DEC 30 18 SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social
+ Capit-compet in Econ
ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they
documented with graphics
Could 2019-21 feature a loud echo of
1926-8 (which in turn had echoes in 1987-9, 1998-9, and 2015-17)?
Submitted
by Brendan Brown, the Head of
Economic Research at Mitsubishi UFJ Securities International via Mises.org
The profound question which
transcends all this day-to-day market drama over the holidays is the nature of
the economic slowdown now occurring globally. This slowdown can be seen both
inside and outside the US. In reviewing the laboratory of history — especially
those experiments featuring severe asset inflation, unaccompanied by high
official estimates of consumer price inflation — three possible “echoes”
deserve attention in coming weeks and months. (History
echoes rather than repeats!)
Will We Learn from History — And What Will Soon Be
History?
The behavioral finance
theorists tell us that which echo sounds and which outcome occurs is more
obvious in hindsight than to anyone in real time. As Daniel Kahneman writes (in Thinking
Fast and Slow):
The core of hindsight bias is
that we believe we understand the past, which implies the future should also be
knowable; but in fact we understand the past less than
we believe we do – compelling narratives foster an illusion of inevitability; but no such story can include the myriad of
events that would have caused a different outcome .
Echoes of
Past Crises
First, could 2019-21 feature a loud echo of 1926-8 (which in turn had
echoes in 1987-9, 1998-9, and 2015-17)?
The characteristic of 1926-8 was a “Fed put” in the midst of an incipient
cool-down of asset inflation (along with a growth cycle slowdown or even onset
of mild recession) which succeeds apparently in igniting a fresh economic
rebound and extension/intensification of asset inflation for a while longer
(two years or more).
There are some similarities in
background. Several years of massive QE under the Roosevelt Administration
(1934-6) (not called such and due ostensibly to the monetization of
massive gold inflows to the US) culminated in a stock market and commodity
market bubble in 1936, to which the Fed responded by effecting a tiny rise in
interest rates while clawing back QE. Under huge political pressure the Fed
reversed these measures in early 1937; a weakening stock market seems to
reverse. But then came the Crash of late Summer and early Autumn 1937 and the
confirmed onset of the Roosevelt recession (roughly mid-1937 to mid-1938). This
was even more severe than the 1929-30 downturn. But then there was a rapid
re-bound.
On
further consideration, there are grounds for skepticism about whether the
1937-8 episode will echo loudly in the near future.
In 1937 there had been barely
three years of economic expansion. Credit bubbles and investment spending
bubbles (mal-investment) were hardly to be seen. And the monetary inflation in
the US was independent and very different from monetary conditions in Europe,
where in fact the parallel economic downturn was very mild if even present. And
of course the re-bound had much to do with military re-armament.
It is
troubling that the third possible echo — that of the Great Depression of 1930-2
— could be the most likely to occur.
The Great Depression from a US
perspective was two back-to-back recessions; first the severe recession of
autumn 1929 to mid-1931; and then the immediate onset of an even more
devastating downturn from summer 1931 to summer 1932 (then extended by the huge
uncertainty related to the incoming Roosevelt Administration and its gold
policy). It was the global credit meltdown — the unwinding of the credit bubble
of the 1920s most importantly as regards the giant lending boom into Germany —
which triggered that second recession and snuffed out a putative recovery in
mid-1931.
It is
possible to imagine such a two-stage process in the present instance.
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SHORT NEWS
With the Fed and ECB tightening liquidity, "it’s no longer about
buying every dip, it’s about selling every rally" said Mohammed El-Erian,
noting that 1,000-point daily swings in the Dow Jones is the "new
reality" for now.
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"Over time, the U.S. economy has become
horribly addicted to lower rates. There is really no place left to go now. It
is a function of policy mistakes, both monetary and fiscal over a protracted
period of time..."
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"We have revised down our US growth forecast for the first half of
2019 from 2.4% to 2%... We now see a probability-weighted 1.2 hikes in all of
2019, from 1.6 hikes previously."
See Chart:
to see more
interesting charts open
…
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If it was
Trump's intention to spike futures with his Saturday tweet updating on the
current state of US-China trade negotiations, he succeeded (at least for now).
[[ Yes ‘at least for now’ ..
because with Trump nothing is sure.. no consistency at all ]]
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"This
is very normal..."
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"...someone
from the front desk approached
her stylist with an emergency: a woman was
trying to pay for her blow-out with cash"... "She literally
brought $40.”
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US
DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds
& corruption. Urge cambio
"The science is settled"
"We’re
not going to debate climate change, the existence of it. The Earth is getting
hotter. And human activity is a major cause, period," said Todd. "We’re not going to give time to climate deniers. The science is settled, even if political
opinion is not."
Listen Video:
…
SOURCE:
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“He got
handed a [crap] sandwich the first week on the job.”
"Bone-Crushing
Hard Job": John Kelly Gives Candid Interview; Said Trump "Not Up To
Role Of President"
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"Each month, we have to stretch
his paycheck to make things work. We really don't have any savings. Many months
we go under."
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It
is the same depressing story to which Illinoisans have grown accustomed:
Population is collapsing and it's only getting worse.
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The Syria withdrawal affair is a
dramatic illustration of the fundamental quandary of the Trump presidency in
regard to ending the state of permanent war that
previous administrations created.
[[ The
most positive policy Trump did…can he sustained? ]]
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The pattern of U.S. immigration can be explained in four
major waves overall:
See Chart:
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US-W ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol &
global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State
socialis+K-, D rest in limbo
Thousands of American troop casualties and over $1
trillion later in Afghanistan...
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"The
Saudis have used their vast oil wealth to outsource the war" — NYT
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Whatever RU’business.. they
must remain loyal to Syria & help to take the Turks out of Syria
Amid unconfirmed
reports US troops are leaving Syria via the Harir Air Base in northern
Iraq.
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The talks
are focusing on boosting US exports and loosening regulations that discriminate
against US firms operating in China.
====
"Vladimir
Putin stressed that Russia-US relations are the most important factor behind
ensuring strategic stability and international security, and reaffirmed that
Russia is open to dialogue with the United States on the most extensive
agenda."
====
SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO
..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars & danger of WW3
RELATED 1
RELATED 2
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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to neo-fascist regimes &
terrorist imperial chaos
RT EN ESPAÑOL
Esto
solo lo decide Siria.. Y huele a traición Rusa su negocio oil con los Turcos. Si
ocurre RU pierde. Insisto en sacar a los Turcos de Siria.. vendieron al US las
armas RU y venderán también a Siria. Los Sirios solo dependen de la inversión que
puede hacer China. De RU recibió todo lo que puedo dar. Gracias y Adios.
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Latinoamérica y el redil atlántico la compra de elecciones fue y será siempre
negocio oligárquico
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La reconstrucción
de Siria depende solo de China: NO de ningun aliados del imperio.
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Muy posible pero podría implicar la resurrección
de podridos cadáveres insepultos: los DEMs. Lo ideal seria que Trump lance o
proponga Nueva Ley Electoral como ocurrió en Ireland: Sameer Dossani What Ireland’s Pro-Choice Referendum
Teaches Us on Dem .
Si Trump lanza la propuesta PRO-CHOICE mata el
duopolio del Fraude y Corrupción electoral en el US (Dems-Reps). EL podría ganar
las EL-2020 con un nuevo Pdo o Frente Popular. Tendria que competir con el
Frente Popular de los Socialistas. Si pierde y el socialismo fracasa, el podría
regresar al poder. It’s a win-win situation
que hoy no tiene T.
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Estos afectarían
partes de la costas de Chile y Perú, además
de otros países.. Grave la Noticia
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PRESS TV
Resume of Global News described by Iranian observers..
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