SEP 1 20 ND SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco
ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics
"OPTION INSANITY" LEADS TO FURIOUS MELTUP: APPLE BIGGER THAN RUSSELL, EMINI NEW RECORD HIGH
For better or worse, the market continues to be defined by AAPL, which today crossed a historic threshold when thanks to its latest 4% ramp, it surpassed the entire market cap of the Russell 2000.
See Chart:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/AAPL%20RUT_0.jpg?itok=pIWojXFU
This is how AAPL now looks compared to all the public small cap companies:
See Chart:
As discussed earlier, the chief reason for the relentless AAPL surge in recent weeks has been the so-called "option insanity" as the company's implied vol has been rising alongside the stock.
See Chart:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/aapl%20implied%20vol%202.jpg?itok=iC2qTNKX
And while the AAPL ramp accelerated, in no small part thanks to another price target increase this time from BofA, the other stock that has come to define market euphoria, Tesla, saw its rally halted after the company announced a $5BN "At the market" equity offering.
See Chart:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/AAPL%20TESLA.jpg?itok=fd1cDXTy
Yet even with today's 4.5% drop, TSLA is now back to levels last seen... yesterday
Meanwhile, due to the outsized impact of AAPL on the Nasdaq, the tech index was up more than 1% even with a second consecutive day in which decliners far outpaced advancing stocks.
See Chart:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/NASDAQ%20AD%209.1.jpg?itok=uTYzrYL-
Predictably, Nasdaq breadth continued to sink, with the number of tech companies trading below their 200DMA dropping below 50%, and just over half trading above their 50DMA.
See Chart:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/above%20dma.jpg?itok=DD0_aujL
One more chart showing what Michael Krause called the biggest bubble in history: on a dollar basis, the turnover in tech names as retail investors and delta-(un)hedged dealers flood in, is simply stunning.
See Chart:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/turnover%20per%20week.jpg?itok=ZzNlEzhR
... to a large extent stellar Markit and ISM manufacturing PMI readings which saw the New Orders surge to the highest level since 2004 (even as employment remains deep in contraction)...
See Chart:
ISM Mfg, New Orders Employment
.. this failed to spark a broad reflation wave, with yields on the 10Y Treasury sliding 3bps and declining for the 3rd day in a row.
See Chart:
10Y Treasury Yield
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/10Y%20Yield%209.1.jpg?itok=jNhMwhTh
And since breakevens actually dropped today despite the strong eco data, this means that real rates also slumped back to their post-crisis lows of -1.08%, hardly the stuff the Fed's AIT mandate wants to see.
See Chart:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/10Y%20real%20breakevens.jpg?itok=dlqQZDYB
Yet while real rates slumped to new cycle lows, gold - which has tracked real rates very closely for much of the past decade - failed to make a new high above $2,000.
See Chart:
Real Rates vs GOLD
How come? Perhaps due to expectations that the dollar is oversold and will squeeze higher, a glimpse of which we caught today when after sliding to fresh 2 year lows, the Bloomberg dollar index jumped back to green on the day shortly after the EURUSD briefly rose above 1.20
See Chart
BBG Dollar Index
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bbg%20dollar%209.1.jpg?itok=jAw7jQx_
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RECENT WAVE OF JOB LOSSES CASTS SHADOW ON RECOVERY
"Global corporations have announced more than 200,000 job cuts or buyouts in recent weeks, a worrying sign that more losses will come as furloughs implemented early in the pandemic turn into permanent layoffs."
Here are some of the largest job-cuts and or buyouts announced in the last 30 days:
SEE CHART:
Bloomberg calculates, since July 24, airline executives had cut, furloughed, or told at least 400,000 employees their jobs were in jeopardy. Last week, airlines were still cutting jobs:
- American Airlines Group Inc. said it would cut 19,000 workers after federal payroll aid expires, rounding out a 30% workforce reduction since the coronavirus pandemic began.
- United Airlines Holdings Inc. sees as many as 2,850 pilot furloughs this year without approval for additional government support.
The outlook of the airline industry reflects a recovery that resembles an "L," and recovery back to 2019 levels that could take years.
The consumer goods and retail space could be much worse off than airlines - at least one million workers have been furloughed since early April. Many of these jobs are becoming permanent layoffs, with the trend getting worse in the back half of the year. Here are some of the latest furloughs or job reductions in the industry:
- Ulta Beauty Inc. said this week it brought back 17,000 of the 33,000 employees furloughed in April. Not all of the remaining workers will be able to return this year.
- Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc. said in July it planned to cut roughly 4,000 jobs in the U.K.
- Coca Cola Co. offered early departures to 4,000 workers in North America, with more planned around the globe.
- Estee Lauder plans to shed 1,500 to 2,000 jobs worldwide, or about 3% of the workforce.
- J.C. Penney Co. is cutting its workforce during its bankruptcy proceedings, with plans to close stores and reduce its workforce by about 1,000 corporate, field management, and international positions.
- Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. will eliminate 2,800 jobs.
- L Brands Inc., which owns Victoria's Secret, is preparing to cut 15% of corporate jobs, or roughly 850 positions.
- Levi Strauss plans to eliminate 700 jobs.
Another industry plagued with recent buyouts and job cuts has been the industrial space:
- Boeing Co. is preparing to offer buyouts to employees for a second time this year, extending workforce cuts beyond the original 10% target unveiled in April.
- Raytheon slashed 8,000 jobs in its commercial aviation businesses at the end of July.
- Airbus S.E.'s CEO said early in July that a plan for 15,000 job cuts was not the worst-case scenario, and if the second wave of coronavirus were to emerge, the jet maker would need to adapt again.
The second round of layoffs is more bad news as it will only protract the recovery phase as job loss reduces consumption in an economy that is 70% consumer-based. In every recession, consumers reduce spending on entertainment.
Las Vegas was closed in March, with tens of thousands of folks furloughed. The Vegas strip reopened in June, but with limited travel to the town, many furloughed employees are now being laid off.
Bloomberg notes other job cuts in the entertainment industry:
- NBC Universal, a unit of Comcast Corp., is eliminating jobs across its broadcast and cable-television businesses, movie studios, and theme parks. The cuts may amount to 10% of its 35,000-person payroll, and the Wall Street Journal reported this month.
- AT&T Inc., whose Warner Media unit includes the Warner Bros. studio and cable channels such as HBO, CNN and TBS, has been making its own reductions.
What's worse is the continuing downturn in small businesses. About 22% of workers from small firms furloughed between March and June had been laid off in July, while 28% were still furloughed, a study by payroll and benefits firm Gusto said.
A recent rise in Americans applying for unemployment could be the result of the second round of layoffs. In August, 32 million people were receiving either state or federal unemployment benefits, with about a quarter of all American personal income derived from the government.
This all suggests permanent job losses are increasing and will result in deep economic scarring.
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WHAT WILL STOP THE GOLD BULL MARKET?
...putting it all together, the odds thus have to be that the stealth gold bull market will continue...
Markets were shocked this week to learn of a $565 million investment by the company Mr. Buffett co-founded and still runs, Berkshire Hathaway, in Barrick Gold, one of the premier bullion producers.)
As Louis Gave wrote, gold was, and still is, one standard deviation above its 200-day moving average. In plain words, it’s vulnerable to some serious profit-taking.
Unfortunately, almost all portfolios—professional or amateur—have had nearly zero participation in precious metals.
SEE CHART:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/Gold-vs-SP.png?itok=LIxMMBne
Suddenly, though, gold is front page news and it’s attracting a lot of new buyers. Thus, in addition to being extended in price, gold and all things precious metal-related seem to me uncomfortably—and uncharacteristically--crowded.
WHAT WILL STOP THE GOLD BULL MARKET?
BY LOUIS-VINCENT GAVE
For now, the market for gold and gold mining stocks tick a number of boxes:
- Both are showing strong momentum.
- Unlike tech, both markets are small enough to keep running without hitting the big numbers problem (see Have Equities Become A Bubble?).
- Neither has become a crowded trade.
- There has been no rush of secondary placements and IPOs usually seen in gold miner bull markets (as repeated capital destroyers, gold miners normally jump at the chance to push paper down the market’s throat!).
- Both assets remain a clear diversification choice for investors worried about runaway budget deficits and an unprecedented expansion of monetary aggregates globally, but especially in the US.
In short, precious metals are in a bull market.
Momentum
In short, gold is showing strong momentum despite emerging markets having broadly been dogs with fleas for a decade. Imagine if the dollar is now done rising and EMs, led by Asia, again thrive. What a tailwind that would be for gold.
See Charts:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/Gold-Momentum.png?itok=EM_Xp5W5
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Continue reading at:
SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/what-will-stop-gold-bull-market
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US DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambio
Irony: More rat-dical & violent than Trump? We demand an apology from him!
ILHAN OMAR DEMANDS APOLOGY FROM MSNBC'S JOY REID OVER "ISLAMOPHOBIC COMMENTS"
“Joy Reid must apologize on air tonight for spreading the false, dangerous myth that Muslims are inherently radical and violent.
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Against “systemic racism” .. an error that could be pay with new humane actions.
Of course, no one wants to become a riot victim, but in those cities and states that are Democrat-run, there’s a bit of a hitch: Politicians must be seen to sympathize with protesters, or they will not appear to be sufficiently outraged by “systemic racism.”
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For the British ‘libertarian’ philosopher Thomas Hobbes (1588-1679) racism & other maladies in human being’s (extreme absolutism included) are natural, especially in time of Economic & political crisis. In “Leviathan” (1651) -his main book- he wrote that in crisis’ time men became isolated, ultra-selfish, poor in ideas & creativity, nasty brutish & breaker of all social contract (laws) and became the enemy of other men like in stone age. How we arrive to this human debacle or ‘systemic chaos’? because of ultra-liberalism from the ruling class. This is the time when 2 passions became dominant and collide: “fear of death” vs “desire of more power” to restore Law & order. These 2 passions aggravate the systemic chaos & social debacle. Then, the only solution is civilian war= Revolution. Hobbes decide to scape to France at this time, even when rebels demanded his leadership, it was in France that he wrote- publish “Leviathan”. I do believe that Trump must scape from power now. After 4 year people may demand his coming back. Then he must do a magnificent retaliation: his own Leviathan. With positive human actions he must clean the past=no fascist men, no craps, no words, only libertarian-humane actions. Write: Leviathan-Revis P1
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RELATED
"Maybe that’s why he is doing poorly."
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TRUMP SPEAKS DURING DISCUSSION ON 'COMMUNITY SAFETY' IN KENOSHA
Progressives claim he's "filming the commercial"...
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US-WORLD ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State socialis+K-, D rest in limbo
HOW "SILENCE IS VIOLENCE" IS THE ULTIMATE EXPRESSION OF ENTITLEMENT
People either must conform to your values or face public condemnation and threats... In a world where silence is violence and civility is complicity, there is little room for true free speech.
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THE WORLD HAS CLEARLY CHANGED... HOW MIGHT IT UNRAVEL?
"It just seems too obvious how it’s going to end – badly. It so obvious we’re oblivious to it... Such is the way of blindingly obvious market corrections. They are just too big to see..."
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO ..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars & danger of WW3
-Maduro Says Trump Ordered His Murder, Now Search for Perpetrators Under Way
- French Trial Begins 5 Years After Charlie Hebdo Attacks
- Melania Trump Used Private Email Acct, Claims Former Adviser, Author of New Tell-All Book
- COVID-19 Live Updates: Nearly 26 Mln Infected Throughout the World
- New Norwegian Surveillance Satellite to Detect 'Invisible' Ships
- Trump Will Block DC Mayor From Removing Jefferson Memorial
- Attorney for Kenosha Shooter Lil Wood Says Twitter Locked His Account
- Eight Ven Ministers Will Resign to Run in Parliamentary Elections, Maduro Says
- Turkey Condemns US Decision to Partially Lift Embargo on Arms Supplies to Cyprus
- ‘Cold War’ Label for Modern US-China Disputes ‘Has Some Relevance’ - Pompeo
- US Will Pursue Talks With Mexico About Concerns Over Food Imports
- Maduro, Venezuelan Opposition Close to Deal on Election Participation
- US Homeland Sec, FBI Say No Cyber Attacks on Voter Registrat Databases Took Place
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