
SEE CHART:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/FASCISM.jpg?itok=FffjZEZ9
CONTINUE READING and se more charts at:
SOURCE https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/next-normal-central-bankism-transitioning-fascism
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One of the gang's leaders shouted at guests, claiming it was "time to leave" during the latest round of protests inspired by just-released bodycam footage of the killing of Daniel Prude.
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"BIPARTISAN" WASHINGTON INSIDERS REVEAL THEIR PLAN FOR CHAOS IF TRUMP WINS THE ELECTION
...the chilling 2020 election predictions being made by TIP all seem to be yet again feeding into the same, seemingly all-encompassing, technocratic agenda...
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"DEAD" VIRUS CELLS FREQUENTLY TRIGGER "FALSE POSITIVES" IN MOST COMMON COVID TEST, NEW STUDY FINDS
The team's research involved analyzing 25 studies on the widely used polymerase chain reaction test...
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US-WORLD ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State socialis+K-, D rest in limbo
Demography is destiny, they say...
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FALSE FLAG?
"IN COMPLETE SHOCK": CHINA'S LEAD CHIP MAKER DENIES PLA MILITARY TIES AS TRUMP MULLS BLACKLISTING
Chinese industry leaders recently warned of devastation: “The entire chip industry is too fragile to defend itself. We are at least 20 years behind compared to Silicon Valley...”
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ESCOBAR: INDIA IMPLODES ITS OWN NEW SILK ROAD
With rising integration among China, Iran and Pakistan, India is integrated only with its own inconsistencies...
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Exactly the way NAZI GERMAN start their nazi-fascist terrorism
AMERICA'S PRIVATE MILITIAS OF THE NINETEENTH CENTURY
The dominant shapers of public opinion would have us believe that volunteer groups of armed men must be regarded with horror.Yet it is increasingly clear that the institutions that have replaced the militias of the past still leave much to be desired.
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO ..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars & danger of WW3
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- N Y Blue Lives Matter Founder Claim: Mayor And Govnor ‘Agst Community'
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