lunes, 31 de diciembre de 2018

DEC 31 18 SIT EC y POL



DEC 31 18  SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Econ


ZERO HEDGE  ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics

US Econ in the Current world recession: US data was the most disappointing since 2008:

"It wasn't supposed to be this way..."

The world's central banks' safety harness finally gave way and one by one the world's markets started to plunge.
Global stock markets lost almost $12 trillion in 2018 - the largest market cap loss since 2008 (and second largest in history)...
See Chart:


But they said "It could never happen again" ... fortress balance sheets and all, and yet global systemically important banks collapsed in 2008.
See Chart:


No corner of the world escaped unscathed.
This was China's 2nd worst year on record (2nd to 2008).
See Chart:


The only major Asian market in the black for the year was India, where the BSE was ahead by almost 6 percent. 
See Chart:


Europe was a bloodbath with the Stoxx 600 down 13% in 2018, its biggest loss since 2008.
See Chart:


US equities looked unstoppable... until Humpty Dumpty fell off the wall.
... and December was a bloodbath (even with the last few days' manic bounce):
See Chart:


And so, this is still the worst December for US stocks since The Great Depression.
See Chart:
S&P 500 December-to-date-Performance


Gold and bonds outperformed notably in December as stocks plunged.
See Chart: 
https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/2018-12-31_8-00-47.jpg?itok=7ZE3wAWY


This is the first time since the 1970s that the S&P 500 has slumped so much when earnings growth was more than 10%.
See Chart:


So what should retail investors do? Well don't turn to the hedgies - Long-short equity fund performance in December is the worst since August 2011.
See Chart:
Equity Long-Short Hedge Founds  worse since Aug 2011


Bonds were all underwater on the year - despite a huge compression in yields over the last two months - with the short-end the worst performer on a yield basis.
See Chart:


And the yield curve collapsed further this year...(inverting in the 2s5s region)
See Chart:

And yields have a long way to fall if cyclical stocks are right.
See Chart:


And worst quarter for junk bonds since Q3 2015.
See Graph:


Meanwhile, the dollar rallied on the year to its best annual gain since 2015:
See Chart:
Bloomberg Dollar Index


While all commodities ended the year lower, gold outperformed (and WTI did not):
See Chart:


Oil suffered its first annual decline since 2015, slumping more than 20 percent in a turbulent year that saw fears of supply scarcity turn to expectations of a surplus.
“We are most likely past the peak of this long economic uptrend,” said analysts at JBC Energy GmbH in Vienna.
See Chart:  Oil Turbulence

While gold is down in 2018 in dollar terms, it appreciated against the yuan:
See Chart:


US Economic data was the most disappointing since 2008:
See Chart:

"Simply looking at the markets would suggest that the global economy is headed into recession,” said Robert Michele, chief investment officer and head of fixed income at J.P. Morgan Asset Management.
“However, while we agree the global economy is in a growth slowdown, we don’t see an impending recession,” he added, looking at the Fed to provide a policy cushion.
"Already, commentary out of the Fed suggests that it is nearing the end of a three-year journey to normalise policy."

And the market agrees that The Fed will cut rates more than hike them from here on out...
See Chart:


The question is - will the Fed's policy error reversal crash stocks further amid a total loss of confidence in central command once again?
See Chart:
Implied FED Fund Target Rate


Finally, we note with a glass of champagne inches away from our hands, this will not end well for bond bears and if bond shorts are squeezed - what happens to stocks from there?
See Chart:
Something is wrong: US long rates are too high & S&P 500 too Low
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Short News

The last time the 1s2s traded almost this negative, when it touched -10.2bps, was in October 2008, just after the government announced  it had bailed out AIG.
See Chart:
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Long/short equity Hedge Funds are on track for worst month since 2011, with equity hedged strategies down -5% MTD, on track for the worst monthly performance since August 2011.
See Chart:
….
SOURCE:
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US  DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambio


Only Trump’s Psychiatrist  can decipher his delusion of winning 2020 election 

 "She did very badly in proving that she was of Indian heritage. That didn't work out too well."
                [[ Elizabeth  Warren do not have to answer Trump’s idiocies  ]]
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[[ Here only selected part.. gop to the source below to read full article ]]

Here are the articles that you, dear readers, found most interesting in the past 365 days.
Changes within the administration did start to emerge as the year progressed, when Gary Cohn, Trump's chief economic advisor and former Goldman COO, resigned after repeated confrontations with Trump. Things only escalated from that point on as one after another prominent Trump advisor took the revolving door out of the administration, which saw the departure of Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, FBI Deputy Director Andrew McCabe and National Security Advisor HR McMaster, and which most recently parted ways with both its Attorney General, Jeff Sessions, its Chief of Staff, John Kelly and Defense Secretary, James Matthis.

See Photos:  Trump Administration Departures

Continuing on the themes from the prior year, 2018 also demonstrated how dominant the political narrative has become when it comes to finance and capital markets. For all those lamenting that relentless coverage of politics in a financial blog (which sadly also includes every tweet from Donald Trump), why finance appears to have taken a secondary role, and why the political "narrative" has taken a dominant role for financial analysts, the past year showed vividly why that is the case. After all, none other than the president rejoiced publicly at every new all time high in the S&P and, conversely, has been uncharacteristically silent during the recent sharp drawdown.

See Chart: Presidential # Fin Twit
A look at the Presidential’ Market Twits. S&P 500 Index

The reason for Trump's recent self-imposed radio silence on all things market is simple: after declaring the S&P500 a "massive bubble", Trump had pivoted to the point where he would take daily credit for the market's record highs. And, as we said last year, "eventually, the time will come for Trump to pay the piper." That time came in the fourth quarter of 2018 when the S&P, along with most other developed markets tumbled as suddenly what had worked for years, no longer worked, and the one dominant strategy of the past decade, namely "buy the dip", finally failed and was replaced with "sell the rip."

See Chart: “The end of Buy the Dip”
Average Daily SPS Return if Previous Week return was Negative

[ Geo-Economics: ]  After $16 trillion in liquidity has been conjured out of thin air by the world's central banks, and the tens of trillions of credit money created (and misallocated) by China - a country which was the world's growth dynamo for the past three decades and which is now not only rapidly slowing down but engaged in a trade war with the US (there is a saying that shooting wars usually follow trade wars) - the entire world is floating on an ocean of excess money, which for one more year almost succeeded in masking just how ugly the truth beneath the calm surface is. Now, as the Fed hiking and actively shrinking its balance sheet and the ECB set to join in just a few days (with the BOJ not too far behind), as the liquidity tide starts to come out in earnest, those swimming naked will finally be exposed, especially if as we expect, the handoff from monetary to fiscal policy is far more volatile than what the market currently prices in. 

See Chart: Central Bank Assets and Rolling 6m Change,  USD bn

Finally, and as always, we wish all our readers the best of luck in 2019, with much success in trading and every other avenue of life. We bid farewell to 2018 with our traditional and unwavering year-end promise: Zero Hedge will be there each and every day - on most occasions with a cynical smile - helping readers expose, unravel and comprehend the fallacy, fiction, fraud and farce that the system is reduced to (ab)using each and every day just to keep the grand tragicomedy going for at least one more year.
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"Their defining characteristic is a behavior, not an ideology or factional plumage. Violence is violence."   [[ naïve way of separating ‘action from ideology’ in politics  ]]
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 "It's just not right. The American people believe in the value of work - and that workers deserve to be valued..."
[[ We didn’t learn the lesson from FDR -1935:similar crisis- .. He forced the rich to stop their gluttony with his NEW DEALS.. we do the opposite now. We give them QEs, bailouts & free money.. We have to cut military expending  and give to the LABOR the help they need ]]
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"The legislation would continue existing levels of border funding without giving President Trump the new wallmoney he is seeking."

[[ I did say before “the wall is “ blind alley” un callejon sin salida. Trump has to break it with a bigger drama.. that is the adoption of a NEW ELECTORAL LAW as it happen in Ireland.  READ: Sameer Dossani   What Ireland’s Pro-Choice Referendum Teaches Us on Dem . If Trump throw the PRO-CHOICE  agenda, he will kill  the  duopoly  system that is the source of Fraud & Corruption for both Dems & Reps. There’re many easy ways of doing so. Then he can compete & even win the 2020 election  with a new party or electoral Front (Reps agst Fraud: Patria without fraud). Trump will be able to compete with the new Popular Front (Dems for Socialism). If Trump lose and socialists fail in Govt, Trump can return to power. This is a win-win situation for Trump.. a chance the he don’t have it now.. Trum has only one choice now: impeachment  and RIP. The other choice: WW3 will be the worse for our Nation and the whole humanity. MAD (mutual assured destruction will prevail) and the united FED will disappear .. secession or separatism in different regions will be the aftermath of WW3. The FASCIT Trump and his family will be hunt alive or death.   
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"Teacher pay is now 5% lower than it was in 2009"
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US-World  ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State socialis+K-, D rest in limbo

Sided? SOROS 'PERSON OF THE YEAR' INDEED - THE YEAR GLOBALISTS PUSHED PEOPLE'S PATIENCE TO THE EDGE  [[ If what he did was ‘withouit the concent of people’ he can’t be person of the year ]]

"Since 2015, the proponents of neoliberalism have been pushing aheadwith their plans for open borders and globalist agenda without the consent of the people. The last 365 days saw that destructive agenda greatly challenged..."
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[[ What?: Open their doors for ‘trade competition’ of course.. that is why China lead the World ]]

While there is still plenty of work to be done, the sound money movement continues to gain strength...
[[ Many times we openly did the reverse.. that is why we are out of competition .. We  used military power –nuke blackmail- to force our Econ proposal.. that was Ec terror: big error ]]
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO  ..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars & danger of WW3


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Olvidate  de China.. creas desconfianza en el US .. y ya nadie te cree a nivel global
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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to neo-fascist regimes & terrorist imperial chaos

REBELION

PAL        La meta de la derecha: Expulsión  Amira Hass
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ECON    Disputas en la industria del petróleo  Vijay Prashad
                Navidad en el banco central  Alejandro Nadal
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FEM       2018: Un año de lucha feminista  EdiccionDestape
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ALC        El gobierno del Frente Amplio en Uruguay  Luismi Uharte
                ARG: Milagro Sala: la justicia aún no llega  Ruben Armendáriz
                Chile  Los pasajes oscuros de la Concertación  Pepe Burgos
                Chile  la inminente evaporac de los ahorros de los trabaj   P W
                COL  
La rebeldía estudiantil contagia la pradera  MH Restrepo
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Cuba      Sobre el “marxismo GUIÓN leninismo”  Natasha Gómez
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ALAI NET

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US-Mex                  El fórceps migratorio de Trump a México  Luis Manuel Arce
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RT EN ESPAÑOL

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INFORMATION CLEARING HOUSE
Deep on the US political crisis: neofascism & internal conflicts that favor WW3


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Banishing Truth    By Chris Hedges
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more business-wars from US-NATO  allies


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DEMOCRACY NOW
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Econ


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PRESS TV
Resume of Global News described by Iranian observers..


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