DEC
22 18 SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social
+ Capit-compet in Econ
ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they
documented with graphics
There’s now
an entire generation of investment professionals around the world who’s entire
career has occurred during a period dominated by 0% interest rates; negative%
interest rates; QE and money printing; bank bailouts and sovereign debt
bailouts
The financial world we live in
today is COMPLETELY different than any other moment in time ever experienced by
anyone in the investment world.
For two
reasons.
First
over the last 38 years, long-term interest rates have steadily declined from
nearly 20% all the way to 0%. This is important, because as long-term interest
rates decline steadily – bond market returns increase steadily. This trend has
reversed, and so too will the investment experience for everyone investing in
the global bond market.
Second,
the debt super cycle borrowing binge was all enabled by unchallenged, free
wheeling governments fueled by low interest rates on borrowed money.
See Chart:
THE Creation of Asymmetrical risk
return opportunities across Bond Markets
To be clear – there’s now an entire generation of investment
professionals around the world who’s entire career (both professional and
academic) has occurred during a period dominated by:
- 0% interest rates
- negative% interest rates
- QE and money printing
- bank bailouts
- and sovereign debt bailouts
Our diagram on this page illustrates the return expectations for the bond market.
The “A” column is representative of
current global fixed income markets.
See Diagr
The upside to investing in low-risk bond strategies is
approximately 3%. Yet, as IceCap’s expectation for a crisis in sovereign debt
escalates, the expected losses will be 20% or more. We tell you with certainty
– these are the kind of odds you normally would only find in Vegas. In bond
markets today, the sellers of bonds are pulling the wool over the eyes of the
buyers of bonds.
And we’re sorry to tell you, everyone
today including mutual fund investors, target date funds, life cycle funds, and
especially pension funds are set-up for long-term losses in their fixed income
strategies. We’ll next show you why this fixed income market environment cannot
be avoided. It will happen. That’s the bad news.
Read the full presentation below
2018.12 IceCap
Global Marke... by on Scribd
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The hung
deals are equal to 14% of the $11.7 billion of loans sold in December.
See Chart:
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SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-12-22/loan-market-freezing-bank-fail-sell-16-billion-loans
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US
DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds
& corruption. Urge cambio
After two years of getting rolled by the Washington establishment, it
seems that President Trump woke up and suddenly realized, “Hey –
I’m the president! I have the legal authority to do stuff!”
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Fabricated Context of verbal violence:
"Endless war and military
expansionism has become so normalized in establishment thought that even
a slight scale-down is treated as
something abnormal and shocking..."
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The US ranked sixth on the list for most dangerous countries
for journalists, behind Afghanistan,
Syria, Mexico, Yemen, and India...
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US-WW ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol
& global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State
socialis+K-, D rest in limbo
"We’re kind of
dumbfounded by the huge sell-off in the market...The good news is the markets are closed on
Christmas..."
It's not just US stocks that are suffering. World Stock
Market Capitalization has collapsed by $18,281,024,000,000 (just over 18
trillion dollars) since the peak in January.
See Chart:
World Equity Market Capitalization
See more charts at
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SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/2018-12-22_9-56-20.jpg?itok=UdkmmzuC
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The buy side aren't the only ones struggling to
cash in on the explosive market volatility that has made this year one of the
worst for markets since the Nixon era.
Bloomberg was
quick to point out the irony in Wall Street decrying the shortage of volatility
during the QE era - and its draining effect on profits - only to struggle when
volatility finally returns.
BofA CEO
Brian Moynihan recently ditched
his optimistic outlook for Q4 profits, saying this week that he now expects
trading revenue to drop by a few percentage points. That drop has already been priced into bank shares, with the
KBW regional bank index down 27% from its highs (while an index of the biggest
US banks is down 35%).
See Chart:
Banking analysts are split on whether the Q4 volatility will
totally erode profits from earlier in the year, or whether banks will still
manage to post a slight increase in trading revenue.
Buckingham Research Group is less optimistic. It expects trading in fixed income,
currencies and commodities to be a drag on banks’ fourth-quarter markets
revenue as "widening credit spreads and flight to safety likely weighed on
market making," analyst James Mitchell wrote in a note.
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SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-12-21/banks-say-volatility-hurting-trading-revenue-not-helping
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[[ Estábamos dominados por mafias de Bancos
Centrales y grandes especuladores en el mercado neoliberal mundial (los g-Algos).. La crisis indica que perdieron la brújula..
y no saben adónde van: Perdieron control del Titanic.. quieren huir y no saben donde
ir. Eso significa que es hora de fusilar-los (galgos) y quitarles los botes
salva-vidas. ]]
"The fact that there
are so many topics on this list, and that they are so diverse, tells you
something important about the market."
30 risks to market
in 2019
Read list:
As a result of the
dominance of ‘algo’ trading, Slok argues that momentum has emerged as the most
important force in markets, something we have claimed for years. However, one
key reason why trading has become so complicated for most, and certainly for the
‘algos’, is that there is currently virtually no
momentum in the market - with the MTUM ETF which tracks momentum stocks having
its worst month and quarter since its 2013 inception - results in making any
attempt to piggyback on the market a money-losing trade.
See Chart:
What does
that mean for traders? According
to Slok, investors, or rather their computers, "are selling because stocks
are falling, not because of changes to the fundamentals." Indeed, the more
stocks fall, the more selling emerges; just this past Thursday we noted
that according to Nomura, for the first time in three years, CTAs had just
flipped net short, suggesting that any further selling would only result in
more shorting - and selling.
See Chart:
"The nature of the challenges facing the market, therefore, is
itself a type of risk, as their unquantifiability discourages investors from
buying risk assets, because they don’t know how to hedge them. We’re in an
unusually difficult situation,” Sløk said. "The fact that there are
so many topics on this list, and that they are so diverse, tells you something
important about the market."
Indeed it
does, but it also tells us that
when one is trying to explain away the bursting of the biggest ever bubble
created by central banks, it increasingly appears that
"algos" (whatever that means) will be thrown under the bus,
because we are hardly the only ones who note that it is only when the market is
dropping that Wall Street starts blaming "algorithms." When it's smooth sailing higher - as has been the case for
much of the past decade - not a single trader could be bothered with the threat
that algos pose: THE FEAR THAT THE CENTRAL BANKS NO LONGER HAVE CONTROL. If that is indeed the case, then Slok is correct: a global, and long-overdue Minsky moment will be the
biggest risk for 2019.
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"We are not reducing our efforts, we will increase our
efforts."
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" In the event
the United States breaks the treaty – I have already
mentioned this publicly and I believe it is important to state
it once again directly for this audience – we will be forced to take additional measures to strengthen our
security."
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO
..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars & danger of WW3
RELATED 1
RELATED 2
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SHOWS RT
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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to neo-fascist regimes &
terrorist imperial chaos
REBELION
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ALAI NET
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RT EN ESPAÑOL
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Entrevista a Zenaida R: "Las contradicciones son parte
inherente del desarrollo"
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INFORMATION CLEARING HOUSE
Deep on the US political crisis: neofascism & internal
conflicts that favor WW3
US Troops Out of Syria – Not Victory, In
Defeat SCF Editorial
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Trump Takes Decisive Stand Against The Military
And Congress By Moon Of
Alabama
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Giving Credit Where Credit Is Due – Trump Is
Right on Syria By Maj. Danny
Sjursen
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War in Ukraine seems imminent, withdraw from Syria brings
potential for Am- milit
I disagree: Trump face intern Econ Prob (crash & Dept)
& Polit (war kill reelect projec)
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New Great Game on the Roof of the World By Pepe Escobar Pakistan
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Is Russia Learning? By Paul Craig Roberts
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COUNTER PUNCH
Analysis on US Politics & Geopolitics
Paul Street Two
Populisms, Not One
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Jeffrey St. Clair The
Real Resistance: 20 Grassroots Groups Are Fighting Good Fight
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Dave Lindorff Trump
Does Something Right for Once
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Louis Proyect Is
This the Moment for the Working Class?
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Eric Draitser Killing
Fields of Colombia and Brazil
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FOR TUMORROW
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more
business-wars from US-NATO allies
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DEMOCRACY NOW
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social
+ Capit-compet in Econ
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PRESS TV
Resume of Global News described by Iranian observers..
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