Nueva Democracia: SEP 19 20 ND SIT EC y POL

SEP 19 20 ND SIT EC y POL

ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco

ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS

Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics

Neoliberal Economy is fake, evil .. & laughable too

NEWTON, PHYSICS, & THE MARKET BUBBLE

“Like all bubbles, it ends when the money runs out...”

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

As Sir Issac Newton once discovered, “what goes up, must come down.”

Sir Isaac Newton getting pulled into the great momentum trade of the South Sea Co., which cratered 300 years ago this month. He lost the equivalent of more than $3 million today. Newton, whose second law of motion is about the momentum of a body equaling the force acting on it, didn’t know that works for stocks too.”

Many of these new companies made outrageous, and often fraudulent, claims about their business ventures for the purpose of raising capital and boosting share prices. Here are some examples of these companies’ business proposals (History House, 1997): [More than 12 examples ]

A Speculative Mania

However, in the midst of the “mania,” things like valuation, revenue, or even viable business models didn’t matter. It was the “Fear Of Missing Out,” which sucked investors into the fray without regard for the underlying risk.

Newton’s Folly

Sir Issac Newton, the brilliant mathematician, was an early investor in South Sea Corporation. Newton quickly made a lot of money and recognized the early stages of a speculative mania. Knowing that it would eventually end badly, he liquidated his stake at a large profit.

However, after he exited, South Sea stock experienced one of the most legendary rises in history. As the bubble kept inflating, Newton allowed his emotions to overtake his previous logic and he jumped back into the shares. Unfortunately, it was near the peak.

See Chart:

South Sea Stock

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/SouthSea-Bubble.png?itok=SMIoYP-X

While surveying his losses, Newton allegedly said that he could “calculate the motions of the heavenly bodies, but not the madness of people.”

For More On The History Of Speculative Bubbles: “Devil Take The Hindmost.”

History Never Repeats, But It Rhymes

[ He present 3 slides ]

Oh, by the way, the slides above are from a 2008 presentation just one month before the Lehman crisis.

The point here is that speculative cycles are always the same.

The Speculative Cycle

Charles Kindleberger suggested that speculative manias typically commence with a “displacement” which excites speculative interest. The speculation is then reinforced by a “positive feedback” loop from rising prices.

The full cycle is shown below.

See Chart:

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/Speculative-Cycle.png?itok=0m61zSLl

The Latest Mania

Let’s go back to Andy for a moment:

“Usually, there is some source of hot air inflating stocks: either a structural anomaly that fools investors into thinking ever-rising stock prices are real or a source of capital that buys, buys, buys—proverbial ‘dumb money.’ Think of it as a giant fireplace bellows, an accordion-like contraption that pumps in fresh oxygen to keep flames growing.” – Andy Kessler

We have seen these manias repeated throughout history. [ 5 examples: 1929, 1960 & 70, 1987, 2000, 2008 ]

In 2020?

What about today? Look back at the chart of the South Sea Company above. Now, the one below.

See Chart:

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/1-41.png?itok=fZ8hHlFt

See any similarities.

Yes, that’s Tesla

However, you can’t solely blame the Federal Reserve as noted by Andy:

Long market runs have always allured investors who figure they’re smart to jump in, even if it’s late.

Everyone forgets the adage, ‘Don’t mistake brains for a bull market.'”

This Time Is Different

As stated, while no two financial manias are ever alike, the end results are always the same. [ 4 examples ]

But one of the tell-tale indications is the speculative chase of “zombie” companies which are only still alive primarily due to the Federal Reserve’s interventions.

See Chart:

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/1%20%282%29_0.jpg?itok=a7CJsBgN

Fixing The Cause Of The Crash

Recessions, or inflationary spikes are the culprits that trigger the “reversion in sentiment.”

Importantly, the “bubbles” and “busts” are never the same.

I previously quoted Bob Bronson on this point:

“A new bubble will always be different from the previous one(s). Such is since investors will only bid prices to extreme overvaluation levels if they are sure it is not repeating what led to the previous bubbles. Comparing the current extreme overvaluation to the dotcom is intellectually silly.

As an analogy, no matter how thoroughly a fatal car crash is studied, there will still be other fatal car crashes. Such is true even if we avoid all previous accident-causing mistakes.”

Most importantly, however, the financial markets always adapt to the cause of the previous “fatal crash.”

Unfortunately, that adaptation won’t prevent the next one.

Yes, this time is different.

“Like all bubbles, it ends when the money runs out.” – Andy Kessler

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SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/newton-physics-market-bubble

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TUG OF WAR ACROSS MARKETS HIDES "TRADE OF A LIFETIME"

"Right now we have massive money creation, massive fiscal stimulus, and strong social forces combining to create an inflation juggernaut."

Larry McDonald writes that "the trade of a lifetime is found in a growing tug of war across markets." He is referring to the ongoing clash - and most important topic in finance today - between inflation and deflation. As he adds, investors are focused on obvious deflation risk, "but the side effects of the $15 Trillion of fiscal and monetary spending globally are underappreciated" (it's really $21 trillion according to BofA but at that number of zeroes does it really matter).

in McDonalds' view, "the 'unexpected' we must be positioned for is Trillions in fiscal stimulus oozing into the economy after this virus has been snuffed out." This is a topic we touched on last week in "Trump Agrees With Powell: "Much Higher" Fiscal Stimulus Is Needed... And Why That Could Crash Stocks", in which we pointed out that Powell's clear invocation of more fiscal stimulus during the FOMC presser is what catalyzed the break in the market's upward momentum as tech names were furiously sold off.

See Chart:

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/ES%20china%20development%20historical_0.jpg?itok=6yholFv_

And while going into the FOMC reflation was largely "left for dead" as the sharp rebound in the QQQs following the early September swoon showed, McDonald now sees last week's outperformance of the XME Metals & Materials ETF as the first See heartbeat of a Phoenix coming back to life, "the GENESIS of a significant leg higher."

See Chart:

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/ndx%20xme.jpg?itok=74-EAEY1

To be sure the market is clearly starting to appreciate the growing double threat of a potential reflationary spillover from tens of trillions in stimulus and the Fed's "not so dovish" twist Powell didn't offer investors certainty on the balance sheet expansion policy path, which according to Bear Traps "was a shot across the bow" and "the bottom line, for big tech to command today's lofty valuations, balance sheet expansion certainty is needed from the Fed."

The result: the worst September for the Nasdaq since Q4 2018:

See Chart:

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/NQ%201%20month%20change.jpg?itok=ZYc9Slkl

However, one thing that is clear is that the market remains solidly in the deflation camp, which in turn reveals what the Bear Traps report contends is the story of the month, namely "the growth to value tremors have been revisiting with intensity, the 'quake' is coming."

This can be seen in the chart of Russell growth to value below...

See Chart:

Russell Growth vs Value vs Value

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/growth%20vs%20value.jpg?itok=eytNH0vr

Finally, in evaluating a near-term trigger, McDonald notes that "as Congress delivers the next fiscal care package, hand in hand with a vaccine cocktail coming to market in the months ahead, it will be a reflation investors delight. These two engines will be the trade's rocket fuel, propelling the investment thesis from the early to "middle innings." Months from now, Powell may look very wise in NOT offering up "certainty in balance sheet accommodation" ahead of Congress and Vaccines. He kept his powder dry."

But what if Congress fails to deliver this year as the constant bickering between Pelosi and McConnell strongly suggests? Well, then the deflation camp has another party, potentially resulting in a 10-20% drawdown. However, it is precisely that market stress that will force the classic policy response out of Capital Hill. The conclusion: "This New Deal on roids will have one anchor tenant as large scale infrastructure spending will join us early next year - next, commodities and value crush growth stocks in 2021."

….

SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/tug-war-across-markets-hides-trade-lifetime

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FROM BRILLIANT TO BRAIN-DEAD: THE RISK OF TIMING MANIC MARKETS

Growth stocks today are as expensive as they were in August of 1999

See Chart:

Submitted by Kailash Concepts,

The Hazards of being In the Grip of a Growth Mania

In This Time is Different, Carvana & Akamai and IPO Stocks are the New Staples, Kailash documented: [ 9 points. Here only the last one ]

9-Valuations of today’s new High Growth stocks are equally, if not more, overvalued than those in 2000

See Chart:

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/growth%20firms%20expensive.jpg?itok=xrwwR9UY

Here the conclusion after 9 comments & charts:

Conclusions

As documented in this paper, High Growth firms are trading at indefensible valuations. Among these Growth firms, looking for shorts in the bottom of our model finds firms that trade at slightly higher premiums based on valuation despite having ROEs, Margins, Shareholder Dilution, and ROAs that are 2x worse than the Growth firms as a whole.

Looking at Value firms that are in the top quintile of our model ranks (4th row) vs. all Value firms, the advantages are enormous. The FCF yield soars to a double-digit number, ROE flips from negative to positive 9.5%, ROAs are positive, and net debt is lower. Kailash believes now is as good a time as any to be avoiding or shorting High Growth firms and shopping for Value firms favored by our models.

….

SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/brilliant-brain-dead-risk-timing-manic-markets

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US DOMESTIC POLITICS

Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambio

FALSE STATEMENT AGAIST AOC

Hugo Adan

9/19/2020

Every day the corporate media run by Dems-Reps say that:

“AOC, Pelosi, Schumer Out in 2020? Shocking Election Prediction”

THAT IS FALSE:

AOC (Alejandra Ocacio Cortez) IS JUST THE OPPOSITE to Pelosi

& other opportunists. AOC is the young intelligent leader of

NY that will lead PEOPLES NATIONAL FRONT for peaceful REV.

Dems-Reps contradiction will explode: Trump won’t accept be

defeated by Dems’ fraud (the previous mailing votes) and

our nation won’t accept more fascism from Trump.

We can’t also accept the WW3 planned by big Corp behind Biden.

Between open dictatorship from Trump & hidden WW3 from Biden,

the 3^rd option lead by AOC will open its course.

IF election pools continue favoring Biden, Trump’ option will be

to postpone election by starting Middle East war against Iran.

Real war won’t happen but enough to postpone elections. Peace

will prevail and Trump will used to clean previous war mongerism.

The 3er option lead by AOC’ PEOPLE FRONT (will include BLM &

other rebel org. Perhaps B Sanders will join this move. But definitely

this PEOPLE FRONT will get the support of many progressive people.

And the support of Greens plus socialist Parties.

All of them will open a new course of History In US : REVOLUTION .

This REV will be peaceful: its main mean will be REFERENDUMS

across the whole Nation.

IF and only IF the republicans & democrats used violent means

to block this initiative, the National Front will responde with arms too .

AOC will be one of the main leaders in pacific Socialist Revolution.

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TOO MUCH CENTRALIZATION IS TURNING EVERYTHING INTO A POLITICAL CRISIS

Is American politics reaching a breaking point?

Authored by Porter Burkett via The Mises Institute,

The study attempts to measure “affective polarization,” defined as the extent to which citizens feel more negatively toward other political parties than their own, in nine developed countries, including the United States.

The study authors concluded that affective polarization has risen much faster and more drastically in the United States than in any of the other countries they studied (figure 1).

See Charts:

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/burkett-trends_in_affective_polarization_by_country.jpg?itok=du49l6Dj

If centralization is the cause of our problems, then decentralization is the cure.

A new era of decentralization means that neither of these things can be accomplished by federal imposition, and their proponents are not going to be happy about that. The task ahead is to demonstrate that whatever the sacrifices required to achieve more localized decision-making might be, centralization is too dangerous to continue.

…..

SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/political/too-much-centralization-turning-everything-political-crisis

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DAVID STOCKMAN: HOW THE STOCK MARKET GOT TO BE SO OUT OF TOUCH WITH REALITY

...beguiled by “stimulus” and hopium, Wall Street completely ignores the contradiction between over-the-top demand stimulus and what amounts to supply-side contraction owing to economic martial law...

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What stupid logic.. not even cause-effect relation considered

GLENN GREENWALD SHOCKS WITH EXPLANATION ON WHY MAINSTREAM MEDIA IS IGNORING ASSANGE TRIAL

"If you start from the premise that Trump is a fascist dictator who has brought Nazi tyranny to the US..."

….

Trumps is a fascist dictator: that is true: the separation of kids from migrant parents and putting them jail, plus de killing of disarmed blacks in streets, is evidence + other cases. In Assange case is freedom of press and human rights that is at stake and if we don’t defend Assange we are against such principles.

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Poor people in NY are the most affected by CV-19, not the rich

NEW YORK REPORTS MOST CASES SINCE EARLY JUNE: LIVE UPDATES

New York just reported its highest number of new cases since early June

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Why they attack AMAZON with special focus. Is Amazon anti trump?

AMAZON KEEPS SPREADING ACROSS AMERICA, PLANS 1000 WAREHOUSES IN SUBURBAN NEIGHBORHOODS

Amazon "Keeps Spreading" Across America, Plans 1000 Warehouses In Suburban Neighborhoods

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Congratulation BLM.. you faced & defeat police brutality with honor & dignity

MOSTLY NON-PEACEFUL? PRINCETON STUDY FINDS BLM RESPONSIBLE FOR 91% OF RIOTS OVER LAST 3 MONTHS

In other words, BLM was responsible for 9 out of 10 riots across the country