DEC
23 18 SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal
debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Econ
FELIZ NAVIDAD with good news from ND
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ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over.
Financiers know it, they documented ith graphics
New
Evidence Shows Stock Market on Verge of Collapse — Shocks Wall Street
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"Tomorrow,
the Secretary will convene a call with the President's Working Group on
financial markets, which he chairs."
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Here there are real truth and
some big lies.. find it. It’s seems Trump re-elect prop
Having
warned of higher
volatility, lower liquidity, more fragility and a general sense
of the worst is yet to come, Goldman Sachs' Economics Research team offers analternative
"glass half-full" perspective of the year ahead...
1. Markets are increasingly driven by concerns about the global
growth outlook. The structure of the recent selloff—with
lower yields and lower equity prices—suggests that investors have sharply downgraded their
growth expectations. The flattening of the yield curve—which is now inverted in
some segments—has fueled recession fears, especially in the US.
See Chart:
A Re-pricing of Growth: Cumulative
change en market factors
2. It is undeniable that the growth news has been on the softer
side. Our global CAI has slowed from almost 5% one year ago
to 3.4% in the preliminary December print, with substantial declines in most
major regions outside of the US. Moreover, the sharp tightening in our
financial conditions indices (FCI) is likely to weigh on growth next year. For
example, our US FCI is more than 100bp tighter since early October and, if
sustained, might shave up to 1pp off US growth over the next year.
Global Growth Has Slowed
See Chart:
3. But despite these negative impulses, we think the pessimism
is overstated.Although US
growth has started to moderate from the exceptionally strong pace earlier this
year, momentum remains solid with Q4 GDP growth tracking at 2.7% and our CAI at
a preliminary 2.5% in December. Moreover, there are still a number of positives
that risk getting lost in the gloom, such as a relatively high personal saving
rate, a sizable private sector financial surplus, and strong real income growth
on the back of rising wage growth and lower oil prices. Across the pond, the
German auto sector has started to recover and we expect Euro area growth to
return to above-trend growth in Q4. And the sharp drop in oil prices should
provide a welcome boost to consumers in Europe and Japan.
See Chart:
US Growth Remain Solid: Percent
change, annual rate
4- A few greenshoots are also emerging in some EM
economies. China has continued to slow (with
last week's numbers on November activity the latest disappointment), taking our
CAI down from an average of over 7% in H1 to 5.7% in November. But
Chinese policymakers are
making efforts to boost credit growth and fiscal activity, and the détente in
the trade row between the US and China has (for now) provided some relief.
Moreover, we are seeing tentative
signs that growth in EM countries outside of China are bouncing off of
the 2018 lows. In particular, the November EM ex-China reading of 4% is more
than a percentage point above the September level. This shift is consistent
with our EM economists' forecasts of moderately
higher growth in 2019. We therefore still see decent global growth of
around 3½% in 2019—that is, a stabilization at the current sequential pace with
a modest slowdown in the US and slightly faster growth elsewhere, especially
EM.
EM (ex-China)
Growth Has Picked Up
See Chart:
China Growth has picked up
5. Although
recession risk has risen somewhat with tighter financial conditions and
diminished slack, we still see limited risk of a downturn. This is because neither of the historical
causes of recession—overheating or financial imbalances—are flashing red
at the moment. Our recession model therefore
still suggests that the likelihood of a downturn over the next year is quite
low and only at its historical average in 2-3 years.
See Chart:
US Recession Risk Remain limited
6. We also do not expect a significant shift in the inflation
picture. US core inflation has softened a bit from 2.0% to
1.9%, Euro area core inflation remains stuck at 1%, and energy prices are down
sharply. But, at the same time, wage growth continues to pick up quite markedly
across advanced economies. Our analysis suggests
that we should treat the wage pickup in the US and UK as a cross-check to the
price inflation numbers, confirming that inflationary pressures are close to
target. But we find that wage growth typically leads price inflation in Europe,
suggesting that core inflation will eventually pick up, even though it might
take a while.
See Chart:
Wages Continue to Pick Up
7. The FOMC delivered the expected “dovish hike” this week,
raising the funds rate but lowering the median projection for 2019 from three
to two hikes. Chairman Powell attributed the shift largely to the
tightening in financial conditions and softer-than-expected inflation numbers.
We lowered our probabilities of
rate hikes to 30% in 2019Q1, 65% in Q2, 55% in Q3, and 55% in Q4. Our expected
value of the number of net hikes in 2019—which considers the probability of
hikes as well as a small chance of cuts—is now 1.6, down from 2.0. However,
this remains well above market pricing of 0.4 hikes in 2019.
See Chart:
The Fed Hiking Cycle is Not Over
8. ECB officials reaffirmed their baseline outlook but signalled
increased caution at last week’s meeting. Although the
Governing Council retained the “balanced” risk assessment, it indicated that
risks are moving to the downside and lowered the outlook for core inflation. A
late 2019 hike remains our base, but the path to lift-off has become narrower.
Another round of TLTROs would
be a targeted tool to avoid further weakening in Italy and we expect an
announcement next year. But a later
exit seems likely if the area-wide outlook continues to deteriorate.
See Chart:
TLTROs as a Targeted Strike
9. Progress remains uneven across the other G10 central banks. The BoJ kept
policy unchanged in all areas and the likelihood of further tweaks to yield
curve control seems remote for
now. Bank
of England officials are bystanders to Brexit, waiting for clarity on
the UK’s withdrawal from the EU. We removed a January BoC hike
from our baseline given the decline in oil prices but still see three hikes for
next year. The Riksbank hiked
for the first time in seven years, but indicated a pause until 2019H2 (we think
Q3). The RBA and RBNZ are
expected to hike in late 2019, followed by the SNB in
early 2020.
10. Recent events continue to argue in favor of our medium-term
calls for a weaker Dollar, higher US yields (led
by higher inflation pricing), and volatile but positive returns in risky assets. But pro-risk opportunities are building because we
view the market’s recession fears as exaggerated. At this point, however, it
may be too early to re-engage given the lack of a clear positive catalyst and
the likelihood of illiquid market conditions into yearend.
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SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-12-23/could-be-worse-goldmans-glass-half-full-global-outlook
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"The
lesson learnt from previous cycles is that equity markets are unlikely to see a
sustained recovery with the front end of the yield curve being inverted."
See Chart 1:
See Chart 2
See Chart 3:
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SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-12-23/jpmorgan-was-biggest-bearish-signal-almost-everyone-missed
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"Markets have moved closer to capitulation."
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"We have cautioned that low market
liquidity may prove to be an important and underappreciated
risk, analogous to excess leverage in the last cycle."
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"Now
they want out and the exit is far smaller than they’d imagined. They lay awake.
They’re not controlling the trade anymore; the trade is controlling them."
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While
Gundlach was right on bonds undergoing one of the sharpest moves higher in
recent years, the Bond King was wrong about one key aspect of the move: there has been virtually no squeezing of
shorts.
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US
DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds
& corruption. Urge cambio
"...Shanahan will assume the title of Acting Secretary of Defense
starting January 1, 2019.
Patrick has a long list of accomplishments while serving as Deputy, &previously Boeing. He will be
great!"
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It's damage
control time.
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"I
haven’t seen a Senator who loves war this much since the Star Wars Prequels"
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Nasty business .. who gives more
more the life of Central American Migrants?
Dems
already rejected $1.6 billion...
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"The
Fed’s intellectual and policy posture is so bad now that it can probably only
get better."
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Lies of our time?: some of them irrelevant distraction..
garbage for naïve people
1- WAPO BLAMES BORDER PATROL FOR DEATH OF 7-YEAR-OLD MIGRANT
2-
CNN AND THE HILL SPREAD
RETRACTED SEXUAL ASSAULT CLAIM AGAINST KAVANAUGH
3- BOSTON GLOBE CORRECTS LIZ WARREN STORY — MAKES HER LESS NATIVE
AMERICAN
4- NYT ACCUSES NIKKI HALEY OF PURCHASING EXPENSIVE CURTAINS [stupidity]
5- MEDIA STILL BLAMING REPUBLICANS FOR STEELE DOSSIER
6- NBC SAT ON INFORMATION THAT CONTRADICTED KAVANAUGH ALLEGATIONS
7- MCCLATCHY CLAIMS MUELLER HAS EVIDENCE THAT CORROBORATES PIECE OF DOSSIER
8- JIM ACOSTA SAID ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS WOULDN’T CLIMB BORDER
9- WAPO RAN KAVANAUGH STORY WITH KNOWINGLY FALSE INFORMATION
10- ANDREA MITCHELL SAYS DISGRACED FL ELECTION OFFICIAL IS A REPUBLICAN
11- WAPO FORCED TO CORRECT NIKKI HALEY MISQUOTE
12- MEDIA CLAIMS TRUMP CALLED THE FBI A ‘CANCER’
13- RACHEL
MADDOW ACCUSES WH OF EDITING PUTIN TAPE
14- NBC’S BRIAN WILLIAMS BUNGLES HIT PIECE ABOUT
TRUMP AND DOGS
15- NPR:
DONALD TRUMP JR. COMMITTED PERJURY
16- TIME Mag’s FAMILY SEPARATION COVER FEATURING
CRYING HONDURAN CHILD
17- MIC
WRITER CLAIMS RUSSIAN SPY WAS IN THE OVAL OFFICE
18- NEW YORKER PUBLISHES KAVANAUGH ACCUSATION WITH ZERO CORROB
19- DAILY BEAST
CLAIMS MIGRANTS IN CARAVAN DON’T HAVE DISEASES
20- MEDIA CLAIMS
OBAMA DIDN’T SEPARATE FAMILIES AT THE BORDER
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US-W ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol &
global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU,
Iran search for State socialis+K-, D rest in limbo
UK DIS-INTEGRITY TIME: real lies of UK
"The Skripal Case
happened to occur shortly after a massive increase in the Integrity
Initiative’s budget and activity, which itself was a small part of
a British Government decision to ramp
up a major information war against Russia..."
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"...they are doomed to
fight among themselves for the dominance. Even if Russia, Crimea,
Donbass and the whole world would suddenly vanish, the civil war in Ukraine, no longer restrained from the outside,
would only intensify..."
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“Chinese companies have little
incentive to buy U.S. crude due to the wide availability of crude
supplies today from Iran and
Russia...”
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"...there was to be an open-ended
US commitment with no attainable goals in an isolated and dangerous
part of the world where it was already playing a losing game...this is being
masked by anti-Trump rhetoric..."
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"Staying is absurd. We
did not win in 18 years and we
won't win in another 18 years..."
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War drills are dangerous.. but still drills. One mistake in
either side could start WW3
IRGC
military drills kicked off just as the USS Stennis entered the area.
[[ They
are saying: we are ready to respond.. that is all ]]
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"The
ruling, which effectively opens the
door to legalizing Sharia-based child marriages in Germany, is one of a
growing number of instances in which German courts are - wittingly or
unwittingly - promoting the establishment of a parallel Islamic legal system in the country."
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO
..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars & danger of WW3
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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to neo-fascist regimes &
terrorist imperial chaos
REBELION
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ALAI NET
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RT EN ESPAÑOL
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FOR
TOMORROW :
INFORMATION CLEARING HOUSE
Deep on the US political crisis: neofascism & internal
conflicts that favor WW3
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COUNTER PUNCH
Analysis on US Politics & Geopolitics
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more
business-wars from US-NATO allies
…
PRESS TV
Resume of Global News described by Iranian observers..
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