TOWARD A CLEAR VIEW OF US ECON
FUTURE
My introduction to:
DID THE
"POWELL PUT" CHANGE ANYTHING?
Hugo Adan Dec 2, 2018
IF using only S&P
500 buy/sell index.. the debacle will continue
too.. The first chart in this article ( Fed Funds Vs.
Economic Growth) suggest that the US Ec
will be worse.. but this is based
on a history line that only gives you a picture of the past.. We need more precise correlation
of Econ indicators to see real future in at least 2 years..
To measure long-term declines (by 33%) I don’t think the index S&P
500 is sufficient. I guess the Keynesian ‘Aggregate Demand’ has to be added to see the strength
vs. weakness of the GDP in 1 year or 2 (before Presid election time). I can be added other indicators like Savings
vs. Debt and Interest rates in correlation to Production Rates., as suggested
by LV Mises.. The buy/sell from S&P 500 gives a short-term view: an incomplete
picture to see the Fut of our Economy. Bloomberg is already doing this type of work
and it only show that the market (with WS indicators) is full of manipulation..
then .. insufficient. Economists need to go beyond
that; this is why we celebrate the effort done by Lance Roberts. I know he will
produce more than this.
The realm
of Econ can be changed overnight..
(world trade & dollar factor can put everything upside down.. that is why
we clap the possible deal with China) .. Once we have a clear idea of the Econ
we can think on other factors that could affect it.. geopolitics for instance
(military spend and the war paraphernalia of WW3)..
Our
history line in geo-polit is also obsolete. In this past : we took advantage of the 2 world wars.. (we can’t say
that our victory in the 2nd one was done by the bombing of Hiroshima
a Nagazaki.. the Nazis were already destroyed by the RU.. the Jewish who
survive were liberated.. one entire city with heavy nazi-army were reduce to
rubles..
Our
victory was at the level of Econ business .. like Plan Marshal .. and that was elicited
by the NEW DEALS of FDR.. he
created our bonanza en Economic.. that make possible to invest in the
reconstruction of Europe)..
That
history can’t be reproduced now if we go to WW3.. We will be smashed by the bombing of RU-China and others .. the FED
will be dissolved.. new nations will emerge from indep Regional-US- Govts.
Previous past of
Econ reconstruction after-war can’t be reprod anymore, even if we pounded R-C. MAD (mutual assured destruction) will
prevail. Those who put the carriage before the horses (la
Guerra antes de la Econ) are condemned to perish.
We have to
reconstruct our Econ first. We
have to have clear idea on post-neoliberal agenda. Our current Econ only
benefit few billonaires:, on one hand we have the specutators from WS market;
on the other hand the military indust complex who manufacture weapons and wars
abroad.
We don’t
need both types of Billionaires, we need their money, we have to expropriate
their money and gold to re-built our
Country. We need either a top-down REV (coup d’etat) or bottom up REV (million
of armed brigades) to expropiate -State by State, region by Region- those billionaires).
Whatever
comes at the level of Polit and Geo-Pol.. We need more precise correlation of
Economic indicators ( we have to
use several indexes, in addition to the S&P 500 buy/sell ) to see very clear
our real future in the coming 2 years.. before Presidential Elections.. ) The effort done by Lance
Roberts is amazing.. but he needs to continue.
…
...
SOURCE of
LR article:
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