DEC
10 18 SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social
+ Capit-compet in Econ
ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they
documented with graphics
To see the Ec recession at world level go to last chart:
“Global systemically Important Bank
Stock Index”
US Futures show the opening
weakness, slow drift higher and ramp into the open, then dump at open not
helped by AAPL headlines (which were rescued later in the day)...
See Chart:
But breadth remains solidly negative with 63% of Nasdaq Composite
stocks lower and 66% of S&P 500 stocks falling in mid-afternoon trading.
See Chart:
S&P And Dow broke below October
lows...and bounced...
See Chart:
US Stocks dumped as Brexit headlines
accelerated and rebounded as Europe closed...
See Chart:
Bank stocks are down for the 4th day
in a row to their lowest since Sept 2017...
See Chart:
The yield curve flattened notably...
See Chart:
Inflation Breakevens collapsed
further along with crude... are we in deflation?
The Dollar surged back to last
Thursday's highs - blasting through payrolls dovish dump...
See Chart:
Commodities all drifted lower as the
dollar surged but oil was worst hit...
But longer-term, the SMART money
continues to flood out - new lows...
See Chart
And why are the world's most
systemically important banks crashing?
See Chart:
….
….
----
----
Another view at US Econ crisis:
It is always easy to embrace the dark side of
bearishness when asset prices falter. But just as “faint heart never won fair
lady”, fear is as impotent as hope when it comes
to investment strategies.
When US stocks suddenly rolled over last Tuesday, I assumed someone knew
something. . That US
markets were closed on Wednesday likely gave Tuesday’s in-the-know sellers some
sense of urgency as well.
Information asymmetry of this magnitude amplifies volatility, and all the
more so when markets are already stressed. Buyers
go on strike, fearing markets are starting to discount news that hasn’t crossed
the wire yet. Sellers want to get their trades done ASAP for the same reason.
This is not a recipe for bullish market action, and we expect more volatility
this week.
At the same time, we do want to take a few moments to play the bullish
contrarian even as US equity markets whipsaw. It is always easy to embrace the dark side of bearishness
when asset prices falter. But just as “faint heart never won fair lady”, fear
is as impotent as hope when it comes to investment strategies.
HERE ARE 6 BULLISH
ARGUMENTS TO CONSIDER:
#1. The
S&P 500 is 2% away from its 2018 lows, but has not yet made a new low for
the year. The actual
nadirs for 2018 were: 2581 on February 8th and 2582 on April 2nd. The same
no-new-lows-yet is true for the NASDAQ Composite and the S&P Small Cap 600.
Only the Russell 2000 has set a new 2018 low, and that just came on Friday.
Conclusion: even in the
current selloff, markets do not yet fully embrace the notion that trade
wars/interest rates/US economic growth are in a materially worse place than
earlier this year. That cuts both ways, to be sure, but it is a sign that some
hope remains as dry tinder for a rally.
#2. Chinese
equity markets have been stable since mid October. Both the
Shanghai Composite and Honk Kong Hang Seng are at similar levels to those when
the latest trade war concerns bubbled up at the start of Q4.
Conclusion: Asian investors
may have already discounted a worst-case scenario for the current trade war
narrative, so perhaps US stocks have done the same. The one fly in this
argument: European stocks (German DAX, French CAC 40) have recently broken to
new 2018 lows, highlighting concerns over a 2019 recession in that region.
#3. US
corporate earnings could still post a small increase in 2019. FactSet
was out with an interesting analysis on Friday on this count, using Wall Street
consensus estimates for next year. Here is their take:
- Looking at the last 20 years, they found that analysts tend to overestimate forward-year earnings by 3.5% (excluding “surprise” or cataclysmic recession in in 2001, 2008 and 2009).
- At present, Wall Street is looking for $176.51/share for the S&P 500.
- If the non-surprise/deep recession average overestimation rate comes to pass, that means the S&P should still earn $170.38, still higher than this year’s $162.42.
- Whole report here: https://www.factset.com/hubfs/Resources%20Section/Research%20Desk/Earnings%20Insight/EarningsInsight_120718.pdf
Conclusion: even with Wall
Street’s notorious penchant for optimism washed out of the numbers, 2019 may
still be a good one for corporate earnings.
#4.
Federal Reserve policy is less of a risk factor. Between Chair
Powell’s recent NY Economics Club speech and a Wall Street Journal article late
last week, the Fed is now signaling a go-slow policy for interest rates. Fed
Funds Futures now give 60% odds the Fed is on the sidelines through June 2019
after it raises rates (as expected) next week or rates even end up where they
are today. A month ago those odds were just 23%.
See Chart:
Conclusion: “don’t fight the
Fed” works both ways, so as the US central bank climbs down from a message of
higher rates that should help US/global equities. And don’t forget: we have a
press conference FOMC meeting next week…
#5.
10-Year Treasury yields no longer threaten US equity valuations. Rates here have declined from early November
highs of 3.23% to 2.86% today. Inflation expectations factored into
Inflation-Protected notes are now the lowest of 2018, signaling that this
decline in rates may have further to run.
Conclusion: lower long-term
rates help support 2019 economic growth prospects and also help push capital
into equities.
#6. The
dollar now appears to be range bound after appreciating from April to
October. The DXY Index is down 0.9% from its mid November highs of
97.54. The offshore yuan has backed away from the 7.0 level (an all time low)
of late October to 6.89 now.
Conclusion: with 37% of
S&P revenues coming from non-US sources, a stable/weaker dollar would be an
earnings tailwind for 2019.
Final
thought: these points admittedly whistle past the graveyard of trade war
concerns. Also, they are not
“catalysts” – those’re catchy headlines that move markets
like the arrest of a senior Chinese executive. But they do highlight that all is not lost just yet.
…
----
----
So much for
that dip...
See Chart:
…
----
----
US
DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds
& corruption. Urge cambio
Security issue?:
Yet another
document details experimentation with hypnotic speaking techniques to enable mind control over "large
audiences"...
----
----
Another Sec issue?
" The real currency
of the world is not gold, nor is it bureaucratic fiat, nor even raw
military force; it’s narrative
control..."
----
----
"We did not seek to create another king..."
----
----
"We suffer from too much bipartisanship
when it comes to the welfare-warfare state. This bipartisanship has resulted in a
national debt that is rapidly approaching 30 trillion dollars. This will inevitably lead to a major economic
crisis. "
----
----
US-W ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol &
global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State
socialis+K-, D rest in limbo
...it’s impossible to guarantee that there would be
no flight risk should the court grant her request.
----
----
The aim is peace, not war. It is set by Laws of peaceful
coexistence: we must visited
[[
El prob de la
co-existencia pacifica entre diff bloques pol no se resuelve con wars. Despues
de las 2 guerras mundiales hubo tratados y leyes que se necesit actualizar ]]
"If you fight a war with no guns you’re going to lose. And they don’t have the guns"...
for now. [ esta
logic de Guerra no tiene sent, no la tuvo ni la tendrá]]
----
----
La victoria
del pueblo es inminente, hay que sacarlo para que sea V contundente
Will
use "all means" necessary
to restore calm...
[ Hay que sacarlo, eso dará calma y servirá de ejemplo el mundo entero. La
calma con una fiera en el Gob .. no existe. Urge Gob de transición nominado por
Corte Suprema. Dejar la manzana podrida en el cesto, no tiene sentido ]
----
----
Nuestro
despliegue de armas alrededor de RU-Chi es mil veces mayor que esto
Maduro
called Russia a “brother country”...
----
----
"What
these two lacunae tell us is something important: that Mr Trump’s
presidency has reached a key point of inflection – the end of the beginning, or
perhaps even the beginning of the end?"
----
----
SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n
GEO-ECO ..Focus on neoliberal expansion
via wars & danger of WW3
RELATED
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
NOTICIAS
IN SPANISH
Lat Am
search f alternatives to neo-fascist regimes & terrorist imperial chaos
REBELION
----
----
ALC R Zibechi Saldo negat de gob “progres” y la presid de Mé
Socialismo y cuarta revolución industrial Luis
Bonilla-M
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
Globaliz y nazi-nacionalismo de Trump se
contradicen
----
----
----
----
BRA Brasil se borra? André Moreira y Andrés
Ferrari
----
----
----
----
----
Son
opuestos.. uno de los dos desaparece al otro
----
----
----
Cuba G
Valdés: "La lucha se construye en otro lugar y con
otras reglas"
----
----
ALAI NET
----
Los neo-nazis US-UE levantan esa bander y no
son tonteria
Son real amenaza a Paz mundial. . la chispa del WW3 (Ukra) Los alentó
McCain, Sen USA de ultra-derecha y hoy Trump
----
----
RT EN
ESPAÑOL
Hay relac dialect entre 1 TODO orgánico
(socio-polit: capaz de auto Desarrollo) y las PARTES. Si una parte clave se separa del todo por servir sus
propios intereses, el todo (UK) desaparece (Irlanda no necesita de esa unión,
se separa también, ya lo dijeron). Aquella pretendida auto-suficiencia de
Londres y May han liquidado los remanentes de esa Unidad. Solo les queda la
INTEGRAC a la UE (dependencia) y/o total AUTONO (sin la UK). La UE no confía en
ellos, tampoco las partes de UK.. no hay camino de regreso .. la autonomia inglesa es la unica opción. Intentaran re-inventar el UK
pero el divorcio ya se dio y la reconciliacion seria efímera y triste para
ambos, a menos que la Mai renuncie o muera (o la hagan renunciar como se quiere
hacer con Trump aquí).
----
----
----
La sucesora de Merkel es AKK:
Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer. Age
33. Madre: 3 hijos. Licen en Der
y Cs Polit. Gano el CDU Pdo De-Cri
Ahora tiene que lidiar para
formar Pdo de Gob: es conserv y fit ins
----
----
----
----
----
INFORMATION CLEARING HOUSE
Deep on the US political crisis: neofascism & internal
conflicts that favor WW3
Trump's International Anti-Iran Coalition
it's Falling Apart By Trita
Parsi
----
----
Truth and Free Speech Are Being Taken Away
From Us By P Craig Roberts
The New Hate Speech is dominant. The attack on Asange: arrow
that kill Fred
----
The Heresy of White Christianity By Chris Hedges
The truly stand with oppressed people is to treat them as
oppressed
----
His latest’ book was “America’s
Deadliest Export” : he doct atrocities of US wars abr
----
----
COUNTER PUNCH
Analysis on US Politics & Geopolitics
JR. Pauwels Foreign
Interventions in Revolutionary Russia
----
Richard Klin The
Disasters of War
----
----
Jeffrey St. Clair Cancer
as Weapon: Poppy Bush’s Radioactive War on Iraq
----
----
GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more
business-wars from US-NATO allies
----
----
----
----
----
DEMOCRACY NOW
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social
+ Capit-compet in Econ
----
----
----
----
PRESS TV
Resume of Global News described by Iranian observers..
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
----
===
No hay comentarios:
Publicar un comentario